Green corridors: policy and regulatory issues Raimonds Aronietis, Paresa Markianidou, Hilde Meersman, Tom Pauwels, Eddy Van de Voorde, Thierry Vanelslander and Ann Verhetsel University of Antwerp Department of Transport and Regional Economics
Problem: negative externalities What? Costs that a transport user causes to other transport users and society, without any remuneration Which? Congestion Infrastructure Environment Accidents Noise 1
Problem: congestion Traffic Ringroad Antwerp 2007/2006: 1,4% increase in vehicles, 1,9% increase in vehiclekm Congestion Antwerp region: 2003: 28 million hours driven, of which 1,5 million lost hours, or 75 million cost; 20% freight transport Counting on Antwerp access ways: 17% freight, of which 23% port-bound 2
Problem: environment and noise Source: Mobility balance KIM (2010) 3
Problem: shifting of activities Source: CBRE (2010) and Cushman and Wakefield (2010) 4
Three large issues Capacity Capacity utilisation Innovation 5
Capacity: plans Port Terminal Free capacity / Planned increases Amsterdam Antwerpen no structurally idle capacity, no specific plans Deurganckdok terminals Saeftinghedok terminals? 2009: 4,000,000 TEU idle 2015? 7,000,000 TEU additional Bremen CT 4 2009: 1,900,000 TEU idle Hamburg Eurogate Container Terminal Hamburg CTH HHLA Container Terminal Burchardkai CTB HHLA Container Terminal Altenwerder CTA HHLA Container Terminal Tollerort GmbH CTT 2010: 1,900,000 TEU additional 2010: 2,400,000 TEU additional 2010: 600,000 TEU additional 2010: 1,050,000 TEU additional Le Havre Port 2000 Phase 2: 2 quay walls in a tidal terminal (2008-2009), 500,000 TEU increase Phase 3: 6 quay walls in a tidal terminal (?),500,000 TEU increase Rotterdam EUROMAX terminal Maasvlakte 2 2009: 2,300,000 TEU 2014: 17,000,000 TEU Vlissingen Westerschelde Container Terminal 2,000,000 TEU, no specified date Wilhelmshaven Jadeweserport 2009: 2,900,000 TEU additional Zeebrugge no structurally idle capacity, no concrete plans Source: port authorities 6
Rail connections Inland navigation Pipeline Safety! Capaciteit: missing links 7
Capacity: volume development Source: CPB 8
Capacity: development scenarios Source: CPB 9
Capacity: procedures and vision Regional planning Environment Infrastructure policy and financing Safety 10
Capacity utilisation: measures Modal shift Behavioural change Best practices Price sensitivity 11
Capacity utilisation: international agreements Getting to agreed combinatinos of measures concerning price, infrastructure and regulation Not evident: not within countries, not internationally Scientific indications of direction of impacts is equal, but not of direction of impacts 12
Innovation: initiatives Material Cleaner engines Lighter materials Procedures Mode shift Grouping cargo Balancing But: amounts invested stay far below those invested in other economic sectors! Insufficient collaboration among academic institutes! 13
Innovation: transferia 14
Innovation: small inland navigation Seaport Tug and barge convoy Barges Barges Large waterway Small waterway Small waterway Barges Inland destination Inland destination 15
Innovation: Q-barge 16
Innovation: crane vessel 17
Innovation: importance Savings in the area of: Energy Emissions Noise Accidents But: not evident: incentives that are given, are not continuous, and not consistent among countries 18
Setting[1]: E313, Albert canal and Iron Rhine The Albert canal and Iron Rhine both are potential direct competitors to the E313 motorway. A project to increase the capacity of the Albert Canal has started and will require the replacement of a number of bridges. In 2004 Belgium requested the reopening of the Iron Rhine. 19
The main research question: What combinations of measures provide sufficient results in alleviating congestion problems on port hinterland connections? This will be applied to the port of Antwerp and its hinterland. 20
Methodology Qualitative impact analysis of port traffic evolutions (Albert canal, Iron Rhine, SSS, European developments, etc.) Link was made between selected infuencing factors and Freight Model Flanders by creating scenarios Freight Model Flanders used (developed by K+P Transport Consultants, Tritel and Mint) 21
Modelling [2] 12 scenarios were constructed. Scenarios are based on possible developments in the economy and possible policy that could be introduced by the government. Each scenario is a combination of several assumptions: economic, policy-related, linked to population and household consumption, dealing with import and export, and with inland navigation and ports. Road infrastructure changes are not investigated. 22
Economic assumptions; Modelling import and [3] - scenarios: export Policy assumptions Assumptions inland navigation Port assumptions Scenario 1 Low growth Continuation of current policy Continuation of current policy Following economic assumptions Scenario 2 Low growth Continuation of current policy Extra measure inland navigation Following economic assumptions Reference scenario Normal growth Continuation of current policy Continuation of current policy Following economic assumptions Scenario 3 Normal growth Continuation of current policy Extra measure inland navigation Following economic assumptions Scenario 4 Normal growth Moderate transport policy Continuation of current policy Following economic assumptions Scenario 5 Normal growth Moderate transport policy Extra measure inland navigation Following economic assumptions Scenario 6 High growth Moderate transport policy Continuation of current policy Following economic assumptions Scenario 7 High growth Moderate transport policy Extra measure inland navigation Following economic assumptions Scenario 8 Normal growth Internalizing external costs of all modes Continuation of current policy Following economic assumptions Scenario 9 Normal growth Continuation of current policy Continuation of current policy 0.5 x results economic assumptions Scenario 10 Normal growth Continuation of current policy Continuation of current policy 1.5 x results economic assumptions Scenario 11 Normal growth Internalizing external costs of all modes Scenario 12 Normal growth Internalizing external costs of all modes Continuation of current policy Continuation of current policy 0.5 x results economic assumptions 1.5 x results economic 23 assumptions
Tonnage (mln tons) Base 2004 Results[1]: Calculations for every scenario (tonnages) Ref. sc. Sc.1 Sc.2 Sc.3 Sc.4 Sc.5 Sc.6 Sc.7 Sc.8 Sc.9 Sc.10 Sc.11 Sc.12 29.82 30.87 30.22 29.58 30.27 19.86 19.38 20.19 19.71 16.12 24.62 37.12 12.89 19.35 Index 100 103.52 101.32 99.19 101.49 66.60 64.97 67.71 66.08 54.05 82.56 124.47 43.22 64.87 Total Growth Annual Growth Comparis on to base 2004 Comp. to reference scenario Example: Comparison of scenarios related to location Nr.1-3.52 1.33-0.81 1.49-33.40-35.02-32.29-33.92-45.95-17.44 24.47-56.78-35.13-0.22 0.08-0.05 0.09-2.51-2.66-2.41-2.56-3.77-1.19 1.38-5.11-2.67 + + - + -- -- -- -- -- -- ++ -- -- - - - -- -- -- -- -- -- ++ -- -- 24
Results[2]: the difference plot (example) The route change investigation was done using difference plot illustration tool of the Cube software. 25
Results[3]:Mode shift investigation example: Port of Antwerp Incoming flows Outgoing flows 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2004 Ref Sc1 Sc2 Sc3 Sc4 Sc5 Sc6 Sc7 Sc8 Sc9 Sc10 Sc11 Sc12 Sc4bis 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% IWW 50% Rail 40% Road 30% 20% 10% 0% 2004 Ref Sc1 Sc2 Sc3 Sc4 Sc5 Sc6 Sc7 Sc8 Sc9 Sc10 Sc11 Sc12 Sc4bis Done for: port of Antwerp; county of Antwerp (excl. Port of Antwerp); region of Turnhout; region of Hasselt; region of Antwerpen, Mechelen, Turnhout and Sint-Niklaas (regions taken together) 26 IWW Rail Road
General conclusions [1] The results of the simulations show that combinations of measures with similar consequences have a bigger effect. Therefore, for practical implementation a combination of measures is more advisable. A specific scenario may have different, even adverse effects on the traffic volumes in different points and directions of the road network. 27
General conclusions [2] Scenarios with port growth variations clearly show the impacts of port turnover dynamics on the traffic on the locations at the E313 motorway. The increased/decreased port throughput has an influence both on incoming and outgoing flows, but the level of effect is different. The incoming flows are influenced less than the outgoing flows. 28
General conclusions [3] In general, scenarios introducing the extra measure for inland navigation lead to an increase of the share of inland waterways with maximum 4% in the port of Antwerp. When internalizing the external costs of all modes, the increase is higher, up to 8%. 29
Conclusions port traffic Scenarios with port growth variations clearly show the impacts of port turnover dynamics on the traffic on the locations at the E313 motorway. The increased/decreased port throughput has an influence both on incoming and outgoing flows, but the level of effect is different. The incoming flows are influenced less than the outgoing flows. 30
Conclusions Pricing [1] The introduction of a moderate transport policy leads to a decrease of the traffic on the E313, but leads to an increase at the lower network. In the case of charging the entire network with a kilometre cost variable equal to 0.15 together, the results differ substantially, showing that the decrease in tonnage becomes more widespread in the network. 31
Conclusions Pricing [2] The introduction of the internalization of external costs policy for all modes creates the same network pattern (widespread decrease of tonnages) but with the effects being more pronounced than the scenarios of moderate policy. The introduction of the internalization of external costs (applied to the entire infrastructure) leads to a significant change in the mode split between road, rail and inland navigation. 32
Conclusions Good and comparable statistics and indicators are needed! Capacity: fluent procedures, also and in particular cross-border. Common research into market and economic development. Agreement on capacity utilisation measures. Getting clearer insight into impacts of capacity measures Innovation investments must be increased, and agreed. Act in a market-conform way! 33
Thank you! Thierry Vanelslander thierry.vanelslander@ua.ac.be University of Antwerp Department of Transport and Regional Economics Faculty of Applied Economics