Impacts of alternative climate and bioenergy policies for GHG mitigation from US forests Nicklas Forsell Ecosystems Services and Management Program International Institute for Applied System Analysis
Presentation overview Topic 1: Expected contribution from the LULUCF sector by individual countries for reaching their own INDC targets. Olga Turkovska, Mykola Gusti, Michael Obersteiner Topic 2: Development of EU wide LULUCF reference scenarios. Stefan Frank, Mykola Gusti, Petr Havlik Topic 3: Cross sectorial implications of increasing bio-energy demand. Petr Havlik, Pekka Lauri Topic 4: Assessment of wood use mitigation options. Mykola Gusti, Petr Havlik Topic 5: Upcoming topics for modeling of policies.
Paris and the INDC s UNEP (2015). The Emissions Gap Report 2015. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Paris and the INDC s Rogelj J, et al. (2016). Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 C.
Topic 1: LULUCF within the INDC s The role of the LULUCF sector within the INDC s has been assessed within an IIASA/PBL/NewClimate project for the DC CLIMA. Main aim of the assessment was to analyse: What are the countries own BAU LULUCF development? How much are countries relying on mitigations within the LULUCF sector for reaching their INDC targets? Analysis was based on countries own reporting and publically available information: INDC s, National Communications, Biannual Update Reports, Supporting documents from official sources. Based on official information, a National-BAU and a National-INDC development were created. Only policies directly focusing on the LULUCF sector were considered.
Coverage of LULUCF within the INDC s Each of the 160 INDC s submitted by the Parties to the UNFCCC by the 15 th of December 2015 were assessed. LULUCF is covered and measures and/or specific targets are explicit LULUCF is covered but no measures and/or specific targets are listed LULUCF is partly covered LULUCF is not covered Algeria, Angola, Australia, Azerbaijan, Benin, Bolivia, Brazil, Burundi, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Central African Republic, Chad, China, Comoros, R of Congo, DR Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Guyana, Haiti, India, Indonesia, Japan, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Morocco, Namibia, Norway, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, Uganda, Uruguay, Zambia Afghanistan, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Armenia, Bahamas, Belize, Bhutan, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Brunei Darussalam, Burkina Faso, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Djibouti, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Grenada, Guatemala, Guinea Bissau, Iceland, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kiribati, Kyrgyzstan, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Lichtenstein, Malaysia, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mexico, Mozambique, Myanmar, New Zealand, Niger, Nigeria, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Rep. of Moldova, Russia, Rwanda, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, San Marino, Sao Tome and Principe, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Somalia, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Switzerland, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, United States, Vanuatu, Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of), Vietnam Bangladesh, Cameroon, Chile, Côte d'ivoire, EU28 Member States, Gambia, Georgia, Guinea, Lebanon, Liberia, Mongolia, Samoa, Thailand, Tonga, Zimbabwe Albania, Andorra, Bahrain, Barbados, Belarus, Botswana, Cook Islands, Cuba, Egypt, Fiji, Honduras, Israel, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Iraq, Jamaica, Kuwait, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Micronesia (Federated States of), Monaco, Montenegro, Nauru, Niue, Oman, Pakistan, Palau, Qatar, Rep. of Macedonia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saudi Arabia, Seychelles, South Korea, Swaziland, Trinidad and Tobago, Turkmenistan, Tuvalu, United Arab Emirates, Yemen 38 Parties 68 Parties 42 Parties 39 Parties 76.2% of global net LULUCF emissions in 2010 25.6% of global net LULUCF emissions in 2010-4.2% of global net LULUCF emissions in 2010 0.4% of global net LULUCF emissions in 2010
National BAU LULUCF development On the aggregate global level, projections would lead to an increase of net LULUCF emissions in 2020 and 2030. 1.3 GtCO 2 eq
National INDC development Fulfillment of the INDC (including conditional and un-conditional targets) would decrease the global net LULUCF emissions as compared to 2010 levels. Parties are targeting large reductions of emissions and increases of sinks within the LULUCF sector for reaching their INDC targets. 2.2 GtCO 2 eq 0.9 GtCO 2 eq
National INDC development
LULUCF and the INDC s The role of the LULUCF sector within the INDC s has also been assessed by JRC in an individual study. There are differences between the two studies in the data selection for specific countries both in terms of historical level of emissions/removal and projections. Projections of emissions and removals for the two studies below are both expressed relative to 2010 estimates for comparion purposes. 2.5 2 1.5 1 2.2 3.1 0.5 0 0.9-0.5 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1.0-1 -1.5 JRC - Global LULUCF net emissions Gt CO 2 eq per year Business-as-usual (INDC / NC) INDCs Grassi et al. Quantifying the contribution of the Land use sector to the Paris Climate Agreement. JRC Science and Policy report
Topic 1: Key take home messages On a global level, the national BAU is expected to lead to an increase of net LULUCF emissions by 1.3 Gt CO 2 eq (range: 0.7-2.1) in 2030 relative to reported estimates for 2010. The full implementation of all INDC s (unconditional and conditional) is expected to decrease net LULUCF emissions by 0.9 GtCO 2 eq (range: 0.5-1.3) in 2030 as compared to 2010 historical reported estimates. The expected contribution from LULUCF in meeting INDC at global level is about 20-25% of total emission reduction. Den Elzen, M. et al. 2015. Enhanced policy scenarios for major emitting countries. Analysis of current and planned climate policies, and selected enhanced mitigation measure. Admiraal, A., DMIRAAL, A., et al. 2015. Assessing Intended Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris climate agreement what are the projected global and national emission levels for 2025 2030?
Topic 2: EU LULUCF Referance levels The development of EU wide Reference scenarios is performed for the Directorate-General for Climate Action, the Directorate-General for Energy, and the Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport. Main aim of the assessment is to analyse: The development of EU MS Reference Scenarios in consultation with Member States. Explore policy proposals and evaluate their potential energy, transport, economic, social and environmental consequences. Models assess the effectiveness of policies already in place as well as the likely impact of policy proposals. The IIASA team itself delivers: Projections for each individual EU MS Assessment of policy options and cross sectorial LULUCF MACC s
Topic 2: EU LULUCF Referance levels The development of EU wide Reference scenarios is performed for the Directorate-General for Climate Action, the Directorate-General for Energy, and the Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport. Main aim of the assessment is to analyse: The development of EU MS Reference Scenarios in consultation with Member States. Explore policy proposals and evaluate their potential energy, transport, economic, social and environmental consequences. Models assess the effectiveness of policies already in place as well as the likely impact of policy proposals. The IIASA team itself delivers: Projections for each individual EU MS Assessment of policy options and cross sectorial LULUCF MACC s
Model inter-linkages being applied
LULUCF reference development Reference projections to 2050 for each EU MS are developed in consultation with each MS and topic experts. LULUCF sink is expected to decline in the future and changes in the forest sector are dominant driven by increasing timber demand and aging forest. 8 th European Forestry Commission. and Agriculture Energy, GHG transport Modeling and Forum GHG emission trends 2050. EU Reference scenario 2016 (2016).
Topic 2: Key take home messages The construction of the EU Reference scenarios has become a very valuable tool for performing quantity based assessment of policies. Fluctuation in LULUCF projections between assessment have been higher than that of other sectors, in particular energy sector emission projections. Key issues under discussions: Sharing of forest inventory data and transparency of modeling efforts. Projections of national deforestation rates. Future composition of woody product demand. European Commission. Energy, transport and GHG emission trends 2050. EU Reference scenario 2016 (2016). European Commission COM/2016/482 - Proposal for a Regulation on binding annual greenhouse gas emission reductions by Member States from 2021 to 2030. European Commission COM/2016/479 - Proposal on the inclusion of greenhouse gas emissions and removals from land use, land use change and forestry into the 2030 climate and energy framework.
Topic 3: EU Bioenergy assessment The Resource Efficiency implications for increasing bioenergy demand was performed for the DG Environment in joint support from JRC. Main aim of the assessment was to analyse: What are the LULUCF and AFOLU impacts of increasing EU bioenergy demands? Analysis was based on the following information: Prospective scenarios focused on ongoing policy discussion within the EU on sustainability of biomass use. Baseline scenario: Account for EU 2020 mitigation targets but not the 2030 climate and energy package, nor the 2050 GHG mitigation target. Emission Reduction scenario (REDU): Accounts for the EU 2020 mitigation target, the 2030 climate and energy packet, and the 2050 GHG mitigation target.
GLOBIOM Global scale model based detailed spatial resolution (>200k cells) Partial equilibrium Agricultural, forest and bioenergy markets 52 world regions, each EU28 MS are explicitly represented Bilateral trade flows Consistent with EUROSTAT data Bottom-up approach Explicit description of production technologies Supply side based on NUTS2 administrative units EU Common Market Linear programming approach Maximization of consumer + producer (incl. trade costs) surplus Non linear expansion costs Time step: 10 years, time horizon: 2030/2050 but also 2100
Representation of wood flows in GLOBIOM GLOBIOM covers the main primary feedstocks, by-products, and semifinished HWP products. Wood flows as of 2010 is calibrated according to FAOSTAT.
Wood consumption for material and energy production in EU28 Study EUWood Indufor ReceBio Baseline Reference year 2010 2011 2010 2030 2050 Million m³ Total Wood Consumption 825 942 841 1004 1106 Total Material Use* 457 649 535 613 686 Wood Products Industry** 314 308 367 436 498 Pulp and Paper 341 Pulp 143 162 172 182 Total Energy Use, excl. SRC 368 293 306 346 359 Wood products industry side streams*** Wood used primarily for energy**** 150 155 188 216 143 151 158 143 Energy Biomass from SRC 0 44 60 Energy use, % 45% 31% 36% 39% 38% Material use, % 55% 69% 64% 61% 62% Use of wood for energy increases relatively more than material use Industrial sidestreams become increasingly important as energy feedstock
Impact of increasing bioenergy demand within EU28 Improvements in energy efficiency by 2030 lead to lower forest harvest level. Forest harvests increase by 17% by 2050, driven by increased HWP production. With higher bioenergy demand, energy use starts to drive harvest levels.
Impact of increasing bioenergy demand within EU28
Impact of increasing bioenergy demand within EU28 Minor net effects on material use and large increases in energy use can be fulfilled by increasing harvest, changes in wood flows, and increased imports
LULUCF emissions for the EU Reduced wood harvest by improvments in energy efficiency by 2030 Increasinag wood demand by 2050 decreases deforestaiton emissions more than the increase of the forest management sink.
Global total land use GHG emissions EU28 Rest of the World (RoW) Increased bioenergy demand leads to EU net savings of AFOLU emissions Leakage effect of within the LULUCF and Agriculture sector can be substantial
Topic 3: Key take home message Development of the bioenergy sector is seen to have an overall small impacts on the aggregate material sector, but large changes are expected in the flow of wood and composition of feedstocks being used. Development of the bioenergy sector within the EU based on woody biomass feedstocks can lead to domestic net LULUCF saving. We estimate that the EU 2050 mitigation targets will lead to an increased EU reliance of import of wood pellets from the Rest of the World. Forsell, N. et al. 2016. Study on impacts on resource efficiency of future EU demand for bioenergy (ReceBio). Final report.
Topic 4: Wood use mitigation options The CLIMWOOD2030 study was performed for the Directorate-General for Climate Action. Main aim of the assessment was to quantify the EU forest sector contribution to climate change mitigation: Carbon sequestration and storage in EU forests. Carbon storage in harvested wood products in the EU. Substitution of wood products for functionally equivalent materials. Substitution of wood for other sources of energy. Displacement of emissions from forests outside the EU. On request, the assessment was performed until 2030. Christopher Prins
Wood use mitigation options Analysis was based on the following scenarios: ClimWood2030 reference scenario: assuming achievement of official EU energy and climate targets for 2020, with BAU development until 2030; Increase forest carbon stock in existing EU forests: exploring the consequences of a decision to focus policy on increasing the carbon stock in EU-28 forest, notably by reducing domestic harvest rates; Cascade use increase recovery of solid wood products: exploring the consequences of decisions to encourage cascade use by improving the recovery of solid wood products, for material and energy purposes; Cascade use prevent first use of biomass for energy: exploring the consequences of decisions to encourage cascade use by ensuring that wood of sufficient quality and dimensions harvested in EU-28 forests is first used as raw material, and only subsequently as a source of energy; Strongly increase material wood use: exploring the consequences of success in increasing wood consumption in its major markets, especially the construction sector, by innovation, investment and promotion.
Outcome of policy options 100 50 Mt CO 2 e yr -1 0-50 -100-150 -200-250 Increase carbon stock in existing EU forests (II) Cascading - increased recovery of solid wood products (III) Cascading - prevent first use of biomass for energy (IV) Strongly increase use of wood (V) EU-28 Forest emissions/removals Energy substitution Total EU-28 GHG impact HWP emissions/removals Material substitution Annual average impact of scenarios for EU-28 parameters on GHG balances as compared to the ClimWood2030 reference scenario, period 2021-2030, detailed per contributor [in Mt CO 2 e yr -1 ].
Topic 4: Key take home messages Integrated assessment of mitigation options are essential and inter-linked modelling approaches are available for such approaches. Timeframe of the assessment and coverage of affects is crucial and can lead very different conclusions. The carbon leakage effect of EU policies to the Rest of the World can be significant and at times fully offset EU carbon savings. Rüter S, Werner F, Forsell N, Prins C, Vial E, Levet A-L (2016). ClimWood2030, Climate benefits of material substitution by forest biomass and harvested wood products: Perspective 2030. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 142 p, Thünen Rep 42
Topic 5: Upcoming policy topics requesting modeling assessment A number of policy options are currently being discussed within the EU for which further modelling efforts is desired to assist the ongoing discussion: The impacts and benefits of circular economy improvements. Definition and policies to improve the cascading use of wood. Sustainability criteria's relating to the use of woody biomass for material and energy purposes. Development of a bio-based economy and production of bio-based materials.
Thanks for your attention Nicklas Forsell forsell@iiasa.ac.at