Maritime Shipping Forecast - PDF Free Download

Maritime Shipping Forecast Christopher Pålsson Managing Director, Partner www..com

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Global economic overview Global economic growth is still fairly OK Improved consumer purchasing power in the USA Northern Europe pulls Southern Europe lags Ukraine is a source of concern China slows down Threat from shadow banks and property bubble Export growth 15% in Sep: weaker Yuan, reforms Imports up 7% in Sep: low domestic demand, but stimuli package starts to have effect record trade surplus Breakbulk, Copyright 2014. All rights reserved.

Real GDP growth GDP growth rates differ, China and India drive the total 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 USA N Europe S Europe Japan China India Total Breakbulk, Copyright 2014. All rights reserved. Data sourced from information provided by IHS Global Limited. Copyright maritime -insight, 2014. All rights reserved

Cheap US shale gas and tight oil are global game changers Shale gas Bunker fuel in N American SECA Cheap US: Power generation Refinery runs Truck fuel Chemical production Energy intensive production LNG for exports Competitive US: chemical exports energy intensive products exports oil product exports Breakbulk, Copyright 2014. All rights reserved. Picture sources: w ww.zmescience.com, w ww.cleanskies.org Tight oil Reduced US oil imports Ample supply of crude and products in North America Pressure to lift ban on US crude exports Growth of: oil product exports (diesel) Reduction of: Crude shipments to the US Gasoline shipments to the US Downward pressure on global crude oil prices

Reflections: Black Sea Good growth prospects for Armenia, Georgia & Turkey Turkish exports dominate trade, but small volumes. Unbalanced trade Outbound to Bulgaria and Romania Construction material Synthetic resins Vehicle parts Some food items Future outbound to North East Africa Construction material Inbound from South Caucasus Synthetic resins Aluminium & scrap Russia and Ukraine provide great uncertainty Strait of Kerch & Sea of Azov to be closed for international trade? Project cargoes create stochastic opportunities Breakbulk, Copyright 2014. All rights reserved.

Cargo ro-ro Tough times ahead Expensive ships (to build & to run) Inefficient ships (cargo/dwt) SECA 2015 (high consumers big losers) Containerization (also on short sea) The way to survive New ship designs more efficient (state of the art) cheaper (build in Asia) Supply chain improvements Breakbulk, Copyright 2014. All rights reserved.

Cargo roro current status 680 ships with 1 million lane metres of capacity 66% of capacity in European hands: Grimaldi, Cobelfret, UN Roro, DFDS... 15% in the Americas: US Gov t, Clipper, Totem, Sea Star European trades dominate followed by the Americas. Distribution of fleet ownership 2014 Distribution of fleet employment 2013 Breakbulk, Copyright 2014. All rights reserved.

Some thoughts on cargo roro Opportunities Improved short term supply/demand ratio New cost-efficient vessel designs Feedering of new cars in Asia? Threats Lack of efficient tonnage puts cap on ability to capitalize on short term supply/demand improvements Containerization Breakbulk, Copyright 2014. All rights reserved.

Why continued investments in new ships? 2006-2012 100 ships >5,000teu delivered each year. Most of them expensive and not efficient enough. High capital costs Expensive to run Scaling up. Shortage of feeders. SECA regulations. You have access to cargo! Breakbulk, Copyright 2014. All rights reserved.

Summary Good demand growth prospects but there are threats General cargo fleet without growth still 200-300 new ships are delivered every year enough to make a change on any market and to meet energy efficiency goals The container is hungry!!! Roro is struggling but a good project is always welcome Breakbulk, Copyright 2014. All rights reserved.