Livestock products: Domestic and international market a view of 2015 Alina Zharko Association Ukrainian agribusiness club
Dairy products Production of milk and dairy products in Ukraine Dairy products foreign trade Results of 2014 and expectations of the dairy industry development in 2015 Global milk market trends Main exporters and importers of dairy products The EU market and other alternative markets for dairy products Meat and meat products Production of cattle meat Production of pork Production of poultry meat Meat and meat products foreign trade Results of 2014 and expectations of livestock industry development in 2015 The EU meat market NICHE PRODUCTS
Milk
Production of milk in Ukraine, mln. t. Agricultural enterprises 3,00 2,00 1,00 0,00 3,9 % 2,2 % 2,25 2,54 2,58 2,68 2,74 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* Households 9,00 8,00 7,00 6,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 2,0 % 6,0 % 8,84 8,85 8,90 8,72 8,20 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* *Forecast Source: State Statistic Service of Ukraine
Production of dairy products, January-October 2013, 2014 2013 2014 2014 to 2013 Liquid milk processed, thous. t 795,2 915,0 115% Milk for infant nutrition, thous. t 10,2 11,4 112% Skimmed milk powder 35,5 50,5 142% Whole milk powder, thous. t 11,4 10,6 93% Butter, thous. t 78,2 100,5 129% Cheese, thous. t 140,3 107,1 76% Milk and cream, concentrated, thous. t 47,6 43,3 91% Yoghurt and other fermented products, thous. t 434,6 399,8 92% Source: State Statistic Service of Ukraine
Milk products foreign trade January-October 2013, 2014 Export, thous. t 200 150 100 50 24 23 5 8 146 180 2013 2014* 0 Beef Pork Poultry Import, thous. t 200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 3,7 2,0 150 35 71 50 2013 2014* 0,0 Beef Pork Poultry
The loss of the Russian market Results of 2014 Revenue from dairy products export to Russia in 2014 amounted to $119 mln., and in 2013 - $374 mln. Reorientation from cheese production to the production of butter and dried milk Development of the tendency towards reducing of cow population Increasing of productivity of cows due to improved technology of cattle feeding and management The inspection of the dairy industry by the European Union Reducing of domestic consumption of milk and dairy products The outflow of raw milk to Crimea, Belarus and Transdniestria
Expectations of the dairy industry of Ukraine in 2015 Reorientation in the foreign trade of dairy products: development of existed and search for new sales markets A further reduction in cow population Increased competition in the dairy market Prices for raw milk will be under pressure Entry of Ukrainian products to the EU market
Global milk market trends Increasing of milk production: European Union - 7%, New Zealand - 13%, USA - 3% compared to the previous year The changes in the geography of world trade as a result of Russian sanctions Increasing of the requirements for dairy products quality Prices of milk and dairy products show a downward trend In 2015 the quota for milk production in the EU will be abolished
Global exporters of dairy products Whole milk powder 6% 3% 11% New Zealand 21% 59% EU Argentina Australia Other Butter 6% 4% 2% 9% 17% 62% New Zealand EU USA Australia Argentina India Other 24% Skimmed milk powder 0% 4% 9% 29% 34% EU USA New Zealand Australia India Other 4% 5% Cheese 11% 46% 17% 15% EU USA New Zealand Australia Argentina Ukraine Other Source: milknet.ru
Global importers of dairy products 4% 4% 3% 7% 7% Whole milk powder 7% 42% 27% China Algeria Brazil Indonesia Russia Philippines Taiwan 7% 4% 2% 5% 7% 13% 19% Butter 43% Russia EU Mexico Australia Taiwan USA Ukraine 12% 13% Skimmed milk powder 15% 20% Mexico Indonesia 20% China Russia 7% 13% Algeria Philippines Other 7% 7% 7% 7% 11% 10% Cheese 20% 32% Russia Japan USA Mexico Korea Australia EU Source: milknet.ru
Activation of dairy products trade with Russian Federation Український клуб аграрного бізнесу, 2014 www.ucab.ua (044) 236 20 79
EU Dairy market, 2013 Cow population Milk production Milk processing 23,4 mln 153,4 mln. t 141,7 mln. t Production Export Import self-sufficiency, % Fresh dairy products (drinking milk, cream, acidified milk, buttermilk and milk-based drinks), thous. t 46 495 578 28 101,2% Dried skimmed milk, thous. t 1 092 407 5 158,3 Dried whole milk, thous. t 698 374 3 217,2% Butter, thous. t 2 182 116 23 104,5% Cheese, thous. t 9 703 787 75 107,9% ec.europa.eu; clal.it
Main importers of milk products to EU markets Dried skimmed milk Norway 62 % USA 22 % Algeria -10 % Switzerland, Island, Syria, New Zealand Butter New Zealand 86 % USA 8 % Switzerland 5 % Australia, Island, Canada Cheese Switzerland 68 % New Zealand 16% Australia, Norway, USA, Canada, Island ec.europa.eu Украинский клуб аграрного бизнеса, 2014 www.ucab.ua (044) 236 20 79
Alternative markets for Ukrainian dairy products Development of existing markets: Kazakhstan Moldova Georgia Azerbaijan Armenia The development of markets in the reorientation of exporters: Saudi Arabia South Africa Indonesia Vietnam Philippines Taiwan Mastering of basic import markets: China Algeria Japan
China Import of dairy products Import, thous. t 2012 Import, thous. t 2013 Packaged drinking milk 80 161 Dried milk for infant nutrition (Infant formula (HS 19011000) Skimmed milk powder 92 123 168 235 Whole milk powder 406 619 Butter 48 52 Cheese 39 47 Main exporters Germany - 47% New Zealand - 14.5% Australia - 13.5% France, USA, Poland Netherlands - 20.5% France - 18.3% New Zealand - 16% Singapore, Denmark, Ireland New Zealand - 53% US -22.7% Germany - 7% New Zealand - 91% Australia - 2.3% Uruguay, Argentina New Zealand - 89 Australia - 3.5% France - 2.6 Belgium, USA, Argentina New Zealand - 36.2% Australia - 23.8% USA - 21.3% France, Italy, Denmark www.clal.it
Meat and meat products
Production of beef and veal, thous. t 350 300 317 250 302 291 283 255 200 150 100 97 97 111 102 97 50 0 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* Agricultural enterprises Households *Forecas Source: State Statistic Service of Ukraine
Експорт м яса ВРХ Beef, fresh or chilled January-October 2014-5.5 thous. t ( 43 %) Revenue $20,7 mln.usa Frozen beef January-October 2014-12.9 thous. t ( 33%) Revenue - $44.9 mln.usa Structure revenue from exports of fresh and chilled beef 1,80% 1,77% 0,33% Structure of revenue from exports of frozen beef 15,04% 7,75% 45,35% 96,10% 31,87% Russia Belarus Moldova Other countries Russia Belarus Moldova Other countries Source: Customs statistics of Ukraine
Exports of live cattle January-August 2014-16 thousand. Units (4.7 thousand tons). $ 8 mln. January-August 2013-3.5 thousand. Units (1.1 thousand tons). $ 3.1 mln. Main export markets: Azerbaijan - 76% Syria - 12% Libya - 7% Russia - 4% Barriers to exports: Export duties in 2014-20%
Pork production in Ukraine, thous. t 450 400 350 300 399 397 362 386 384 353 403 339 305 304 250 200 150 100 50 0 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* Agricultural enterprises Households *Forecast Source: State Statistic Service of Ukraine Український клуб аграрного бізнесу, 2014 www.ucab.ua (044) 236 20 79
Export of pork January-October 2014-6.3 thous. t( in 2 times) Revenue - $18.7 mln. Structure of revenue from exports of pork 0,8% 1,0% 27,3% Moldova Russia Other countries Belarus 70,8% Source: Customs statistics of Ukraine
Production of poultry meat in Ukraine, thous. t 1200 1021 1000 991 800 811 868 967 600 400 200 184 207 202 190 186 0 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* Agricultural enterprises Households *Forecast Source: State Statistic Service of Ukraine
Exports of poultry and its by-products January-October 2014 143.1 thous. t ( 21 %) Revenue - $231.3 mln. 53,0% Structure of revenue from exports of poultry and its by-products 20,9% 15,3% Iraq Netherlands Kazakhstan Other countries Poultry shipments to the EU under the quota - 12.36 thous. t (January-October 2014) 10,9% Source: Customs statistics of Ukraine
Meat foreign trade Export, thous. t 200 150 100 50 24 23 5 8 146 180 2013 2014* 0 Beef Pork Poultry Import, thous. t 200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 3,7 2,0 150 35 71 50 2013 2014* 0,0 Beef Pork Poultry *Forecast Source: Customs statistics of Ukraine
Meat and meat products: results of 2014 The successful development of the European market by Ukrainian poultry exporters Reduction of meat imports, especially pork The positive trade balance of meat and by-products (10 months + $113.8 mln.) The rapid increase in meat prices Reducing of the demand for meat from the public
Expectations of development of Ukrainian meat industry in 2015 Increasing of production of pork and poultry Stagnation of beef production Increasing of the share of domestic meat on market Activation of work on obtaining a permit for export of beef and pork
Meat Market of the European Union 2013 Production Export Import self-sufficiency, % Beef, thous. t Pork, thous. t Poultry meat, thous. t Sheep and goat meat, thous. t 7 531 270 304 99,6% 22 415 2233 16 111,0% 12 841 1310 793 104,2% 958 70 200 88,1% ec.europa.eu
The main suppliers of meat to the EU market Beef Brazil - 44% Uruguay - 15.4% Argentina - 14.3% Australia, USA, New Zealand Pork Switzerland - 50% Chile - 16% Serbia - 9% Norway, Thailand Poultry meat Brazil - 63.2% Thailand - 28.1% Chile, China, Argentina, Switzerland, Israel, Ukraine Sheep and goat meat New Zealand - 84.4% Australia - 9.3% Macedonia, Uruguay, Argentina ec.europa.eu
NICHE PRODUCTS
Exports of honey January-October 2014-27.2 thous. t ($70.9 mln.) January-October 2013-16.7 thous. t ($40.6 mln.) Main export markets: Germany - 34.5% USA - 23.2 Poland - 17.7% Turkey, Spain, Italy, Lithuania, Canada Quota for duty-free exports to the EU - 5 thous. t Джерело: Митна статистика України
Export of niche animal products, January-October 2014 Sheep and goat - 5 t (Azerbayzhan - 79%, Cyprus - 5.3%, Hong Kong - 5.3%) Meat of rabbit - 309 kg (Panama) What niche products have the potential to export?
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