1 Workshop: Scanning for Business Environments Scanning for Business Environment: some remarks Markku Wilenius Director of Research
June 5, 2003 2 1970 2020 More is more Less is more More other things and other ways WHERE ARE WE NOW? Industrial Rationale Late-modern transition Postindustrial rationale Present information society is the late-modern transient between the two eras Industrial Society Information society Service-based network society
June 5, 2003 3 Knowledge-based societies and economy What do we mean by that? The shift from industrial to network society: we have to change the ways we assess the competitiveness of the companies Competition at industrial age: workforce, raw-material, capital and economies of scale Competition for the future: competitiveness is built on leadership, knowledge processing and speeding up innovation cycles
June 5, 2003 4 The wise words of my good friend Ian Wilson, long-term chief advisor to Jack Welsh, CEO of General Electric and the most respected business leader in US: We need more leadership and less management
June 5, 2003 5 The secret of succesful companies... What Hamel & Pralahad, two most influential thinkers on strategy today have found out in their work with companies during last twenty years... They must have sufficiently ambitious long-term targets They see competition more as a question of competence building than of fighting for the market shares They invest rather on building new competencies than on defending existing market position
June 5, 2003 6 After Hamel & Prahalad: What are the questions to make... Today Which customers are you serving today? Through what channels do you reach customers today? Who are your competitors today? What is the basis for your competitive advantage today? Where do your margins come from today? What skills or capabilities make you unique today? In what end product markets do you participate today? 3 to 10 years in the future... Which customers will you be serving in the future? Through what channels do you reach customers in the future? Who will be your competitors in the future? What will be the basis for your competitive advantage in the future? Where your margins come from in the future? What skills or capabilities will make you unique in the future? In what end product markets will you participate in the future?
June 5, 2003 7 THE IMPLEMENTATION OF DEVELOPMENT PLAN IN THE VISIONARY MANAGEMENT COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS PRESENT FUTURE Field of Business Size of the Company Field of Business Size of the Company Image Preferences Policies Culture Manag. syst. Org. structure Values Core Competences Products Segments Logistics Business Idea Image Preferences Policies Culture Manag. syst. Org. structure Values Core Competencies Products Segments Logistics Business Idea DEVELOPMENT PLAN
June 5, 2003 8 Trends, Scenarios and Weak Signals Extreme scenario X Trendscenario or BAU -scenario The emergence of weak signal Extreme scenario Y
June 5, 2003 9 The Development of Weak Signals The strength of Signal The treshold of common knowledge Signal Noise The area of diminishing returns Time Greatest opportunities and risks
June 5, 2003 10 DIMENSIONS OF OPPORTUNISTIC, STRATEGIC AND VISIONARY MANAGEMENT VISIONARY MANAGEMENT Focus Vision Year 0 +1 Year +3 Years +5 Years STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT OPPORTUNISTIC MANAGEMENT
June 5, 2003 11 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AS VISIONARY MANAGEMENT INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL AS KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT HUMAN CAPITAL Acquiring individual skills STRUCTURAL CAPITAL Building and developing practices and systems in the organisation PR CAPITAL Creating, maintaining and developing customer databases and networks FUTURES APPROACH AS VISIONARY MANAGEMENT OPPORTUNISTIC APPROACH Reactive: Using your competence to react in the best possible way to the situation in hand STRATEGIC APPROACH Reactive: Preparing for changes and reallocating your resources VISIONARY APPROACH Proactive: To define new business arenas for your company
June 5, 2003 12 The basis for competence development STRAGETIC COMPETENCE - Innovative new product and service concepts FACTUAL COMPETENCE -How do we produce new products and services? CUSTOMER COMPETENCE -How do we sell and market new product and business concepts?
June 5, 2003 13 Heading towards new understanding on the role of strategy. Competition for the future is to compete by creating and dominating in the emerging new arenas of opportunities. Four criteria for successful performance: 1) To understand how competition for the future is different 2) To have a development process, whereby we create and find new understanding of the future opportunities 3) to recharge the whole company from bottom to top-level to exploit all the resources to fulfil new targets ( a hard task!). 4) to be able to beat your competitors and get to the future first, without taking too much risk...
June 5, 2003 14 Management is to do things right; leadership means to do the right things Peter Drucker & Warren Bennis