Impact of Climate Change and Mediterranean Sea Level Rise on Egypt and the National Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation Presented by Khaled

Impact of Climate Change and Mediterranean Sea Level Rise on Egypt and the National Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation Presented by Khaled Kheireldin, Ph.D., PE Director of Climate Change Research Institute Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation Egypt

Definition of: Climate Change Climate change is a long-term change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods of time that range from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in the average weather conditions or a change in the distribution of weather events with respect to an average, for example, greater or fewer extreme weather events. Climate change may be limited to a specific region, or may occur across the whole Earth.

Global Warming of Climate Warming of the climate is definitely occurring and can be observed by the: Increases in global sea and air temperatures Widespread melting of snow and ice Rising global sea level

The land-ocean temperature index combines data on air temperatures over land with data on sea surface temperatures. ( Mean is the midpoint between the highest and lowest.) The black line shows the annual changes; the red line tracks 5-year periods. Source: NASA Goddard institute for Space Studies. (January 11, 2008)

Impacts of Climate Change Air temperature Sea level rise Precipitation form, timing and quantity

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Days Temprature C Evidence of Climate Change in Egypt City of Alexandria from 1957 to 2011 80 No of Rainfall Days 22 Avergae Temprature 70 60 50 21.5 21 40 20.5 30 20 10 20 19.5 0 19 Year y = -0.1405x + 317.87 Year y = 0.0098x + 1.108 مصدر البيانات الموقع االلكتروني http://www.tutiempo.net

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 No of Days Temprature C) Port Said City at the Entrance of Suez Canal 30 No of Rainy Days 23 Average Temprature 25 22.5 20 15 22 10 21.5 5 21 0 20.5 Year y = -0.0907x + 196.46 Year y = 0.0076x + 6.4716 مصدر البيانات الموقع االلكتروني http://www.tutiempo.net

Land Subsidence SLR Land Sunsidence SLR Soil Consolidation due to Gas and Oil Extraction Global Warming Causes Snow Melting

Vulnerable Areas (Delta, Shore Line, Islands)

Vulnerabilities Sectors and Zones 1- Most vulnerable sectors to climate change are: 1)Coastal Zones 2) Water Resources 3) Agriculture (14% of GDP) 2- Most Vulnerable Areas: Delta Area: Most Populated Area 40 Million are living in Nile Delta Coastal Zones (Mediterranean and Red Sea Coasts) Upper Nile Plateau

Population Density in Northern Delta Governorates

Population Density in Northern Delta Governorates

Population Density in Northern Delta Governorates

Population Density in Northern Delta Governorates

Population Density in Northern Delta Governorates

Approach for Studying the Impact of Climate Change on Egypt

Impact of Climate Change on the Different Sectors in Egypt

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources Sector Inflow to High Aswan Dam

Impact of Climate Change on Coastal Resources Sector الراين شانج جيانج زوجيانج ريد شايو فرايا ميكونج ماحاكام شط العرب جانج اندوس ماهانادي جودافاري كرشنا النيل النيجر سبو ملوية السنغال ارينوكو فولتا امازون المسيسبي جريجالفا سايو فرانسيسكو Significant Impact High Level Impact Moderate Impact

Impact of Climate Change on Coastal Resources Sector

Impact of Climate Change on Coastal Resources Sector (cont d)

Impacts of SLR and the vulnerability of coastal communities, economic sectors and natural systems in the areas of Ras El Bar, New Damietta City and Gamasa Cultivated land affected by high levels of groundwater until 2100 land affected by high levels of groundwater until 2100

Adaptation The UNFCCC defines it as actions taken to help communities and ecosystems cope with changing climate condition The IPCC describes it as adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities

Elements of adaptation Observation Assessment Planning Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation

Observation & Assessment

Certain & Un-Certain Future Challenges Facing WR in Egypt 2015 2025 2050 2075 2100 Estimated Rise in mean air Temperature ( o C) -- 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.5 Estimated % change in mean ETo & Water Requirements -- 4 % 8 % 13 % 18 % Estimated Population (million) -- 104 145 191 237 Estimated % change in Nile Flows Drying Scenario -- - 6 % -15 % -20 % -31 % Estimated % change in Nile Flows Wetting Scenario -- +10% +21% +24% +27% Rough Estimate of Reduction (Bil m3/yr) 3 5 8 10.5 13 Sea Level Rise 0.1-.22.24-.5 0.4-.8.5-.95 -Since we do not know what climate scenario would prevail in future, there will be UNERTAINTY in the developed adaptation strategy. -To Reduce this UnCertainty, we will considerd two average Scenarios: 1- An average range for the Wetting Nile flow scenarios ( + 27% for 2100), and 2- An average one for the Drying Nile flow scenarios ( - 31% for 2100) - Therefore Two Sets of estimated Future Water Budget Trends ( 2025, 2050, 2075 & 2100) are developed (one for the Drying scenario and one for the Wetting Scenario) 34 MhmdNour: Mainstreaming CC Adaptation Strategy

Assessment

Main Simplifying Assumptions used in developing these trends - Future Population are based on those of the Water Holding Company - Do not expect Increase in Nile Flows in the near future, situation my improve in future - Transbounday are based on very little information - Deep GW is non-renewable and has limitations - Rainfall Harvesting has relatively little contribution - Desalination will have a significant role w.r.t.drinking water - Shallow GW in the Delta is renewable & related to Nile flow and irrigation efficiency - Agricultural Drainage Re-Use is related to Irrigation efficiency and Nile Flows - Treated Waste Water will have increased contribution with increased municipal allocation - Drainage Water disposal to Sea is related to water availability but a must for salt balance - Sea Water Agriculture is still in research stage and is promising should have more attention - Water Quality: It is assumed that all possible measures will be taken to protect water bodies

Billion m^3/year Billion m^3/year 100 80 2050 Dry (-15%) 2050 Wet (21%) 60 40 20 0 100 80 60 40 20 0 Drinking (Fresh Water Only) Industry 2050 Dry (-15%) 2050 Wet (21%) Agriculture (Adjusted) Drainage to Sea Evap. Losses Env. Balance Total Water Usage or Allocation

Planning

Risks to Egypt Water Security R1: Drought and Water Scarcity R2: Floods R3: High Water Consumption R4: Sea Level Rise Each of these Risks has its Consequences Adaptation Measures are Defined & Classified for these Consequences

Adaptation Measures are Defined for the Consequences & Classified according to : Category : (Infra-structure, Managerial, or Technical) Scale and Size: (Regional, National, or Local) Technical Feasibility: (Low, Moderate, or High) Adaptive Capacity: (Low, Moderate, or High) Potential Cost: (Low, Moderate, or High) Time Span: (Short, Medium, or Long) Response: (Proactive, or Reactive), and Regret: (Low regret, No regret, or Regrettable)

Developing Implementation Plans Policy, legal and institutional framework Understand the vulnerability Information needs Impact assessment Evaluate Vulnerability assessment Development of measures Next Step Financial arrangements The Dynamic nature of climate change adaptation strategies 45

Budget Details for different risks (Personal Assessment)

Budget Details for different risks (Personal Assessment)

- Total Budget, CC Adaptation Strategy, (Personal Assessment) Estimated Climate Change Adaptation Budget till 2050 for the 4 Defined Rrisks (Billion LE) 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 48

Where we are Standing NOW, We still at the very Beginning; BUT on the Road, and we have to start Acting 49 Now we are standing Here

ROAD MAP for Implementing CC Aaptation Strategy The Road Map is a set of forward looking strategies within a time frame, A road map must be: S M A R T [ Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic, Time bound] The Road Map Should Involve all stakeholders like: - Policy makers and planners - Research and Educational Institutions - Community Organizations - Development Institutions - Private Companies 4 Steps to formulate the Road Map.. 50

Guidelines for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector 4 Main Steps Stakeholders Involvement Institutinal Analysis Stakeholders Identifiction National Plans Capacity Needs STEP 1: SITUATION ANALYSIS Building on Existing Systems Budgeting Public Awareness Governance Capacity Building STEP 2: ENABLING ENVIRONMENT Mainstreaming Team Identify Entry points for Mainstreaming Capacity Needs Climate - Proofed National Plans Stakeholders Identification STEP 3: PLANNIING & POLICY STRUCTURE STEP 4: INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE 51 Flow Diagram of Mainstreaming CC Adaptation

The Way Forward Create informed consensus on climate change risks, objectives and policies. Define the roles and responsibilities of all stakeholders (sectoral agencies, different ministries and different levels implementing and evaluating bodies). Strengthen the networks in Knowledge creation and dissemination Network among capacity building agencies and institutions Implementing suitable support system Feedback to national policies, state policies and international negotiations 52

Adaptation Process Example: Coastal Zone

Sand Dunes systems should be treated as the first defensive line for the Nile Delta. Coastal Lakes are appropriate adaptive measure against sea level rise. International Coastal Road may be considered as the second protection measure and studies to support it are urgently required. Coastal Protection work needs regular maintenance and should be considered in any coastal zone management plans. The Northwest Coast extended from Alexandria to the Egyptian- Libyan borders is not vulnerable as it has elevation more than 10 m above average sea water level.

1- Utilizing Dredged Bed Material from Damietta Port Approaching Channel in Beach Nourishment Proposed nourished areas

2- Coastal Sand Dunes Stabilizing International coastal road Sand Dunes At the West Side of Rosseta Region

3- Coastal Lakes as an Appropriate Adaptive Measure against Sea Level Rise Manzala Lake management Coastal Lakes are appropriate adaptive measure against sea level rise. Sampling locations According to DO According to NH 3

4- Managed Alignment Ras-El-Bar City shore before Shore protection Ras-El-Bar City shore After Shore protection

Thank you