Implications of the economic downturn on infrastructure, in particular on railway sector in the region Vasile N. Olievschi Senior Railway Specialist The World Bank Bucharest November 12, 2009
Contents The immediate impact of the economic crisis on transport How does the economic crises impact on railway infrastructure and operations? Sound reasons for maintaining/increasing expenditures in railway infrastructure Why is it vital to continue investing in railways in Central Europe?
Shipping Container Port throughput declined for half-year 2009: -15% (Rotterdam), -18% (Singapore), -27% (Long Beach) 1,400 vessels (9% of world shipping fleet) have been laid up (12% of total containership fleet) Demand for shipping is at 50% of capacity 45% of orders for new freight liners is expected to be delayed or cancelled over the next two years Charter rates for 3,000~5,000 TEU vessels: 2008 average: $25,000 per day 2009 June: $5,250 per day Anticipated 2009 losses for all shipping lines: $10 billion Increase in demand for container shipping not expected before 2014
Air Transport At end-july 2009, freight volumes were down 19% and passenger travel down by 7% compared to 2008 Slight improvement since July, with 3% growth over June after adjustment for seasonal factors Parked idle fleet up to 2,860 aircraft (13.1% of total fleet) up by 30% over the past 12 months IATA estimates airlines will lose $9 billion in 2009 after $8.5 billion loss in 2008
Railways Passenger volumes & travel declined in most of Europe but less in Asia since 2008 (Pass-km): -1.5% average in EU countries -10%> in Ireland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Denmark, Romania +23% in China, +2.3% in Kazakhstan Freight volumes significantly declined world wide compared to 2008 (Tons-km): -29.1% average in EU countries -35% in Former Yugoslavia -40%> in Austria, Bulgaria, Spain Ireland, Romania, Slovakia, Moldova, Serbia -10% in United States, Japan, Kazakhstan Source: UIC Statistics
Observations by the World Bank Downside: Lower Government revenues Some countries have delayed investments in infrastructure Shrinking budget allocations for O&M! Constrained Private financing for potential PPP projects Upside: Several countries have significant infrastructure investments as part of their stimulus packages Strategy: Impacted countries should take the opportunity to implement sustainable cost and revenue structures, particularly for State Owned Enterprises
Transport Services Key Drivers for Economic Growth Freight volumes increase at a higher rate than GDP Freight volumes to be transported probably will double during the next 20 40 years If neglected, the transport system may delay the economic recovery EC Statistics 2009
Characteristics of Railways from CEI Countries Relevant for Developing Transport Policies during the Crisis Many railways in the region still have an important transport market share that must be preserved and consolidated The railways in the region could help their countries in addressing sensitive issues of higher safety of transport, and environment and climate change challenges The railways in the region started most needed reform programs for increasing their competitiveness on the EU open transport market. Stopping this process would jeopardizing the already achieved results. The significant market share of private sector in railway transport in the region could help countries recover sooner from the global recession
Important Transport Market Share to be Preserved and Consolidated Still higher market share for freight transport than the average of EU Less costly to preserve the existing transport market share than to recapture the lost clients EC Statistics 2009
Railways supporting governments in addressing sensitive issues of higher safety, and environment and climate change challenges
Need of a Balanced Transportation Market *CEI States Data: Bulgaria, Czech Rep., Croatia, FY ROM, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia
EC Statistics 2009
EC Statistics 2007
EC Statistics 2007
Supporting the development of infrastructure will help to successfully continue the railway reform process
UIC Statistics 2008
UIC Statistics 2008
Investing in infrastructure the governments support the increasing participation of private sector in railways
43% of the Railway Freight Market Operated by Private Sector UIC Statistics 2008
20% of the Railway Freight Market Operated by Private Sector
Infrastructure Investments and the Railway Reform - Key Drivers for Economic Growth Modernization and maintenance of railway infrastructure recommendable component in stimulus packages: Much expenditures spent domestically Labor intensive due to nature of works Retains current traffics, and is well-placed to benefit from the upswing Crisis good opportunity for initiating / continuation of railway reforms fighting against: market reduction, higher costs for governments, lower competitiveness, vulnerability on the open transport market As new Members of EU, candidate countries, or neighboring countries to EU, the CEI railways must implement legal and institutional frameworks similar or closed to EU approach, and develop modern infrastructure interoperable with the EU The World Bank is ready to support these processes based on its large experience in the railway industry and in the region Transport lending > US$ 6 billion in FY09; FY10 > $9 billion?
Thank you for the kind attention!