Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report 681 May 2011 Results of the North Dakota Land Valuation Model for the 2011 Agricultural Real Estate Assessment Dwight Aakre Ronald Haugen Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics Agricultural Experiment Station North Dakota State University Fargo, North Dakota 58108
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors extend their appreciation to Andrew Swenson and David Saxowsky for their constructive comments and suggestions. Special thanks go to Paulann Haakenson and Edie Watts who helped to prepare the manuscript. This publication is available electronically at this web site: http://agecon.lib.umn.edu/. Please address your inquiries regarding this publication to: Department of Agribusiness & Applied Economics, P.O. Box 6050, Fargo, ND 58108-6050, Phone 701-231-7441, Fax: 701-231-7400, Email: ndsu.agribusines @ndsu.edu. NDSU is an equal opportunity institution. Copyright 2011 by Aakre. All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies.
TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables... ii List of Figures... ii Abstract... iii North Dakota Land Valuation Model... 1 Capitalization Rate... 1 Cost of Production Index... 2 Results: All Agricultural Land Value... 2 Five-year Trend: All Agricultural Land Value... 4 Results: Cropland Value... 5 Five-year Trend: Cropland Value... 6 Results: Non-Cropland Value... 7 Five-year Trend: Non-Cropland Value... 7 Capitalized Average Annual Values per Acre by County... 7 Market Value of North Dakota Farm Land... 10 Five-year Trend: Market Value of Cropland... 11 Market Value of Pasture... 13 Five-year Trend: Market Value of Pasture... 14 Conclusions... 15 References... 16 Page i
LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1 North Dakota Capitalized Average Annual Values Per Acre by County for 2010...8 2 North Dakota Capitalized Average Annual Values Per Acre by County for 2011...9 LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1 Percent Change in Average Value of All Agricultural Land, 2010-2011...3 2 Percent Change in Average Value of All Agricultural Land, 2006-2011...4 3 Percent Change in Average Value of Cropland, 2010-2011...5 4 Percent Change in Average Value of Cropland, 2006-2011...6 5 Percent Change in Estimated Market Value of Cropland, 2010-2011...11 6 Percentage Change in Estimated Market Value of Cropland, 2006-2011...12 7 Percent Change in Estimated Market Value of Pasture, 2010-2011...13 8 Percentage Change in Estimated Market Value of Pasture, 2006-2011...14 ii
ABSTRACT This report summarizes the 2011 results of the North Dakota Land Valuation Model. The model is used annually to estimate average land values by county, based on the value of production from cropland and non-cropland. The county land values developed from this procedure form the basis for the 2011 valuation of agricultural land for real estate tax assessment. The average value for all agricultural land in a county from this analysis is multiplied by the total acres of agricultural land on the county abstract to determine each county s total agricultural land value for taxation purposes. The State Board of Equalization compares this value with the total value assessed to agricultural property in each county. Each county is required by state statute to assess a total value of agricultural property within 5 percent of this value. The average value per acre of all agricultural land in North Dakota increased by 5.4 percent from 2010 to 2011 based on the value of production. The value of cropland increased by 6.0 percent, and non-cropland value decreased by 0.40 percent. The formula capitalization rate was below the minimum set by the State Legislature, therefore the minimum rate of 7.4 percent was used. The increase in the values for cropland and all agricultural land was due to the increased value of crop production. The value of production for most counties has been considerably higher since 2007 than prior years. This increase in value of production is a combination of increased yields, higher prices and a change in cropping mix. The change in crop revenue impacted land values from a negative 0.52 percent in Pembina County to an increase of 13.12 percent in Hettinger County. The capitalization rate change increased land valuations by 4.05 percent in all counties; while the cost of production index decreased land values in all counties by 5.72 percent. Changes in market value are included for comparison. Market value data are from the annual County Rents and Values survey conducted by North Dakota Agricultural Statistics Service. Key Words: Land valuation, real estate assessment, agricultural land iii
RESULTS OF THE NORTH DAKOTA LAND VALUATION MODEL FOR THE 2011 AGRICULTURAL REAL ESTATE ASSESSMENT Dwight G. Aakre and Ronald Haugen 1 NORTH DAKOTA LAND VALUATION MODEL State statute mandates that the Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics at North Dakota State University annually compute an estimate of 1) the average value per acre of agricultural lands on a statewide and countywide basis, and 2) the average value per acre for cropland and non-cropland (N.D.C.C. 57-02-27.2). These estimates are provided to the State Tax Department. The model determines agricultural land values as the landowner share of gross returns divided by the capitalization rate. Landowner share of gross returns is the portion of revenue generated from agricultural land that is assumed to be received by the landowner, and is expected to reflect current rental rates. The Legislature has specified that the landowner share of gross returns is 30 percent of gross returns for all crops except sugar beets and potatoes (20 percent), non-cropland (25 percent), and irrigated land (50 percent of the dry land rate). Capitalization Rate The capitalization rate is an interest rate that reflects the general market rate of interest adjusted for the risk associated with a particular investment or asset (in this case, agricultural land in North Dakota). The Legislature specified the gross Federal Land Bank (Agri-Bank, FCB) mortgage interest rate for North Dakota be used as the basis for computing the capitalization rate. The capitalization rate used in the North Dakota Land Valuation model is a twelve-year rolling average with the high and low rates dropped. The 2003 Legislature amended the capitalization rate formula by introducing a minimum level of 9.5 percent with no upper limit. The 2005 Legislature amended the capitalization rate formula again, specifying a rate no lower than 8.9 percent to be used for the 2005 analysis. For subsequent years the capitalization rate was not to be lower than 8.3 percent. The 2009 Legislature amended the capitalization rate formula to set a minimum of 8.0 percent for 2009, 7.7 percent for 2010 and 7.4 percent for 2011. The capitalization rate calculated according to the formula was 6.25 percent. As a result, the minimum value of 7.4 percent was used for the 2011 assessment. The decrease of 30 basis points in the capitalization rate raised the land values by 4.0 percent without any other changes. 1 Extension Farm Management Economists, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics, North Dakota State University, Fargo.
Cost of Production Index Beginning with the analysis for the 1999 assessment, a cost of production index was added to the land valuation model to account for the increasing proportion of the total cost of production represented by variable costs. The source of data for this index is the Items Used For Production from the Prices Paid Index published by National Agricultural Statistics Service. The index developed for this analysis was determined by averaging the values of the latest ten years after dropping the high and low values; and dividing this value by the base index. The base index was developed by averaging the index values from the years 1989 through 1995 after dropping the high and low values. The base index value is 102. The resulting index value used in the 2011 analysis was 139.3382, which resulted in a reduction in the landowner share of gross returns of 28.23 percent. The landowner share of gross returns is the amount that is capitalized to determine the land values. Therefore, land values are 28.23 percent lower than they would have been if the cost of production index was not included in the model. The index used for 2011 increased from 131.375 in 2010, for a one-year change of 7.9632 points, the largest year-to-year increase since the cost of production index was added to the model. This change in the cost of production index from 2010 has the effect of reducing calculated land values by 5.72 percent, more than offsetting the increase caused by the lower capitalization rate. RESULTS: ALL AGRICULTURAL LAND VALUE Valuation of all agricultural land in North Dakota, for the 2011 assessment, increased by 5.4 percent or $17.97 per acre over the previous year. The largest percentage increases occurred in Hettinger County at 11.4 percent and Stark County at 10.1 percent. Values for all other counties increased less than 10 percent. Results are shown in Figure 1. 2
Figure 1. Percent Change in Average Value of All Agricultural Land, 2010-2011 Divide 7.8 Burke 9.1 Renville 9.8 Bottineau 9.3 Rolette 8.1 Towner 7.0 Cavalier 1.4 Pembina 1.2 Golden Valley 8.0 Williams 9.3 McKenzie 5.3 Billings 3.1 Mountrail 6.1 Dunn 4.6 Stark 10.1 Mercer 8.4 Ward 5.5 McLean 9.6 Oliver 5.6 Morton 6.5 McHenry 4.3 Sheridan 6.6 Burleigh 7.0 Pierce 6.9 Benson 5.7 Wells 8.9 Kidder 3.9 Ramsey 2.4 Eddy 5.6 Foster 6.5 Stutsman 4.6 Nelson 4.7 Griggs 4.6 Barnes 4.8 Walsh 2.0 Grand Forks 5.7 Steele 6.0 Traill 4.0 Cass 5.1 Slope 8.6 Bowman 6.4 Hettinger 11.4 Adams 8.0 Grant 6.6 Sioux 4.5 Emmons 8.1 Logan 6.6 McIntosh 8.7 LaMoure 6.0 Dickey 4.6 Ransom 3.3 Sargent 4.2 Richland 2.7 Average Value Increased Less Than 5% Average Value Increased 5.1-10% Average Value Increased Over 10% The value for all agricultural land is a weighted average of cropland and non-cropland in each county. Calculated values for cropland generally are three to five times the value of non-cropland in each county. Therefore, a shift in acres between these two categories will alter the all land value even if all other factors remain unchanged. County Directors of Tax Equalization are surveyed each year to determine total taxable acres of cropland and non-cropland as well as inundated land for each category. Changes in reported acres tend to be minimal. Shifting acres from cropland to non-cropland results in a lower value for all agricultural land independent of what happens to gross revenue, the capitalization rate and the cost of production index. 3
Five-Year Trend: All Agricultural Land Value Estimated values for 2011 were compared with values estimated for 2006 to see how they have changed over time. The percent change in value by county is shown in Figure 2. The average value for all agricultural land in North Dakota increased 22.7 percent from 2006 to 2011. Values increased 30 percent or more in eight counties, Williams, Divide, Burke and Renville in the northwestern corner of the state, along with Towner, Wells, Foster and McIntosh counties. Twenty-three counties experienced increases from 20.0 to 29.9 percent. Land values in 21 counties increased between 10.0 and 19.9 percent. Only Walsh County increased less than 10.0 percent. Figure 2. Percent Change in Average Value of All Agricultural Land, 2006-2011 Divide 32.8 Burke 35.9 Renville 36.5 Bottineau 29.7 Rolette 23.5 Towner 32.0 Cavalier 24.1 Pembina 12.6 Williams 30.3 McKenzie 10.6 Billings Golden 11.2 Valley 12.8 Slope 18.7 Bowman 16.8 Mountrail 20.8 Dunn 12.9 Stark 14.0 Hettinger 20.3 Adams 10.3 Mercer 16.7 Grant 19.1 Ward 25.4 McLean 23.8 Oliver 13.2 Morton 15.4 Sioux 23.0 McHenry 17.5 Sheridan 21.6 Burleigh 20.8 Pierce 22.6 Emmons 29.2 Benson 26.4 Wells 31.7 Kidder 20.3 Logan 23.6 McIntosh 31.6 Ramsey 17.2 Eddy 25.0 Foster 33.2 Stutsman 26.9 Nelson 16.6 Griggs 23.4 LaMoure 27.7 Dickey 19.6 Barnes 23.6 Walsh 9.3 Grand Forks 21.5 Steele 26.5 Ransom 15.3 Sargent 15.4 Traill 22.1 Cass 18.7 Richland 15.2 Average Value Increased 10 Percent or Less Average Value Increased 10.1 to 19.9 Percent Average Value Increased 20 to 29.9 Percent Average Value Increased 30 Percent or More 4
RESULTS: CROPLAND VALUE The average value of cropland in North Dakota increased by $26.43 per acre, or 6.0 percent. The largest increases in average cropland value were 12.4 percent in Hettinger County and 12.2 percent in Stark County. Other counties with average cropland value increases greater than 10 percent included Adams, Burke, Golden Valley, McIntosh, McLean, Mercer, Renville, Sioux, Slope and Williams. Cropland values increased in all other counties by less than 10 percent. See Figure 3. Changes in the capitalization rate and cost of production index impact all counties equally. The capitalization rate used for the 2011 analysis was the minimum value, 7.4 percent. The change in the capitalization rate increased values in all counties by 4.05 percent. The increase in the cost of production index resulted in a downward shift in land values in all counties of 5.72 percent from 2010. The net effect is that cropland values in all counties were down by 1.2 percent before any changes in productivity were included. Increased gross revenue due to increased yields and higher prices was the cause of increased cropland values calculated for 2011. Figure 3. Percent Change in Average Value of Cropland, 2010-2011 Divide 8.7 Burke 10.4 Renville 10.1 Bottineau 9.8 Rolette 8.6 Towner 7.1 Cavalier 1.5 Pembina 1.2 Golden Valley 11.2 Williams 11.2 McKenzie 8.1 Billings 6.3 Mountrail 7.5 Dunn 7.8 Stark 12.2 Mercer 10.6 Ward 5.9 McLean 10.1 Oliver 8.0 Morton 9.6 McHenry 5.0 Sheridan 7.8 Burleigh 9.0 Pierce 7.5 Benson 6.1 Wells 9.4 Kidder 5.0 Ramsey 5.1 Eddy 6.3 Foster 6.8 Stutsman 5.2 Nelson 5.0 Griggs 5.0 Barnes 5.0 Walsh 2.1 Grand Forks 5.8 Steele 6.2 Traill 4.1 Cass 5.1 Slope 11.4 Bowman 8.4 Hettinger 12.4 Adams 10.1 Grant 9.3 Sioux 10.9 Emmons 9.6 Logan 8.6 McIntosh 10.3 LaMoure 6.2 Dickey 5.2 Ransom 3.6 Sargent 4.4 Richland 2.8 Average Value Increased Less Than 5% Average Value Increased 5.1-10% Average Value Increased Over 10% 5
Five-year Trend: Cropland Value Cropland values have increased in all counties over the 2006-2011 period. The average value of North Dakota cropland was 23.4 percent higher in 2011 than in 2006. The rate of increase has been highly variable around the state as can be seen in Figure 4. Three counties in the southwest, Adams, Billings, and McKenzie, along with Walsh County in the northeast have 5-year increases of less than 10 percent. Cropland values increased by more than 10 percent in all other counties. The greatest increases were in McIntosh, Emmons, Wells, Foster, Towner, Bottineau, Renville, Burke, Williams, and Divide counties, all increasing by 30 percent or more. Figure 4. Percent Change in Average Value of Cropland, 2006-2011 Divide 34.9 Burke 38.9 Renville 37.0 Bottineau 30.4 Rolette 24.1 Towner 32.2 Cavalier 24.0 Pembina 12.6 Williams 32.5 McKenzie 8.2 Billings Golden 7.0 Valley 20.8 Slope 19.5 Bowman 14.1 Mountrail 21.9 Dunn 11.2 Stark 13.6 Hettinger 20.7 Adams 9.2 Mercer 16.9 Grant 20.7 Ward 26.2 McLean 24.1 Oliver 11.4 Morton 13.9 Sioux 28.2 McHenry 17.8 Sheridan 22.6 Burleigh 22.0 Pierce 23.2 Emmons 31.0 Benson 28.1 Wells 32.5 Kidder 19.1 Logan 25.8 McIntosh 34.1 Ramsey 20.0 Eddy 26.5 Foster 33.8 Stutsman 28.4 Nelson 17.0 Griggs 25.4 LaMoure 28.1 Dickey 21.6 Barnes 23.6 Walsh 9.2 Grand Forks 21.6 Steele 26.8 Ransom 15.2 Sargent 14.1 Traill 22.1 Cass 18.7 Richland 15.3 Average Value Increased 10 Percent or Less Average Value Increased 10.1 to 19.9 Percent Average Value Increased 20 to 29.9 Percent Average Value Increased 30 Percent or More 6
RESULTS: NON-CROPLAND VALUE The value of non-cropland (grazing land) decreased by 0.4 percent or $0.42 per acre for the 2011 assessment. The value of non-cropland is derived by calculating the value of the beef produced from grazing. The carrying capacity and the production per cow are held constant in the model. As a result, all change in non-cropland value is due to changes in the price of calves and cull cows and changes in the capitalization rate and the cost of production index. All of these factors apply equally across all counties. Therefore all counties experienced the same percentage decrease in non-cropland values relative to 2010. The price of calves and cull cows are used to determine the value of an animal unit month (AUM) of grazing. AUM is used as the measure of productivity of grazing land. Based on the price of calves and cull cows, an AUM had a value of $65.03 for the 2009 marketing year, the most recent year added to the data set. This was down from $67.56 the previous year. The value calculated for non-cropland, like cropland, is based on the average of the latest ten years after dropping the high and low years. Therefore, the average gross return is heavily influenced by the comparative values for the latest year added to the data set, relative to the year just removed from the data set. The average value per AUM for 1999, the year rolled out of the data set for this analysis, was $55.25. As a result, the increase in value for non-cropland is a combination of an increase in the value of production, a decrease due to the increase in the cost of production index and the increase due to the lower capitalization rate. Five-year Trend: Non-Cropland Value Non-cropland values increased 15.7 percent across the state from 2006 to 2011. All counties experienced the same change. CAPITALIZED AVERAGE ANNUAL VALUES PER ACRE BY COUNTY Two tables are provided displaying county values for 2010 and 2011. North Dakota Capitalized Average Annual Values per Acre by County for 2010 are shown in Table 1. North Dakota Capitalized Average Annual Values per Acre by County for 2011 are shown in Table 2. 7
Table 1. North Dakota Capitalized Average Annual Values Per Acre by County for 2010 Assessments County Cropland Noncropland All Agricultural Land Adams 222.95 92.93 173.63 Barnes 549.83 129.10 475.77 Benson 397.75 114.30 334.35 Billings 194.76 86.99 120.51 Bottineau 389.67 110.61 342.48 Bowman 238.42 76.77 158.87 Burke 324.93 101.71 257.32 Burleigh 300.46 102.03 210.82 Cass 680.89 131.27 665.52 Cavalier 530.79 112.18 472.96 Dickey 542.87 128.79 404.95 Divide 311.71 101.13 256.12 Dunn 237.19 92.69 146.74 Eddy 360.37 114.78 286.50 Emmons 375.89 101.04 260.09 Foster 468.69 110.49 404.09 Golden Valley 246.31 76.15 149.94 Grand Forks 624.72 128.85 582.21 Grant 243.89 93.17 166.80 Griggs 475.79 112.60 395.38 Hettinger 321.72 92.46 264.69 Kidder 310.14 103.04 218.74 LaMoure 562.19 133.19 505.73 Logan 335.61 101.67 222.96 McHenry 318.24 109.88 254.65 McIntosh 352.65 101.10 255.12 McKenzie 272.25 93.07 164.98 McLean 374.70 101.37 328.07 Mercer 266.83 92.64 191.40 Morton 268.47 92.86 166.91 Mountrail 324.53 100.99 231.22 Nelson 387.96 111.98 339.97 Oliver 316.11 93.14 186.19 Pembina 783.15 134.15 699.60 Pierce 340.67 109.90 291.31 Ramsey 400.58 115.14 348.17 Ransom 569.34 126.85 436.68 Renville 422.98 110.22 398.88 Richland 751.95 130.33 664.13 Rolette 360.98 111.80 318.11 Sargent 585.94 130.08 519.96 Sheridan 329.52 101.08 240.56 Sioux 236.57 92.94 122.75 Slope 279.99 84.69 179.61 Stark 267.49 93.35 202.75 Steele 610.43 114.41 541.99 Stutsman 445.93 127.23 345.25 Towner 414.69 114.82 401.32 Traill 744.87 130.08 697.65 Walsh 669.67 120.04 611.43 Ward 423.72 100.99 348.33 Wells 449.77 110.91 389.81 Williams 288.63 101.27 217.23 State 436.99 99.54 332.40 8
Table 2. North Dakota Capitalized Average Annual Values Per Acre by County for 2011 Assessments County Cropland Noncropland All Agricultural Land Adams 245.36 92.79 187.49 Barnes 577.42 128.91 498.61 Benson 422.14 114.13 353.47 Billings 206.97 86.86 124.22 Bottineau 427.74 110.45 374.41 Bowman 258.52 76.65 169.02 Burke 358.77 101.56 280.85 Burleigh 327.39 101.88 225.66 Cass 715.63 131.07 699.28 Cavalier 538.68 112.01 479.74 Dickey 570.92 128.60 423.59 Divide 338.75 100.98 275.98 Dunn 255.65 92.55 153.56 Eddy 383.24 114.62 302.49 Emmons 411.88 100.89 281.16 Foster 500.60 110.33 430.17 Golden Valley 273.99 76.04 161.88 Grand Forks 661.15 128.66 615.50 Grant 266.52 93.03 177.79 Griggs 499.41 112.43 413.72 Hettinger 361.75 92.33 294.78 Kidder 325.55 102.89 227.28 LaMoure 597.30 132.99 536.21 Logan 364.64 101.52 237.61 McHenry 334.06 109.72 265.59 McIntosh 389.06 100.95 277.44 McKenzie 294.33 92.94 173.77 McLean 412.66 101.22 359.52 Mercer 295.21 92.51 207.43 Morton 294.36 92.73 177.81 Mountrail 348.89 100.84 245.35 Nelson 407.49 111.82 356.11 Oliver 341.39 93.00 196.66 Pembina 792.73 133.95 707.92 Pierce 366.36 109.74 311.50 Ramsey 420.92 114.97 356.50 Ransom 589.95 126.66 451.10 Renville 465.52 110.06 438.14 Richland 773.08 130.14 682.22 Rolette 392.10 111.63 343.90 Sargent 611.56 129.89 541.84 Sheridan 355.28 100.94 256.34 Sioux 262.45 92.81 128.30 Slope 311.84 84.57 195.03 Stark 300.02 93.22 223.16 Steele 648.25 114.24 574.56 Stutsman 469.05 127.04 361.00 Towner 443.98 114.66 429.30 Traill 775.39 129.89 725.81 Walsh 683.61 119.86 623.88 Ward 448.91 100.84 367.39 Wells 492.17 110.74 424.61 Williams 321.05 101.12 237.35 State 463.42 99.12 350.37 9
MARKET VALUE OF NORTH DAKOTA FARM LAND The North Dakota Land Valuation Model was designed to estimate the value of agricultural land dependent solely on the revenue generated from the production of crops and beef cattle. The results of this model were not intended to reflect market value. Market value of farm land is influenced by numerous factors in addition to its productivity value. These include farm enlargement to gain economies of scale, land as an investment, recreational uses, development potential and the effect of government fiscal, monetary and tax policies. As a result, market value and productivity value often differ by a significant amount. The North Dakota Agricultural Statistics Service conducts an annual survey of farmers and ranchers to obtain rental rates and the value of rented land. The data from the 2011 survey were compared with the 2010 survey for cropland and pasture. Changes in market values by county for cropland varied widely across the state. This survey showed values declined in 2011 in Mountrail County by 8.8 percent and in Walsh County by 3.3 percent. Values increased 10.0 percent or less in 8 counties, from 10.1 to 20.0 percent in 15 counties and over 20.0 percent in 28 counties. The largest increases were in Benson County at 59.1 percent, Logan County at 49 percent and Eddy County at 41.2 percent. Percentage changes in market value for cropland by county are shown in Figure 5. 10
Figure 5. Percent Change in Estimated Market Value of Cropland, 2010-2011 Divide 31.4 Burke 14.2 Renville 34.4 Bottineau 5.9 Rolette 6.3 Towner 24.8 Cavalier 12.9 Pembina 23.3 Williams 15.6 McKenzie 24.5 Billings 8.1 Golden Valley 11.4 Slope 23.5 Bowman 32.7 Mountrail -8.8 Dunn 27.0 Stark 25.9 Hettinger 14.2 Adams 12.8 Mercer 26.2 Grant 30.5 Ward 22.4 McLean 12.6 Oliver 18.7 Morton 17.9 Sioux 14.8 McHenry 26.7 Burleigh 30.2 Pierce 16.4 Sheridan 25.0 Emmons 12.3 Benson 59.1 Wells 38.5 Kidder 8.1 Logan 49.0 McIntosh 27.7 Ramsey 23.3 Eddy 41.2 Foster 10.0 Stutsman 26.2 Nelson 25.5 LaMoure 13.6 Barnes 4.6 Walsh -3.3 Grand Forks 26.2 Griggs Steele 10.8 3.7 Dickey 22.0 Ransom 20.4 Sargent 9.4 Traill 35.1 Cass 18.7 Richland 21.6 Value Decreased Increased 0-10% Increased 10.1-20% Increased Over 20% 11
Five-year Trend: Market Value of Cropland The estimated market value of cropland reported by NASS has increased significantly more than the increase in productivity value over the 2006-2011 period. Foster County market value increased 167.4 percent, Logan County increased by 150.0 percent and Benson County by 148.8 percent. Other counties with increases of over 100 percent in market value were Towner, Grand Forks, Nelson, Wells, Eddy, Steele, Traill, Cass, Burleigh, Emmons, McIntosh, LaMoure, Dickey and Sargent. The majority of counties showed values had increased between 50.1 and 100 percent. Williams, Mountrail and Adams were the only counties to realize less than 50 percent increased value. Percentage changes in cropland market values are shown in Figure 6. Figure 6. Percentage Change in Estimated Market Value of Cropland, 2006-2011 Divide 77.1 Burke 57.0 Renville 80.6 Bottineau 58.3 Rolette 51.9 Towner 100.8 Cavalier 60.4 Pembina 73.7 Williams 48.3 McKenzie 56.2 Billings 71.6 Golden Valley 69.8 Mountrail 42.3 Dunn 80.4 Stark 99.6 Mercer 68.1 Ward 69.0 McLean 74.3 Oliver 63.7 Morton 56.7 McHenry 95.4 Burleigh 103.4 Pierce 90.5 Sheridan 80.4 Benson 148.8 Wells 110.8 Kidder 64.1 Ramsey 93.7 Eddy 110.8 Foster 167.4 Stutsman 86.1 Nelson 107.9 Barnes 85.2 Walsh 79.6 Grand Forks 132.1 Griggs Steele 99.3 121.2 Traill 132.2 Cass 102.7 Slope 75.9 Bowman 77.6 Hettinger 51.7 Adams 46.2 Grant 79.6 Sioux 79.9 Emmons 104.3 Logan 150.0 McIntosh 105.2 LaMoure 133.3 Dickey 129.2 Ransom 93.6 Sargent 121.1 Richland 80.1 Increased 0 50% Increased 50.1-100% Increased Over 100% 12
Market Value of Pasture The change in market value of pasture was highly variable across the state. All counties increased in value over 2010 however the magnitude of change was extremely variable. At the low end, Adams County increased by 2.2 percent, Nelson County increased 7.6 percent, Williams County increased 7.7 percent and Mountrail County increased 9.0 percent. The greatest increases were in Richland County at 61.0 percent and Cass County at 59.5 percent. These two counties have relatively small pasture acreage. With most land sales being predominantly cropland, the price increase for pasture land may have been influenced by the increase in cropland prices. Percentage changes in the market value of pasture are shown in Figure 7. Figure 7. Percent Change in Estimated Market Value of Pasture, 2010-2011 Divide 25.7 Burke 15.2 Renville 19.5 Bottineau 42.5 Rolette 26.9 Towner 19.5 Cavalier 11.0 Pembina 36.3 Williams 7.7 McKenzie 31.6 Billings Golden 13.9 Valley 18.8 Mountrail 9.0 Dunn 21.3 Stark 25.3 Mercer 22.8 Ward 27.2 McLean 15.2 Oliver 17.0 Morton 33.7 McHenry 17.3 Burleigh 24.2 Pierce 13.8 Sheridan 12.6 Benson 47.8 Wells 12.5 Kidder 15.0 Ramsey 12.7 Eddy 42.6 Foster 16.9 Stutsman 21.1 Nelson 7.6 Griggs 16.2 Barnes 11.9 Walsh 35.0 Grand Forks 31.4 Steele 30.9 Traill Cass 59.5 Slope 12.5 Bowman 13.2 Hettinger 14.8 Adams 2.2 Grant 18.8 Sioux 12.1 Emmons 15.4 Logan 21.6 McIntosh 10.2 LaMoure 23.8 Dickey 11.7 Ransom 18.6 Sargent 28.3 Richland 61.0 Value Increased Less Than 10% Increased 10.1-20% Increased 20.1-30% Increased Over 30% 13
Five-year Trend: Market Value of Pasture Since 2006, market value estimates of pasture have shown considerable strength across most of the state. See Figure 8. The amount of increase was variable throughout the state. The greatest increase in market values occurred in Foster County at 142.9 percent, followed by Sargent County at 117.5 percent and Eddy County at 116.5 percent. Values increased between 50 and 100 percent in 41 counties and less than 50 percent in 6 counties. No value was provided for Traill County due to insufficient survey responses. Figure 8. Percentage Change in Estimated Market Value of Pasture, 2006-2011 Divide 86.0 Burke 85.5 Renville 99.5 Bottineau 73.0 Rolette 56.7 Towner 64.0 Cavalier 75.9 Pembina 31.4 Williams 38.3 McKenzie 83.8 Billings Golden 70.9 Valley 86.7 Mountrail 45.5 Dunn 65.8 Stark 80.8 Mercer 55.0 Ward 60.1 McLean 52.9 Oliver 60.5 Morton 56.3 McHenry 81.7 Burleigh 84.9 Pierce 64.9 Sheridan 46.0 Benson 109.8 Wells 82.1 Kidder 67.6 Ramsey 59.0 Eddy 116.5 Foster 142.9 Stutsman 85.0 Nelson 85.1 Griggs 64.7 Barnes 71.7 Walsh 61.5 Grand Forks 61.1 Steele 97.5 Traill Cass 102.4 Slope 78.8 Bowman 62.4 Hettinger 38.3 Adams 30.3 Grant 68.3 Sioux 66.2 Emmons 85.1 Logan 68.3 McIntosh 71.3 LaMoure 82.1 Dickey 98.3 Ransom 87.1 Sargent 117.5 Richland 81.5 Increased 0-50% Increased 50.1 to 100% Increased over 100% 14
CONCLUSIONS Valuation of all agricultural land in North Dakota, based on productivity, increased by 5.4 percent or $17.97 per acre for the 2011 assessment as compared to the previous year. The average value of all agricultural land increased in all counties. The increases were greater than 10 percent in only Hettinger County at 11.4 percent and Stark County at 10.1 percent. The average value of cropland in North Dakota increased by $26.43 per acre or 6.0 percent. Noncropland values for all counties decreased by 0.4 percent from the previous year. The production of grazing units is held constant for non-cropland, only the values per unit change from year to year. The price of cull cows and calves, cost of production index and the capitalization rate are applied uniformly across all counties. Therefore, the percentage change in non-cropland value is the same for all counties. The increase in values for cropland and all agricultural land was due to the increased value of crop production. The value of production for most counties has been considerably higher since 2007 than prior years. This increase in value of production is a combination of increased yields, higher prices and a change in cropping mix. The change in crop revenue impacted land values from a negative 0.52 percent in Pembina County to an increase of 13.12 percent in Hettinger County. The capitalization rate change increased land valuations by 4.05 percent in all counties; while the cost of production index decreased land values in all counties by 5.72 percent. The capitalization rate used for the 2011 analysis was the minimum value of 7.4 percent. The 2009 Legislature changed the minimum rate to 7.7 percent for 2010 and 7.4 percent for subsequent years. The calculated rate based on the formula was 6.25 percent. The cost of production index increased by 7.9632 points over the previous year to 139.3382. The cost of production index reduced the landowner share of gross returns by 28.23 percent before this value was capitalized. Changes in market value of cropland and pasture, based on the survey of farmers and ranchers by North Dakota Agricultural Statistics Service, is included for comparison. Market values increased considerably more than productivity values as estimated in the land valuation model. Market values also have shown more variability across the state. This is expected due to the additional factors that influence market values. 15
REFERENCES North Dakota Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA, AAg Statistics No. 79; August 2010. North Dakota Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA, North Dakota 2011 County Rents & Values, April 2011. North Dakota Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA, North Dakota 2010 County Rents & Values, April 2010. 16