C.H. Robinson Surface Transportation Research and analysis focused on the declining boxcar fleet and the effects it will have on other modes of surface transportation in the United States. July 31, 2015
Executive Summary Trends of a declining boxcar fleet have been observed, and have caused concern among shippers that rely on boxcars to transport their products. C.H. Robinson tasked Iowa State University s CyBIZ Lab to investigate these trends further, and help determine the effects boxcar retirement has on different modes of surface transportation in the United States. CyBIZ Lab created this report detailing research and predictions on how U.S. shippers may be affected by reduced boxcar availability. Our research has identified some concerning facts: Approximately 57% of current boxcar fleet will retire in next 15 years 14% of the current boxcar fleet will retire in 2029 alone - the most dramatic yearly loss New boxcar manufacturing orders account for only 0.49% of all freight car 1 orders There could be economic implications due to the declining boxcar trend. Other surface transportation trends (bulk rail, intermodal, and trucking) will possibly be affected as well. Important findings include: Industries utilizing boxcars have reduced shipments in the last decade Approximately 42% reduction in lumber/wood rail ton-mile shipments in last decade 2 Approximately 42% reduction in motor vehicles/parts rail ton-mile shipments in last decade 13.2% reduction in pulp/paper rail ton-mile shipments in last decade New rail technology and new rail safety requirements recently introduced Purpose-built freight cars (center beam, intermodal carriers) are now moving freight previously hauled in boxcars Tanker car fleet size has increased 10.25% in last decade Covered hopper car fleet size has increased 21.06% in last decade Intermodal volume increased 37.5% since the year 2000 Based on our research, we believe boxcar users have reason for concern regarding the declining boxcar trend, in addition to the upcoming rapid retirement dates for the majority of the current boxcar fleet. Taking steps to plan ahead for possible service interruptions is a good strategy. Manufacturers and shippers should be prepared to collaborate with others to improve overall network velocity and increase transportation productivity in order to decrease the possible negative effects of reduced boxcar freight capacity. While there could be noticeable implications in the near future, we do not believe this issue is a crisis yet. The declining trend in boxcars can be correlated to the economic concept of supply matching demand, as boxcars are being used less frequently to haul freight. Combining these economic effects with technological innovations that increase a boxcar s freight capacity, fewer boxcars are needed to service the same number of customers. Despite the non-urgent current state of the overall boxcar situation, manufacturers and shippers should start strategically planning the steps they will take before this boxcar issue worsens. In addition, the effects of boxcar retirement will be exaggerated in regions with older infrastructure, as the newer and larger boxcars being manufactured are unable to service places originally built to optimally accommodate smaller freight cars. 1 Throughout the report, freight car refers to any rail car that is designed to carry commodities or goods. 2 Rail ton-mile shipments are defined as the length freight travels. Source: Association of American Railroads P a g e i
Objective: Research the magnitude of rapid boxcar retirement, legislative influences, and economic influences on four surface transportation modes (bulk freight car, intermodal, truckload, and less than truckload). Offer related influences and collaborate with CHR on inclusion of related influences. Create an output that is clear, citing possible influence magnitude, including industry statistics and references. Findings: Surface transportation is constantly being affected by many factors in the industry. Boxcar numbers have declined; however, this may be due to economic responses and technological advancements rather than a shortage or crisis. Bulk rail transportation will remain one of the most economical methods to transport commodities until/unless intermodal methods are able to handle higher freight capacities at a lower cost. Railroad routing problems, delays, and train velocity improvements would fix most capacity shortages currently being recognized by concerned shippers. Due to legislative and economic influences, absorbing any shortage in boxcar capacity through other modes of surface transportation will be infeasible if more boxcars are not manufactured before the years 2023-2030. Process: The steps taken to complete the report are listed below: Initial meeting established feasibility, project outline, and research topics Focused research on boxcar transportation and factors that may be affecting a trend in declining fleet numbers (legislative and economic influences) Compared trends and factors affecting boxcars with other freight cars, intermodal transportation, truckload transportation, and LTL transportation Compiled research, created graphs, and obtained industry insight Created and finalized report detailing our findings and predicted future implications P a g e ii
Table of Contents Executive Summary i Objective. ii Findings ii Process... ii The Boxcar Market... 1 Overview. 1 Demographics. 1 Boxcar Decline Influences... 2 Legislation... 2 Technological Advancements... 3 Ownership of Boxcars.. 3 Surface Transportation Trends... 4 Bulk Rail.. 4 Current Market... 4 Trends 4 Ownership of Rail Freight 5 Intermodal 6 Current Market.. 6 Trends... 7 Trucking.. 7 Current Market.. 7 Trends... 8 Implications. 8 Conclusion. 9
Total Boxcars The Boxcar Market Overview Boxcars are relied upon heavily by companies that ship commodities such as paper (primarily brown paper), beer, plywood, and metals. Throughout the early and mid-20th century, boxcars were an iconic and popular transportation method, but have slowly lost popularity over the years. 3 Boxcar use has decreased due to a variety of factors that can be largely separated into legislative and economic influences. For example, federal legislation states that boxcar owners must retire boxcars once they reach 50 years from their manufacture date. 4 In addition, boxcars are being retired faster than they are manufactured due to backlogged orders for higher demand freight cars like tanker and hopper cars. This, in addition to other factors, creates a growing concern for shippers who use the services of boxcars to haul their products across the United States. Demographics The current boxcar fleet consists of less than 115,000 cars and has been trending downward since the 1960s. There will be 65,276 boxcars retiring over the next 15 years, which is more than half of the current fleet size. A total of 57,603 boxcars will retire between the years 2023-2030 with the most dramatic loss numbering 16,156 in the year 2029. 5 This rapid rate of boxcar retirement will affect companies and shippers who still rely on the utilization of boxcar transportation. Boxcar Decline in North America 200,000 194,268 190,339 186,041 187,545 185,261 179,777 180,000 160,000 140,000 162,745 150,479 136,533 126,717 122,292 117,515 115,838 114,889 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000-2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 The boxcar fleet has declined by 79,379 cars since 2002 (Source: Umler) 3 Railroad Boxcars." American-Rails.com. N.p., 2007. Web. 23 July 2015. 4 Restricted Equipment, Subpart C Federal Railroad Administration 215.303 (2012). 5 Railinc. Umler. N.p., 14 May 2015. Web. 25 June 2015. P a g e 1
North American Boxcar Fleet Retirement Date* 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059 2061 2063 Source: Umler * All cars assumed to have a 50-year service life Between the years 2023-2030, boxcars are expected to retire at an average rate of 7,200 cars per year (Source: Umler) Boxcar Decline Influences Legislation While boxcars have a service life of 50 years, shippers are able to request an Increased Life Status extension from the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), which allows the boxcar to be used for 15 more years. The extension increases a boxcar s service life to 65 years, however freight car experts have noted that a 15 year extension is very difficult to obtain due to legislative requirements. Currently, industry leaders in the forestry products sector are working with the Association of American Railroads (AAR) to change legislation to ultimately make this Increased Life Status extension more economical and easier to obtain. Boxcars manufactured after July 1st, 1974 are applicable for this extension, whereas boxcars manufactured prior to June 30th, 1974, had a 40 year life and possible 10 year extension. All boxcars manufactured before June 30th, 1974, with or without the 10 year extension, have already been retired. 6 Throughout our research, we assumed that all boxcars currently in service have a 50 year life. 6 Age Information and Valuation. Association of American Railroads. AAR, n.d. Web. 23 July 2015. P a g e 2
Technological Advancements Technology is constantly changing, and safety innovations in the rail industry occur regularly. New technologies and more efficient types of freight cars have been created, which has decreased demand for new boxcars. In addition, newer boxcars with higher freight capacities are slowly replacing older versions. Despite the increased capacity, the efficiency and services that boxcars once provided have become outdated. This has also happened for some of the commodities for which boxcars are utilized. Older infrastructure is not capable of handling larger freight cars, which is an issue more common in the northeast region of the United States. The height and route restrictions abundant in this area are timely to plan around, and reduce the overall flexibility of the supply chain. Technology improvements have enabled shippers to increase efficiency by reducing the amount of dwell time of a freight car. Dwell time is the length of time an asset (a freight car in this instance) spends at a location to unload and reload. Unfortunately, boxcars have one of the highest dwell times among freight cars, which makes them an unattractive asset to rail companies. Newer types of freight cars are seen as more ideal investments, and utilize better technology, efficiency, and safety features. For example, lumber was once primarily shipped by boxcars, but with new innovations in freight car technology, lumber is now shipped on center beam flat cars. This transition to flat cars increased the amount of lumber hauled per car as well as decreased loading and unloading times. 7 According to boxcar owners, automobile shipments have been steadily transferred from boxcar shipments to intermodal and trucking methods. Automakers have developed intricate logistic patterns, and new manufacturing facilities are being built closer to suppliers, making trucks a more economical transportation choice. In addition to affecting the equipment used to transport items, technological advancements have also affected the commodities that are shipped in boxcars. For instance, the amount of graphing paper (white paper products) has significantly decreased over the last 20 years due to the increased use of digital and computer-based applications. Other pulp, paper, and allied products have also reduced rail ton-mile shipments by as much as 42%. In fact, these products only account for 1.8% of total tonnage carried by freight cars today. 8 This is one example that demonstrates the theory that the boxcar fleet is simply accommodating to the decreased amount of shipments, which is a case of matching supply with demand. Ownership of Boxcars A unique trend in the boxcar market is the ownership of boxcars, and the percentage of the fleet that is privately owned versus those that are owned by the railroad. Railroads own more than 75% of all boxcars, and the average age of railroad owned boxcars is close to 30 years. Privately owned boxcars account for 22% of the market, and the average age for these boxcars is 19 years. Boxcar ownership differs from to the total U.S. fleet freight car ownership, because 71% of the U.S. freight car fleet is privately owned. 9 When looking at age variances, the railroad owns most of the boxcar fleet, but only 4% of the fleet is between the ages of 1-10. On the other hand, 41% of the privately owned boxcar fleet is between the ages of 1-10. When evaluating these statistics, it appears the railroad companies do not foresee a need to increase their ownership or increase their orders for new boxcars in the near future. Another factor that is affecting this, however, is the incentives and reduced rates railroads are providing for private freight car ownership instead of utilizing the railroad s fleet. 7 "All Door Boxcars." McCloud Rails Equipment Roster. TrainWeb, n.d. Web. 24 July 2015. 8 "Class 1 Railroad Statistics." AAR - Policy and Economics Department, 26 May 2015. Web. 10 June 2015. 9 "Rail Car and Locomotive Statistics: Fleet Stats 2015." Progressive Railroading. Progressive Railroading, July 2015. Web. 15 July 2015. P a g e 3
Ages 31-40 comprise a large portion of the boxcar fleet owned by railroad and private companies, but private company owned boxcars have a significantly larger amount of boxcars between ages 1-10 (Source: Progressive Railroading) Surface Transportation Trends Bulk Rail Current Market The U.S. rail network is considered to be the most efficient and cost effective rail network in the world. Because of the efficiency and cost effectiveness, the U.S. rail network accounts for approximately 40 percent of U.S. freight moved in ton-miles. 10 The Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) regulates the railroad industry, but rail infrastructure is primarily privately funded, unlike the trucking industry. Railroads invest largely in maintaining and improving the efficiency of the rail network. There are 7 North American Class I railroads that dominate the U.S. rail market. The Class I railroads typically work together to move freight across the entire U.S. 11 Trends The U.S. freight car fleet has changed over the past 20 years. Typically, when the U.S. economy is rising, the amount of shipments and freight cars will increase in correlation. While a few industries still rely on short-haul boxcar use, railroads have found that unit trains are the most economic and efficient way to transport commodities. Unit trains are able to load at a single point, and travel to a single destination without stopping along the route. These freight cars also have a shorter dwell time, while boxcars have a significantly higher amount of dwell time compared to other types of freight cars. When measured in time and labor, boxcars have high cost and low efficiency. Unit trains composed of tanker cars or hopper cars are more efficient, and typically yield higher profits compared to trains that have a wide variety of car type with many stops or delays along its route. 10 "Freight Rail Today." U.S. Department of Transportation. Federal Railroad Administration, n.d. Web. 15 July 2015. 11 "Class I Railroads." Freight Rail Works. AAR, n.d. Web. 21 July 2015. P a g e 4
Boxcars and hopper cars are the only types of freight car that have shown a trending decrease since 1984 (Source: Progressive Railroading) Ownership of Rail Freight Private parties now own a substantially larger amount of freight cars than the railroad, but that has not always been the case. The shift of freight car ownership occurred from 1990-2000. In 1990, 54.4% of the freight car fleet was owned by Class 1 railroads, 8.6% by other railroads, and 37.1% owned by shippers. In 1995, 47.9% of freight car fleet was owned by Class 1 railroads, 7% by other railroads, and 45.2% owned by shippers. In 2000, 40.6% of freight car fleet was owned by Class 1 railroads, 9.6% by other railroads, and 49.9% owned by private companies shippers. The ownership shift occurred because railroads want to minimize their overhead. Railroads began noticing major cost savings by reducing the number of capital assets owned. Private owners are now feeling pressure to invest in freight car manufacturing, even though it might not produce a desired return on investment. 12 The cost of purchasing a new, plain boxcar today costs approximately $135,000. 13 12 Corsi, Thomas M., Ken Casavant, and Tim A. Graciano. A Preliminary Investigation of Private Railcars in North America 51.1 (2012): 53-70. Transportation Research Forum. Transportation Research Forum, 2012. Web. 25 June 2015. 13 Tita, Bob. "Why Railroads Can't Keep Enough Boxcars in Service." The Wall Street Journal. The Wall Street Journal, 21 June 2015. Web. 23 June 2015. P a g e 5
Opposite of the boxcar fleet, private companies own more total U.S. freight cars than the railroad (Source: Progressive Railroading) Intermodal Current Market Intermodal is the fastest growing mode of surface transportation because it combines different modes to deliver products in an efficient and cost effective manner. In fact, intermodal has been the fastest growing segment of the freight rail industry since 1980. 14 Roughly 25 million containers and trailers are moved by intermodal transportation. Common commodities shipped by intermodal include electronics, mail, food, paper products, clothes appliances, textiles and auto parts. Due to the increase of globalization and global trade in the past couple decades, intermodal shipping has grown and improved. Total intermodal loadings have increased steadily since 2010, and there are no signs of intermodal shipments declining. 15 14 "Freight Rail Today." U.S. Department of Transportation. Federal Railroad Administration, n.d. Web. 15 July 2015. 15 "Data & Statistics" IANA The Intermodal Association of North America. IANA, n.d. Web. 8 July 2015 P a g e 6
Intermodal loadings have continuously increased since the recession in 2009 (Source: IANA) Trends The intermodal market is greatly influenced by legislative matters because rule changes in both the trucking and rail industry have an impact on intermodal. As technology and the capabilities of third party logistics (3PL) providers improve, so does the attractiveness of intermodal services. Intermodal shipping has been on a steady increase the past 5 years, and quarterly transportation reports have shown even more recent growth. 16 Similar commodities shipped by boxcars are shipped by intermodal, which could be another factor that has caused the amount of boxcar shipments to decline. Trucking Current Market The trucking industry moves more freight tonnage than any other mode of surface transportation in the U.S. Truck transport accounts for 70% of all freight tonnage, and needs nearly 3 million Class 8 trucks and over 3 million truck drivers to accommodate this. Currently, the trucking industry is facing a driver shortage, and changes to legislation could either hinder or increase the amount of tonnage shipped by trucks. A typical 53 foot trailer has a hauling capacity of 21 tons, which is far less than the hauling capacity of boxcars. 17 16 "Intermodal Update." Transportation Intelligence. FTR, June 2015. Web. 27 July 2015. 17 American Trucking Associations. ATA, 2013. Web. 30 May 2015. P a g e 7
Trends Economist predictions estimate that total U.S freight tonnage will grow 23.5% by 2025. 18 Absorbing a 23.5% increase of freight tonnage in the next ten years will put stress on all modes of surface transportation, but trucking will have the greatest sensitivity to network capacity changes. There is currently a driver shortage of between 25,000-30,000 drivers due to demographics, regulatory issues, and other issues. Truck, container, and trailer manufacturing can accommodate a spike in demand, but ultimately the trucking industry relies on the truck drivers to transport shipments. 19 The trucking industry may not be capable of absorbing capacity from economic growth or boxcar retirement because of the driver shortage and other legislative factors, such as hours of service rules. There is currently one piece of legislation that researchers say will take trucks off the road and improve safety. If passed, the Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act (T-HUD bill) will take effect in fiscal year 2016. 20 The American Trucking Association claims the use of double 33-foot trailers would improve capacity. 21 If the bill were to be passed, it would allow for double 33-foot pup trailers; an increase from the current double 28-foot pup trailers. The most important overall idea is that the trucking industry is highly affected by legislative and economic factors, and is currently the most sensitive to small capacity shifts. Implications While noticeable service interruptions due to the decline of boxcars may be almost a decade away, it is important for manufacturers and shippers to start planning ahead. At the current retirement rate versus the replacement rate (692 boxcars manufactured per year), the total boxcar fleet will number 70,373 by the year 2030. 22 Using a freight capacity of 100 tons, boxcars will only have 7,037,300 tons of capacity compared to the 11,488,900 tons of capacity that can currently be utilized. This means there would be a 4,451,600 ton capacity shortage that may need to be absorbed by other surface transportation modes. While this sounds like a large figure, it is roughly.05% of the total tonnage that trucks move per year. 23 With recent driver shortages and new trucking regulations, it may be difficult for the trucking industry to absorb the relatively small capacity shortage percentage. If the capacity is absorbed by truck, it would cost more money per ton-mile than rail. Consumers could see an increased product cost as transportation would cost more for shippers. If trucking does not absorb the capacity, it would create a market where manufacturers are bidding against each other for transportation of their products. This could also result in a rise of transportation costs, which would be ultimately transferred to the consumer. 18 Robinson, Adam. "Freight Outlook." Cerasis, 10 Sept. 2014. Web. 24 July 2015. 19 American Trucking Associations. ATA, 2013. Web. 30 May 2015. 20 Coalition for Efficient and Responsible Trucking. CERT, n.d. Web. 30 May 2015. 21 Schulz, John D. LTL carriers welcome pending 33-foot trailers amid toughening safety standards. 19 June 2015. 22 Tita, Bob. "Why Railroads Can't Keep Enough Boxcars in Service." The Wall Street Journal. The Wall Street Journal, 21 June 2015. Web. 23 June 2015. 23 American Trucking Associations. ATA, 2013. Web. 30 May 2015. P a g e 8
Conclusion Manufacturers and shippers should consider planning ahead as part of their middle term strategy. While there may be some concern and eagerness to act now, it is important to keep in mind that freight car manufacturers have about a decade to clear backlogged orders and keep total freight capacity needs in accordance with the market. With recent news of the 2Q15 non-tank freight car orders being above expectations and orders for tank cars decelerating, it is possible that the manufacturing of boxcars could accelerate. 24 In some instances, the declining trend in boxcars is correlated to the basic economic concept of supply matching demand, as boxcars are being used less frequently to haul freight. Combining these economic effects with technological innovations that increase boxcar freight capacity means fewer boxcars are needed to service the same levels of capacity needs. Despite the non-urgent current state of the boxcar situation, manufacturers and shippers should start strategically planning the steps they will take in the event that this boxcar issue worsens. It is also important to note that infrastructure plays a role, where places with height, weight, or size restrictions may face capacity shortage implications at an expedited rate. Newer and larger boxcars are not as compatible with older infrastructure that was designed to accommodate smaller freight cars. The compatibility issues reduce overall supply chain flexibility, and will force shippers to find alternative transportation methods. Collaboration between industry leaders, transportation experts, and regulatory bodies will help ensure the delicate balance of transportation flow throughout the United States continues uninterrupted despite the constantly changing nature of surface transportation. 24 Stifel Transportation & Logistics Research Group. "2Q15 Railcar Orders Above Our Expectations On Demand For Non-Tank Freight Cars." Transportation Equipment. Stifel, 21 July 2015. Web. 24 July 2015. P a g e 9
Works Cited "All Door Boxcars." McCloud Rails Equipment Roster. TrainWeb, n.d. Web. 24 July 2015. Age Information and Valuation. Association of American Railroads. AAR, n.d. Web. 23 July 2015. American Trucking Associations. ATA, 2013. Web. 30 May 2015. Association of American Railroads. AAR, n.d. Web. 23 July 2015. "Class 1 Railroad Statistics." AAR - Policy and Economics Department, 26 May 2015. Web. 10 June 2015. "Class I Railroads." Freight Rail Works. AAR, n.d. Web. 21 July 2015. Coalition for Efficient and Responsible Trucking. CERT, n.d. Web. 30 May 2015. Corsi, Thomas M., Ken Casavant, and Tim A. Graciano. A Preliminary Investigation of Private Railcars in North America 51.1 (2012): 53-70. Transportation Research Forum. Transportation Research Forum, 2012. Web. 25 June 2015. "Data & Statistics" IANA The Intermodal Association of North America. IANA, n.d. Web. 8 July 2015. "Freight Rail Today." U.S. Department of Transportation. Federal Railroad Administration, n.d. Web. 15 July 2015. "Intermodal Fact Sheet." IANA The Intermodal Association of North America. IANA, n.d. Web. 8 July 2015. "Intermodal Update." Transportation Intelligence. FTR, June 2015. Web. 27 July 2015. "Rail Car and Locomotive Statistics: Fleet Stats 2015." Progressive Railroading. Progressive Railroading, July 2015. Web. 15 July 2015. Railinc. "Data Specification Manual." Umler. N.p., 14 May 2015. Web. 25 June 2015. Railroad Boxcars." American-Rails.com. N.p., 2007. Web. 23 July 2015. P a g e 10
Restricted Equipment, Subpart C Federal Railroad Administration 215.303 (2012). Robinson, Adam. "Freight Outlook." Cerasis, 10 Sept. 2014. Web. 24 July 2015. Schulz, John D. LTL carriers welcome pending 33-foot trailers amid toughening safety standards. 19 June 2015. Stifel Transportation & Logistics Research Group. "2Q15 Railcar Orders Above Our Expectations On Demand For Non-Tank Freight Cars." Transportation Equipment. Stifel, 21 July 2015. Web. 24 July 2015. Tita, Bob. "Why Railroads Can't Keep Enough Boxcars in Service." The Wall Street Journal. The Wall Street Journal, 21 June 2015. Web. 23 June 2015. P a g e 11