R&D needs in solar photovoltaic energy conversion Hubert Fechner IEA PVPS IEA REWP Joint R&D Seminar, Paris, 3 March 2005
Solar energy radiated to the earth ~ 10.000 x world energy demand Photovoltaic - direct conversion of solar radiation into electricity How far is the technology today?
Efficiency (%) 32 28 2 4 20 16 12 8 4 0 1975 Best Research-Cell Efficiencies Multijunction Concentrators Three-junction (2-terminal, monolithic) Two-junction (2-terminal, monolithic) Crystalline Si Cells Single Crystal Multicrystalline Thin Si Thin Film Technologies Boeing Monosolar Kodak Masushita Boeing University of Maine RCA 1980 Boeing AstroPower 1985 Solarex Spire 1990 Japan NREL Energy NREL UNSW Photon Energy Euro- CIS Emerging PV 1995 United Solar NREL/ Spectrolab UNSW UNSW UNSW NREL Cu(In,Ga)Se 2 14x Concentration 2000 Spectrolab Cu(In,Ga)Se UNSW 2 Spire Stanford Sharp Amorphous Si:H Varian ARCO (stabilized) Georgia Tech CdTe Westinghouse North Univ.S. Carolina Solarex Florida Boeing State University Kodak ARCO Boeing AMETEK Georgia Tech UNSW NREL NREL NREL NREL NREL NREL Astro- Power Organic Cells U.Californi a U. Konstanz Berkeley Princeton NREL Ref. Tom Surek at NREL
4'000 Photovoltaic Market (IEA) Cumulative installed grid-connected / off-grid PV power in the reporting countries 3'500 Grid-connected Off-grid Installed PV Power (MW) 3'000 2'500 2'000 1'500 1'000 500 0 > 4 GW installed ~ 3 TWh Energy 19921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
Key players Share of PV cell production in the reporting countries by company in 2005 (%) Shell Solar (DEU, USA) 4% BP Solar (AUS, ESP, USA) 5% RWE Schott (DEU, USA) 6% Isofoton (ESP) 4% Photowatt International (FRA) 2% Others (23 companies) 16% Mitsubishi Electric (JPN) 7% Sanyo Electric (JPN) 8% Sharp (JPN) 28% Kyocera (JPN) 9% Q-Cells (DEU) 11%
Price of PV modules [2001 $] Power Modules (1976-2001) 100 1976 1983 1990 10 1981 1987 Price of Power Modules (2001 $) 2001 Estimate 1976-2001: PR = 80%± 0.4% Estimate 1987-2001: PR = 77%± 1.5% 1 0 1 10 100 1000 10000 Cumulative Shipments [MWp] power modules Source: Strategies Unlimited
PV cost compared to bulk power Assumptions: 1% annual increase in Electricity Tariffs 5% annual reduction in PV costs Source: EU Technology Platform
Solar cells: today and future Ref. M. Green, UNSW
Resources and potential The solar resource 60% BIPV: Potential contribution to electricity supply 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Australia Austria Canada Denmark Finland Germany Italy Japan Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom United States Ref. ISET / Czisch 0%
PV R&D: subjects and issues Main bottlenecks: cost, efficiency, products Materials Cells and Modules System components & BIPV Processes and manufacturing Environmental aspects Quality assurance and standards Cross-cutting issues
[µm] 320 270 220 170 120 320 14,0% Ingots/Wafer thickness and Cell Efficiency 300 14,5% 15,0% 240 15,5% 200 16,0% 180 16,5% 170 17,0% 160 17,5% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 [Efficiency in %] 150 20% 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% Ingots/Wafer thickness (µm) Cell efficiency (in percent)
Technology and market R&D Basic & applied Solutions & Manufacturing Products & Applications Market Promotion Markets Evolution not Revolution (Jeff Portmans) Improvements result in cost reductions, efficiency increase and enhanced applicability. Greater sales mean higher demand - greater use gives more feedback. Technology cycle Stimulation of the production results in higher quantity and quality. Market cycle Technology progresses through innovation, feedback and R&D investment. Cheaper, better and new products enlarge markets and open new segments. TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT MARKET DEPLOYMENT
PV R&D: approaches Industry involvement Short, medium, long-term Continuity Strong and dedicated effort Roadmaps
Useful links & contact http://www.iea-pvps.org http://www.pvdatabase.com http://www.epia.org http://www.demosite.ch Hubert Fechner, ExCo-Member IEA PVPS Head of Department of Renewable Energy Technologies arsenal research, Giefinggasse 2, A-1210 Vienna, Austria Tel. +43 50550-6299 Email: hubert.fechner@arsenal.ac.at