1/20 Latin America Petrochemical Summit 2017 New PE Capacity in Mexico: Update and Expected Trends for 2017 Jorge Barreda Houston, March 23rd 2017
Outlook of the Mexican PE Market
3/20 Mexican PE Market an attractive market of around 2 Million Tons 2016 HDPE Market 945 KT/y Blow Molding [VALUE] [PERCENT AGE] Pipes [PERCENT AGE] 62 [VALUE] [PERCENT AGE] Film HMW [VALUE] [PERCENT Injection Molding AGE] Monofilaments [VALUE] 2% [VALUE] Rotomolding and others [PERCENTAGE ] 2016 LLDPE Market 650 KT/y Films [VALUE] [PERCENTAGE ] Film HMW 2016 LDPE Market 414 KT/y Frac [VALUE] Melt [PERCENTAGE ] [VALUE] Coating [VALUE] 6% Inj Mold 8% Source: BI [VALUE] Films [PERCENTAGE ] *Smaller markets not pictured: cable and wiring, expandable PE, caps and closures, profiles, others
4/20 Mexican PE Market. a lot of room for growth PE consumption per capita * *Approximate per capita consumption for Mexico 2016 = 16 kg/person HDPE 47%, LDPE 24%, LLDPE 29% Source: IHS
5/20 Mexican PE Market. a market growing above GDP 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 HDPE LDPE LLDPE 2,011 MT 2,091 MT 2,168 MT 2,248 MT 2,331 MT 2,417 MT 625 650 676 703 731 760 430 447 458 470 482 494 500 956 994 1,034 1,075 1,118 1,163 0 2015 2.5% 7% 2016 2.3% 4%* 2017 2.27% 2018 2.37% 1.7%? 3.6% *Preliminary estimate before official data **2016 GDP growth from Banxico estimates, 2017-2020 from OECD estimates 2019 2.3% 2020 2.3% Source: BI
6/20 Mexican PE Market highly competitive environment Producers More than 60 active distributors and resellers 35% 65% All US Producers have presence in the market Distributors Traders Several traders with direct sales to converters and resellers
1 14 27 40 53 66 79 92 105 118 131 144 157 170 183 196 209 222 235 248 261 274 287 300 313 326 339 352 365 378 391 404 417 430 443 456 469 482 495 508 521 534 547 787 Tons/year 7/20 Mexican PE Market PE demand follows the 80/20 rule Customers A: 45 customers represents 50% of total demand Consumption above 700 t/m 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 Customers B: 163 customers represent 30% of total market Monthly consumption between 180 and 700 MT 163 Customers 600,000 400,000 200,000 45 Customers 574 Customers 0 Number of Customers Customers C: 574 customers represents 20% of total demand Consumption below 180t/m ABC Curve for HDPE / LDPE
8/20 Mexican PE Market converters located in Central Mexico Region % % Agg Central Mexico (Metropolitan Area) Bajío (Central Plateau) 35% 35% 20% 55% Western Mexico 14% 69% Central Mexico 13% 82% Northeast 10% 92% Southeast 7% 99% Northwest 1% 100% Total 100% Converters -By Geography Total distribution of converters by geography
ETHYLENE XXI PROJECT. is now the newest capacity in the Americas!
10/20 ETHYLENE XXI Project now a reality... 750 KT HDPE Innovene S Ineos Technology 300 KT LDPE Lupotech T Lyondel Basell Technology Video 10
11/20 Braskem Idesa Products Bringing value to the market Braskem Idesa provides the blow molding market with a complete portfolio for rigid products packaging from 0.2 to 20 liters. BM Bimodals grades benefits to the customers: Outstanding stiffness and ESCR balance making it ideal for use in a wide range of blow molding applications The exceptional ESCR can allow for significant bottle weight reduction without affecting the mechanical properties Can be processed at temperatures varying from 160º to 200 ºC on conventional equipment. Shorter cooling time 11
12/20 Braskem Idesa Products HDPE Broad Product Portfolio Braskem Idesa has a wide range of products that bring innovative solutions for different applications (23 different polyethylene grades HDPE/LDPE) Injection Molding Blow Molding Pipe High stiffness Excellent mechanical strength Excellent procesability Resins formulated with UV protection Materials that exceed the requirements of food and beverage segment, health care segment and automotive for small containers. Excellent procesability Good rigidity High impact strength Internal pressure resistance Outstanding Slow Crack Growth resistance Excellent rapid crack propagation resistance High chemical resistance Installation efficiencies
13/20 Braskem Idesa Products HDPE Broad Product Portfolio HMW Film Application: Very thin film on high-speed line, low caliber. (Blown Film Extrusion process) Broad bimodal weight distribution developed for the blown film segment. Films made with this degree offer high stiffness, good heat sealing response, and resistance to trait propagation.
14/20 Braskem Idesa Products LDPE Broad Product Portfolio BI s products has been accepted very well! 94% of all PE qualifications have been approved by our customers. Injection Molding Film Good balance between stiffness, smoothness, dimensional stability and procesability. High mechanical resistance Excellent procesability High compatibility with other polyethylene types Excellent optical properties
15/20 Our Vision Become the TOP OF MIND of PE in Mexico To be recognized as a reliable, quality and innovative supplier Become the preferred commercial partner for our target customers Leader of Mexican PE market for target applications Maintain an strategic position in the target international markets 15
16/20 06 Logistic Infrastructure Domestic market Monterrey San Luis Potosí Tizayuca Silao Nanchital Huehuetoca Ferrosur / Ferromex Kansas City Southern Mexico + 7 support Logistic Operators
17/20 Competitive Logistics to reach Global market More than: 44 countries & 77 destinations 17
18/20 2017 Expected Mexican Market Trends PE demand will growth around same pace despite political events We do not expect any change in imports regulations.. Petrochemicals trade balance favors USA Market dynamics will change A consolidation of distributors may occur Prices will follow US market trend however there will be a downward pressure whenever the price difference between US market and exports reach certain level Competitive environment will be tougher due to the new capacity Servicing customers will have a big impact in buying decision 18
19/20 2017- Challenges and Opportunities In the last 2 years, Mexican plastic industry has been growing 2 or 3 times more than the GDP growth. But Market uncertainty generated by the resents political events in the world, especially in the USA brings instability to the Mexican economy. Nevertheless There are many reasons that allow us to be optimistic: Great market potential Opportunity to develop new products for Mexican consumers. New market opportunities with other countries, arising from FTAs that we haven't taken advantage of. 19
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