MOVEET: MOBILITY, VEHICLE FLEET, ENERGY USE AND EMISSIONS FORECAST TOOL Joko Purwanto
Definition & scope A new transport & emissions model Global scale model: world divided into 57 regions (countries and zones of countries) Long-term horizon: 2000 2050 Passenger and freight transport All modes: road, rail, air, and maritime, IWW Multidimensionality of trips: O/D, purpose, distance band, urban level, time of the day, 2
Model specification 1 Basic modular structure 3
Model specification 2 Geographical boundary 57 countries/zones 33 countries in Europe: Austria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belgium, Luxembourg, Denmark, Spain, Finland, France, UK, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Czech Republic, Germany, Slovak Republic, Cyprus, Malta, Slovenia, Sweden, Bulgaria, Croatia, The rest of Balkan countries, Romania, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey and 24 zones outside Europe: Canada, USA, Japan, Australia - New Zealand and the rest of South Pacific countries, Russia, Ukraine, The rest of former Soviet Union countries, Mexico, The rest of Central American countries, Brazil, The rest of South American countries, India, The rest of South Asian countries, South Korea, Indonesia, The rest of South East Asian countries, China - Hong-Kong - Macau, Egypt, Oil producer North African countries: Algeria and Libya, Non oil producer North African countries: Western Sahara-Morocco-Tunisia, Israel-Jordan-Lebanon- Syria, Gulf countries, South Africa, The rest of African countries Period: 2000 to 2050 (data up to 2005) 4
Model specification 3 Main sources of data Socio economic & demographic data: inline with the European Commission White Paper in transport (2011) Initially TREMOVE model database for Europe: basically stock and vehicle techno-economic data of EU27 countries In the last study for ACEA: road vehicle data has been adapted to TRACCS vehicle fleet database. See: http://traccs.emisia.com/ JRC-IPTS transport models database for non-europe zones: stock and vehicle techno-economic data of 57 world zones 5
Potential use Policies related to vehicle technologies: new emission standards, new technologies, supplementary measures,... Policies related to fuel qualities: fuel standard related to carbon content,... Policies related to fiscal instruments: vehicle taxation, incentive for low emission cars,... Policies related to traffic management: logistics, changes in speed-flow curves,... 6
Demand Module 1 Endogenous demand generation Intracontinental demand Passenger: regression based on GDP and motorisation rate Freight: regression based on GDP and trade Intercontinental demand Estimated from origin (country/zone) to destination (macro region) Regression based on: GDP, tariff, generalised costs of OD, etc. 7
Demand Module 2 Intercontinental demand generation: Regions and macro regions Macro-region North America (NOA) Central America (CEA) South America (SOA) CAN, USA MEX, RCAM BRA, RSAM Countries or Regions Europe (EUR) Europe (first column in Table 2) Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Africa (AFR) Middle East (MEA) China (CHI) North East Asia (NEA) South East Asia (SEA) Oceania (OCE) South West Asia (SWA) RUS, UKR, and RFSU NOAN, NOAP, SSAF EGY, MEME, GOLF CHN COR, JPN RSEA RJAN NDE, RSAS, 8
Demand Module 3 Demand segmentation: dimensions Segmentation of demand mainly due to macro circumstances Geographical dimensions, (national vs. international; etc.), trip purposes and period of time (peak vs. off-peak). Depend on the macroscopic context rather than on individual choices. Segmentation of demand mainly due to micro decisions Transport mode and road type. Choices between alternatives 9
Fleet Module 1..and the rest of the model Costs Performance Vehicle features GDP, population, other factors Transport demand Prices Transport supply Demand generation Demand segmentation Expected transport supply Vehicle costs Fleet planning Fuel and other costs Fleet size and composition Additions to the fleet Scrappage Emissions Fuel use Energy use and emissions 10
Fleet Module 2 Classical vehicle dynamic XXX FLTNEW t XXX FLTNEW t-1 XXX EXPFLTRET t XXX FLTRET t XXXNATFLTt-1 XXX NATFLTt XXX EXPFLTt t-1 t t+1 11
Fleet Module 3 Vehicle types Air (10): passenger jets (5), freighter (3), passenger turboprops (2) Maritime (22): liquid bulk (6), gas bulk (1), dry bulk (8), container (6), non cargo (1) Rail (6): diesel loc, electric loc, steam loc, HST electric loc, diesel railcar, electric railcar Road freight (8): diesel & gasoline LDT, four classes of HDT Passenger cars (11): light & heavy gasoline, light & heavy diesel, battery electric, FC, H2FC, gasoline hybrid, diesel hybrid, H2 hybrid, natural gas 12
Energy Use & Emission Module 1 Main activity: Calculation of fuel consumptions and tank-towheel (exchaust) emissions Main methods: Modes Methods Pollutants Road Rail Copert IV, IPTS transport model TRENDS Project, IPTS transport model CH 4, CO, CO 2, N 2 O, NO X, PM, SO 2, VOC, NMVOC CH 4, CO, CO 2, NO X, PM, SO 2, VOC, NMVOC Air TRENDS Project, Sutkus et al. 2001, 2003 CO,CO 2, NO x, VOC Inland waterways Artemis Project CH 4, CO, CO 2, N 2 O, NO X, PM, SO 2, VOC, NMVOC Maritime IPTS Transport Model CO 2 13
Energy Use & Emission Module 2 GDP, population, other factors Transport demand Demand generation Costs Performance Prices Demand segmentation Expected transport supply Vehicle features Transport supply Vehicle costs Fleet planning Fuel and other costs Fleet size and composition Additions to the fleet Scrappage Emissions Fuel use Energy use and emissions 14
Welfare Module Consumer surplus Logsum approach based on the nested logit tree structure in the demand module (De Jong et al, 2005 and Akiva and Lerman, 1979) Consumer surplus is the utility in monetary terms that a person receives in the choice situation. Externalities In relation to climate change, pollutant, and accident calculated in the environmental module Distorsion due to taxes and subsidies Based on taxes, subsidies, and VAT summed up for all lowest nodes of the nested logit tree 15
Baseline scenario background & assumptions Demographic: World population grows steadily from 6.3 billion people (2005) to 8.9 billion (2050). Economic: Total world GDP would rise from 31.5 T (2000) to 128 T (2050). Change of world economic growth centre Energy: oil price would rise according to World Energy Outlook (2008) from USD 100/bbl (2010) to USD 120/bbl (2030) to USD 300/bbl (2050) (in term of nominal price). Greenhouse gas: carbon tax in the 33 European countries is assumed to increase linearly from 1 /tco2 (2013) to 38 /tco2 (2050). This tax is assumed to be zero in the rest of the world. European Union countries: emission targets 2015 and 2020-2021 for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles 16
M*t CO2 Example 1: EU CO2 limit for passenger cars 800 ROP REGEMCO2 600 400 200 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Time (Year) ROP REGEMCO2[EUR] : MOVEET_real115_20150603v1 ROP REGEMCO2[EUR] : MOVEET_real105_20150603v1 ROP REGEMCO2[EUR] : MOVEET_real95_20150603v1 17
Example 2: LNG Ships Penetration Impacts on penetration rate of LNG ships due to 3 different capex cost scenarios High LNG Baseline Low LNG 2015 2020 2025 2030 vessels 50 584 1976 6846 share 0,06% 0,61% 1,76% 4,94% vessels 50 561 1893 6580 share 0,06% 0,58% 1,69% 4,75% vessels 50 554 1867 6494 share 0,06% 0,58% 1,67% 4,68% Impacts on EU flag ships CO2 emissions (MtCO2) due to 3 different capex cost scenarios 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 LNG Low Baseline LNG High 18
THANK YOU! joko@tmleuven.be 19