Open Forum for Agricultural Biotechnology October 2010 Ni Nairobi, bikenya Trends in potential GMO trade a case study for Kenya Kimani V Pesticides and Agricultural Resource Centre
Background International Food Policy Research Institute Import control and documentation requirements of living modified organisms for food, feed or processing: Implications of the Cartagena Protocol s article 18.2.a in Kenya 2009
Article 18.2 (a) of the Protocol 18 2. Each Party shall hll take measures to require that t documentation accompanying: (a) Living modified organisms that are intended for direct use as food or feed, or for processing, clearly identifies that they "may contain" living modified organisms and are not intended for intentional introduction into the environment, as well as a contact point for further information. The Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to this Protocol shall take a decision on the detailed requirements for this purpose, including specification of their identity and any unique identification, no later than two years after the date of entry into force of this Protocol;
Article 18 2(a) () explained Clear identification in the documentation that accompanies shipments of LMO FFPs implies that a system of detection, segregation and identity preservation may need to be set up.
Scope of study Potential GMO import data for the last 10 years Import regulations and documentation for GMOs both LMOS FFPS and introductions National l laboratory capacity for Analysis of GMOs.
Status of GM Crops and LMOs demand in Africa Maize high demand in some countries intermittent production interrupted by crises of various kinds Drought Civil strife and war Terrorism Poverty Distribution bottlenecks in some countries Need for imports into and transit thru either Africa or outside the continent. the size of the regional maize market (EAC and COMESA) was estimated at slightly over US$1billion in 2007( real share was 13% the rest was met by outside supplies EAGC)
Kenya potential GMOs demand Maize Soya y beans Cotton Canola(rape seed)
Maize Maize is the most important food crop in Kenya. The monthly maize demand dis estimated at 3 million bags Annual between 33 and 36 million bags (2.97 to 3.24 million metric tonnes) (Ministry of Agriculture, 2009). 27 th Oct 2010 PS Agriculture quoted 36 million bags in stock will be sufficient until Sept 2011
Maize The difference of about three million bags equivalent is estimated to be met by wheat, rice, sorghum, millet, cassava and other alternatives. These figures may be conservative estimates and quantities as high as 40million bags have been estimated (Boit, 2009).
Uses of maize Flour is used to make a meal called ugali This is widely accepted as the staple food for Kenya. This flour is also the component used to make Corn Soya blends used for special needs such as refugee mothers, children, as well as other blends with ih sorghum, millet, cassava, etc.
Uses of Maize Grain is cooked either as dry maize mixed with beans, peas, pigeon peas, cow peas or as green maize in various forms. It is also estimated that about 1% of maize production is used for livestock feed for cattle, poultry and pigs (Wiest, 2009). A small proportion of the maize is also extracted and used for production of corn oil.
Maize Production The crop is grown in almost all agro ecological l zones Two out of every three farms(kibaara, 2005). The country produces an annual average of about 28 million bags. Over the last 10 years, domestic production has stagnated between 24 and 28 million bags (Kibaara, 2005: MOA, 2009).
Maize imports Deficit of between 8 12 million bags is bridged by imports from several sources The quantity of imported maize has increased from 2.9 percent between 1970 and 1991 to an average of 12 percent in the last 10 years (www.fao.org). These estimates could be higher in some years. In 2008 2009 financial year for example, 5.8 million bags had been imported by March of 2009. There is substantial informal cross border maize trade Uganda/Kenya and Tanzania/Kenya. 1995: 84,000 tonnes for Ug/Kenya(Ackello Agutu Agutu et al)
Demand, Production& Imports 3500000 3000000 2500000 Tonne es 2000000 Demand 1500000 Production 1000000 Total imports 500000 Linear (Demand) 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year
Sources of maize imports Non GMO UNITED ARAB EMIRATES UNITED KINGDOM ITALY TANZANIA UKRAINE UGANDA BELGIUM FRANCE MADAGASCAR SWITZERLAND SWEDEN MALAWI ZAMBIA BULGARIA SAUDI ARABIA TUNISIA KYRGYZSTAN WESTERN SAHARA MOZAMBIQUE GMO(maize and others) CANADA SOUTH AFRICA UNITED STATES OF AMERICA INDIA ARGENTINA
Average maize imports to Kenya from GMO producing countries vs. total imports (1999 2008) 140000 Ton nnes 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 ARGENTINA UNITED STATES OF AMERICA SOUTH AFRICA TOTAL
Annual maize imports from GMO producing and non GMO producingcountries countries 1999 2008 450000 Tonnes 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ANNUAL TOTAL IMPORTS FROM NON GMO PRODUCERS ANNUALTOTAL IMPORTS FROM GMO PRODUCERS
Implications Kenyan production meets about 70% of its annual maize demand. This percentage may be less in some years depending on factors such as drought and political developments in Kenya and in the neighboring countries. Overall, there has been a steady increase in maize imports over time. South African exports have been consistently it tl increasing and in the last year, imports of over 100, 000 tonnes have been recorded.
South Africa With surplus Non GMO maize at a premium Closet source with a surplus
Kenya The authorizing government ministries such as the Ministry of Agriculture appear to have accepted that GMOs can be imported into the country. KEPHIS admitted that 5/11 consignments in the lat 2 years had GMO content World surplus will be GMO Non GMO countries can only meet their own demand eg. TZ banned exports of maize to Kenya in 2009
Soya bean imported as grain corn soya blend meal and other finished products such as soya chunks for both human and animal feed ingredients.
Soya uses Manufacture of animal feeds. Making of soya flour and tea. Corn Soya blend is also in high demand in the country. A small amount of Soya margarine is produced.
Soya production Production of soya beans in Kenya has remained quite low. Estimates 5,000 tonnes. The demand for soya bean has been rising in the last ten years. The trend is however not consistent. 45,000 tonnes in 2007 and a drop to 8000 tonnes in 2008. Several efforts have also been on going to promote the growing of soya bean in the western side of the country.
Demand In Kenya (and in Tanzania), a paradox that the emerging small scale scale food and feed processing sector and other potential domestic buyers of soybean constantly tl face shortages of soybean grains Yet Farmers complain of lack of market and low prices for their soybean. A small proportion of imported soya is also exported to Ethiopia.
Corn soya blend The demand for soya for Corn Soya blend is quite high in Kenya. World Food Program in large quantities for use in refugee camps and for feeding children. The data shown below does not include Corn Soya blend, a significant import into Kenya and for transit purposes. An alternative to maize grain imports by the World Food Programme for the last few years due to duty on maize grain at 25%. Also for transit to Sudan, Somalia and Rwanda
Soya imports(1999 2009) T o n n e s 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ANNUAL TOTALS GMOS( USA, ARGENTINA AND SOUTH AFRICA) ANNUAL TOTALS NON GMOS ( 18 COUNTRIES)
Significant ifi sources of soya COUNTRY TOTAL IMPORTS tonnes UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 1 ARGENTINA 7,410 DEMOCRATIC REP OF CONGO 20 EPZ 31 ETHIOPIA 440 UNITED KINGDOM 7 ITALY 1,384 MALAWI 1,251 TANZANIA 2,588 UGANDA** 55,634 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 10,242 ANDORA 20 IN:INDIA 117 CHINA 2 WESTERN SAHARA 175 KOREA 0 SOUTH AFRICA 2,313 TOTALS 81,636
Cotton seed Cotton seed cake which is an important animal feed raw material in Kenya. The seed comes from Uganda and Tanzania with the latter a more significant source. From Uganda, much of the commodity enters the country via Busia and Malaba Consignments from Tanzania are imported through Isebania, transited to Tanzania through Namanga for extraction and then re exported into Kenya.
Cotton seed imports and production 18,000.0 T o n n e s 16,000.0 14,000.0 12,000.0 10,000.0 8,000.0 6,000.0 4,000.0 2,000.0 0.0 TANZANIA UGANDA Production 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year
Canola Canola is a group of rape seed cultivars initially grown in Canada and now subsequently in many other countries. The word canola may also refer to the oil extracted from certain cultivars of oil seed rape. Kenya Revenue Authority records, no canola. Entries are under rape seed or colza seed, low in erucic.
Uses Canola is used as a vegetable oil or an animal feed principally for cattle. Imports into the country have been for seed, expected to be planting material as the volumes have been fairly low. One consignment was imported in the last year for use in animal feeds but in general, soya beans are preferred for animal feed uses.
World canola World canola production is growing rapidly 36 million tonnes of rapeseed was produced in the 2003 4 season, and 46 million tonnes in 2004 5(FAO, 2007). Kenya likely l to follow suit due to cost implications for palm oil
Imports 35.0 30.0 Ton nnes 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.00 5.0 00 0.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ANNUAL TOTALS GMOS OS(SOUTH AFRICA) ANNUAL TOTALS NON GMO COUNTRIES( 4 COUNTRIES)
Grain bulk handlers
Kilindini Docked with maize
Inside the ship
Sampling
Sampling
WFP Logistics Office Mombasa
Conclusions Kenya s demand for maize outstrips supply in most cases Kenya is a transit point for other countries especially those needing food aid Imports of maize, soya and cotton likely to continue Kenya heading to GMO production as well and could easily be an exporter Exports likely even this year considering the prevailing low prices and high production( or is it overflow of imports in the last 1 year?) Kenyan maize storage structure is weak and lasts max 6 months for growers and too expensive for the NCPB. General estimates of demand for maize may be inaccurate Maize is not just food, but a cash crop
Conclusions Corn soya blend demand presents a huge domestic market but needs some research Farmers could be encouraged to grow soya Processing methods could be key Cotton seed demand high due to high cost of Kenyan cotton. Cheaper cotton needed dd Study needed on canola as an alternative oil considering the preference for non saturated oils (health considerations)
Thank you
Contacts Virginia Kimani Pesticides and Agricultural Resource Centre Hurlingham Plaza 1 st Floor Tl Tel +254 20 2713419 Fax + 254 20 2727732 Website: www.parcpest.com Email: parcpest09@gmail.com