European Offshore Wind Oceans of Opportunity Christian Kjaer Chief executive European Wind Energy Association IWEA, Leading the Green Revolution Galway 1 October 2009
Global annual wind power capacity (1996-2008) Global market for wind turbines in 2008: 35 billion
Wind development is similar to other power sources 18 years of global wind energy development (1991-2008) compared to the first 18 years of nuclear development (1961-1976) MW 150000 125000 100000 Annual Wind Annual Nuclear Total Wind Total Nuclear 75000 50000 25000 0 '61 '91 '62 '92 '63 '93 '64 '94 '65 '95 '66 '96 '67 '97 '68 '98 '69 '99 '70 '00 '71 '01 '72 '02 '73 '03 '74 '04 '75 '05 '76 '06 '77 '07 '78 '08 Source: EWEA IAEE
GW Global annual installations (GW) 1999-2008 Nuclear power and wind energy 30 25 Nuclear Wind 20 15 10 5 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Nuclear 2.8 3.1 2.7 4.9 1.6 4.8 3.8 1.5 1.9 0 Wind 3.4 3.8 6.5 7.3 8.2 8.2 11.5 15.2 20.1 27.1 Sources: European Wind Energy Association (EWEA); International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
New power capacity additions 1999-2008 (EU-27, GW) Total installed: 200 GW GW 120 100 100,0 80 60 58,9 40 20 10,4 0 Natural Gas 50% Wind 29% Coal 5% Photo- Voltaic 4% Fuel Oil 4% Nuclear 3% Hydro 2% 8,8 7,0 5,8 3,9 3,4 1,8 Biomass 2% Other 1% Source: EWEA, EPIA and Platts PowerVision
New power generating capacity in 2008 (EU, GW) Total installed: 23,851 MW MW 9000 8,484 8000 6,932 7000 6000 5000 4000 4,200 3000 2,495 2000 1000 762 473 296 149 60 0 Wind 36% Gas 29% Photovoltaic 18% Fuel Oil 10% Coal 3% Hydro 2% Biomass 1% Other 1% Nuclear 0,3% Source: EWEA, EPIA and Platts PowerVision
Cumulative wind energy installations Source: EWEA
Wind power in Europe 2008 35% electricity from RES 8
Wind Power s Share of Electricity Demand Source: EWEA
How Much Renewable Electricity? How Much Wind Power? 20% Renewable Energy by 2020 requires: 34% electricity from RES 25% heating from RES 10% biofuels from RES Electricity 2005: 15% incl. 10% large hydro and 3% wind Excluding large hydro the share of renewable electricity must increase from 5% to app. 25%, in 15 years depending on power demand 1 EC baseline scenario EU demand (2020): 4163.7 TW/h
March 2009: EWEA increased its 2020 target from 180 GW to 230 GW (incl. 40 GW offshore) Rising energy demand and contribution from wind power 2000: 12.9 GW 2008: 66 GW 2020: 230 GW Two decades to install 0.9% of EU electricity demand Demand: 2,577 TWh Accelerating pace: reaching 4.2% end 2008 Demand: 3,380 TWh 14%-18% despite growing demand Demand: 4,107 TWh Source: EWEA
National Action Plans - timeframe June 09 Summer 09 December 09 June 10 Summer/ Autumn 10 December 10 December 11 Binding format for the National Action Plans made available by Commission Directive entered into force 20 days after publication in the Official Journal. New installations and increased capacity from refurbished installations may take advantage of joint projects aspects Member States send a forecast document to Commission indicating whether they will have a surplus or import needs to meet interim trajectory Member States send National Action Plan to Commission outlining appropriate measures Member States transpose the Directive s provisions into national law & communicate this to the Commission Commission evaluates the National Action Plans. Member States report on progress made in reaching established national objectives (every 2 years)
EWEA report September 09 Scenarios 100 GW planned projects 20-year grid plan Maps Supply chain www.ewea.org
Offshore Global cumulative wind can power wind power Europe capacity seven times over 1990-2007 (MW) Technical potential of offshore wind - 25,000 TWh by 2020-30,000 TWh by 2030 EU energy demand - 3,537 TWh by 2020-4,279 TWh by 2030 Source: European Environment Agency
Offshore current status End 2008: 1.5 GW offshore 8 EU countries
2008 Global and cumulative 2009: steady wind as power she goes capacity 1990-2007 (MW) 2008: 366 MW annual installed offshore capacity 1,471 MW cumulative installed offshore capacity 2009: 420 MW annual installed offshore capacity 2,000 MW cumulative installed offshore capacity
Offshore Global cumulative wind energy wind market power in capacity the EU in 2010 1990-2007 (MW) Annual installations of 1,100 MW Cumulative installed capacity of 3,000 MW Electricity production of 11 TWh Meeting 0.3% of total EU electricity demand Avoiding 7 Mt of CO ² annually Annual investments in wind turbines of 2.5 billion
2011 Global cumulative 2020: steady wind growth power of offshore capacity market 1990-2007 Offshore wind energy (MW) annual and cumulative installations 2011-2020 (MW) 2011: annual installations of 1.5 GW 2020: annual installations of 6.9 GW 2020: cumulative installations of 40 GW Source: EWEA 2009
Offshore Global cumulative market growth wind to power follow capacity the onshore pattern Historical onshore growth 1992-2004 compared to EWEA s offshore 1990-2007 (MW) projection 2008-2020 (MW) Onshore market growth: 32% Offshore market growth: 28% Source: EWEA 2009
100 Global GW cumulative and counting wind power capacity 1990-2007 (MW) EWEA has identified proposals for over 100 GW of offshore wind projects in European waters: This would meet 10% of EU electricity demand This would avoid 200Mt of CO ² annually 100+ GW shows the significant level of developer interest EWEA prediction: 40 GW by 2020 150 GW by 2030
Country Global cumulative breakdownwind power capacity 1990-2007 Ireland (MW) Online: 25.2 MW Current pipeline: 3,755 MW Total: 3,780.2 MW Source: EWEA 2009
Regional Global cumulative breakdownwind power capacity 1990-2007 Atlantic, Irish Sea, (MW) North Sea and Skagerrak Online: 1,071.6 MW Under construction: 3,310 MW Current pipeline: >60,324.5 MW Total: > 64,706.1 MW + UK Round 3 (90,206.1) Source: EWEA 2009
EWEA s Global cumulative 20 year offshore wind power network capacity development plan 1990-2007 (MW) All necessary grid updates to transport all electricity produced by planned, proposed, under construction and operating offshore wind farms to European electricity consumers in an economically sound way Recommends building a transnational offshore grid infrastructure to connect: 40 GW by 2020 150 GW by 2030
EWEA s Global cumulative 20 year offshore wind power network capacity development plan 1990-2007 (MW) Based on: - Existing TSO plans - TradeWind scenarios Added value of plan: - Provides step by step timetable for grid development - Suggested capacities - Integrated with development/concession zones
EWEA s 20 year offshore network development plan Global cumulative wind power capacity 1990-2007 (MW) Source: EWEA 2009
Global EU: importing cumulative 54% wind of its power energy capacity and rising 1990-2007 (MW) EU share of proven global reserves Years of domestic production Oil 0.5% - 0.8% 7.7 7.8 years Gas 1.4% - 2% 14.4 14.8 years Coal 3.5% 50 years Uranium 1.9% Source: European Commission, 2008
Remember to vote! www.ewea.org RENEWABLE ENERGY HOUSE 63-65 RUE D ARLON B-1040 BRUSSELS T: +32 2 546 1940 F: +32 2 546 1944 E: ewea@ewea.org