Norway and China - business and technology for global sustainability? Rasmus Hansson, Secretary General, WWF Norway Offshore Wind China 2010, Radisson Blue, Bergen, 15.3.2010
China can t just copy the West The Living Planet Report 2008 estimates the biological carrying capacity of the planet to 13.2 bill. global hectares An equitable, sustainable global footprint = 2.1 g.h./cap. Norway s footprint in 2005 (latest data) = 7 g.h./cap. If China s and India s 2.47 billion population were to consume like the average Norwegian we would need 17.3 billion g.h. There are not enough resources on the planet for China and India to over time emulate the lifestyles of Western nations with current modes of production and consumption. Source: Living Planet Report 2008, by WWF, Zoological Society of London, and Global Footprint Network.
China looking for a new way of development China s ecological footprint = 1.6 g.h./cap (69th in the world) Below the equitable global average of 2.1 g.h./cap. But China already consumes twice its available biocapacity China partially covers its deficit by imports 50% of China s footprint stems from Greenhouse Gas Emissions
China is vulnerable to climate change China s annual average air temperature has risen 1.1 C the last 50 years. Northern China is increasingly experiencing severe droughts. Southern China is increasingly experiencing heavy rain and floods The impact of climate change will threaten long-term food security and may reduce the output of basic crops such as rice, wheat and corn with up to 37% by 2050 (Chinese Gov. report, 2007) Days of torrential rain in southern China have killed 66 people and left 12 missing by last night, according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs. Nearly 9 million people have been affected. Floods caused by heavy rains damaged 94,000 houses and destroyed 48,000 in the region; and forced the evacuation of about 591,000 people, a ministry spokesman said. About 294,800 hectares of crops were affected, of which 53,000 hectares were completely destroyed, he said. Jiao Meiyan, director of the National Meteorological Center, attributed the continuous heavy rainfall in part to global climate change. China Daily 11 June 2007.
Thinking locally, acting globally The IPCC 2007: We have a decade to decouple the link between development and increased CO2-emissions if we are to stay below +2 in the 21 st century. OECD CO2-emissions must be reduced by 80-90% by 2050 + the rapid increase of emissions in developing countries must stop. Two things must happen in a coordinated manner: OECD countries transform into low carbon societies developing countries apply new low carbon technology solutions
Copenhagen COP15: Limit global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius World energy-related CO 2 emissions abatement [Gt] IEA (2007): China s energy demand will more than double by 2030. Market upside: China will invest 3.7 trillion USD (2006) in energy supply infrastructure by 2030. Those companies who can deliver the necessary technologies will possibly become the major companies of the 21st Century. (In the 20th C, the ten biggest companies were oil and car companies.) Source: IEA 2009
China s next step: A low carbon civilization? 1978-2003: China went from a small-scale agrarian economy to a producer of advanced consumer goods to the whole planet. 2003-2028: China steps further a low carbon civilization? The realpolitik behind it: Resource constraints means China is forced to realize a new development paradigm to ensure continued growth... The Chinese Government sets goals - and achieves them Reduce carbon intensity by 40-45% by 2020 Increase % of renewable energy in the energy mix from 10% to 15% by 2020 Increase wind power generation capacity from 25GW to 150GW (tbc) by 2020
Challenges provide opportunities China provides huge opportunities: Incentives are high for delivering new solutions (env. problems massive ) Innovation potential is huge (R&D among the highest in the world) Scaling up production and lowering costs of new technologies for the world market Large scale implementation of new solutions (public procurement as driver of innovation and providing demonstration) China s potential GreenTech market is estimated to 1tr US$ / year towards 2020.* The crux: How can countries like Norway support China s growth and contribute to save the planet? * China Greentech report 2009, by China Greentech Initiative (founded by American Chamber of commerce and PriceWaterhouseCoopers).
Norway has unleashed cleantech potential Absolute global Clean Energy Tech product sales 2008 [EUR bn] Relative global Clean Energy Tech product sales weighted by GDP 2008 [% EUR] Source: Roland Berger Consultants: Clean Economy, Living Planet, WWF 2009. NB: Clean Energy Tech = New Renewable Energy, Electric Transport, Energy Efficiency, Electric Storage Tech.
The lesson from leading cleantech export countries is: Choose, Focus, Develop
Norway vs. China From a global low carbon perspective, Norway is interesting in two areas: An energy nation with cutting edge technology (e.g. offshore, CCS) World s 2nd largest government investment fund (+450b USD) Offshore wind in China The next global hotspot for offhore wind development Estimated 30GW to be developed by 2020 - a 74b Euro market. Equivalent to number of CO2 reductions 1.3b tons CO 2 e / 20y lifetime +13GW offshore wind projects already in long-term pipeline Chinese companies are interested in offshore cooperation Source: China, Norway and Offshore Wind Development, WWF 2010.
Aligning Norway s tools in support of global equitable development Norway s Government Pension Fund (SPU) + USD 450 billion fund. Owns more than 1% of all shares in the world. World s second largest sovereign wealth fund (after Abu Dhabi). Pioneer in ethical investment practises, now to increase focus on climate change Opened office in Shanghai in 2007 to engage in the Chinese market. SPU energy investments* in China 2008 = US$ 236 million (NOK 1.666b.) 72.3% petroleum companies = US$ 164 million (NOK 1,205m) 26.8% coal companies = US$ 63 million (NOK 447m) 0.9% renewable energy companies = US$ 2.1 million (NOK 14.7m) (*not incl. electricity providers). Source: Investing in Global Warming, WWF 2009.
Thinking locally, acting globally. Two things must happen in a coordinated manner: Norway must transform into a low carbon economy China needs to apply new low carbon technology solutions Offshore wind development provides: huge potential for a strategic partnership speeding up global commersialization of new technology positioning Norwegian companies in a new global industry will aid Norway s transformation into a low carbon economy To unleash the potential: CHOOSE, FOCUS AND DEVELOP
We will need to change - one way or the other By 2050, many coastal cities may be flooded by the rising sea level. To tackle global warming, there are easier ways. Please visit: www.wwfchina.org
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