The Paris Agreement and the EU's response UNIVERSITEIT HASSELT 26 Mei 2016 Tom van Ierland DG Klimaat Afdeling C1 Economische Analyse en Strategie Europese Commissie
The need for global action The Paris Agreement
Climate science IPCC (2013) Warming of the climate systems is unequivocal and observed changes are unprecedented on scales of decades to millennia. Human influence on the climate system is clear. Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes to the atmosphere, land and oceans in all regions of the globe. 3
Emissions of major economies, 1990-2012 (all greenhouse gases, all sources & sinks) (Source: historical emissions data: inventories data to the UNFCCC (http://unfccc.int/national_reports/) 4
1992 Rio 'World Summit' UNFCCC UN Framework convention on change 1997 Kyoto Protocol Divide developed / developing countries Covered only +/- 12% of global emissions 2015 Paris Agreement Recognition that the world has changed climate A changed UN approach : balance between 'top down' and 'bottom up' 5
The Paris Agreement A legally binding, universal agreement Ambitious long-term goals (well-below 2 C/pursue 1.5 C/global peaking asap/climate neutrality in the second half of the century) Dynamic 5-year ambition cycle Enhanced transparency and accountability Greater emphasis on adaptation Support for poor and vulnerable countries 189 nationally determined contributions (NDCs) Climate Action 6
World emissions (GtC02e, total excluding sinks) and percent change in emission intensity per unit of GDP Source: POLES JRC Model 7
INDCs : Global cumulative investment in the power sector, 2015 2040 (IEA WEO2015) 8
INDCs : Growth in renewable electricity generation, 2013-2040 (IEA WEO2015) 9
EU Climate Policies
2050 Low Carbon Economy Roadmap 80% domestic reduction in 2050 is feasible: With currently available technologies, With behavioural change only induced through prices If all economic sectors contribute to a varying degree & pace. Efficient pathway and milestones: -25% in 2020-40% in 2030-60% in 2040 100% 100% 80% Power Sector 80% Current policy 60% 40% Residential & Tertiary Industry 60% 40% 20% Transport 20% Non CO 2 Agriculture 0% Non CO 2 Other Sectors 0% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 11
Mt CO2 equivalent Total EU GHG emission trend 6.000 5.000 20% reduction compared to 1990 4.000 3.000-23% in 2014 At least 40% reduction compared to 1990 2.000 1.000 80% reduction compared to 1990 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Historic emissions Projections with existing measures (based on MS submissions) 12 Source: EEA, Commission
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Index 1990=100 EU : Decoupling growth from emissions 160 140 + 46% GDP 120 100 80 60 40 GDP GHG emissions GHG intensity - 23% GHG emissions Source: European Commission based on data compiled by EEA 13
EU :2030 Climate and Energy Framework 14
2015 Important policy initiatives under the Energy Union ETS review 2016 EU ESD : targets for MS including LULUCF Transport decarbonisation Energy efficiency Electricity market design Renewables (including biomass, biofuels) Integrated climate and energy governance 15
ETS: the European carbon market Source: adapted from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2015) 16
EU Emission Trading System (ETS) One EU wide target : -21% in 2020 and -43% in 2030 One single EU carbon price Harmonised infrastructure and operation + delivery of target + cost-effective reductions - weak incentives for alternatives (low prices) 17
EU : Renewable energy : today 16 % of energy use in the EU (Mtoe) 18 Source: Eurostat
Renewables policies contribute to reduce technology cost Wind Solar 19
A Belgian Perspective
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ESD MtCO2 eq (million tonnes) % Share of RES in gross final energy consumption Belgium's progress - ESD and RES targets - 82 80 78 RES 2020 target: 13% 14% 12% 76 74 72 10% 8% 70 68 66 ESD 2020 limit: 67,7 MtCO2 eq 6% 4% 64 62 2% 60 0% Share of RES in gross final energy consumption (%) *ESD GHG emissions (MtCO2 eq) ESD projected (MtCO2 eq) ESD anuual limits (MtCO2 eq) * Note: final ESD GHG emissions review to be concluded in 2016 Source: European Commission, EEA, Eurostat
RES final energy consumption (PJ) Flemish Region - RES 2020 target 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Target 90,3 PJ Data source: Vito
Evolution of total GHG per sector (Flanders) Source: Vlaamse Milieumaatschappij (Lozingen in de lucht 2000-2014, VMM, 2015) Climate Action 23
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