Missouri River Basin Water Management Spring 2015 Public Meetings April 7 th April 7 th April 8 th April 9 th April 9 th 11:00 a.m. 6:00 p.m. 11:00 a.m. 11:00 a.m. 6:00 p.m. Pierre, SD Bismarck, ND Fort Peck, MT Smithville, MO Council Bluffs, IA US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG
Missouri River Mainstem Reservoir System Fort Peck Montana Garrison South Dakota Oahe Big Bend North Dakota Wyoming Fort Randall Gavins Point Nebraska Iowa Colorado Kansas Missouri 2
Our Mission Regulate Missouri River Mainstem Reservoirs to Support Congressionally Authorized Purposes Water Supply Water Quality Flood Control Hydropower Control Recreation Navigation Fish and Wildlife Including Threatened and Endangered Species Irrigation 3
23.5 MAF 23.0 MAF 18.5 MAF 4
Missouri River Mainstem System Storage Zones and Allocations Exclusive Flood Control 7% Historic max - 2011 Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 16% April 1, 2015 We are here 72.8 57.6 Storage In MAF 72.4 67.77 56.1 Carryover Multiple l Use 53% Historic min - 2007 33.9 April 1, 2015 57.6 MAF April 1, 2014 53.2 MAF Permanent Pool 24% 17.6 0 5
Current Reservoir Levels Apr 1, 2015 Fort tpeck Garrison Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 2252.3 2250 Exclusive Flood Control 2246 Annual Flood Control & 2235.7 1839.4 Multiple Use 2234 2220.1 2220.1 1854.8 1854 1850 1837.5 Carryover Multiple Use 2196.2 Carryover Multiple Use 1805.8 Permanent Pool 2160 Permanent 1775 Pool 2030 1673 1.7 feet into Annual Flood Control Zone. 1.9 feet into Annual Flood Control Zone. Oahe Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 2220.1 System Storage 1619.7 1620 72.8 Exclusive Flood Control 1617 Annual Flood Control & 1608.1 57.6 Multiple Use 1607.5 2220.1 72.4 67.7 56.1 Carryover Multiple Use 1570.2 Carryover Multiple Use 33.9 Permanent Pool 1540 Permanent 17.6 Pool 1415 0 0.6 feet into Annual Flood Control Zone. 1.5 MAF into Annual Flood Control Zone. 6
Runoff Components Plains Snowpack Mountain Snowpack Rainfall March and April May, June and July Throughout Year *April 1 Forecast 80% of average 2015 Forecast* = 20.3 MAF 7
Plains Snowpack Peak Date: Feb 4, 2015 Source: NOAA National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) 8
Mountain Snowpack 9
Observed Precipitation last 90 days last 30 days Source: High Plains Regional Climate Center 10
Precipitation Outlooks April Apr May - Jun Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center 11
Drought Current Conditions and Outlook Source: National Drought Mitigation Center Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center 12
Annual Runoff above Sioux City, IA 70 Million Acre-Feet Historic Drought Periods 60 50 40 30 20 10 Median 2015 Forecast 0 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 13
Missouri River Runoff above Sioux City, IA 6 Million Acre-Feet 2015 Actual and Forecasted 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Actual Normal Forecast 14
Expected Results for Authorized Purposes in 2015 15
75 ousa ds 70 65 Million Acre-Feet System Storage April 1 Forecast Top of Exclusive Flood Control 72.4 MAF Base of Exclusive Flood Control 67.7 MAF 60 55 Base of Annual Flood Control 56.1 MAF 50 45 40 16 System Storage Check J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F 2014 2015 2016
Elevation in feet msl Fort Peck April 1 Forecast 2250 Top of Exclusive Flood Control 2250 feet msl Base of Exclusive Flood Control 2246 feet msl 2240 Base of Annual Flood Control 2234 feet msl 2230 2220 2210 17 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F 2014 2015 2016
1855 Elevation in feet msl Garrison April 1 Forecast Top of Exclusive Flood Control 1854 feet msl 1850 Base of Exclusive Flood Control 1850 feet msl 1845 1840 Base of Annual Flood Control 1837.5 feet msl 1835 1830 1825 1820 18 1815 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F 2014 2015 2016
1620 1615 Elevation in feet msl Oahe April 1 Forecast Top of Exclusive Flood Control 1620 feet msl Base of Exclusive Flood Control 1617 feet msl 1610 Base of fannual Flood Control 1607.5 feet msl 1605 1600 1595 1590 19 1585 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F 2014 2015 2016
Flood Control All 2014 flood water evacuated from reservoir system by early January Storage space available to capture runoff and reduce releases for downstream events Flooding can still occur due to rainfall Ability to reduce downstream stages diminishes as you move further from the control point due to increased travel times 20
Hydropower 16 Billion kwh 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14 Gavins Point Fort Randall Big Bend Oahe Garrison Fort Peck Forecast 21
Navigation March 15 storage check Full service flow support Target locations: Sioux City, Omaha, Nebraska City and Kansas City July 1 storage check Full service flow support except tfor Lower Basic Full length navigation Conservation measures may be implemented if conditions worsen 22
Water Supply Water Quality Irrigation Recreation Normal to slightly below normal elevations and releases Lower pools not expected to affect recreation this year No impacts expected to irrigation Water supply Gavins Point winter releases of 12,000 cfs under b i dl b i basic and lower basic Reservoir levels above historic lows Releases adequate between reservoirs 23
Fish and Wildlife Steady to rising levels at upper three reservoirs during forage fish spawn Favor Fort Peck and Oahe if runoff not sufficient i May be difficult to accomplish this year without significant rainfall in the basin Minimize hours of zero releases at Fort Randall to the extent possible 24
Endangered Species Act of 1973 Each Federal Agency shall... ensure that any action authorized, funded, or carried out by such agency is not likely to jeopardize the continued existence of any endangered or threatened species or result in the destruction or adverse modification of habitat Interior Least Tern Listed Endangered 1986 Piping Plover Listed Threatened 1986 Pallid Sturgeon Listed Endangered 1990 25
Threatened and Endangered Species Piping Plover and Least Tern Gavins Point releases Steady release flow to target Daily release cycle Intra-day peaking patterns Garrison & Fort Randall Fort Randall Measures to minimize take 26
Threatened and Endangered Species Bi-Modal lspring Pulse Pallid Sturgeon 2003 Amended d Biological i l Opinion i Reasonable and Prudent Alternative March and May spring pulses not implemented in 2015 Independent science advisory panel (ISAP) determined implemented pulses not accomplishing intended outcomes Forego 2015 spring pulse while pursuing ISAP recommendations 27
Summary Below average runoff forecast Reservoir levels expected to decline; begin next year well below base of flood control zone (basic runoff) Good service to all authorized purposes in 2015; impacts likely beginning next winter unless basin conditions improve 28
Thank You! Missouri.Water.Management@usace.army.mil Website: www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/ Or Google Corps Missouri River 29