Decarbonizing transport - a world view- Presentation for Outreach workshop Oslo March 8 2017 Stef Proost KULeuven (B)
challenges Transport is strongest growing source of GHG emissions There is no easy substitute for oil, the dominant source of energy in transport Transport costs have decreased by a factor 10 over last 100 years and is a key input in a world driven by specialisation and trade
WORLD: 50% of oil use in transport sector and 80% of oil use in transport is used on road Road Source: BP outlook 2017
Why is it hard to reduce carbon emissions in transport? OECD countries Emissions = activity x fossil fuel intensity OECD (share in world decreases to 40%) Growth in volume is small (but flexible transport like small vans is on the rise) Road Transport fuels (except for US) have already a carbon tax of 150 to 300 Euro/ton of CO2 (but it is called gasoline or diesel excise ) Maritime and aviation fuels are difficult to tax because of tankering (tax = O Euro/ton of CO2)
Why is it hard to reduce carbon emissions in transport? outside-oecd strong economic growth leads to strong increase in car ownership and sectoral composition (away from steel, coal etc) relying more on road freight Road Transport fuels In some countries: also high carbon tax of 150 to 300 Euro/ton (called gasoline or diesel excise) In other coutries: subsidized (even sold below world prices) Maritime and aviation fuels are difficult to tax because of tankering Non-OECD may not be very active in terms of climate policy so the green paradox comes into play and compensate part of the oil consumption reductions from the OECD
Car fleet more than doubles
Gasoline prices vary between 0 and 2 Euro/ liter
Recipes for cars 1 (40% of carbon emissions) Reduce mileage current thinking Densification (urban planners recipe) Difficult, long term and not so effective as commuting is less than 50% of the trips Very good reasons to decrease volume of cars and trucks in the peak period in urban areas to keep the urban economy functioning Requires road pricing Gasoline taxes are not the right instrument (not place and time dependent) Low public transport pricing are also very second best as» it is mainly peak PT production that is very expensive to supply» To be effective, new passengers should come mainly from road, often many new passengers but not so much previous car users Electric bicyles increase market share of biking
Recipes for cars 2 (40% of carbon emissions) Reduce mileage information age? Automated vehicles & pooled vehicles (2025-2040) means cheaper and more easy access to car use More efficient use of equipment (may save on car ownership, saves on parking - increases capacity on roads) But cheaper use of cars (sharing costs+ less congestion) makes people use it more ( rebound effect ) in developing countries Will be competitor for public transport that will see its ridership decrease, so frequency decreases and so the waiting time increases (vicious circle) SO as long as cars are not electric, the information revolution will not help to decrease carbon emissions
Recipes for cars 3 (40% of carbon emissions) Reduce carbon emissions per vehicle mile Conventional vehicles: fuel efficiency improvements have been major factor in keeping carbon emissions under control via high gasoline prices and fuel efficiency standards increases Technology that is not very expensive and percolates to developing countries Electric vehicles: Still a more expensive route to decarbonization (as it recieves many subsidies) but allows full decarbonization if there is enough renewable electricity at the right moment Not sure how it is transfered to developing countries Hybrid plug in vehicles Safety valve for longer trips and is therefore expected to be the dominant new car type ( Risk of lazy refuelling with conventional fuel (cfr. biofuel in Sweden)
Market share of car types in EU Source: EU reference scenario 2016
Role of activity, fuel efficiency and electrification for cars
Trucks? Modal switch? But trucks are much more flexible than rail Excise taxes on fuel but may be replaced by distance charging Technology solutions? Electricity for small vans Bigger trucks remains difficult
Aviation Global market of airplanes (Boeing, Airbus) fuel effiency improved after oil price hikes Carbon is untaxed because of international convention and tankering Voluntary scheme (CORSIA) is being developped for air transport that relies on buying emission permits from other sectors Main alternative is biofuels (kerosine price x 3?) But biofuels are more easily introduced in the road sector (excise taxes on oil (acts as subsidy + biofuels are easier to make) Opposition to certain types of land use Can HSR take market share of aviation? Yes but only on shorter routes (<500 km) Investement only makes sense if high density (10 million pass/year)
Conclude 1? Decarbonizing road emissions is difficult (expensive) Short term efficient steps Road Fuel prices in the world are very different so there is a very strong difference in implicit carbon taxes If these can not be harmonized, fuel standards are a good second best instrument Air transport and maritime have virtually zero carbon taxes so this looks like the priority
Conclude 2? Long term steps: Reducing activity and modal shift will be insufficient, so it has to come from better technology Electric vehicles in long term if green electricity Simple technology (not expensive) will have a larger market share in rest of the world than fancy technology Biofuels for aviation