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Causes of Sea Level Rise* Warming expands water (~50%) Glacier/ice sheet melt (~50%) 1947 2009 Wilkins Ice Shelf, Antarctica South Cascade Glacier, WA 1960 and 2004 (NAS, 2008) *Percentages currently under much discussion and change 5.
From Donaghue, 2011 6.
Peak SLR rate = 45mm/yr 7.
~0.1mm/yr Today s rate of SLR = 3.2mm/yr. 8.
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From: CU Sea Level Research Group Nov. 2014 10.
Sea Level Change and Rate of Change Since 1880 (red lines observed) Rate Changes Last 3K years = ~0.1mm/yr 20 th Cent. = 1.7 mm/yr 1961-2003 = 1.8 mm/yr 1993-2003 = 3.1 mm/yr 1993-2008 = 3.2-3.6 mm/yr From Vermeer and Ramstorf, 2009 11.
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71 2012 Updates 28 Sen. James Inhofe s Nov 2014 prediction of 1 IPCC, 2007 13.
Complicating Factors: Building a Realistic Scenario* Start with +1m SL increase Add tides and exceptional (King) tides Add wave run-up distance and height (video) and possibility of extreme (rogue, tsunami) waves Add storm surges *High water focus 14.
King Tides Definition: extreme wintertime high tide events that occur during spring tides as the result of the combined gravitational forces of the sun and moon. Broad Beach, Malibu: Photos by Laurel Bartels, 2012 15.
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LAT Broad Beach 2008 17.
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H D Graphic from U. Wisc. Sea level rise acts as the baseline reference point to which storm surge height is added. World Bank, 2009 20.
Wave Runup http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=10pfxgbgbmg 21.
22. Coastal Flooding 2009-10 Extreme Waves
coastal floods may reach locally rare heights more swiftly in southern California than almost any other (23 studied) area, when considering effects of sea level rise integrated with storm surge patterns From Tebaldi et al. (NOAA), 2012 23.
Accelerated erosion of slope toes 24.
Crystal Cove Erosion 2009-2010 ~5 25.
Recall highest tides with 1m SLR added in: 2011 = 11.3 2012 = 9.6 Seawalls now at 9 Photo and map from OC Register, March 2011 26.
Long Beach Light blue = current 100-yr floodplain Dark blue = modeled with +1.4m (55 ) rise by ~2100 Pacific Institute, 2009 27.
Pacific Institute, 2009 28.
Pacific Institute, 2009 29.
Pacific Institute, 2009 30.
S.F. Bay 31.
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San Diego Bay 33.
Questions? 34.
Sea levels 13-20 (4-6m) higher than today with temps 5-9ºF higher (~2100 prediction) Last ice age ended ~10,000 years ago, sea levels about 390 (120m) lower Latest predictions for range 550-1100 Update May 2012 = 395
Possible Abrupt Changes (IPCC, 2007) Ocean circulation and acidification Ice cover/glacier ablation Sea level rise (coastal/island inundation) Hydrologic cycle (floods and droughts) Ecosystem changes Rapid release of methane from permafrost and ocean sediments Increased risk of species extinctions
Expected range for 2100 Long-term modern average ~280 ppm
42 km a= b + 21km (13 mi)
Of all the ongoing and expected changes from global warming... the increase in the volume of the oceans and accompanying rise in the level of the sea will be the most immediate, the most certain, the most widespread, and the most economically visible in its effects. Pilkey and Young, The Rising Sea, 2009 sea level has been rising at least 50% faster than projected by the IPCC 2007 AR4 Report. Ramsdorf, 2012 2
Major Information Sources IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) National Academies (Science and Engineering) U.S. Global Change Research Program (13 Fed. Agencies) CA Climate Change Center (core research at Scripps and UCB) and Climate Action Team (state agencies) National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate peer-reviewed literature (lots!) World Bank U.S. Army Corps of Engineers UCSD-Scripps Coastal Data Information Program 3
Temperature Weather vs. Climate Weather Time 4
NASA: Mean SLR = 3.18 + 0.6 mm/yr 3.18mm/yr = ~1.3 /decade over 1992-2012 7
8 From U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2011
It s not a catastrophic end of civilization but major adaptation to change and life as we know it; Problem is acceleration in rate of change not that earth has never seen these temps Reference dates - Today 395 ppm - IPCC 2007 380 ppm - IPCC 2002 360 ppm 550-1100?? 10 Sea levels 13-20 (4-6m) higher than today with temps 5-9ºF higher (~2100 prediction) Last ice age peaked ~20,000 years ago, sea levels about 390 (120m) lower
SL = -120m SL = current 14 NOAA graphics
CA Climate Change Research Center (2009) 11 7 ºF 3 < 20 th Century SLR constant = 3.4 mm/yr/ C 18
El Nino warmer oceans, more storm intensity La Nina cooler oceans, less storm intensity Storm surges add intensity 32 Graphic buy John F. Henz
33 Graphic from Scripps Coastal Data Information Program, May 2012
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~Maryland ~1.2% of U.S. 45 From Strauss et al., 2012
+1.5m Olympia, WA - SLR Current Worstcase Scenario (~0.8m) 47
48 World Bank assessment of top 25 cities over 100,000 population and countries impacted by rising sea levels (2012)
49 Alliance of Small Island States: 42 countries, 5% global population
50 Banda Aceh, Indonesia 2004 Sumatra (island) tsunami
51 Mekong Delta, Vietnam
53 Mekong River, Cambodia (tidal influenced)
Malé, capital of Maldives Shanghai 55
Tarawa, Kiribati pop.~30,000 Tuvalu pop. 11,000 56
Other Effects of SLR Biophysical effects of SLR on coastal regions include: - Inundation, flood and storm damage - Wetland loss - Erosion - Saltwater intrusion - Coral bleaching from higher sea water temperatures - Ocean productivity changes and species migration. 57 Socio-economic impacts - Increased loss of property and coastal habitats - Increased flood risk and potential loss of life - Damage to coastal protection works and other infrastructure - Loss of renewable and subsistence resources - Loss of tourism, recreation, and transportation functions.
Adaptation Disaster preparedness Evacuation Prediction Development planning, phased evacuation and building codes Engineering upgrades Define impact zones (floodplains, wave runup, wetlands) Assess infrastructure (floodwalls, erosion prevention, drainage) Install detection systems(surges, waves) Focus international aid (ex. World Bank) Modernize insurance rates 58
Why So Much Concern Now? 5 Identified as most serious possible abrupt change by IPCC in 2007 and more data showing that s true Rate of rise has accelerated from ~1.7 mm/yr (0.07 ) during 20th century to 3.2 mm/yr (0.13 ) over the past 20 years and up to 3.2-3.6 today This rate accelerating and expected to continue with warming Related to SLR are: Storm surges Extreme high ( king ) tides and waves Coastal development CA study (SFSU, 2011) shows $100B property at risk for 1m SLR and $14B annually needed to protect property
Impacts of Sea Level Rise: Not Just a Third World Problem Biggest problem flooding especially if high tide occurs with storm surge, high waves and El Niño Major coastal erosion Salination of coastal groundwater, estuaries, wetlands Infrastructure impacts for CA ($100B at max. 55 rise) Transportation (highway, rail, shipping, air) Urbanized areas Oil, natural gas, electric facilities Water and wastewater treatment 104 Harbors/ports 6
Oceans (sea level) CA coastal sea level increased 7-8 in last 100 years Predictions for CA are additional 24-55 rise by 2100* 100-year flood event will become a 10-year event *From CA Climate Change Research Center 2009: IPCC 2007 predicted 7 23 55 24 9
From Tebaldi et al. (NOAA), 2012 (Note: CA Climate Change Center predicts 0.3-0.45m SLR by 2050) Refs. NASA and French Space Agency, 2012 17
Mean ~1.5m 22 From Strauss et al., 2012
S.M. 2012* High = +6.93 Low = -1.58 Add 3.3 (1m) New High = 10.23 San Fran. = 10.1 Balboa = 9.6 (11.3 actual in 2011) *predicted 23
24 Average seasonal cycle of mean sea level
34 Extreme wave height statistics for a 20-year return time (From: aviso.oceanobs.com)
Oct. 2009 Atmospheric Rivers 36 From American Geophysical Union, 2011 and Scripps (Jan. 1988 photo)
Questions? Hundreds gather in Northeast to protest global warming 60