Can future energy needs be met through more integrated infrastructures? Nebojša Nakićenović International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx Technische Universität Wien xx naki@iiasa.ac.at Brainstorming Workshop on Transporting Tens of Gigawatts of Green Power to the Market, Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies Kleist Villa, Potsdam 12-13 May 2011
Education 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 Nakicenovic Source: Lutz, 2007 #2 2011
Democratization 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 Nakicenovic Source: Modelski, 2002 #3 2011
Urbanization 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 Nakicenovic Source: Grübler, 2007 #4 2011
Urban and Rural Population Projections (in Millions: GEA-H, GEA-M, GEA-L and UN WUP, 2010) 9000 6000 3000 0 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 World.GEA2H.urb World.GEA2H.rur World.GEA2M.urb World.GEA_M.rur World.GEA2L.urb World.GEA_L.rur World.UN.urb World.UN.rur World.HIST.urb World.HIST.rur
City Hierarchies (Rank Size) 100 2 Chinese Sea Population (Million) 1 10 0 1-1.1 Tokyo London Peking Baghdad Peking AD 900 Hangchow -2.01 1 10 100 1000-1 0 1 2 3 Rank Source: Gruebler et al, 2009
City Hierarchies (Rank Size) 100 2 Chinese Sea Population (Million) 1 10 0 1-1.1 Tokyo London Peking Baghdad Peking Hangchow AD 1250.01-2 1 10 100 1000-1 0 1 2 3 Rank Source: Gruebler et al, 2009
City Hierarchies (Rank Size) 100 2 Chinese Sea Population (Million) 1 10 0 1-1.1 Tokyo London Peking Baghdad Peking AD 900 Hangchow AD 1500-2.01 1 10 100 1000-1 0 1 2 3 Rank Source: Gruebler et al, 2009
City Hierarchies (Rank Size) 100 2 Chinese Sea Population (Million) 1 10 0 1-1.1 Tokyo London Peking Baghdad Constantinople Peking AD 900 AD 1700 Hangchow -2.01 1 10 100 1000-1 0 1 2 3 Rank Source: Gruebler et al, 2009
City Hierarchies (Rank Size) 100 2 Chinese Sea Population (Million) 1 10 0 1-1.1 Tokyo London Peking Baghdad AD 1800 Peking AD 900 Hangchow.01-2 1 10 100 1000-1 0 1 2 3 Rank Source: Gruebler et al, 2009
City Hierarchies (Rank Size) 100 2 Chinese Sea Population (Million) 1 10 0 1-1.1 Tokyo London AD 1900 Peking Baghdad Peking AD 900 Hangchow -2.01 1 10 100 1000-1 0 1 2 3 Rank Source: Gruebler et al, 2009
City Hierarchies (Rank Size) Population (Million) 100 2 1 10 0 1-1.1 Chinese Sea Tokyo New York AD 1950 London Peking Baghdad Peking AD 900 Hangchow -2.01 1 10 100 1000-1 0 1 2 3 Rank Source: Gruebler et al, 2009
City Hierarchies (Rank Size) Population (Million) 100 2 1 10 0 1-1.1 Chinese Sea Tokyo AD 2000 London Peking Baghdad Peking AD 900 Hangchow -2.01 1 10 100 1000-1 0 1 2 3 Rank Source: Gruebler et al, 2009
City Hierarchies (Rank Size) 100 2 Chinese Sea Population (Million) 1 10 0 1-1.1 Tokyo London Peking Baghdad Peking AD 900 Hangchow -2.01 1 10 100 1000-1 0 1 2 3 Rank Source: Gruebler et al, 2009
City Hierarchies (Rank Size) 100 2 Chinese Sea Population (Million) 1 10 0 1-1.1 Tokyo London Peking Baghdad Peking AD 900 Hangchow -2.01 1 10 100 1000-1 0 1 2 3 Rank Source: Gruebler et al, 2009
Confronting the Challenges of Energy for Sustainable Development: The Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and its international partners present www.globalenergyassessment.org
www.globalenergyassessment.org Towards a more Sustainable Future! Energy is a crucial development goal for responding to challenges in the 21st century! Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stakeholders work together.! Energy transformation will bring multiple cobenefits for health, security, climate change! Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies
Night Lights 2000 Nakicenovic Source: After SRES, 2000 #18 2011
Night Lights IIASA A2r Scenario SRES A2 2070 Nakicenovic Source: After SRES, 2000 #19 2011
Global Energy Transformations! Access to energy and ecosystem services (a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing)! Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating climate change brings multiple co-benefits! Energy transformations require R&D and rapid technology diffusion & deployment! Sustained energy investments are needed and would result in multiple co-benefits Nakicenovic #20 2011
Mapping Energy Access Final energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density Billions of people: Abject poverty: 1.3 Poor: 0.6 Less poor: 1.4 Middle class: 1.6 Rich: 1.2 3.3 2.8 Source: Gruebler et al, 2009 #21
Global Carbon Reservoirs Atmosphere 850 GtC Biomass ~500 GtC Unconventional. Gas ~1000 GtC N. Gas ~250 GtC Oil ~250 GtgC GtC UnconventonalOil ~1150 GtgC Soils ~1,500 GtC Coal ~ 12,000 GtC Unconventional Hydrocarbons 15,000 to 40,000 GtC 14
Europe Population vs. Energy Demand Density WEU: 21% of demand below renewable density threshold EEU: 34% of demand below renewable density threshold
Global Energy Transformations! Access to energy and ecosystem services (a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing)! Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating climate change brings multiple co-benefits! Energy transformations require R&D and rapid technology diffusion & deployment! Sustained energy investments are needed and would result in multiple co-benefits Nakicenovic #26 2011
Global Carbon Emissions #27
Global Primary Energy EJ 1200 1000 800 600 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Commercial aviation" Nuclear energy Microchip" 400 200 Steam engine" Electric motor" Gasoline engine" Vacuum tube" Television" Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 #28
Global Primary Energy Efficiency EJ 1200 1000 800 600 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Commercial aviation" Nuclear energy Microchip" 400 200 Steam engine" Electric motor" Gasoline engine" Vacuum tube" Television" Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 #29
Global Primary Energy Efficiency EJ 1200 1000 800 600 Other renewables Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Commercial aviation" Nuclear energy Microchip" 400 200 Steam engine" Electric motor" Vacuum Gasoline tube" engine" Television" 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 MESSAGE GEA Efficiency MESSAGE GEA Mix MESSAGE GEA Supply IMAGE RCP 3 PD REMIND RECIPE REMIND Adam MERGE ETL MARKAL ETP Blue POLES Adam MESSAGE WEC C1 MESAP energy[r]evolution 2008 MESAP energy[r]evolution 2010 MESAP advanced revolution 2010 WGBU #30
Global Primary Energy Efficiency EJ 1200 1000 800 600 Other renewables Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Commercial aviation" Nuclear energy Microchip" Advanced transportation Conventional transportation 400 200 Steam engine" Electric motor" Vacuum Gasoline tube" engine" Television" 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy #31
Final Energy Transformations 100% On - site generation Final&energy&share&(percent%) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Grids (gas, district heat, electricity, hydrogen) Liquids (oil products, biofuels, other liquids) Solids (coal, biomass) GEA - E GEA - S #32
Global Energy Transformations! Access to energy and ecosystem services (a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing)! Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating climate change brings multiple co-benefits! Energy transformations require R&D and rapid technology diffusion & deployment! Sustained energy investments are needed and would result in multiple co-benefits Nakicenovic #33 2011
A Vision of a Future Energy System Nakicenovic Source: EU, 2002 # # 2010
Example of savings by reconstruction Before reconstruction Reconstruction according to the passive house principle over 150 kwh/(m²a) -90% 15 kwh/(m²a) Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz, EEBW2006 #35
CITARO H 2 Fuel Cell Bus Nakicenovic # # 2010
Area Occupied by Various Transport Modes Nakicenovic Source: WBCSD, 2005 # # 2010
Energy SuperGrid and MagLev Trains Source: EPRI Nakicenovic # # 2010
Potential Synergies between New Energy and Transport Infrastructures: Asian Supergrid Super Cables Power lines Electric Power Research institute MAGLEV Source: Y. Yamagata, NIES. 2010
Energy Innovation and Investments Worldwide, Billion $ innovation market diffusion (RD&D) formation End-use & efficiency >>8 1 5 8 300-3500 15 Fossil fuel supply >12 2 >>2 9 200-550 16 Nuclear >10 3 0 10 3-8 17 Renewables >12 4 ~20 11 >20 18 Electricity (Gen+T&D) >>1 5 ~100 12 450-520 16 Other* and unspecified >>4 6 <15 13 n.a. Total >50 7 <150 14 1000-<5000 19 Notes: * hydrogen, fuel cells, other power & storage technologies, basic energy research #40
Global Energy Transformations! Access to energy and ecosystem services (a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing)! Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating climate change brings multiple co-benefits! Energy transformations require R&D and rapid technology diffusion & deployment! Sustained energy investments are needed and would result in multiple co-benefits Nakicenovic #41 2011
Co-Benefits of Energy Investments
Co-Benefits of Energy Investments
Source: David Sanborn Scott, 2004 #44 44
Geoengineering Options Nakicenovic Source: Matthews, 2001 # # 2010