Agriculture and Climate CTA Jan Verhagen. 20 Sept. 2012, Wageningen
The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever- Changing Planet
Population increase & diets Source: UN Population Division, 2007 Source: FAO, 2008; FAOSTAT, 2009.
Climate Change & Agriculture: a dual relation Emissions à mitigation Impacts à adaptation
GHG N 2 O Climate Change Temp. Rain Sea level Pest & diseases Extreme events CH 4 CO 2 livestock Agriculture Water Energy Soil Crop proces sing Trans port fertiliser land use change
Global GHG emissions (Pg CO 2 -eq yr -1 ) Agricultural land uses: 10-12% of total global anthropogenic emissions of GHG About 60% of N 2 O About 50% of CH 4 Less than 1% CO2 Other GHGs CH 4 N 2 O CO 2 Other Waste Agriculture Energy Other Agriculture Other The contribution of land use change emissions to the total emissions from human activities was 12% in 2008, down from 20% in the 1990s (Carbon Budget, 2009) Fossil fuel Smith and Mar5no. Agriculture. IPCC WG III Report (2007) Smith and Mar5no. Agriculture. IPCC WG III Report (2007)
Climate Change and agriculture: Impacts (2050) Adaptation is not taken into account. based on literature and expert judgement of Chapter 5 Lead Authors. IPCC, 2007
Climate Smart Agriculture start from development priorities in agriculture production systems with low vulnerability to climate change agricultural products with low GHG emission intensity
Required growth for food and feed is nothing new Population (billions) 8 1.8 7 1.6 6 1.4 1.2 5 1 4 0.8 3 0.6 2 0.4 1 0.2 0 0 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year Arable area (10 9 ha) 5.4 4.8 4.2 3.6 3 2.4 1.8 1.2 0.6 0 World aver. wheat yields (t ha -1 ) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Fertilizer N (10 9 kg) Updated from Evans, 1998
Managing N and C cycles (Oenema et al 2001) N 2 O N 2 Biological N fixa5on CO 2 photo- assimila5on denitrifica5on CO 2 NO 3 Organic MaJer CH 4 nitrifica5on N assimila5on NH 4 Methano- genesis N mineralisa5on respira5on
Ambitious and realistic Carbon sequestration
CSA n create adaptive and resilient systems: doing things differently to doing different things n reduce emissions intensity of agricultural production and conserve or increase soil carbon stocks in agricultural managed land
Production, stability and resilience Fresco, L, and S Kroonenberg. 1992. Time and Spa5al Scales in Ecological Sustainability. Land Use Policy (January 1).
GHG management CO 2 -eq Farm CO 2 -eq CO 2 -eq Farm CO 2 -eq CO 2 -eq Farm CO 2 -eq
Smart combination CO 2 -eq Farm CO 2 -eq CO 2 -eq CO 2 -eq CO 2 -eq Farm CO 2 -eq
Agricultural practices
Good Agricultural Practices & Climate Smart? adaptive and resilient systems reduce emissions intensity of agricultural production and conserve or increase soil carbon stocks in agricultural managed land. Eco-efficiency Precision agriculture Water management Crop rotation Functional biodiversity Energy balance..? è context specific
GAP & CSA Agricultural practices GAP Agricultural practices GAP CSA CSA Agricultural practices GAP CSA
From Current Management Practices (CMP) to GAP/CSA Agricultural practices GAP CMP CMP CSA
water management Tillage Rotation on farm processing & storage Management Nutrient Management and Manure seeds Specific crop protection measures
2 Water 3 Crop and Fodder Production 10 Wildlife and Landscape water management Tillage 1 Soil 3 Crop and Fodder Production 1 Soil 3 Crop and Fodder Production 4 Crop Protection Rotation Management Nutrient Management and Manure 1 Soil 3 Crop and Fodder Production 2 Water on farm processing & storage 3 Crop and Fodder Production seeds Specific crop protection measures 3 Crop and Fodder Production 10 Wildlife and Landscape
Informed decision making at all levels Based on available scientific information Need to understand systems to identify effective and efficient mitigation and adaptation measures Need (monitoring) data and modeling to support claims of GHG reductions and C-sequestration. Uncertainty and variability will not go away. Identify effective and efficient activities/measures
Tackle climate change Awareness and commitment Start from political and economic context Make climate information available for everyday practices of stakeholders Show realism in dealing with synergies and trade-offs Effectiveness and efficiency not always easy: time scales. Adaptation should lead mitigation: priority remains with feeding the increasing population.
Thanks