The Future of Freight and Goods Movement Policy D. Kim Beatley, P.E. Principal Norfolk, Norfolk, Virginia Virginia
Handling the Impending Trade Tsunami Balancing Economic & Community Interests
Today s Agenda Industry Pressures Facing the Freight Movement International Maritime Cargo Demand Trends Global Port productivity Comparisons Maritime Vessel Technology Trends Emerging New World Freight Development Models The Integrated Intermodal Freight Village Concept US Application of the Freight Village Model Video: Keystone State International Terminal
Major Trends in Facing the Freight Movement in the US
Global Trade: Current Course & Direction? Cargo Demands, Capacity, Funding, Port Productivity & Environmental Challenges North American Port Gateways
To Be Competitive Today... Marine/Intermodal Terminals Must Reduce Throughput Cost & Increase Cargo Velocity Securely as Environmental Stewarts
The North American Freight Paradox: The Nation s Ports and Their Intermodal Linkages are Experiencing the Best of Times and the Worst of Times in Terms of Growth and Demands on Capacity
At Current Productivity and Growth Levels by 2020 North American Ports & Their Associated Intermodal Systems Will Be Severely Congested
We do not have an intermodal system as such. Rather we have an aggregation of multiple, private and public modes, each of which are stove-piped within their own individual areas of interest with little or no true cross communication and collaboration.
NRDC Environmental Report Cards for Top 10 US Ports Ports face dramatic environmental challenges to meet these increasing cargo demands. Ports are viewed as having poor Environmental Report Cards achieving overall grades ranging from F to B- Average Grade C
Ports are Experiencing Dramatic Surges in Seaport Security Costs Port of Miami s Security Costs Today are 600% Higher Than that of 2001
Poll of the Top 1000 Blue Chip Multinational Shipper Priorities 38% Freight Rate 43% Schedule Reliability 12% Transit Time
Today s Logistics Truth: The customer wants more and is willing to pay less for it.
Southeast Asian Manufacturing Centroid Shift Current Inbound U.S. Cargo Flow U.S. Intermodal Rail Flow Western Centroid Shift Eastbound: All Water Flow Flow Eastbound: US Intermodal Rail Flow
Southeast Asian Manufacturing Centroid Shift Current Inbound U.S. Cargo Flow Western Centroid Shift U.S. U.S. Intermodal Rail Rail Flow Westbound All All Water/Suez Flow Westbound Intermodal U.S. U.S. Flow
International Maritime Cargo Demand Trends
Functional Classification of Global Maritime Cargoes All Maritime Cargo General Cargo Bulk Cargo Break Bulk Neo-Bulk Containerized Liquid Bulk Dry Bulk Sacks, Cartons, Crates, Drums, Pallets, Bags Lumber, Paper, Steel, Autos Containers, Lift On/Lift Off (Lo/Lo), Roll On/Roll Off (Ro/Ro) LNG, Petroleum, Molasses, Chemicals, Vegetable Oil Grain, Sand & Gravel, Scrap Metal, Coal/Coke, Clinker, Fertilizer
World Bank s 2010 Global Economic Prospects World Output will Increase 33% in 10 years Trillions $ Trillions $ 40 30 20 $ 30 Trillion $ 40 Trillion 10 0 2000 2010
World Container Forecast to 2024 in TEUs Forecast 243 M Growth Rate (CAGR) 1994 to 2004: 8.3 % 85 M Growth Rate (CAGR) 2004 to 2014: 6.1 % 2014 to 2024: 5.0% Source: Global Insight, 2004
TEUs in Millions 20 18 15 12 9 6 3 31 M TEUs 20.4 by 2011 Hong Kong 18.41 Singapore 2003 World Container Gateways The World s Top 10 Gateways Hong Kong Alone is Equal to the Top 15 US Container Ports 13.1 (2004) 11.28 Shanghai POLA + POLB 10.65 Shanzhen 10.36 0 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Pusan 8.84 Kaohsiung 7.11 Rotterdam US Ports 6.17 Hamburg 5.45 Antwerp Source: Port Engineering Management, Vol. 22- Issue 6 - December 2004
China North American Maritime Trade: Constant Bearing-Decreasing Range The Perfect Storm : Asian/China Imports
Mainland China Container Growth (CAGR) 27.3 % 25.9 % 30.1 % 17.1 % 35.4 % 5 Yr Average = 27.2% Increased Volume
China is Leading a Global Economic Rebound becoming the World s Manufacturing Powerhouse Global manufacturing is now centered in China. China will double its GDP by 2010 and quadruple it by 2020. By 2008 China will be the second largest global trading country. China s cargo, including Hong Kong loadings accounts for 70% of the total Pacific cargo flows. China s container volumes will increase from 60 million TEUs to over 100 million TEUs by 2010.
China s Ministry of Railways Signed a 5 year Cooperation Agreement with the US BNSF Railroad for Intermodal Rail Development Develop China s high volume efficient intermodal network $242 billion program to 2020 High volume intermodal freight corridors to major ports On-dock & near-dock intermodal transfer yards at ports Ministry to build 18 mega-terminals with 7 at seaports, 40 smaller Intermodal terminals
TEUs (in millions) Major Increase of Trade Expected Between U.S. and Latin Americas 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990 1990 1992 1992 Global Investment Shifts to Latin America 1994 1994 1996 1996 1.5 Million TEUs Chemicals Textiles Wood Products Electronics Vehicles 1998 1998 2000 2000 2010 2010 2016 2016 2025 2025 2035 2035 Forecasted: 16 Million TEUs @ 6% CAGR Expected 6 Million TEUs @ 3.5% CAGR
Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) Canada United States Largest Free Trade Zone In the World (Over $14 Trillion $ in 2005) Bahamas Cuba Cuba Mexico Jamaica Dominican Republic Belize Belize Haiti Honduras Haiti Lesser Guatemala Antilles Nicaragua El El Salvador A Tripling of US Exports Costa Costa Rica Rica with Venezuela Guyana the Majority Panama Suriname Colombia French Guiana Ecuador Bringing Manufactured Products to Brazil Peru Brazil Peru Central & South America Bolivia Central American Common Market Andean Community Andean Community & Mercosur Associate Mercosur Mercosur Associates NAFTA Caricom (15 countries) Chile Chile Chile Chile Paraguay Argentina Uruguay Falkland I. I. (UK.) (UK.) Tierra Tierra del del Fuego
20 U.S. Containerized Tonnage Forecast CAGR Total 79.2 119.5 188.7 236.6 355.6 7.8% 100 NE (Maine to Virginia) 6.3% 80 SE (NC to Tampa) Gulf (Mobile to El Paso) SW (San Diego to Oakland 6.6% 60 NW (Oregon to Alaska) 7.6% By 2020 Most US Container Port Gateways 7.2% 40 Will Double or Triple in Volume 1,000,000 Tons 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: DRI/McGraw Hill
2010 Projected Public Port Capacity Shortfall Capacity Shortfall 75% of the 16 Ports Studied will have Significant Capacity Problems by 2010
TEUs 15,000 12,000 9,000 Port Authority NY/NJ Long Range Regional Container Forecast (TEUs) Low (40' Channels) Base (45' Channels) High (50' Channels) ~4X 6,000 3,000 0 1995 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Planning Year Source: PANY/NJ Current Capacity
Port Authority of New York/New Jersey Port Inland Distribution Network (PIDN) CA ME 400 Miles Lake Ontario NY VT NH Atlantic Ocean Legend Barge Route Rail Route Inland Truck Route Lake Erie Pittsburg Buffalo PA Rochester Syracuse Albany Reading Port of Camden Port of Philadelphia Camden Hanover Port of Wilmington NJ MA New Have n CT R I 75 Miles Brockton Fall River Quonset Point Port of Bridgeport Port of New York/ New Jersey
Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Container and Intermodal 2020 Forecast TEUs (000s) (Loaded & Empty) 25 20 15 10 5 + 1996-2000 = 4.8% CAGR 2000-2020 = 6.2% CAGR Cargo will quadruple, a 320% change 57% Imports Container Intermodal Rail 51% Intermodal Split ~ 2X Current Capacity 0 1996 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 (Worse Case: Asian Crisis Steady-State)
+ San Pedro Bay Ports of orts of Los Angeles and Long Beach Container Growth Implications: At current growth and per acre productivity, in 18 years the two Ports will require 3,624 new acres of container terminal * * Source: Port of Long Beach
Global Port Productivity Comparisons
Global Port Terminal Productivity North American Ports Are Not As Productive As The Most Productive International Ports By a Factor Of More Than 4 To 1
Global Marine Terminal Productivity Growth (Circa 1995 to 2003) (Throughput measured in TEUs/Acre/Year) 2003 5YR CAGR 1995 2003 Asian Ports 8,834 18,500 19.9% European Ports 2,974 6,800 9.2% United States Ports 2,144 3,900 9.0% US West Coast Ports 3,567 4,300 US Gulf Coast Ports 2,816 4,000 US East Coast Ports 1,281 3,300 Source: 1995 & 2003 CI Yearbooks, Seaports of the Americas, Port Data 10.9% 3.7% 10.3%
2003 International Port Productivity Top 10 Ports in Millions of TEU Throughput Source: Computed from Seaports of the Americas 2003, Containerization International Yearbook - 2003 and port-provided data bases/interviews
2003 US Port Productivity Top 10 Ports (in TEUs of Throughput) Source: Computed from Seaports of the Americas 2003, Containerization International Yearbook - 2003 and port-provided data bases/interviews
Maritime Vessel Technology Trends
World Container Ship Evolution TEU Capacity Ideal X 1st Generation (Pre-1960-1970) 2nd Generation (1970-1980) Panamax 3rd Generation (1985) Post Panamax 4th Generation (1986-2000) Super Post Panamax 1,700 TEU 2,305 TEU 3,220 TEU 4,848 TEU 8,600 TEU 5th Generation (2000-2005)
Today s Mega Ships - Measuring Up Eiffel Tower 990 feet Regina Maersk 1043 Ft, 140 Ft wide, 6000+ TEUs
Today s Mega Ships - Measuring Up How Wide, How Deep? Pre-1970 1,700 TEU <10 Containers Wide 1970-1980 2,305 TEU 10-11 Containers Wide 1985 3,220 TEU 11-13 Containers Wide 1986-2000 4,848 TEU 13-17 Containers Wide 2000-2005 8,600+ TEU 17-24 Containers Wide SEA LEVEL
2005 COSCO Orders Four 10,000 TEU Vessels LENGTH OVERALL 349 M (1145 FT.) BREADTH 45.6 M (149.6 FT.) MAX. DRAFT OPERATING SPEED 17.2 M (56.4 FT.) 25.8 KNOTS Source: Lloyd s s Register, February 2005
The 15,000 TEU Containership the ship is a flight of fancy but such a ship is within the current state of the shipbuilder s art R. G. McLellan, P&O Containers
The 15,000 TEU Containership LOA. = 400 m (1,312 ft.) Draft = 14 m (46 ft.) BEAM = 69 m (226 ft.) 6-7 above deck 10-11 below deck 28 Wide 13 Wide 28 Across Panamax Dimensions
Container Ship-in-a-Slip Concept
Emergence of North American Fast Feeder Short-Sea Coastal Vessels The New Frontier: For Second Tier Smaller Ports 3,000 TEU Feeder Ship 10,000 to 15,000 TEU Mega Ship
Short Sea Shipping Coastwise Maritime Trade Taking Freight off of Congested Roads
Emerging New World Freight Development Models Integrated Intermodal Freight Village Concepts
Shanghai International Shipping Center Shanghai Close-Port New City LINGANGCITY Yangshan Deep Port Logistics Park
Shanghai Lingang Logistics Park Intermodal Facility Maximum Annual Capacity = Up to 5.6 Million TEUs (Approx. Equal to 1.5 times current PA NY/NJ Throughput
Keystone State International Logistics Hub (An Intermodal Freight Village Private Sector Initiated Start to a Public-Private Opportunity)
US Manufacturing Centers Employment Density by County
2020 Truck Freight Flows High-Value & Time Sensitive Products Source: USDOT FHWA Freight Analysis Framework
2020 NAFTA - US/Canada Truck Traffic US Highway Network (Tons) Source: USDOT FHWA Freight Analysis Framework
Rail Intermodal Flows, All Commodities (Rail Freight Density in Tons) Source: USDOT FHWA Freight Analysis Framework
Global & National Perspective of the Freight Landscape Thank You