Presentation on Climate Mitigation and Adaptation in Bangladesh Dr. Atiq Rahman Executive Director: Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) Nansen Centers 25 years Colloquium in honour of Fridtjof Nansens 150 years anniversary at VilVite Conference Center, Thormøhlens gate 51, Bergen Friday 18 November 2011 BANGLADESH CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES House # 10, Road # 16A, Gulshan- 1, Dhaka- 1212, Bangladesh Phone: (+880-2) 8857593, 8852614, 8852904; Fax: (+880-2) 8851417 E-mail: info@bcas.net; Website: www.bcas.net 1
Outline of the discussion Geographical location and vulnerability context Climate Change Impacts: Bangladesh Case Study Development Climate Change Linkages Climate Change, Poverty and MDGs Linkages Climate smart adaptation Climate Change, Disaster and Displacement Government of Bangladesh s response Community Based Adaptation Concluding Remarks 2
Relief Map of South Asia http://www.flickr.com/photos/ocean_of_stars/2785428699/sizes/o/in/photostream/ Pakistan Nepal India Myanmar
The variability of onset, breaks and duration of the summer monsoon have enormous effects on water resources, agriculture, economics, ecosystems, and human mortality throughout South Asia and Bangladesh as well. Location of Bangladesh in relation to major river basins in South Asia
Climate Change Impacts: Context of Bangladesh The very geophysical location makes the country most vulnerable to climate change Impacts Himalayans in the north Sea (the Bay of Bengal) in the south with long coast Vast deltaic floodplain and riverine Charland Large population with low resources base Wide spread poverty, malnutrition and food insecurity Frequent nature and man-made disasters Poor governance and institutional weakness Climate change is additional threat to: Overall development of the country Poverty alleviation and livelihood promotion Sectoral development (agriculture, water, health etc.) Infrastructure and rural development Disaster preparedness and risk reduction
Bangladesh at the lower end of Himalayan River Systems vbangladesh is at the lower end of the Himalayan drainage ecosystem; vcomprises only 8 percent of the GBM system and carry about 92 percent of water flow; vaverage monsoon flow varies from 80,000 to 140,000 cubic meter/sec vcarries 1.4-2.5 billion tons of sediment to the Bay of Bengal
Location of the Bangladesh in South Asia
The Complex River Systems 1. Unique geographical location 2. Dominance of flood plain 3. Himalayan drainage eco-system Water Tower Water Sink 8
Vulnerability to Extreme Climatic Events: BANGLADESH CASE STUDY 7 major region based impacts 1. Sea Level Rise 2. Increase of cyclone (Intensity & Frequency) 3. Enhanced intrusion of salt water 4. Increased flood (Intensity & Frequency) 5. Drought 6. River Bank Erosion 7. Erratic Rainfall These above impacts combined to create 4 generic impacts 8. Food security 9. Water security 10. Health impacts 11. Displacement and migration 9
Vulnerability to Extreme Climate Events: Bangladesh case study Sea Level Rise 10
Cyclone 11
Erratic Rainfall 12
Flood Flood 2004 13
Flood Inundated Area during Different Floods and Number of Occurrences in Last 30 Years Flooded Area Area affected % Last 30 years Last 10 years Return period (Years) 2 5 10 20 25 50 100 20 30 37 43 52 60 70 5 3 2 2 3 2 1 1 For Example: A flood event with return period of 20 years has already occurred twice during the last 10 years. 14
River Bank Erosion 15
EXISTING DROUGHT SITUATION, AND DROUGHT SITUATION IN THE YEARS 2030 & 2075 DROUGHT CLASSES (RABI SEASON) Very Severe Drought Severe Drought Moderate Drought Less Moderate Drought Slight Drought EXISTING DROUGHT Very Slight to Nil Severe & Moderate Moderate & Less Moderate Sunderbans Forest ADDITIONAL DROUGHT PRONE AREAS IN 2030 ADDITIONAL DROUGHT PRONE AREAS IN 2075 16
Health Source: IPCC AR4, 2007 17
Food Security About 2.5 to 10% decrease in crop yield in 2020 and 5 to 30% by 2050 compared with 1990 CO2 levels Decrease production of livestock, Increase of pest attack Decrease production of fisheries 18
CC-WatSan-Health-Livelihood-Poverty Poverty Health CC Livelihood WatSan 60-70% global impacts of climate change can be reflected in water. This is: a. Too much water b. Too little water c. Wrong type of water d. Wrong timing of water 19
Bangladesh: Major Concerns Water Security Food Security Livelihood Security Health Security Energy Security qall ARE LINKED WITH POVERTY qeach AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE 20
POVERTY-CLIMATE CHANGE LINKAGES POVERTY INCREASED Flooding Damage to crop, fisheries, LS LOSS OF LIVELIHOOD No water for Crop, fisheries, LS Reduce production due to salinity Heavy rainfall in short time cause damage to crop No rainfall during seedling, transplantation, tillering, pinnacle initiation stage Food Security & Health Too much water Too little water Wrong type of water Wrong timing of water Destroy sanitation system Water pollution through pathogens Mosquito breeding Poor sanitation Saline water Water polluted with fecal coli form Water logging Vector (Virus) Sanitation & Health HEALTH HAZARD POVERTY INCREASED 21
Climate Change, Poverty and MDGs Linkages Climate Change Signal Temperature (e.g. heat waves) Hydrology (e.g. Floods & Droughts) Extreme Events (e.g. Cyclone & Hurricanes) Poverty Alleviation/MDGs Source: Saleem et al.., 2006 22
Impact-Vulnerability-Adaptation: Relationship Impact Event = X Intensity of Event Baseline X Conditions Adaptive Capacity
WHY POVERTY IS A CONCERN? Cyclone is not the only disaster poverty is the main disaster...dr. M. Yunus, (Cyclone 91, BCAS)
Time (Year) DISASTER/HEALTH HAZARD $ (D E V)
Schematic Diagram Showing Severe Impact of Disaster and Health Hazards on Poverty and SD $ (D E V) Time (Year)
OUTPUT WELL-BEING INDEX PROGRESSION OF HOUSEHOLD WELL-BEING DISASTER HEALTH HAZARD POVERTY LINE HOUSEHOLD LIFE PERIOD/YEARS 27
Climate smart adaptation benefits Dividend in climate smart development Development ($) Climate impacted development loss Time (t) years Development over time in Climate Change Impacted scenario and Adaptation Achievements 28
Climate Change Science and Sustainable Development Linkage Key Components of Sustainable Development Economic growth [goods & services] Environment [integrity & sustainability] Society [Justice & Access]
Climate Change regional and global policy implications Climate Change Development Disasters Displacement 30
Displacement potential and future strategies Strategic Preference of Displacement Reluctance to Move q Very few want to move from their own homestead; Move to Proximate Cities q First move to adjacent urban centres (social network,, food habits, language (dialect) familiarity Move to Megacities q National cities/megacities (mostly in slums) Move to Abroad (limited) q International migration Mass migration q Who goes where???? Climate Impacted Displacement Decision 31
Bangladesh Response to Climate Government of Bangladesh s response Change NAPA BCCSAP
Government of Bangladesh s response Two funds created vbangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund $200 million GoB own fund and programs are being implemented by GoB agencies vbangladesh Climate Resilience Fund- $120 million from development partners managed by World bank 33
National Action Plan on Adaptation (NAPA), Bangladesh NAPA serves as simplified and direct channels of communication for information relating to the urgent and immediate adaptation needs to climate change. NAPA has been prepared by the Ministry of Environment and Forests as a response to the decision of the COP7 of the UNFCCC.
The Outcomes of NAPA vpreparation and approval of NAPA with identification of Priority Areas (November 2005) vagreement on 15 Project Ideas as Immediate and Urgent needs vsubmission to UNFCCC
Bangladesh Climate Change and Strategy Action Plan (BCCSAP) qonly the last step in a long journey Since 1998 various studies, modeling, Bangladesh in IPCC qbangladesh in global negotiations; NAPA & BAP submission by Bangladesh all contributed to the Strategy formulation and Action Plan q Basic principles of Strategy q Four securities inviolate Food Water Energy and Livelihood (including health) qall four Bali elements adaptation, mitigation, technology transfer and finance to be addressed Integral part of development process, poverty reduction and employment generation qcommensurate institutional and human capacity development
SIX PILLARS of Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) (1) Food Security, Social Protection and Health; (2) Comprehensive Disaster Management; (3) Infrastructure Development; (4) Research and Knowledge Management; (5) Mitigation and low-carbon development; and (6) Capacity Building and Institutional Development The Action Plan consists of 44 programs and 145 projects for implementation within the time period of 2009-2018. BCCSAP will be an integral part of national development policies, plans and programs.
PEOPLE S ADAPTATION ADAPTATION IS HAPPENING qclimate Change is here and now. qcommunities across the world facing impacts and adapting. qsome are adapting in the fullest knowledge of CC impacts qothers are adapting intuitively/experientially Peoples response
Community Based Adaptation BCAS with IIED has organized five world conference on community based adaptation (CBAs) o Sharing of experiences of CBAS by scientists, practitioners and policy makers o Emergence of a science of CBA 39
o Increasing sectoral and integrated CBA approaches o CBA 4 Dar es Salam, Tanzania, November 2009-CBA in Africa o CBA 5 Dhaka, Bangladesh March 2011-Beyond pilots o CBA 6- April 2012 Vietnam-communicating CBA 40
Peoples response 350 international Participants to the 5 th International Conference on CBA (Community Based Adaptation ) visited sites in March 2011
CONCLUDING REMARKS 42
CRITICAL ISSUES- 1 vmitigation must, adaptation too vimplementing principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities vbali Action Plan omitigation oadaptation ofinancing and otechnology transfer 43
CRITICAL ISSUES- 2 vcop 15 Copenhagen 2009- Hopenhagen to Brokenhaven!!! vcop 17, Durban, the burial of Kyoto Protocol vtomorrows world: enhanced disasters and extreme events vpoorest will be hardest hit, rich keep on emitting vwho will reduce emission, when??? 44
CRITICAL ISSUES- 3 vannex 1 countries paralyzed by economic crisis and financial mismanagement vglobal leaders incapacitated vclimate change impacts more visible vcc the greatest injustice in human history 45
Raised Plinth Height Source: Char Livelihood Program of DFID
Homestead Garden on Raised Plinth
Raised Plinth of Toilet
Livestock During Flood Raising Plinth
Preservation of Household Assets Over False Ceiling Storage of Food during Flood
Storage of Safe Drinking Water & Dry Food
Community based rain water harvesting Household based rain water harvesting
Locally Known as Baira Cultivation Floating Garden During Flood
Raised Tube Well
Store Extra Furnace
Protecting Income Generating Activity Protecting from Erosion
Water Collection in Hilly Region
Community People Using the Water of Re-excavated Pond
Pond Sand Filter
Household Based Rain Water Harvesting in Drought Prone Area
Drip Irrigation
Household Based Irrigation Farming
Crab Farming in Saline Water
Saline Tolerant Rice
Chickpeas in Drought Area
Local Adaptation Practices in Nepal Making Soil heap Seed storage system/seed bank Adjustment in Cropping pattern Hanging Nursery
THANK YOU
WAY FORWARD Things are happening Cooperation in Action Water-Energy Security Nexus Climate Change: An Emerging Threat for South Asia THANK YOU 69