Clive Brown EBLEX
p per kg dw 380 370 360 350 340 330 320 310 300 2010 2011 290 280 2012 270 260 250 J F M Source: AHDB/EBLEX A M J J A S O N D
Average Weekly kill ( 000 head) 46 44 2012/11-7% 2010 2011 2012 42 40 38 36 34 Source: Defra Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
% change 4.0 2.0 0.0 3.9 2011 2012 Steers Heifers Young bulls Overall 1.7 0.9-2.0-4.0-6.0-5.1-8.0-10.0-9.3-8.6-8.5-7.2 Source: Defra
Average Weekly kill 000 head 16 15 2010 2011 2012 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Defra
Jan Nov 2012 19% y/y Source: GTIS
Jan Nov 2012 2% y/y Source: GTIS
Estimated volume sales in GB (tonnes per 4 week period) 31,000 29,000 27,000 25,000 23,000 21,000 19,000 17,000 15,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 27-Jan 23-Mar 18-May 13-Jul 07-Sep 02-Nov 28-Dec 22-Feb 19-Apr 14-Jun 09-Aug 04-Oct 29-Nov 24-Jan 21-Mar 16-May 11-Jul 05-Sep 31-Oct 26-Dec 22-Feb 17-Apr 12-Jun 07-Aug 02-Oct 27-Nov 22-Jan 18-Mar 13-May 08-Jul 02-Sep 28-Oct 23-Dec Source: Kantar Worldpanel
000 head 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 2,339 Dairy Cows 2012 Dairy -1% Beef - 2% 1,900 1,800 1,783 Beef Cows 1,800 1,700 1,642 1,600 1,500 2013(f) 2012(f) 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 Source: Defra December Survey & Cattle Tracing System (from 2005)
Head 11,000 9,000 7,000 5,000 3,000 1,000-1,000-3,000-5,000 Dairy Females -7,000 Dairy Males -9,000 Beef Females -11,000-13,000 Beef Males -15,000 Jan-09 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-10 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-11 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-12 March May July Sept Source: BCMS
Under 30 months cattle population change on year July 2012 Head 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0-5,000-10,000-15,000-20,000-25,000-30,000-35,000 under 6 6-12 12-24 24-30 +10,180 +7,470 +4,867 Dairy female Beef female Dairy male Beef male
000 head Source: Defra & AHDB Market Intelligence forecasts
000 head Source: Defra
000 tonnes * * Introduction of over thirty month cattle
2010 2011 2012(f) 2013(f) 000 tonnes Production 908 935 886 895 Imports 397 381 392 411 (Fresh/frozen) (295) (291) (302) (315) (Processed) (103) (90) (91) (96) Exports 137 174 140 143 Supplies available 1,168 1,142 1,138 1,148 Figures may not add to totals due to rounding *Trade figures now include processed meat
EU beef and veal production forecast -5% in 2012 First half of the year Italy -5% France -5% Ireland -12% UK -7% Forecast for 2013-0.5% but Ireland +8%
EU male cattle prices per 100kg 450 435 420 405 390 375 360 345 330 315 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Germany (YB) France (YB) Italy (YB) Ireland (Steers) UK (Steers) Source: EU Commission
Clive Brown Senior Regional Manager
Sheepmeat Trade Flows Flows in '000 t cwe 5-10 10-25 25-50 50-75 75-100 100-200 > 200 Red arrow: decrease forecast in n+1 Black arrow: no significant change Blue arrow: increase forecast in n+1
p per kg carcase 580 530 480 2010 2011 2012 430 380 330 280 J F M A M J J A S O N D Source: EBLEX/AHDB Market Intelligence Weeks
GB LW Finished Lamb Prices p per kg liveweight 280 260 240 2010 2011 2012 220 200 180 160 140 J F M A M J J A S O N D Source: EBLEX/AHDB Market Intelligence Weeks
Source: Yahoo!
UK Lamb Slaughterings Average weekly kill ( 000 head) 330 300 270 240 210 2011 2012 180 150 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source : Defra 2012 YTD total = 10.9 million head -5% y-o-y
UK Ewe and Ram Slaughterings Average weekly ( 000 head) 50 46 42 38 34 30 2010 2011 2012 26 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source : Defra YTD Total = 1.69 million head down 9% y-o-y
UK Breeding flock trends million head 21 20 19 18 17 16 Breeding flock Y-o-Y % change 2008* 13.8m -6.8% 2009 13.84m n/c 2010 13.86m n/c 2011 14.21m +2.5% 2012 f 14.80m +4.2% 2013 f 15.10m +2.0% 15 14 13 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Source: Defra December Survey *Actual figures from 2008 onwards derived using sheep and goat survey
000 head Forecast lamb supply 2011 2012 12/11 2013 Jan-Mar 2,659 2,582-3% 2,712 Apr-Jun 2,529 2,491-2% 2,664 Jul-Sep 3,579 3,239-9% 3,621 Oct-Dec 3,704 3,601-3% 3,692 Cal Year 12,462 11,911-4% 12,669
UK Frs/Frz Mutton + Lamb Exports Jan - Oct 000 tonnes product weight Exports in 2011 up 11%, in 2012 YTD down 7% Source: GTIS
000 tonnes product weight Sheep meat exports to Non-EU countries Jan-Oct Non-EU volume = 8,400 tonnes (sw) Up 89% on 2011 levels (up 228% on 2010) Account for 12% of all sheep meat exports Other markets include Switzerland, Afghanistan, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, The Philippines, Canada, UAE, Oman Source: GTIS
CHINA Increasing wealth, population, demand for protein Total meat consumption currently twice that of US Consumes >25% of global meat production 50% of worlds pigs are in China Consumes 52MT pork Supply tight resulting in price rises- pork up 25% y-o-y- headline news and protesting Appetite for beef, lamb and 5 th quarter material Leather- GB 11m sheepskins & 800,000 hides
450 250 400 350 Production Total exports Prices 200 300 000 tonnes (cwe) 250 200 150 150 100 p/kg lw 100 50 50 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: DEFRA/AHDB/HMRC 0
000 tonnes 100 85 87 89 99 93 102 97 109 75 61 76 74 71 50 30 25 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 f 2012 f 2013 f Source: Defra/GTIS 2013 projected to be highest export level since 1999 CWE and Excluding processed sheep meat
000 tonnes product weight UK Frs/Frz Mutton + Lamb Imports Jan - Oct Imports in 2011 down 12%, in 2012 YTD - down 7% Source: GTIS
tonnes tonnes 15000 12000 UK Fresh/Frozen Monthly Import Profile 2010 2011 2012 August recorded 1 st y-o-y rise of 2012 October volumes up 27% on the year 9000 6000 3000 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D Source: GTIS 2011 12% 2012 ytd -7%
4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 New Zealand Monthly Export Lamb Slaughter ('000 head) 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Source: Statistics New Zealand
000 tonnes carcase weight - Fresh/Frozen 150 125 100 123 106 115 127 132 124 129 128 127 133 119 102 98 101 75 50 25 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 f 2013 f Source: Defra/GTIS CWE and Excluding processed sheep meat
UK Sheep Meat Usage - 2011 Total UK production 14.0 million sheep = 277,000 tonnes 56 % of UK production 34 10 Retailers Exports Foodservice
GB retail lamb sales - volume Estimated volume sales in GB (tonnes per 4 week period) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 0 25-Jan 19-Apr 12-Jul 04-Oct 27-Dec 21-Mar 13-Jun 05-Sep 28-Nov 22-Feb 15-May 07-Aug 30-Oct 22-Jan 15-Apr 08-Jul 30-Sep Source: Kantar Worldpanel
Good news + Bad News Consumer attitudes to eating lamb Positives & negatives Is tasty Good source of iron Good source of protein Is easy to cook with Should be eaten in moderation Is versatile / good for a variety of dishes Is suitable for any day of the week Can be fatty Is good for you Good source of B vitamins Good source of zinc Good source of vitamin D Is not good for you Good source of Omega 3 fatty acids Beef (%) Lamb (%) Base: Total Sample (n=500)
GB retail lamb sales - volume Estimated volume sales in GB (moving annual total) 110000 105000 100000 95000 90000 85000 80000 75000 70000 65000 60000 29-Jan-06 13-Aug-06 25-Feb-07 2008 down 4.4% 2009 down 7.8% 2010 down 9.5% 2011 down 18.9 % 2012 ytd up 6.2% 09-Sep-07 23-Mar-08 05-Oct-08 19-Apr-09 01-Nov-09 16-May-10 28-Nov-11 12-Jun-11 25-Dec-12 08-Jul-12 52 weeks ending Source: Kantar Worldpanel
Retail price movements 2011 to March 2012 130 January 2011 = 100 120 110 100 90 lamb beef pork poultr y
GB retail lamb sales - Value Estimated Value sales in GB (moving annual total) 760,000 660,000 560,000 460,000 360,000 260,000 So while volumes have fallen considerably, consumer spend on lamb has remained comparatively stable 160,000 60,000 27-Jan-08 10-Aug-08 22-Feb-09 06-Sep-09 21-Mar-10 03-Oct-11 17-Apr-11 30-Oct-11 13-May-12 25-Nov-12 Source: Kantar Worldpanel 52 weeks ending
Halal 2 million Muslims in UK 6 million non Muslim Halal UK consumers 25% of UK lamb consumption? Big opportunities in EU and beyond Strong player in cull ewe market
000 tonnes 353 353 373 368 372 383 368 345 306 290 277 286 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 f 2013 f Source: MLC/AHDB Market Intelligence
Lamb Plan A. Lamb mince Build a market for lamb mince- meal solutions, fast food, foodservice, consumer education B. Forequarter cuts New ideas, new cuts educating the consumer (midweek meal options). C. Prime lamb cuts - Enhance the consumer market proposition for Lamb, better trimmed, better prepared QSM Lamb products, better consumer perception! Better value! 50
Internet and TV still key media to drive new recipe inspiration to wide audiences Source: Millward Brown Beef and lamb tracker
EU supplies in the next 12 months
(000 tonnes cwe) 2010 2011 2012 (e) % change 2013 (f) EU home production 976 991 969-2 957 UK 276 289 276-4 293 Spain 142 142 132-4 N/A France 111 116 114-2 -2 Ireland 48 48 50 4 51 Germany 40 42 41-3 39 Source: European Commission/ AHDB Market Intelligence
000 head Tonnes 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 Total sheep vs lamb production Total Sheep Lamb production 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Beef + lamb New Zealand, Statistics NZ
000 head Tonnes 190000 170000 150000 130000 110000 90000 70000 50000 Total sheep vs lamb production Total Sheep Lamb production 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 Source: M LA, ABS
Global Supplies in next 12 months slight rebuilding of flock, considerably better conditions and improved lambing rate all contribute to increased lamb numbers similar position to New Zealand results in increased numbers of lambs
Global sheepmeat production & consumption 000 tonnes 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Production Consumption 2006-08 2009-11 2012-17 2018 Source: OECD-FAO
000 tonnes 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 f 2013 f Production 326 307 276 289 276 293 Imports 132 137 120 104 99 102 Exports 89 99 92 103 98 109 Supplies available 368 345 304 290 277 286 Figures may not add to totals due to rounding *Trade figures now include processed meat