Quick-but-Clean? A Screening LCA Tool Using PERT Estimates to Incorporate Uncertainty Debbie Kalish Program Manager, Ingersoll Rand Center for Energy Efficiency & Sustainability Christoph Koffler, PhD Technical Director PE International, Inc.
Ingersoll Rand Overview A $14 billion diversified industrial company Publicly-held; NYSE:IR More than 52,000 employees worldwide in 54 countries Operations in every major geographic region Strategic brands are #1 or #2 in their markets Products and services for commercial, industrial and residential markets
Advancing the Quality of Life We advance the quality of life by creating and sustaining safe, comfortable and efficient environments addressing the world s growing critical needs for Clean and comfortable air Secure homes and buildings Safe and fresh food Energy efficiency Sustainable business practices A World of Sustainable Progress and Enduring Results
Why Create a Screening LCA? Desire life cycle thinking in our New Product Development (NPD) process We need a tool that can estimate environmental burden and perform scenario analyses that is: Easy to use Cost effective Inputs can be gathered quickly Uses minimal resources Is robust Reproducible
Model structure & results Christoph Koffler, PhD PE INTERNATIONAL
Quick-but-Clean? LCA model Product Number Weight Steel Non-ferrous Castings Polymers Chemicals Power storage Electronics Use phase Unalloyed Stainless Aluminum Copper Ferrous Non-ferrous Blow molding Operating materials Paints & Coatings Battery Battery LCD [in2] Energy Consumabl es Direct emissions Bar Misc Bar Fin Stock Iron Aluminum Compressio n molding Desiccants Lubricants Refrigerant Refrigerant Electrodeposition [ft2] Lead-acid PWB [in2] Diesel [gal] Lubricant CO Coil Sheet Extrusion Industrial tube Steel Brass Extrusion R134a Powder coating [ft2] Li-Ion Wiring Gasoline [gal] Refrigerant HC Plate Fin stock Technical tube Titanium Injection molding R404a Spray coating [ft2] Natural gas [mmbtu] NO Sheet Sheet Brass extrusion Zinc Rubber R410a Power [kwh] NO2 Slit coil Tube LPG [gal] NOx Structural PM unspec. Tube 7 material groups based on IR BOM taxonomy & available LCI data Sum of material weights is scaled to match product weight Use phase with energy & consumables consumption & direct emissions Calculation of GWP, AP, EP, ODP, and SFP (TRACI 2.0) PM10 PM2.5 Natural gas (2-stroke lean) CNG (4- stroke rich) Diesel (uncontroll ed industrial) AP42 CNG (4- stroke lean) Gasoline (uncontroll ed industrial) LPG
Quick-but-Clean? Castings / Non-ferrous / Aluminum
Quick-but-Clean? Model parameterization parameter best case most likely worst case recycled content 100% 50% 0% material loss during manufacturing 0.2% 6.5% 20% landfilled in EoL 2% 65% (1) 80% (2) (1) McMillan et al. 2012 (2) EPA 2010 Total of 81 parameters / 243 individual parameter values for model calibration All parameter values reviewed with various Ingersoll Rand brands Data gaps filled with literature values
Quick-but-Clean? Calculation of results worst case worst case (16.67%) Impact category indicator result PERT estimate most likely (66.67%)? best case best case (16.67%)
Quick-but-Clean? The PERT distribution beta distribution first developed by the U.S. Navy min / max / most likely stronger tendency towards the most likely value than the triangular distribution f x = K x a α (b x) β PERT estimate = (best + 4 x most likely + worst) / 6
Quick-but-Clean? Cradle-to-grave GWP per unit of material class
Quick-but-Clean PE Global LCIA Expert Survey 2012 Establish weighting factors for 13 impact categories 660 LCA experts worldwide contacted via email 245 online questionnaires completed (37%) APAC RER RNA RAF RLA
Quick-but-Clean? Cradle-to-grave single score per unit of material class
Quick-but-Clean? Model validation: no use phase burden Screening tool significantly overshoots check modeling choices & data Steelcraft Steel Door
Quick-but-Clean? Model validation: moderate use phase burden Screening tool much less detailed than benchmark underestimation IR Cordless Assembly Screwdriver Benchmark based on GaBi DB 2006 higher ODP values in electricity datasets
Quick-but-Clean? Model validation: high use phase burden Dominated by copper tubes tool assumes lower recycling rate Trane Chiller Use phase doesn t add any significant ODP emissions
Quick-but-Clean? Conclusions Quick, customized, intuitive, non-expert tool minimizes data collection & analysis costs but clean! PERT single score is a robust estimate use phase energy consumption offsets uncertainty from manufacturing display of upper & lower limits improves decision making
Quick-but-Clean! Outlook road test tool with various brands / product lines review and refine model parameterization establish it as core DfE tool in NPD process
To be continued Deborah Kalish Ingersoll Rand Christoph Koffler PE INTERNATIONAL