What future food security means to the developing and developed worlds Reshaping the industry in turbulent times Nan-Dirk Mulder, 12 November 2014
Content 1. Long term global animal protein outlook 2. The changing world: Asia as driving force 3. Long term strategic outlook
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Grains and oilseed prices: A reflection of the new market reality USD/tonne Grains and oilseed prices 2000-2014 (USD/tonne) 700 Commodity boom years 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Wheat Corn Soybeans Source: Rabobank/Bloomberg, 2014
Why? Global food supply challenge: A bumpy road Meat demand Food demand Fuel demand +20% in 10 years Meat supply Food supply Fuel supply Livestock/poultry supply Livestock supply Grains and oilseed supply Land use Source: Rabobank, 2014 Expansion Efficiency Yield Efficiency Cultivation Yield???????
Stocks dwindling as supply fails to keep up with demand Grains S/U 0.40 World grain stocks to use ratio 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 - Source: Rabobank analysis/usda, 2014
Biofuels at turning point Global demand for biofuels 1,000 tonnes oil equivalent 70,000 60,000 Take off years Fast growth CAGR: 24% Consolidation: CAGR: +3% 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000-2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Asia Pacific Africa Middle East Europe South & Central America North America Source: BP, Rabobank analysis, 2014
Biofuels have a big footprint in global grains and oilseeds markets Ethanol: 12% of global corn supply (16% of sugar cane supply) Animal protein - Direct market impact - By-product DDGS Biodiesel: 17% of global soy oil supply 10% of global palm oil supply 25% of global rapeseed oil supply 1% of global sunflower oil supply Animal protein - Indirect market impact - By-product Meals Source: Rabobank analysis, 2014
Fast growth in animal protein: 45% more in 2030 X 1,000 tonnes 800,000 Global demand for animal protein 700,000 600,000 +19% +17% Change:30/10 Seafood:+25% 500,000 400,000 +35% +20% Eggs: +48% 300,000 +39% Poultry: +60% 200,000 100,000-1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Pork: +42% Beef: +25% Seafood Eggs Sheepmeat Poultry Pork Beef Source: Rabobank, FAO, OECD, FAPRI
Income growth leads to higher animal protein consumption kg/head 180 160 Per capita animal protein consumption in 2010 140 120 100 80 Global average 60 40 20 0 Eggs Fish Meat other Sheep Poultry Pork Beef Source: Rabobank/FAO/USDA
65% of global meat and egg demand growth is in Asia Market growth estimate for key meat markets 2013-2023 1,000 tonnes 30,000 25,000 First tier: 59% Second tier: 20% Rest:: 21% 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - -5,000 4% 2% Source: Rabobank, FAO, FAPRI, OECD, 2014 Eggs Poultry Beef Pork
Asia lacks adequate resources, Africa has plentiful Global land quality assessment Available agricultural land Rest of the world 15% Brazil 10% Argentina 7% Other South America 11% Sub Saharan Africa 45% Russia 9% Other Eastern Europe/Central Asia 3%
More global trade 1,000 tonnes 30,000 Global meat and poultry trade 1995-2014* Export as share of global production in 2014: 25,000 6% 20,000 15,000 Export as share of global production in 1995: Pork : CAGR: +2.5% 16% 10,000 7% Beef: CAGR: +5.0% 14% 5,000 13% 8% Chicken: CAGR: +5.9% 0 Pork Beef Chicken Source: Rabobank/USDA, 2014
Content 1. Long term global animal protein outlook 2. The changing world: Asia as driving force 3. Long term strategic outlook
Global change: growth in emerging markets, decline in the West 1,000 tonnes 80,000 Global meat consumption 2005-2013: CAGR +2.1% Economic crisis years China: CAGR: 3.4% 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 2007: Asia 41% share EU + US: CAGR -0.6% Rest of world: CAGR 2.3% 2013: Asia 45% share Rest of Asia: CAGR +3.3% 30,000 20,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 EU and US China Rest of Asia Rest of world Source: USDA/FAO/Rabobank, 2014
Different dynamics in industry in emerging and Western markets ECONOMIC TAKE- OFF Food as a need Income: < $ 5,000 Time free EU plus Western countries ECONOMIC REINVENTION Food as stimulation Income: > $40,000 Location Bound Location free BRIC industry growth Source: Rabobank Income: $ 5,000 - $15,000 Income: $15,000 - $40,000 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Food as a social occasion Time bound ECONOMIC CONSOLIDATION Food as nutrition/well-being
Western markets: consumer concerns to change industries Food safety Animal welfare Buy local Environment friendly Source: Rabobank, 2014
Consumer concerns to drive global change in business models Alberta: Phase out of battery cages Canada: ban on pig gestation NL: Chicken of tomorrow D: Germany Initiative tierzucht EU: 2012 Cage ban 2013 sow house ban China: Antibiotics, melanine scandals California Jan 2015 cage ban Source: Rabobank, 2014 ACT, WA: Bans on cage houses and sow stalls 13
Asia drives global growth: 67% of growth is in China 1,000 tonnes 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Consumption growth by BRIC country 2007-2013 67% Share in global growth: Asia: 76% -China 50% - Rest Asia 26% 2,000 0 8% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% -2,000 Poultry Pork Beef Source: USDA/FAO/Rabobank
China as emerging market example of increasing consumer concerns China chicken consumption China egg consumption 1,000 tonnes 15,000 1,000 tonnes 32,000 Antibiotics scandal 14,000 Lost demand 3 million tonnes 30,000 Lost demand 2.6 million tonnes 13,000 12,000 11,000-3% -5% 28,000 26,000-7% H7N9 outbreaks 10,000 24,000 9,000 22,000 8,000 20,000 QSR food scandal Source: Rabobank/USDA, 2014 Source: Rabobank/USDA, 2014
Will China recover? Yes, and growth will be fast Chicken consumption China versus HK, Taiwan and Macao kg/capita 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 China Hong Kong Taiwan Macao Source: Rabobank, FAO, 2014
Only one solution: Modernization of the industry Higher incomes Modern distribution Food safety Animal disease threat High feed prices Modern value chain Larger companies Vertical integration Efficiency Yield Value chain management Sustainability Source: Rabobank
Setting up global supply chains Globalization in the meat industry Source: Rabobank
Strategic global food security will change industries USD 2.6 billion investment USD 7.1 billion investment
Content 1. Long term global animal protein outlook 2. The changing world: Asia and Africa as drivers 3. Long term strategic outlook
Companies from emerging markets drive industry globalisation Global ranking of top 20 meat companies by volume 1,000 tonnes 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Poultry Pork Beef Source: Rabobank
Towards the Asian and African decades in poultry development Global investments Global investments in the poultry industry 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source: Rabobank, 2014
Importance of trade will grow fast Global trade as share of production projections 25.0% Projections 2014-2024 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Chicken Beef Pork Source: Rabobank, USDA, 2014 28
Optimal efficiency more important as ever before Grains & Oilseed Feed Breeding Farming Processing Customer Compound feed price (EUR/100 kg) DOC Price (EUR/100 kg) FCR Live weight Wages EUR/hr Processin g costs Total cost whole chicken Poland 34.5 31.1 1.76 2.3 5 25 154 Germany 34.5 31.1 1.68 2.2 15 31 164 France 32.8 32.8 1.75 1.9 20 35 170 Italy 40.1 35.5 1.85 2.5 13 30 182 US 25.7 19.6 1.93 2.5 17 32 133 Brazil 26.5 27.0 1.80 2.1 3 22 119 Russia 33.9 32.3 1.81 2.5 2 22 153 Thailand 32.9 28.0 1.75 2.3 2 22 128 Horizontal efficiency Vertical efficiency - Efficient feed production - Access to cheap grains - Efficient hatching egg production -Modernisation level farms - Size farms - Skills farmers - Contract pricing model Value chain supply management Pricing Communication -Modernisation level plant - Line speed - Labor use plant Source: Raboabnk analysis based on LEI data
Chicken and eggs perfectly positioned as cheapest and most flexible proteins Cost of production Efficiency Production cycle length Flexibility Eggs Eggs Chicken Chicken Pork Pork Beef Beef Salmon Salmon 0 1 2 3 EUR/KG 0 10 20 30 40 50 Breeding Finishing Source: Rabobank analysis,. 2009 Months
Meeting future supply: A multi disciplinary challenge More efficiency Better yields Animal nutrition Houses Management skills Labor costs Food safety Genetics Knowledge and skills Plants Added value Animal health Diseases Environment Source: Rabobank, 2014
Ongoing high and volatile feed costs. Efficiency and yield as KSFs Global food supply challenge: more food with less resources Ongoing high and volatile feed costs Digestibility: Carbohydrates, lipids/energy/proteins Mineral components Increasing pressure on resources: sustainability Enzymes can play key role for digestibility and raise efficiency and yield Need for higher efficiency and yield Volatility in feed formulations and new ingredients Source: Rabobank, 2014 32
Thanks for your attention Questions? nan-dirk.mulder@rabobank.com Nan-Dirk Mulder, 12 November 2014