Brochure of Project Results www.freightvision.eu FUNDED BY EUROPEAN COMMISSION 7TH RTD PROGRAMME
The FREIGHTVISION - Freight Transport 2050 Foresight project was funded by the Directorate General Mobility and Transport to design a long term vision for European freight transport in 2050 and to identify actions and research to progress appropriate freight transport measures in Europe to reach a sustainable European long-distance freight transport system with respect to the following four sustainability criteria: GHG Emissions 1, Fossil Fuel Share 2, Road Fatalities 3 and Congestion 4. The project was carried out as a foresight process encompassing four conferences in which the project team with the aid of more than 100 experts identified and developed an action plan for securing long term freight transport in Europe. This brochure provides insights into the freight transport visions and backcastings identified for 2035 and 2050, issues which need to be addressed and measures which were assessed to be part of future paths to assure an economically, environmentally, and socially sustainable freight transport system. PROJECT PARTNER AustriaTech - Federal Agency for Technological Measures, Vienna Prime Contractor Czech Technical University, Praha MOBYCON, Delft Institute of Communications and Computer Systems, Athens TSB Innovationsagentur Berlin GmbH, FAV, Berlin TransVer GmbH, Transport Research and Consultancy, Munich EGIS Mobilité, Lyon ProgTrans AG, Basel SUOMEN YMPÄRISTÖKESKUS, Helsinki TETRAPLAN A/S, Copenhagen Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby The Chancellor, Masters and Scholars of the University of Oxford, Oxford WU - Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna Policy Recommendation - Conclusions The main project s result is a policy recommendation, which consists of three parts. Part one is a recommendation for a Vision, i.e. on quantitative reduction targets to be politically agreed for the four sustainability criteria until 2020, 2035 and 2050. Part two is a recommendation to focus on specific Key Characteristics of the transport system, which will be crucial whether or not the Vision can be reached. Based on modelling results, goals and a prioritization are proposed for the Key Characteristics. Part three is a recommendation for RTD and transport policy actions to shape the Key Characteristics into the right direction. The most effective actions for each Key Characteristics are proposed forming the Action Plan. 1 Indicator for GHG Emissions: Total CO 2 equivalents (in tonnes) that are caused by long-distance freight transport by road, rail and inland waterways within the EU27 (including upstream). 2 Indicator for Fossil Fuel Share: Fossil Fuel energy input (primary energy) for long-distance freight transport by road, rail and inland waterways within the EU27 divided by total energy input (primary energy) for long-distance freight transport by road, rail and inland waterways within the EU27. 3 Indicator for Road Fatalities: The number of road fatalities within the EU27 attributable to heavy goods vehicles (HGV). 4 Indicator for Congestion: Delay time measured as the difference between travel time in a loaded network and an unloaded network multiplied with the number of trucks affected for an average day.
Recommendation 1: Vision The first recommendation is to get a political agreement on a European Vision for sustainable long-distance freight transport. We see it as important to define quantitative targets for each of the four sustainability criteria. These quantitative targets should be ambitious, but feasible, and also contain intermediate targets for the time horizons 2020 and 2035. We recommend the following Vision for the sustainability criteria: GHG Emissions (compared to 2005) Fossil Fuel Share (reduction to this level) -20% -70% -80% 80% 60% 40% Congestion (compared to 2005) -17% -33% -50% Road Fatalities (compared to -40% -65% -80% 2005) This Vision is very challenging, but according to our analysis it should be reachable. In the beginning of the FORESIGHT process some stakeholders thought we were unrealistic to define these ambitious goals, but at the end of the process there was a very high consensus about the feasibility of the Vision. of the sustainability criteria, the system boundaries are also set, and thus aspects out of the boundaries are not addressed within the Vision and all the consecutive steps like the identification of the Key Characteristics and the Action Plan. If different definitions for the indicators were used, the numbers would of course have to be adapted. Recommendation 2: Key Characteristics Prioritization and Targets The second recommendation is to focus the policy on the development of certain Key Characteristics and to prioritize them. By shaping these Key Characteristics by political means, the Vision can be reached. This recommendation is based on modelling results. First the most important Key Characteristics for reaching the Vision were identified. Then for each Key Characteristic, realistic quantitative targets for 2020, 2035 and 2050 were identified. If all targets are met, then the Vision will be reached according to the models. Based on these targets the Key Characteristics were prioritized. The prioritization is based on the relevance of each Key Characteristic-target-combination for reaching the Vision. Below is the list of the Key Characteristics, their priority and their targets for reaching the GHG Emissions and Fossil Fuel Share Vision: This Vision is based on our definition of the indicators. It is important to stress that by defining the indicators Key Characteristics Priority Target for Year Transportation performance (max. increase) 1. +30% +43% +44% Vehicle energy demand 2. -20% -40% -50% Carbon emissions in electricity production 3. -37.5% -61% -88% Electric engines in road freight transport 4. 0% 10% 25% Share of biofuels 5. 8% 24% 33% Biofuels upstream emissions -35% -83% -83% Efficiency in usage of vehicles 6. +8% +30% +50% Engine efficiency 7. +21% +40% +45% Modal split 8. Road 75% Road 70% Road 65% Rail 19% Rail 22,5% Rail 25% IWW 6% IWW 7,5% IWW 10% Share of electric rail 9. 66% 75% 80% Larger trucks 10. 2% 8% 10%
In addition to the above list the following Key Characteristics are relevant for Congestion (Due to the low number of Key Characteristics no prioritization was given): Key Characteristics Increased infrastructure capacity (vhkm) Target for Year +10% +20% +30% Price per vhkm +25% +50% +50% In addition to the above list the following Key Characteristic is relevant for Road Fatalities: Key Characteristic Reduced fatalities per vhkm Target for Year -15% -35% -60% The tables above are based only on the 4 sustainability criteria analyzed in this project. If other criteria, like economic criteria or other environmental criteria, were considered, the prioritization might be different. It should also be mentioned that there was no economic analysis performed within the project. The reason is that the project team assumed that it would have been out of the scale to do it within the given time horizon. This aspect might be useful to look at in further projects. In addition it should be mentioned that the selection of figures for the quantitative targets is subjective, and there are infinite other combinations of targets imaginable, where also the Vision could be reached. Each interest group would certainly set the targets differently according to their economic goals. Our goal was to be as objective as possible and we consider it as a good starting point for political discussions. Recommendation 3: Action Plan - Shaping the Key Characteristics The third recommendation is to focus policy actions on shaping the Key Characteristics. This bundle of actions combines RTD and transport policy measures. The project team developed a list of 35 actions from the areas of road transport, rail transport, IWW and maritime transport, supply chain, energy suppliers and vehicle suppliers. These actions were analyzed to get an overview about their pros and cons, RTD and transport policy aspects, possible milestones, and technical, economic and political feasibility. Then the most promising measures for each Key Characteristic were identified. Further information can be found in: Helmreich (eds), FREIGHTVISION - Sustainable European Freight Transport 2050 Springer, 2011. 1st Edition ISBN: 978-3-642-13370-1 Contact information AustriaTech Federal Agency for Technological Measures Ltd, Stephan Helmreich, Donau-City-Strasse 1, A-1220 Vienna, phone +43 / 1 / 26 33 444-23, helmreich@austriatech.org, www.austriatech.org www.freightvision.eu
Below is the list of the most effective Actions for each Key Characteristic: Key Characteristics Actions Transportation performance Vehicle energy demand Carbon emissions in electricity production Electric engines in road freight transport Share of biofuels and biofuels upstream emissions Efficiency in usage of vehicles Network optimization cargo owner E-freight Transport route planning and control Clean vehicle technologies I aerodynamics and rolling resistance Best available technologies CO 2 labelling Improved batteries Investment in road infrastructure Clean vehicle technologies II - biofuels Transport consolidation and cooperation Training for eco-driving Liberalization of cabotage Comment No direct transport policy, but many other measures have an indirect impact (Internalization of external costs, CO 2 labelling). E-freight: Development and deployment of an e-freight platform serving as a multi-modal communication system for freight forwarders, service providers and infrastructure providers; operational by 2020. Improving software solutions in order to display available real-time data on problem links, and integration of planning and control software to influence transport planning; should be finished until 2020. Emphasis on research in new materials, aerodynamic design and rolling resistance. Requirement of maximum aerodynamics and rolling resistance levels for trucks on certain corridors; adaption of weight and dimension directive to allow for new aerodynamics applications. A testing and certifying body is needed for technology assessment and for updating the best available technology. Enforcement of compliance to the certificates has to be integrated into traffic monitoring. The methodology to calculate a product s carbon footprint has to be standardized (EU-wide or even global level; e.g. ISO Standard) and implemented in integrated information systems. EU transport policy will have to adopt to EU climate policy targets and measures adopted under a quantitative agreement of CO 2 emissions; research on the effects of carbon tax and new truck market, modal split and CO 2 emissions of truck fleets will be needed. Funding for electric infrastructure; Synergy with the electrification of passenger transport; Gradual electrification beginning with auxiliary power and continuing with the lengthening of battery powered operation distance when new battery materials become commercially feasible. RTD on integration of energy and transport network; Demonstration Project on Electrified Green Corridor ; TEN funding primarily for greening the TEN network. Setting standards for upstream emissions; Impact assessment, footprint analysis and establishment of new biofuels for LDFT. Improvements in order to provide data-security for competing companies which merge their transports have to be achieved; charging empty runs or even not fully loaded trucks favours the implementation of Transport Consolidation & Cooperation. Technology for improving eco-driving, e.g. eco-meters, defensive driving, driving technique, incentive schemes for drivers; Coordination and harmonization of the implementation by EU. A directive including defensive driving should be developed & implemented. Fully liberalized within the European Union until 2020.
Engine efficiency Including CO 2 standards into HGV regulations Best available technologies Support on technological development (especially engine efficiency, aerodynamics, rolling resistance) is needed; Financial support (e.g. lower taxes or congestion charges) to promote technological development and to support acquisition of advanced vehicles. Modal split ERTMS By 2020 ERTMS implementation at main lines and equipment (about 4000 locos); By 2035 main lines and secondary lines are equipped with ERTMS (equipment and tracks). Intermodal transport Strengthening of the Marco Polo, the TEN programmes, and Member States national funding programmes; research on IT interfaces/links as well as the automation of transhipments. By 2020 50%, by 2035 75% and by 2050 90% of sea container transport over 500 km should be by rail or IWW. Share of electric rail Larger trucks Infrastructure capacity (vhkm) Price per vhkm Internalization of external cost Electrification of rail corridors CO 2 labelling Modifying the rules for HGV s weights and dimensions Investment in road infrastructure Investment in ITS Investment in road infrastructure Internalization of external cost Harmonization of policies in all modes of transport using the same criteria (with a particular focus on the measurement of external effects and a common system of determining the costs attributed to them). Research has to be done concerning uniform electrification systems and/or multisystem locomotives. Additional safety requirements may be imposed. Establishing a core network for EMS. Providing funding and applying temporary hard shoulder usage near and at bottlenecks provision of information to users of transport; Research is necessary on the detection dysfunctional vehicles. Research in reduction and elimination of different bottlenecks, e.g. by introducing ITS. Research in better usage of existing transport infrastructure. Congestion charge Develop and establish a rational concept to avoid congestion, i.e. aim at a distribution of traffic that keeps users of infrastructure moving. Fatalities per vhkm Investment in ITS Research in innovative cooperative assistance systems and their widespread application; Solving product liability which would permit a higher degree of automatisation, legal requirement for some safety systems on HGV. Harmonized speed limits On national level an action plan for implementing the harmonization of speed limits on critical roads. Training for eco-driving Enforcement of regulations New technology and more automatic control systems, e.g. speed, rest time, weight and weight distribution. Co-ordination of the enforcement focuses areas to ensure traffic safety. As can be seen above, policy has many options to reach the Key Characteristics targets. Each of the Actions can be applied in a stricter or not so strict manner, and can be adapted when needed or other information becomes available about developments of another Key Characteristic.