World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006 2010 Steel Scrap a Raw Material for Steelmaking
Contents Foreword 2 Executive Summary 4 Graphs & Tables 8 World Crude Steel Production 8 World EAF Production 8 Total Metallics for Steelmaking in the World 9 Steel Scrap for Steelmaking in the World 9 Steel Scrap for Steelmaking in Major Countries 11 Scrap Use in Iron and Steel Foundries in the World 14 Main Steel Scrap Importers 14 Main Steel Scrap Exporters (Net Exporters) 15 Main Steel Scrap Export Flows 16 Price Curve 20 Glossary 21 World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006 2010 1
Foreword The second edition of our BIR Ferrous Report World Steel Recycling in Figures shows that, in the aftermath of recession, 2010 proved to be an excellent year for the ferrous recycling industry. In our second edition, we have published more scrap usage information. In addition to the EU, the USA and Turkey, we have compiled scrap consumption figures for steelmaking in China, Japan and Russia. We are still dependent on estimates for many areas of the world. So we have updated our calculation model for the entire use of steel scrap in steelmaking and, for the first time, we are able to present a calculation model for global scrap use in iron and steel foundries. According to our calculations, global scrap use in steelmaking has been between 460m and 540m tonnes per annum in recent years while its annual use in iron and steel foundries has amounted to between 56m and 76m tonnes. We have also provided more information about the world trade in steel scrap and have completed our second edition with an overview of 2010 steel scrap export prices for the USA and the EU. It is also worthy of note that some credible forecasts suggest annual world steel production will reach 2bn tonnes in not so many years from now. And even if BOF production accounts for most of the increase, 2 World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006 2010
there are enough EAF expansion plans worldwide for us to ask the question: Will there be sufficient scrap to cover ever-increasing steel production? For the answer to this question, we must continue to improve the steel scrap statistics at our disposal such that we are able to make a more accurate appraisal of the market. I would like to extend special thanks to Rolf Willeke, the BIR Ferrous Division s Statistics Advisor, who compiled, prepared and evaluated all the figures in our report. Beginning this year, he will update these world statistics every three months. We hope that our report World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006-2010 will be useful in your daily business operations. Brussels, May 2011 Christian Rubach President of the BIR Ferrous Division World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006 2010 3
Executive Summary Figures for 2010 show that the ferrous metal market was very positively affected by the new record for global crude steel production. In the aftermath of the recession, world crude steel production reached 1.412bn tonnes in 2010. This represented an increase of 14.8% over 2009 and a new record for global steel production. All the major steel-producing countries and regions showed double-digit growth in 2010, while the EU and North America had higher growth rates due to the lower base effect from 2009. Looking at the main scrap-using countries (which are named in this report), statistics from worldsteel confirm that China s crude steel production reached 626.7m tonnes last year for an increase of 9.3% over 2009; the country s share of world crude steel production declined from 46.7% in 2009 to 44.3% in 2010. Japan produced 109.6m tonnes of crude steel last year, or 25.2% more than in 2009, while the EU recorded an increase of 23.9% to 172.6m tonnes and the USA a leap of 38.3% to 80.5m tonnes. Also in 2010, Russia achieved crude steel production of 66.9m tonnes and Turkey of 29.1m tonnes for year-on-year increases of, respectively, 11.5% and 15.2%. In collaboration with experts from the German Steel Federation (WV Stahl), we calculate a global scrap consumption for world steel production of around 530m tonnes for last year an increase of 15.2% compared to 2009. But our figures reveal that steel scrap usage in some parts of the world including the EU (+18.4% to 95.8m tonnes), the USA (-3.8% to 51m tonnes) and China (+4.3 % to 86.7m tonnes) failed to keep pace with the respective growth in steel production. The main reason for this development in the EU and the USA is that electric arc furnaces (EAFs) producing construction steels consume 100% steel scrap but were operating at lower rates. Furthermore, for the US market, EAFs producing hot rolled coil were operating near 90% capacity, but by using around 40% iron alternatives. China is attracting particular attention regarding its scrap usage. And for the first time, we have received from China s Association of Metalscrap Utilization (CAMU) the scrap consumption figures relating to the country s crude steel production over the last five years. We have learned that, between January and September last year, Chinese steel mills consumed on average 140 kg of scrap in making a tonne of steel compared to 146 kg for the whole of 2009. As the world s biggest steel producer, developments in China have contributed substantially to a reduction in the world 4 World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006 2010
rate of steel scrap use to crude steel production from 43.9% in 2000 to 37.5% in 2010. But China s steel industry as a whole should be attempting to increase scrap consumption per tonne of steel produced to 227 kg during the country s Five-Year Plan running from 2011 to 2015. Also worthy of note for 2010 was the increase in steel scrap use for steelmaking in Japan (+28.9% to 38.4m tonnes), Russia (+50.4% to 20.6m tonnes) and Turkey (+17.7% to 25.3m tonnes). Scrap contributed 86.4% of the material used in Turkish steel production last year compared to a world average for 2010 of 37.5%. According to our calculations, steelworks own arisings, or circulating scrap, made a smaller gain than production in rising 11.8% to 190m tonnes last year as a result of mills efforts to improve yields through the wider use of continuous casting and of near-net-shape casting. At the same time, the increase in global pig iron production was lower than the jump in crude steel production. Our calculation model reveals that scrap purchases by steelworks worldwide increased by 17.2% to 340m tonnes last year, of which 32.4% was attributable to the supply of new steel scrap (process scrap) and 67.8% to old steel scrap (capital scrap). These figures highlight that quality-assured processing of scrap is becoming more and more important. For the first time, we are able to present a calculation model for global scrap use in iron and steel foundries. We have produced this in collaboration with experts from the German Foundry Association (BDG), which is also responsible for the Secretariat General of the European Foundry Association (CAEF). Our calculations cover the period from 2006 to 2009; it was not possible to incorporate 2010 figures because world casting production is determined only by US magazine Modern Casting with a time lag of one year. It should also be pointed out that our calculation model takes into account the high pig iron usage for casting production in the iron and steel foundries of China and India. For the years 2006 to 2009, we have calculated a global scrap use of between 56m and 76m tonnes for iron, steel and malleable casting production of between 67m and 79m tonnes per annum. During this time, foundries annual scrap purchases amounted to between 35m and 47m tonnes. World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006 2010 5
Also worthy of note are remarkable changes in world trade of steel scrap when comparing 2010 and 2009, with developments influenced mainly by a sharp drop in Chinese scrap imports and a strong increase in deliveries to Turkey. Chinese imports fell by 57.3% or 7.8m tonnes to just 5.9m tonnes in 2010, with the result that China lost its position as the world s second largest importer of steel scrap. India s scrap imports also fell in 2010: statistics for the January-September period show that its overseas purchases of steel scrap declined 24.6% to 3.2m tonnes. Thailand s steel scrap imports also dropped, by 3.1% to 1.3m tonnes. On the plus side, Turkey s steel scrap imports amounted to 19.2m tonnes last year (+22.5%) and enabled the country to maintain its position as the world s leading importer. Also positively, South Korea s scrap imports jumped 3.7% in 2010 to 8.1m tonnes while the total received by Taiwan soared 37.1% to 5.4m tonnes. South Korea has now assumed the position of the world s second biggest steel scrap importer. Our statistical report also shows positive scrap import moves in Malaysia (+36.2% to 2.3m tonnes) and Indonesia (+10.6% to 1.6m tonnes). The impact of last year s decline in China s steel scrap imports will have been felt most keenly in the USA and in Japan. Looking at the main steel scrap exporters in 2010, Japan s outgoing volumes declined by a very steep 31.1% to just under 6.5m tonnes, with its shipments to China dropping 45.5% to 2.7m tonnes. The USA s overseas shipments fell some 8.4% to 20.6m tonnes, mainly as a result of the sharp decline in deliveries to China (-48.3% to 3.2m tonnes) and to India (-38.2% to 976,000 tonnes). Conversely, America s shipments to Turkey climbed to 4.4m tonnes (+18.3%). Adding in Canada s export deliveries (+7.6% to 5.2m tonnes), North America s steel scrap shipments almost topped 26m tonnes in 2010. And despite the negative export result last year, the USA held on to its position as the world s leading exporter of steel scrap. Meanwhile, the importance of the EU as a supplier of steel scrap has grown significantly in the last five years, with exports rising almost 9m tonnes over this period. This positive development has been influenced very strongly by Turkey: the EU exported approaching 19m tonnes (+20.2%) last year, with Turkey the biggest buyer 6 World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006 2010
on 10.7m tonnes (+44.4%). It is also interesting to note last year s upturn in EU steel scrap shipments to India (+5.7% to 2.1m tonnes) and to Egypt (+191% to 1.6m tonnes). Finally, Russia followed up a sharp decline in 2009 by vastly improving its export performance in 2010, with deliveries surging 98.9% to 2.4m tonnes. Turkey was again the most significant outlet in taking 1.1m tonnes (+216.8%). It is interesting to note that all of the world s leading steel scrap exporters are major net steel scrap exporters. In 2010, the export surplus for the USA was 16.8m tonnes and for the EU 15.3m tonnes. Meanwhile, figures for 2010 show that steel scrap prices (as illustrated in the export prices of the USA and the EU) remain volatile. This emphasises that steel scrap as a raw material is an international commodity subject to world market prices. CONCLUSION According to our calculations, global scrap use in steelmaking has been between 460m and 540m tonnes per annum in recent years, while its annual use in iron and steel foundries has amounted to between 56m and 76m tonnes. Applicable also to deep-sea business, the demanding of higher-quality scrap has also been noted. Quality-assured processing of scrap is becoming more and more important. The huge world trade in steel scrap last year further underlines the need for a free raw materials market. The figures for 2010 show that steel scrap prices remain volatile. Market developments in 2010 highlight not only the importance of scrap as a global raw material for steelworks and foundries, but also the ecological benefits of steel and casting recycling. Rolf Willeke Statistics Advisor of the BIR Ferrous Division World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006 2010 7
World Crude Steel Production (million tonnes) 1500 1200 1247 1347 1327 1230 1412 (+14.8%) 900 600 419 490 500 574 627 (+9.3%) 300 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 World Steel Production Of which China Change:%2010/2009 Source: worldsteel World EAF Production (million tonnes) 500 400 395 416 409 342 405 (+18.5%) 300 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Change:%2010/2009 Sources: worldsteel/issb 8 World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006 2010
total Metallics for Steelmaking in the World (million tonnes) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 % 2010/ 2009 Crude Steel Production 1 247 1 347 1 327 1 230 1 412 +14.8 of which Oxygen (BOF) 820 901 890 863 988 +14.5 Electric (EAF) 395 416 409 342 405 +18.5 (Share EAF of Crude Steel) in % 31.7 30.9 30.8 27.8 28.7 Pig Iron 880 961 935 914 1 028 +12.5 (Ratio Pig Iron/Crude Steel) in % 70.6 71.4 70.4 74.4 72.8 Steel Scrap 500 540 530 460 530 +15.2 (Ratio Steel Scrap/Crude Steel) in % 40.1 40.1 39.9 37.6 37.5 DRI 60 67 68 64 65 +1.6 (Ratio DRI/Crude Steel) in % 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.1 4.6 Total Metallics 1 440 1 568 1 533 1 438 1 623 +12.9 (Ratio Total Metallics/Crude Steel) in % 115.5 116.5 115.4 116.9 114.9 Sources: worldsteel, Midrex and own calculations by WV Stahl/BIR Steel scrap for Steelmaking in the World (million tonnes) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 % 2010/ 2009 Crude Steel Production 1 247 1 347 1 327 1 230 1 412 +14.8 Total Steel Scrap Use 500 540 530 460 530 +15.2 (Share Scrap Use/ Crude Steel) in % 40.1 40.1 39.9 37.6 37.5 of which: Own Arisings (Circulating Scrap) 185 197 195 170 190 +11.8 (Share Own Arisings of Scrap Use) in % 37.0 36.5 36.8 37.0 35.9 Purchases by Steelworks 315 343 335 290 340 +17.2 (Share Purchases of Scrap Use) in % 63.0 63.5 63.2 63.0 64.2 of which: New Steel Scrap (Process Scrap) 109 107 105 95 110 +15.8 (Share New Steel Scrap of Total Purchases) in % 34.6 31.2 31.3 32.8 32.4 Old Steel Scrap (Capital Scrap) 206 236 230 195 230 +17.9 (Share Old Steel Scrap of Total Purchases) in % 65.4 68.8 68.7 67.2 67.8 Sources: worldsteel and own calculations by WV Stahl/BIR World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006 2010 9
Steel Scrap for steelmaking worldwide Million Tonnes % 600 Ratio Scrap Use / Crude Steel Production 45 500 40 400 Total Steel Scrap Use Own Arisings 35 300 Purchased Scrap New Scrap 30 200 Old Scrap Old Scrap 25 100 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20 Sources: WV Stahl/BIR World Crude Steel Production, Steel Scrap Use and Purchases (million tonnes) 1600 1400 1200 1247 1347 1327 1230 1412 (+14.8%) 1000 800 600 400 500 315 540 530 343 335 460 290 530 (+15.2%) 340 (+17.2%) 200 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Crude Steel Production Steel Scrap Use Steel Scrap Purchases Sources: worldsteel and WV Stahl/BIR 10 World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006 2010
steel scrap for steelmaking in china (million tonnes) 800 700 600 500 400 419.1 489.3 500.3 573.6 626.7 (+9.3%) 300 200 100 67.2 68.5 72.0 83.1 86.7 (+4.3%) 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Crude Steel Production Steel Scrap Use Change:%2010/2009 Sources: worldsteel and CAMU Steel Scrap for steelmaking in the EU (million tonnes) 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 206.9 210.2 2006 115.3 116.7 198.2 111.3 139.4 80.9 172.6 (+23.9%) 2007 2008 2009 2010 95.8 (+18.4%) Crude Steel Production Steel Scrap Use Change:%2010/2009 Sources: worldsteel and EUROFER World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006 2010 11
Steel Scrap for steelmaking in the USA (million tonnes) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 98.6 98.1 2006 64.0 64.0 91.4 66.0 80.5 (+38.3%) 58.2 53.0 51.0 (-3.8%) 2007 2008 2009 2010 Crude Steel Production Steel Scrap Use Change:%2010/2009 Source: worldsteel and ISRI/USGS Steel Scrap for steelmaking in japan (million tonnes) 140 120 116.2 120.2 118.7 109.6 (+25.2%) 100 800 87.5 60 40 42.2 44.4 44.8 29.8 38.4 (+28.9%) 20 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Crude Steel Production Steel Scrap Use Change:%2010/2009 Sources: worldsteel and Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry in Japan 12 World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006 2010
Steel Scrap for steelmaking in Russia (million tonnes) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 70.8 72.4 2006 68.5 20.2 21.4 20.1 60.0 13.7 66.9 (+11.5%) 2007 2008 2009 2010 20.6 (+50.4%) Crude Steel Production Steel Scrap Use Change:%2010/2009 Source: worldsteel and MAIR Group Steel Scrap for steelmaking in turkey (million tonnes) 30 25 20 23.3 20.2 25.8 26.8 22.6 22.9 25.3 21.5 29.1 (+15.2%) 25.3 (+17.7%) 15 10 5 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Crude Steel Production Steel Scrap Use Change:%2010/2009 Source: worldsteel and DGUD World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006 2010 13
scrap use in iron and steel foundries in the world (million tonnes) 2006 2007 2008 2009 % 2009/ 2008 Iron Steel and Malleable Casting Production 75.3 79.1 78.8 67.6-14.2 Total Scrap Use 73.7 75.8 73.6 56.9-22.7 (Share Scrap Use/ Crude Steel) in % 97.9 95.8 93.4 84.2 of which: Own Arisings (Circulating Scrap)* 28.1 28.9 28.1 21.7-22.8 (Share Own Arisings of Scrap Use) in % 38.1 38.1 38.1 38.1 Scrap Purchases by Foundries 45.6 46.8 45.5 35.2-22.6 (Share Purchases of Scrap Use) in % 61.8 61.8 61.8 61.8 Sources: Modern Casting and own calculations by BDG/BIR * Own Arisings (Circulating Scrap) is the term for lumpy metal remains evolving during the casting process. Elements belonging to this process such as sprues, runners, ingates and feeders are essential to produce a raw casting, but they do not belong to the actual casting and are therefore eliminated during the finishing process of it. Rejects and scrap developing in the foundry are added to the Circulating Scrap as well. Main Steel Scrap IMporters (million tonnes) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 % 2010/ 2009 Turkey 15.100 17.141 17.415 15.665 19.194 +22.5 South Korea 5.621 6.887 7.319 7.800 8.091 +3.7 China 5.386 3.395 3.590 13.692 5.848-57.3 India 3.359 3.014 4.579 5.336 3.211* -24.6 Taiwan 4.459 5.418 5.539 3.912 5.364 +37.1 EU 7.294 5.142 4.809 3.270 3.629 +9.7 USA 4.814 3.692 3.571 2.986 3.773 +26.4 Canada 1.476 1.435 1.674 1.408 2.227 +58.1 Malaysia 2.941 3.688 2.293 1.683 2.292 +36.2 Indonesia 1.063 1.260 1.899 1.484 1.642 +10.6 Thailand 1.373 1.805 3.142 1.323 1.282-3.1 Sources: Official Trade Statistics/WV Stahl, DCUD * Jan-Sep 2010 14 World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006 2010
Main Steel Scrap Exporters (million tonnes) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 % 2010/ 2009 USA 13.978 16.642 21.712 22.439 20.557-8.4 EU 10.083 10.566 12.799 15.779 18.970 +20.2 Japan 7.654 6.449 5.344 9.398 6.472-31.1 Canada 4.000 4.100 4.084 4.792 5.154 +7.6 Russia 9.797 7.855 5.128 1.202 2.390 +98.9 Australia 1.335 1.501 1.708 1.925 1.636-15.0 South Africa 0.555 0.752 1.271 1.144 1.225 +7.0 Sources: Official Trade Statistics/WV Stahl Main Steel Scrap Exporters Development 2006 vs. 2010 (million tonnes) 0.555 13.978 1.225 20.557 1.335 1.636 2.390 9.797 5.154 2006 2010 4.000 10.083 6.472 7.654 18.970 USA EU Japan Canada Russia Australia South Africa Sources: Official Trade Statistics/WV Stahl World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006 2010 15
major Net Steel Scrap Exporters 2010 (million tonnes) 25 20 20.56 18.97 15 10 5 0 6.47 3.77 3.63 5.15 2.23 0.49 USA EU Japan Canada Steel Scrap Export Steel Scrap Import Sources: Official Trade Statistics/WV Stahl US Steel Scrap Export 2010 (million tonnes) Biggest Buyers Total Export: 20.56 (-8.4%) Turkey: 4.35 (+18.3%) China: 3.21 (-48.3%) South Korea: 2.83 (-9.1%) Taiwan: 2.82 (+26.4%) Canada: 1.37 (+40.0%) India: 0.98 (-38.2%) Change:% 2010/2009 Source: Official Trade Statistics/WV Stahl 16 World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006 2010
EU Steel Scrap Export 2010 (million tonnes) Biggest Buyers Total Export: 18.97 (+20.2%) Turkey: 10.69 (+44.4%) India: 2.13 (+5.7%) Egypt: 1.64 (+191.0%) China: 0.595 (-63.5%) USA: 0.51 (+59.7%) Switzerland: 0.46 (+41.1%) Change:% 2010/2009 Source: Official Trade Statistics/WV Stahl Japan Steel Scrap Export 2010 (million tonnes) Biggest Buyers Total Export: 6.47 (-31.1%) South Korea: 3.34 (-11.6%) China: 2.71 (-45.5%) Taiwan: 0.30 (-12.7%) Vietnam: 0.06 (-67.7%) Change:% 2010/2009 Source: Official Trade Statistics/WV Stahl World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006 2010 17
Canada Steel Scrap Export 2010 (million tonnes) Biggest Buyers Total Export: 5.15 (+7.6%) USA: 2.70 (+12.4%) South Korea: 1.26 (+943.2%) Egypt: 0.43 (+44.1%) Taiwan: 0.19 (+197.0%) China: 0.15 (-45.7%) Vietnam: 0.13 (+307.8%) Change:% 2010/2009 Source: Official Trade Statistics/WV Stahl Russia Steel Scrap Export 2010 (million tonnes) Biggest Buyers Total Export: 2.39 (+98.9%) Turkey: 1.07 (+216.8%) South Korea: 0.41 (+68.7%) Spain: 0.37 (+57.0%) Netherlands: 0.10 (+23.8%) Change:% 2010/2009 Source: Official Trade Statistics/WV Stahl 18 World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006 2010
australia Steel Scrap Export 2010 (million tonnes) Biggest Buyers Total Export: 1.64 (-15.0%) Malaysia: 0.36 (+100.1%) Vietnam: 0.32 (+31.5%) Taiwan: 0.20 (+62.0%) Indonesia: 0.18 (-25.3%) Change:% 2010/2009 Source: Official Trade Statistics/WV Stahl south africa Steel Scrap Export 2010 (million tonnes) Biggest Buyers Total Export: 1.23 (+7.0%) India: 0.45 (+7.2%) Malaysia: 0.21 (-37.9%) Vietnam: 0.18 (+274.0%) Indonesia: 0.12 (+24.7%) Change:% 2010/2009 Source: Official Trade Statistics/WV Stahl World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006 2010 19
Price Curve january 2010/2011 USA Export Prices (US$/GRT) 500 450 470 465 400 350 300 250 200 260 255 275 270 335 330 345 340 385 380 370 380 320 325 HMS 1 Heavy Steel Scrap (1/4 Inch) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 312 308 365 355 376 369 375 370 385 380 Fob West Coast price Fob East Coast price Fob Rotterdam Export Prices (US$/t) 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 255 250 300 295 325 320 305 300 420 410 390 385 330 325 HMS 80/20 Heavy Steel Scrap Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 325 318 373 368 360 355 365 360 375 370 470 465 Highest price Lowest price Source: Recycling International 20 World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006 2010
glossary BIR BDG CAMU DCUD Eurofer ISRI ISSB MIDREX Modern Casting Official Trade Statistics Recycling International USGS worldsteel WV Stahl Bureau of International Recycling, Brussels, Belgium German Foundry Association, Düsseldorf, Germany China s Association of Metalscrap Utilization, Beijing, China Turkish Iron and Steel Producers Association, Ankara, Turkey European Confederation of Iron and Steel Industries, Brussels, Belgium Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, Washington, USA Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau, London, United Kingdom Midrex Technologies Inc., Charlotte, USA Magazine for Foundries and Diecasters, Schaumburg, Illinois, USA Prepared by WV Stahl, Düsseldorf, Germany International trade magazine, Arnhem, The Netherlands U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, USA World Steel Association, Brussels, Belgium German Steel Federation, Düsseldorf, Germany
Bureau of International Recycling aisbl Avenue Franklin Roosevelt 24 1050 Brussels Belgium T. +32 2 627 57 70 F. +32 2 627 57 73 bir@bir.org www.bir.org