Table Paper Topic: Climate Change

Table Paper Topic: Climate Change Table Cadet Chair: Vincent Hale Table Paper Author: Captain Aaron Feudo, Department of Social Sciences, USMA There is overwhelming consensus among publishing climate scientists that humans are causing global warming. 1 While there is some argument on the exact percentage of which scientists agree, as well as to the level of danger the world faces, there is a common understanding that human activities are a significant contributing factor. This relationship has been established through continuing research since 1967, originating with Manabe and Wetherald s article identifying the relationship between CO2 in the atmosphere and global temperature. 2 Since 1895, the average U.S. temperature has increased by 1.3 to 1.9 degrees Fahrenheit, most of which has occurred since 1970. 3 Compelling evidence suggests that temperatures will continue to rise if we continue on our current industrial and energy consumption trajectories. There are a number of significant effects linked to increased global temperature. Scientists predict more heavy precipitation events in some areas while more droughts and heat waves in others. These weather events will increase in intensity, duration, and frequency. Less ice in the Arctic Ocean and warmer seawater over the next century is expected to increase the global sea level as well, impacting coastal regions. These changes also negatively affect human health by increasing exposure to waterborne diseases, reducing water and air quality, and diminishing the security of food supplies. 4 Discussion. Climate change will significantly impact millions of people across the world, mostly in developing nations. These aggrieved populations will face significant geological and health impacts, and their states do not have the capacity to protect them. As the world s leading power, America s response to climate change has varied based on domestic politics. The current position of the United States vis-à-vis global warming places already exposed global populations to further plight. There are two significant impacts to aggrieved world populations: Impacts to Coastal Inhabitants. Recent studies show that climate change will have a significant effect on the average sea level. In the next 80 years, some predict that between 147 and 216 million people will live below sea level or at regular flood levels. 5 This will cause either a dramatic population shift as these coastal inhabitants relocate or a significant financial burden in infrastructure to prevent catastrophic flooding. While countries like the United States or the Netherlands may be able to afford such projects, less developed countries are not able to do so. 1 John Cook et al, Consensus on Consensus: A Synthesis of Consensus Estimates on Human-Caused Global Warming. Environmental Research Letters 1-2. 2 Syukuro Wetherald and Richard T. Manabe, Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative Humidity. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 241-242. 3 Jerry M. Melillo, Terese Richmond, and Gary W. Yohe, Eds. Highlights of Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. (Washington DC: US Global Change Research Program), 5. 4 Melillo 9. 5 Gregor Aisch, David Leonhardt, and Kevin Quealy. Flooding Risk from Climate Change, Country by Country. New York Times, 23 September 2014. Page 1 of 5

These countries are generally poorer and do not have the international influence to garner support. Without the means to protect themselves, the only hope lies in a global solution. Impacts to Groundwater. Scientists identify a high probability of impacts to ground water reserves across the world, including the United States. Groundwater supplies the drinking water to 50% of the United States and over 99% of rural populations. Changing climates can result in less available water or more contamination of current water supplies. While waterborne diseases present a very small risk in developed countries, they are prevalent in developing nations. Hundreds of millions of people become sick due to unclean water every year, with almost a million dying from diarrhea alone. Climate scientists expect that increasing temperatures and droughts will reduce the recharge rates of aquifers and other groundwater collection points 6. While in the short term ice-melt may reduce the impact, reduced long-term recharge rates will not sustain populations. As recharge rates decrease, the amount of ground water that is not contaminated in part by these climate changes will also decrease. This could bring about increased number of global waterborne illnesses and associated fatalities. Developed nations may be able to prevent these catastrophes through health care systems and infrastructure, but developing nations will continue to suffer at greater rates. There are two ways in which the United States has forgotten these populations that will be most affected by climate change: Inconsistent Domestic Policies on Climate Change. The United States has not consistently worked to prevent climate change. This is most visible in the recent changes to the National Climate Advisory Committee and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). In 2017, the Committee s term expired and was not renewed by the current administration. 7 This Committee provided expert analysis to the Climate Assessment Report. Letting the Committee s term expire minimized the focus and priority of scientific expertise in how the U.S. Government addresses climate change. In addition to dissolving this committee, the current administration proposed significant budget cuts of 31% for FY2018 for the EPA. 8 Such drastic cuts can signal to both the American people and the world that the EPA is no longer a priority. This signal is only amplified by the decision to nominate Scott Pruitt, the former Attorney General of Oklahoma, as administrator of the EPA. As Attorney General, Pruitt sued the EPA 14 times, 13 of which included energy industry companies as associated parties, all of which had donated to Administrator Pruitt s campaigns either directly or through political action committees. 9 In addition to litigation, Administrator Pruitt also supports the current administration s proposed budget, the first head of the EPA to support such a drastic cut. 10 When many look to the EPA as the governmental arm working to fix issues such as climate change, appointment of leadership 6 Melillo 9. 7 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Advisory Committee for the Sustained National Climate Assessment. 2017. 1 September 2017. 8 Environmental Protection Agency, EPA s Budget and Spending. 29 August 2017. 9 New York Times, Pruitt v. EPA: 14 Challenges of EPA Rules by the Oklahoma Attorney General. 14 January 2017. 10 Brady Dennis, EPA Head Defends White House s Plan for Massive Cuts to his Agency. Washington Post. 15 June 2017. Page 2 of 5

who say and act in contradiction to the EPA s own research, implies that its mission to protect the environment has been all but forgotten by the United States. US Withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accords. 196 nations signed a pact on December 12, 2015 to limit the rise of global temperatures by adopting green energy initiatives and reducing emissions. 11 While non-binding, overwhelming global participation was a positive sign for those concerned about climate change, both in commitment to reduce emissions and in the acknowledgement that climate change was both a real and urgent danger. In a clear departure from previous policy, however, President Trump withdrew from the Paris Accords on June 1 st, 2017. Since the United States is the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, this decision drew a clear divide between the United States and the rest of the world. Citing the accords as a threat to the US economy, President Trump asserted that not only was it not in the best interests of the nation to work with the international community to prevent global warming, but that doing so would have detrimental effects on Americans. 3. Questions in Considering Policy Recommendations. While these issues have divided the United States on its role in climate change and left many proponents of the issue feeling forgotten, there are two questions that should be answered prior to recommending any policy actions: Would increased government oversight have a significant impact on the global climate? While the argument over climate change has become a battle over reducing emissions in American industry, it is possible that increased oversight and regulation of domestic emissions may not make a significant contribution to the increasing global temperature. Some believe that when firms are faced with increasing environmental regulations, they invest and produce more in foreign countries with less stringent regulations instead of reducing their emissions domestically. This Pollution Havens Hypothesis states that it is possible dirty industries, those that cause heavy pollution, transfer the burden of pollution from industrialized nations to developing nations. 12 While there is mixed consensus on this, there is a possibility that the regulations the current administration opposes could have a negative short term impact on US industries while not providing a significant positive long term impact on the environment. Is global participation important to combatting climate change? While President Trump s decision to withdraw from the Paris Accord was seen as a shock to global cooperation in reducing global warming, it was not unprecedented. In 1998, President Clinton signed the Kyoto Protocol, another international summit aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but it was never ratified by the US Senate. Despite not entering this treaty, US greenhouse gas emission have still declined since 1998. 13 It is important to note that these treaties are voluntary, with countries placing restrictions on themselves. It is also difficult to determine if emissions reductions are caused by these treaties or if the countries would have simply reduced their emissions anyway. In addition, self-reporting from countries could result in these summits 11 National Public Radio. So What Exactly is in the Paris Climate Accord? 1 June 2017. 12 Matthew A. Cole, Trade, the Pollution Havens Hypothesis, and the Environmental Kuznets Curve: Examining the Linkage. Environmental Research Letters 4. 13 Environmental Protection Agency. Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions. 14 April 2017. Page 3 of 5

becoming more of a public display of image-burnishing instead of actual progress. China, for example, has been underreporting coal consumption and generally misrepresenting the environmental progress it has made as the world s leading emitter of greenhouse gases. 14 While a public commitment to preventing climate change is important, it is unclear precisely how effective international treaties like the Kyoto Protocol or Paris Accords truly are. Works Cited and Recommended Readings: Environmental Protection Agency. Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions. 14 April 2017. <https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions>. 1 September 2017. Aisch, Gregor, David Leonhardt, and Kevin Quealy. "Flooding Risk from Climate Change, Country by Country." New York Times 23 September 2014. <https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/upshot/flooding-risk-from-climate-change-countryby-country.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=homepage&version=hpsum&module=secondcolumn-region&region=top-news&wt.nav=top-news&abt=0002&abg=1>. Buckley, Chris. "China Burns Much More Coal than Reported, Complicating Climate Talks." New York Times 3 November 2015. <https://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/04/world/asia/chinaburns-much-more-coal-than-reported-complicating-climate-talks.html?mcubz=3>. Cole, Matthew A. "Trade, the Pollution Havens Hypothesis, and the Environmental Kuznets Curve: Examining the Linkage." Ecological Economics (2004): 71-81. Cook et al, John. "Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming." Environmental Research Letters (2016): 1-7. Dennis, Brady. "EPA Head Defends White House's Plan for Massive Cuts to his Agency." Washington Post 15 June 2017. 1 September 2017. Environmental Protection Agency. EPA's Budget and Spending. 29 August 2017. <https://www.epa.gov/planandbudget/budget>. 1 September 2017. Melillo, Jerry M., Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and Gary W. Yohe, Eds. Highlights of Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2014. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Advisory Committee for the Sustained National Climate Assessment. 2017. <http://sncaadvisorycommittee.noaa.gov/>. 1 September 2017. National Public Radio. So What Exactly is in the Paris Climate Accord? 1 June 2017. <http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/06/01/531048986/so-what-exactly-is-in-theparis-climate-accord>. 1 September 2017. 14 Chris Buckley, China Burns Much More Coal than Reported, Complicating Climate Talks. New York Times. 3 November 2015. Page 4 of 5

New York Times. Pruitt v. EPA: 14 Challenges of EPA Rules by the Oklahoma Attorney General. 14 January 2017. <https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/01/14/us/politics/document-pruitt-v-epa-a- Compilation-of-Oklahoma-14.html?mcubz=3>. 1 September 2017. Wetherald, Syukuro Manabe and Richard T. "Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative Humidity." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences (1967): 241-259. Page 5 of 5