Seventh Multi-year Expert Meeting on Commodities and Development 15-16 April 2015 Geneva Recent Developments in Global Commodity Markets By Georges Rapsomanikis Senior Economist in the Trade and Markets Division Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNCTAD.
Recent Developments in Global Commodity Markets George Rapsomanikis Senior Economist, FAO 6th Annual Global Commodities Forum, April 15, 2015 Geneva
FAO Food Price Index 2002-2004=100 FAO Food Price Index 250 2011 225 2012 2013 200 2014 2010 175 2015 150 J F M A M J J A S O N D
Cereals The global cereal supply is proving to be exceptionally high this season in view of the latest upward adjustments to wheat and maize inventories. - AMIS 2002- FAO Cereals Price Index 2004=100 275 Large supplies and good prospects for upcoming crops are putting downward pressure on prices 250 225 Production continues to outpace consumption, leading to stockbuilding 200 175 Growing importance of exchange rates in global cereals markets 150 J M S J M S J M S J M 2012 2013 2014 2015 Strong dollar is offsetting some of the decline
Rice The FAO all-rice price index declined from mid-2014 on large global supplies 2002-270 2004=100 FAO Rice Price Index Production in 2014 to decline slightly from the previous year - the first since 2009 240 All Rice Global rice utilization will surpass production, leading to a decline in stocks from record levels the first time in a decade The declining value of the CFA could be an important driver in 2015, as it hinders the ability of West Africa to import 210 180 M A M J J A S O N D J F M 2014 2015
Oilseeds Prices are at multi-year lows for the entire oilseed complex both production and stocks are up 2002-290 FAO Oilseed Complex 2004=100 Indices Oilseed production in 2014/15 is forecast at a record, driven by increased soy production 250 210 Oilseeds Oil Meal Both North and South America report record soy crops - steadily rising demand for meal for feed is driving the expansion in soy 170 Vegetable Oil Oils - demand growth remains subdued due, in part, to stalled biofuel demand 130 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M 2014 2015
Dairy Prices down from historic highs - ample world supplies in 2014 and a slackening in the pace of import demand from China 2002-290 2004=100 FAO Dairy Price Index Russian import ban in August compounded difficulties, especially for cheese 250 210 Dairy Price Index may decline in April, following modest rises in February and March Oceania (in terms of exportable supplies and progress of milk production in China (in terms of driving import demand) No significant increase in EU milk production in 2015 is expected from the elimination of quotas 170 130 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A 2014 2015
Sugar Sugar prices have been declining since 2011 - world sugar stocks are estimated at near record levels 2002-290 2004=100 FAO Sugar Price Index Despite declining output from large exporters, prices will likely continue to face downward pressure due to large inventories Other factors have exacerbated the fall in prices (weak Brazilian real, various policy measures) 250 210 170 Not yet any upward price effect from higher blending mandate for Brazilian ethanol, or from early indications of lower global production in 2015/16 130 M A M J J A S O N D J F M 2014 2015
Economic growth Percent GDP Growth Global growth is expected to rise through 2016 9.0 8.0 High-income and developing countries alike are expected to see higher growth in 2015 and 2016 7.0 6.0 5.0 Developing Countries East Asia and the Pacific Growth in East Asia has slowed, but is expected to remain flat around 7% 4.0 3.0 2.0 World High-Income Countries 1.0 0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f
Exchange rates U.S. Dollar to Euro exchange rate is at a level not seen in over a decade $/ U.S. Dollars per Euro 1.50 1.40 Value of the Euro driven lower by quantitative easing 1.30 U.S. dollar appreciation driven by relatively stronger economy 1.20 1.10 1.00 J M S J M S J M S J 2012 2013 2014 2015
Money Monetary expansion (contraction) triggers expectations for increased (decreased) inflation rate - investors to move away from (towards) liquid assets towards (away) commodities interest rates fall (increase), increasing (weakening)the incentive to hold inventories Percent 6 2002-2004=100 300 4 200 The role of money in affecting food prices is not quite clear Not easy to explain the recent negative trend in food prices in terms of interest rates but announcements may have weight 2 Federal funds rate (left axis) FAO food price index (right axis) 100 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0
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