TABLE OF CONTENTS PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PART B SPECIAL FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY ANNEXES
INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE 1 OVERVIEW 2 OIL MARKET OUTLOOK 3 NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOOK 4 COAL MARKET OUTLOOK 5 POWER SECTOR OUTLOOK 6 ENERGY EFFICIENCY OUTLOOK 7 ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 8 WATER-ENERGY NEXUS 9 RENEWABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK 10 COMPETITIVENESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY 11 INTEGRATION OF VARIABLE RENEWABLES IN POWER SYSTEMS 12 ANNEXES
Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 Executive Summary 21 Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS 29 1 Introduction and scope 31 1.1 Defining the scenarios 32 1.2 Developing the scenarios 37 1.2.1 Inputs to the modelling 38 1.2.2 International prices and technology costs 45 2 Overview 57 Ten questions on the future of energy 58 2.1 Has the world broken the link between rising economic activity, energy demand and energy-related CO 2 emissions? 58 2.2 Which fuels and technologies are poised to do well in the new energy order? 63 2.3 Are there limits to growth for renewable energy? 68 2.4 Staying below the 2 o C climate change limit: what would be required? 72 2.5 What can the energy sector do to reduce air pollution? 77 2.6 Energy investment is capital heading where it is needed? 81 2.7 How might the main risks to energy security evolve over the coming decades? 86 2.8 Are we on the path to achieving universal access to energy? 92 2.9 Changing places: is global spending on energy subsidies shifting from fossil fuels and in favour of renewable energy sources? 97 2.10 Does energy reform point a new way forward for Mexico? 101 3 Oil market outlook 107 3.1 Recent market and policy developments 108 3.2 Trends to 2040 by scenario 109 3.2.1 Medium-term dynamics 109 3.2.2 Long-term scenarios 110 14 World Energy Outlook 2016
3.3 A closer look at the New Policies Scenario 114 3.3.1 Demand 114 3.3.2 Production 127 3.3.3 Refining 141 3.3.4 Trade 142 3.4 Investment trends and risks 144 3.4.1 Upstream investment needs: mind the gap? 145 3.4.2 The impact of climate targets on upstream oil assets 153 4 Natural gas market outlook 161 4.1 Recent market and policy developments 162 4.2 Trends to 2040 by scenario 163 4.2.1 Medium-term dynamics 163 4.2.2 Long-term scenarios 165 4.3 A closer look at the New Policies Scenario 168 4.3.1 Demand 168 4.3.2 Supply 176 4.3.3 Regional demand and supply insights 182 4.3.4 Trade 194 4.3.5 Investment 199 5 Coal market outlook 203 5.1 Recent market and policy developments 204 5.2 Trends to 2040 by scenario 205 5.2.1 Medium-term dynamics 205 5.2.2 Long-term scenarios 205 5.3 A closer look at the New Policies Scenario 210 5.3.1 Demand 210 5.3.2 Supply 214 5.3.3 Regional insights 223 6 Power sector outlook 241 6.1 Recent policy and market developments 242 6.2 Trends to 2040 by scenario 244 6.2.1 Accelerating the transition: power generation in the 450 Scenario 251 6.3 A closer look at the New Policies Scenario 254 6.3.1 Electricity demand 254 6.3.2 Capacity and generation 258 6.3.3 Investment 262 6.3.4 End-user electricity prices 265 Table of Contents 15
6.3.5 Carbon-dioxide emissions from the power sector 267 6.3.6 Regional insights 268 7 Energy efficiency outlook 283 7.1 Introduction 284 7.2. Current status of energy efficiency 284 7.2.1 Recent and historical trends 284 7.2.2 Energy efficiency regulation and prices 289 7.3 Outlook for energy efficiency 292 7.3.1 Sectoral trends 294 7.3.2 Multiple benefits 296 7.4 Focus: Electric motor-driven systems 297 7.4.1 Introduction 297 7.4.2 Energy and emissions trends for electric motor systems 302 7.4.3 Investments in energy efficiency in electric motor systems 307 7.4.4 Policy recommendations for electric motor systems 309 8 Energy and climate change 313 8.1 Introduction 314 8.2 Recent developments 315 8.3 NDCs and the energy sector: emissions trends in the New Policies Scenario 316 8.3.1 What is in the Nationally Determined Contributions? 316 8.3.2 Emissions trends in the New Policies Scenario 318 8.4 From NDCs to 2 C: steps in the 450 Scenario 327 8.4.1 Steps in the power sector 328 8.4.2 Steps in the transport sector 330 8.4.3 Steps in the industry sector 331 8.4.4 Steps in the buildings sector 332 8.5 Revisiting temperature thresholds after COP21 333 8.5.1 Making the temperature goal tangible: implications for CO 2 budgets and emissions trajectories 334 8.5.2 The energy sector to 2040 in a well below 2 C world 340 8.5.3 The energy sector in a 1.5 C world 343 9 Water-energy nexus 347 9.1 Overview 348 9.1.1 The state of global water resources 348 16 World Energy Outlook 2016
9.1.2 Water demand by sector 351 9.2 Water for energy 352 9.2.1 Overview 352 9.2.2 Future water requirements for energy production 359 9.2.3 Impact of climate variability on hydropower 364 9.3 Energy for water 368 9.3.1 Overview 368 9.3.2 Energy requirements for water in the New Policies Scenario 377 9.3.3 Measures to save energy 381 9.4 Stress points and solutions 384 9.4.1 Potential stress points 385 9.4.2 Policy solutions 393 Part B: SPECIAL FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY 395 10 Renewable energy outlook 397 10.1 Introduction 398 10.2 Recent developments 400 10.2.1 Policy developments 402 10.2.2 Market developments 406 10.3 Overview of trends by scenario 411 10.4 Outlook in the New Policies Scenario 414 10.4.1 Electricity 415 10.4.2 Heat 421 10.4.3 Transport 426 10.5 Outlook in the 450 Scenario 428 10.5.1 Electricity 429 10.5.2 Heat 432 10.5.3 Transport 435 11 Competitiveness of renewable energy 443 11.1 Introduction 444 11.2 Electricity 448 11.2.1 Technology costs 448 11.2.2 Value of renewables-based electricity 458 Table of Contents 17
11.2.3 Competitiveness of renewables-based electricity 464 11.2.4 Support to make renewables-based electricity financially attractive 470 11.3 Heat 474 11.3.1 Technology costs 474 11.3.2 Competitiveness of renewables-based heat 476 11.3.3 Support to make heat from renewables financially attractive 482 11.4 Transport 484 11.4.1 Technology costs 484 11.4.2 Competitiveness of renewables in transport 486 11.4.3 Support to make renewables in transport financially attractive 488 11.5 Cost effectiveness of renewables 489 11.5.1 Energy security 489 11.5.2 Air pollution 490 11.5.3 Affordability 491 12 Integration of variable renewables in power systems 495 12.1 Overview 496 12.1.1 Context 496 12.1.2 Global trends of wind and solar PV in the New Policies Scenario and the 450 Scenario 496 12.1.3 Characteristics of variable renewables and the integration challenge 497 12.2 Integration measures 502 12.2.1 System-friendly deployment of variable renewables 504 12.2.2 Flexible power plants 506 12.2.3 Energy storage 508 12.2.4 Demand-side response 512 12.2.5 Transmission and distribution networks 520 12.3 Country case studies: integrating VRE in the 450 Scenario 525 12.3.1 United States 526 12.3.2 European Union 531 12.3.3 India 536 12.4 Policy and market framework 541 12.4.1 Unlock the flexibility in the existing power system 542 12.4.2 Prioritise VRE projects that are of high value to the power system 543 12.4.3 Enable new investments needed to increase flexibility and ensure market participation 543 18 World Energy Outlook 2016
ANNEXES Annex A. Tables for scenario projections 547 Annex B. Policies and measures by scenario 627 Annex C. Definitions 639 Annex D. References 653 Table of Contents 19
List of figures Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS Figures for Chapter 1: Introduction and scope 1.1 Selected carbon pricing schemes in place as of mid-2016 40 1.2 Changes in GDP and energy demand in selected countries and regions, 2000-2014 41 1.3 Trends in oil and coal prices and US dollar value 43 1.4 Average IEA crude oil import price by scenario 48 1.5 Natural gas prices by region in the New Policies Scenario 49 1.6 Steam coal prices by region in the New Policies Scenario 52 1.7 Recent cost trends for selected technologies 53 Figures for Chapter 2: Overview 2.1 Global GDP, energy demand and energy-related CO 2 emissions trajectories by scenario 60 2.2 Energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario 61 2.3 Change in total final consumption in China in the New Policies Scenario 63 2.4 Global primary energy mix in the New Policies Scenario 67 2.5 Shares of global demand met by renewable energy in selected sectors in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios 69 2.6 Evolution of the power generation mix in the 450 Scenario 70 2.7 Global primary energy demand and related CO 2 emissions by scenario 73 2.8 Emissions intensity of global electricity generation in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios 74 2.9 Indicative global energy sector emissions budgets and trajectories for different decarbonisation pathways 75 2.10 Estimated anthropogenic emissions of the main air pollutants by source, 2015 78 2.11 Change in energy demand and energy-related air pollutants in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario, today to 2040 80 2.12 Premature deaths attributable to global air pollution in the New Policies and Clean Air Scenarios, 2040 81 2.13 Cumulative global power sector investment in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios, 2016-2040 85 2.14 Diversity of the primary energy mix by scenario and selected region 87 2.15 Global fossil-fuel trade in the New Policies Scenario 88 2.16 Share of electricity in the growth in final energy consumption in selected end-use sectors in the New Policies Scenario 89 2.17 Global energy use in the water sector and water use in the energy sector in the New Policies Scenario 91 2.18 Evolution of access to clean cooking and to electricity by selected region in the New Policies Scenario 93 2.19 Share of solid biomass in residential energy use by selected region in the New Policies Scenario 95 2.20 Comparison of WEO-2004 projections for energy access with estimates for 2014 96 20-I World Energy Outlook 2016
2.21 Estimates for global fossil-fuel consumption subsidies and subsidies for renewables 99 2.22 Oil production in Mexico in the New Policies Scenario 102 2.23 Power generation mix in Mexico in the New Policies Scenario 103 2.24 Selected indicators for Mexico in the No Reform Case compared with the New Policies Scenario, 2040 104 Figures for Chapter 3: Oil market outlook 3.1 World oil demand and price by scenario 110 3.2 Growth in international shipping activity and fuel consumption in the New Policies Scenario 118 3.3 Electric vehicles in circulation in the New Policies Scenario 124 3.4 Average payback times for electric vehicles in the New Policies Scenario 125 3.5 Change in global oil product demand in the New Policies Scenario 126 3.6 IEA Upstream Investment Cost Index and oil price 130 3.7 Change in non-opec and OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario 131 3.8 US tight oil production as a function of estimated resources 133 3.9 Sensitivity of US tight oil production in 2025 to oil prices and resource availability 134 3.10 Change in Iraq and Iran oil production in the New Policies Scenario 140 3.11 Crude oil trade in major regions in the New Policies Scenario 143 3.12 Conventional crude oil resources receiving approval worldwide 146 3.13 Loss of oil production from post-peak fields resulting from the drop in investment in 2015 147 3.14 Capital investment into oil project types starting between 2010 and 2015 by selected country 149 3.15 Rates of production after approval for various project types 150 3.16 Global supply outlook from selected sources in the New Policies Scenario 151 3.17 Global conventional crude oil project approvals required to fill supply-demand gap in 2025 153 3.18 Global oil demand and observed decline in current supply sources in the 450 Scenario 155 3.19 Global oil demand in a Disjointed Transition Case 159 Figures for Chapter 4: Natural gas market outlook 4.1 Liquefaction capacity by key region 164 4.2 World natural gas demand by scenario 166 4.3 Change in gas demand in selected regions in the 450 Scenario 168 4.4 Gas demand by selected regions in the New Policies Scenario 171 4.5 World gas demand growth by sector in the New Policies Scenario 172 4.6 Levelised cost of electricity generation for existing and new coal and gas plant by key region, 2025 173 4.7 Annual average running cost of a heat pump and a gas boiler in non energy-intensive industry in the European Union 174 4.8 US shale gas production as a function of the resource estimate 177 4.9 US shale gas production as a function of the price trajectory 178 4.10 Evolution of key well parameters in the Marcellus shale gas play 179 4.11 US power sector gas demand as a function of the coal price 183 Table of Contents 20-II
4.12 Natural gas demand by sector and supply by country in the Middle East in the New Policies Scenario 185 4.13 Natural gas imports in the European Union by exporter and transport mode in the New Policies Scenario 188 4.14 Main shale gas resource-holders and Latin America s share in global shale gas resources, end-2015 192 4.15 Natural gas production by country and gas type in South America and Mexico in the New Policies Scenario 193 4.16 Change in gas imports by region in the New Policies Scenario 194 4.17 Selected global gas trade flows in the New Policies Scenario 195 4.18 Global gas trade by exporter in the New Policies Scenario 197 4.19 Global regasification capacity by technology 199 4.20 Change in gas production by selected region in the New Policies Scenario 200 4.21 Cumulative global gas investment by component and key region in the New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 201 Figures for Chapter 5: Coal market outlook 5.1 Global coal demand and share of coal in world primary energy demand by scenario 206 5.2 Average OECD steam coal import price and global coal trade by scenario 210 5.3 Growth of global GDP, coal demand and CO 2 emissions from coal use in the New Policies Scenario 211 5.4 Change in coal demand by key region in the New Policies Scenario 212 5.5 Global coal demand by key sector in the New Policies Scenario 214 5.6 Global coal trade by exporter in the New Policies Scenario 217 5.7 FOB cash costs and market volume for global seaborne steam coal trade 219 5.8 Change in coal prices in local currencies and US dollars 222 5.9 Steel output by production route in China and the rest of the world in the New Policies Scenario 225 5.10 Profit margin of a new Chinese coal plant and an existing European coal plant, 2015 227 5.11 Chinese coal trade in the New Policies Scenario 228 5.12 Average costs of steam coal delivered to southern coastal China by origin, 2015 229 5.13 Electricity generation by source and power sector CO 2 emissions in the United States in the New Policies Scenario 230 5.14 Average cash-margins of existing US coal mining capacities in the New Policies Scenario 232 5.15 Incremental coal demand to 2040 by key sector in India in the New Policies Scenario 233 5.16 Major exporters of coal by type in the New Policies Scenario 236 5.17 Indicative FOB cash-cost range by key exporter and average coal price by type, 2015 237 5.18 Major importers of coal by type in the New Policies Scenario 239 Figures for Chapter 6: Power sector outlook 6.1 Electricity demand by region and scenario 244 6.2 Change in global electricity demand in 2040 in the 450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 247 20-III World Energy Outlook 2016
6.3 Global electricity generation by fuel and scenario 248 6.4 Global CO 2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion in the power sector by scenario 250 6.5 Growth in generation to 2040 by low-carbon technology in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios 252 6.6 Global annual capacity additions of low-carbon technologies in the 450 Scenario 253 6.7 Growth in global electricity demand by sector and electricity s share of sector demand in the New Policies Scenario 255 6.8 Electricity demand in buildings by equipment and region in the New Policies Scenario 256 6.9 Change in electricity demand by sector and region in the New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040 257 6.10 Global installed generation capacity in the New Policies Scenario 258 6.11 Global generation by fuel and demand in the New Policies Scenario 262 6.12 Cumulative power sector investment in the New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 263 6.13 End-user electricity prices in the New Policies Scenario 266 6.14 Carbon intensity of electricity generation by region in the New Policies Scenario 267 6.15 Electricity demand and generation in the United States in the New Policies Scenario 269 6.16 Electricity demand and generation in the European Union in the New Policies Scenario 271 6.17 Electricity demand and generation in Japan in the New Policies Scenario 273 6.18 Electricity demand and generation in China in the New Policies Scenario 275 6.19 Electricity demand and generation in India in the New Policies Scenario 277 6.20 Electricity demand and generation in Southeast Asia in the New Policies Scenario 279 6.21 Electricity demand and generation in the Middle East in the New Policies Scenario 281 Figures for Chapter 7: Energy efficiency outlook 7.1 Change in global energy-related CO 2 emissions by driver 285 7.2 Income per capita and energy intensity by selected region, 1990-2015 286 7.3 Share of global final energy consumption covered by mandatory energy efficiency regulation 290 7.4 Energy prices and energy efficiency levels by sector, 2014 291 7.5 Average annual change in global final energy consumption by driver in the New Policies Scenario 293 7.6 Energy intensity in selected countries/regions in the New Policies Scenario 294 7.7 Share of energy expenditures as a call on global household income 296 7.8 World energy-related CO 2 emissions abatement by scenario 297 7.9 Global total final electricity consumption by end-uses, 2014 298 7.10 Illustration of two industrial electric motor-driven systems: (a) normal and (b) efficient 299 7.11 Illustration of energy-saving options in electric motor systems 302 7.12 Final electricity consumption in motor-driven systems in the New Policies Scenario and 450 Scenario 303 Table of Contents 20-IV
7.13 Share of global industrial electricity use in motor systems in the New Policies Scenario 304 7.14 Global industrial electricity consumption by motor efficiency class in the New Policies Scenario 305 7.15 Change in global demand in industrial electric motor-driven systems 306 7.16 Efficiency improvements in global industrial electric motor-driven systems in 2040 compared with today 307 7.17 Global cumulative investment in electric motor-driven systems in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios, 2016-2040 308 Figures for Chapter 8: Energy and climate change 8.1 Change in global economic output, energy demand and energy-related CO 2 emissions 315 8.2 Recent global decarbonisation trends in the energy sector 316 8.3 Energy-related CO 2 emissions by region in the New Policies Scenario 319 8.4 Emissions intensity of economic growth in the New Policies Scenario 323 8.5 Emissions intensity per unit of primary energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario 325 8.6 Global CO 2 emissions reductions in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios 327 8.7 Growth in global electricity generation and related CO 2 emissions in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios 328 8.8 Global CO 2 emissions savings in the power sector in the 450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 329 8.9 Global transport fuel demand in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios, 2040 330 8.10 Global direct CO 2 emissions savings in the industry sector in the 450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 332 8.11 Global direct and indirect CO 2 emissions savings in the buildings sector in the 450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, 2040 333 8.12 Uncertainty in associating remaining CO 2 budgets to probabilities of temperature rises in 2100 336 8.13 Pathways for energy-related CO 2 emissions under different CO 2 budgets, with and without BECCS 339 8.14 Global energy-related CO 2 emissions by selected sector in the 450 Scenario, 2040 341 8.15 Global fossil-fuel demand and low-carbon power generation in the 450 Scenario and a well below 2 C case, 2040 343 8.16 Energy sector CO 2 emission pathways consistent with a 1.5 C temperature rise 345 Figures for Chapter 9: Water-energy nexus 9.1 Global water demand by sector to 2040 352 9.2 Water withdrawals in the energy sector, 2014 354 9.3 Water use for electricity generation by cooling technology 355 9.4 Water use for primary energy production 358 9.5 Global water use by the energy sector by fuel and power generation type in the New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040 360 9.6 Global water use by the energy sector by scenario 363 9.7 Difference in annual water availability between a severe and moderate climate pathway in Latin America in 2040 366 20-V World Energy Outlook 2016
9.8 Energy use for various processes in the water sector 368 9.9 Processes of the water sector 369 9.10 Electricity consumption in the water sector by process and region, 2014 371 9.11 Water supply by source by region, 2014 372 9.12 Water losses by region, 2014 374 9.13 Typical energy consumption in a wastewater treatment facility 375 9.14 Energy demand for desalination and re-use, 2014 377 9.15 Electricity consumption in the water sector by process 378 9.16 Additional desalination and increased electricity demand, 2014-2040 380 9.17 Electricity savings in the water sector by process in the 450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 382 9.18 Share of withdrawal and consumption by fuel or technology and total water intensity by scenario, 2014 and 2040 386 9.19 Electricity consumption and intensity in the water sector in the New Policies Scenario, 2014 and 2040 388 9.20 Water and electricity prices by selected country, 2015 389 9.21 Water production from seawater desalination in the Middle East and North Africa by input fuel and scenario 392 Part B: SPECIAL FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY Figures for Chapter 10: Renewable energy outlook 10.1 World share of renewable energy by sector and type, 2014 400 10.2 Renewable energy policy coverage by country and type 404 10.3 Solar PV targets and deployment in China and the United States 405 10.4 Average renewables investment as a share of GDP (2010-2014) and renewable energy jobs in selected regions, 2015 406 10.5 World renewables-based power capacity additions by type and share of total additions 407 10.6 Index of solar PV unit investment costs in selected markets 410 10.7 Share of global demand met by renewables in selected sectors in The New Policies and 450 Scenarios 413 10.8 Share of renewables by use in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario, 2040 415 10.9 World power generation capacity by type in the New Policies Scenario 416 10.10 Power capacity additions by region and type in the New Policies Scenario 417 10.11 Change in total electricity demand and renewables-based power generation in the New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040 418 10.12 Mini- and off-grid electricity generation for electricity access in a universal access scenario, 2040 420 10.13 Growth in industrial heat demand by fuel and region in the New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040 423 10.14 Space and water heating demand in buildings by region in the New Policies Scenario, 2040 425 10.15 Share of final energy use in transport by sub-sector and fuel in the New Policies Scenario, 2040 427 Table of Contents 20-VI
10.16 Global energy-related CO 2 emissions by scenario and additional CO 2 abatement by measure in the 450 Scenario 429 10.17 World power sector CO 2 emissions by scenario and fuel 430 10.18 Annual power capacity additions for wind and solar PV by region in the 450 Scenario 431 10.19 Share of electricity supply from low-carbon sources in selected regions in the 450 Scenario, 2040 432 10.20 Change in heat consumption by fuel in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios, 2014-2040 433 10.21 Share of households using solar water heaters by country and scenario, 2014 and 2040 435 10.22 Demand for ethanol and biodiesel by region in the 450 Scenario 436 10.23 Shares of renewable and nuclear energy in total primary energy supply in the Nordic countries, 2014 438 10.24 Decarbonisation of district heating through taxation in Sweden 439 10.25 Per-capita CO 2 emissions by sector in the Nordic region 440 Figures for Chapter 11: Competitiveness of renewable energy 11.1 Key terms for renewable energy projects 445 11.2 Projected and actual global weighted average capital costs for solar PV, 2010-2015 447 11.3 Average levelised costs of electricity by technology and region for projects completed in 2015 451 11.4 Auction energy price versus LCOE for the same solar project 452 11.5 Sensitivity of the LCOE of solar PV to varying parameters 453 11.6 Global wind and solar PV capacity additions and capital cost reductions across regions by scenario to 2040 455 11.7 Historic and projected average capital costs for utility-scale solar PV in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario 456 11.8 Average levelised costs of electricity by region, technology and scenario, 2040 457 11.9 Average revenues received for utility-scale renewables by technology and scenario in selected regions, 2015-2040 460 11.10 Percentage of hours in the year with simulated market prices near zero by selected regions in the 450 Scenario, 2015-2040 462 11.11 Indicative evolution of the value of distributed renewables-based electricity consumed onsite 463 11.12 Average LCOEs and revenues for wind and solar PV in selected regions in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios, 2015-2030 466 11.13 Share of generation from new renewable energy projects that do not require subsidies by technology in the New Policies Scenario 468 11.14 Generation from solar PV and wind power installations by subsidy level in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios 469 11.15 Renewables-based electricity support and cumulative total generation in New Policies and 450 Scenarios 471 11.16 Estimated average subsidy rates for new solar PV and wind power plants in the New Policies Scenario 472 11.17 Global subsidies to renewables-based electricity generation in the New Policies Scenario, 2015 and 2040 473 20-VII World Energy Outlook 2016
11.18 Change in the cost of a solar water heater in the New Policies Scenario, 2005-2040 475 11.19 Typical levelised cost of heat production in industrial boilers by fuel in selected regions 477 11.20 Annual expenditure for space heating options and demand by fuel in the European Union in the New Policies Scenario, 2020 479 11.21 Annual expenditure for water heating equipment in India in the New Policies Scenario, 2020 481 11.22 Sensitivity analysis of levelised cost of advanced biofuels production 485 11.23 Levelised costs of biofuels production by feedstock and ex-tax price of fuel for selected regions 487 11.24 Evolution of subsidies for liquid biofuels in the New Policies Scenario 488 11.25 Share of domestically sourced energy supply in selected regions by scenario, 2014 and 2040 490 11.26 Total costs of power supply in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios, 2016-2040 492 11.27 Total residential electricity bills in 2040 by region in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios 493 Figures for Chapter 12: Integration of variable renewables in power systems 12.1 Share of wind and solar PV in total electricity generation by region in the New Policies and the 450 Scenarios 497 12.2 Electricity load profile on a summer day and impact on hours and volume of annual curtailment in the absence of integration measures in the United States in the 450 Scenario, 2040 500 12.3 Share of heat production by technology in Nordic district heating networks in the 450 Scenario, 2014 and 2040 504 12.4 Installed capacity by technology as a share of average power demand for selected regions in the 450 Scenario, 2040 507 12.5 Storage technology characteristics and global installed capacity in 2015 509 12.6 Installed capacity of energy storage systems in selected regions in the 450 Scenario 510 12.7 Comparison between the LCOEs of 50 MW CSP and PV plants with battery storage facilities, 2016 and 2040 512 12.8 Illustrative demand-side integration measures 513 12.9 Technical potential of demand-side response by region in the 450 Scenario 517 12.10 Illustrative load curves by sector for a weekday in February in the European Union compared with the observed load curve by ENTSO-E, 2014 519 12.11 Hourly capacity factor of wind power in selected regions, 2014 520 12.12 Extent of aggregation of electricity demand profiles and behavioural patterns on load curves in Spain and Sweden 521 12.13 Total global power generation and T&D investment in the 450 Scenario, 2016-2040 522 12.14 Electricity trade in Northern Europe, 2015 and 2030 523 12.15 Share of load that can be shifted for typical days in two seasonal periods in the United States in the 450 Scenario, 2040 528 12.16 Implications for fuel and investment costs, and CO 2 emissions from curtailing variable renewables generation without storage and DSR measures in the United States in the 450 Scenario, 2040 529 Table of Contents 20-VIII
12.17 Change in curtailment levels with the use of DSR measures and storage in the United States in the 450 Scenario, 2040 530 12.18 Share of load that can be shifted for typical days in two seasonal periods in the European Union in the 450 Scenario, 2040 533 12.19 Implications for fuel and investment costs, and CO 2 emissions from curtailing variable renewables generation without storage and DSR measures in the European Union in the 450 Scenario, 2040 534 12.20 Change in curtailment levels with the use of DSR measures and storage in the European Union in the 450 Scenario, 2040 535 12.21 Share of load that can be shifted for typical days in two seasonal periods in India in the 450 Scenario, 2040 537 12.22 Implications for fuel and investment costs, and CO 2 emissions from curtailing variable renewables generation without storage and DSR measures in India in the 450 Scenario, 2040 539 12.23 Change in curtailment levels with the use of DSR measures and storage in India in the 450 Scenario, 2040 540 List of tables Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS Tables for Chapter 1: Introduction and scope 1.1 CO 2 price assumptions in selected regions by scenario 39 1.2 Real GDP growth assumptions by region 42 1.3 Population assumptions by region 44 1.4 Fossil-fuel import prices by scenario 45 Tables for Chapter 2: Overview 2.1 World primary energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario 61 2.2 World primary energy demand by fuel and scenario 64 2.3 World primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario 65 2.4 Cumulative global energy supply investment by type and scenario, 2016-2040 82 2.5 Population without access to modern energy services in the New Policies Scenario 92 2.6 Recent fossil-fuel subsidy reforms in selected countries 98 Tables for Chapter 3: Oil market outlook 3.1 Oil and total liquids demand by scenario 111 3.2 Oil demand by region in the New Policies Scenario 115 3.3 World oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario 117 3.4 Electric vehicle deployment targets and policy initiatives by country 123 3.5 Remaining technically recoverable oil resources by type and region, end-2015 128 3.6 Non-OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario 136 3.7 OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario 138 3.8 World liquids demand in the New Policies Scenario 141 20-IX World Energy Outlook 2016
3.9 Refining capacity and runs by region in the New Policies Scenario 142 3.10 Cumulative oil and gas supply investment by region in the New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 144 3.11 World oil supply by type in the New Policies Scenario 151 Tables for Chapter 4: Natural gas market outlook 4.1 Natural gas demand by region in New Policies Scenario 169 4.2 Remaining technically recoverable natural gas resources by type and region, end-2015 176 4.3 Natural gas production by region in the New Policies Scenario 181 4.4 Natural gas trade by region in the New Policies Scenario 196 Tables for Chapter 5: Coal market outlook 5.1 World coal demand, production and trade by scenario 207 5.2 Coal demand by region in the New Policies Scenario 211 5.3 Remaining recoverable coal resources, end-2014 215 5.4 Coal production by region in the New Policies Scenario 216 5.5 Coal trade by region in the New Policies Scenario 218 5.6 Cumulative coal supply investment by region in the New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 223 Tables for Chapter 6: Power sector outlook 6.1 Electricity demand by region and scenario 246 6.2 World electricity generation by source and scenario 249 6.3 Cumulative power plant capacity retirements by region and source in the New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 260 6.4 Cumulative gross power plant capacity additions by region and source in the New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 261 6.5 Cumulative investment in the power sector by region and type in the New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 264 Tables for Chapter 7: Energy efficiency outlook 7.1 Selected energy efficiency policies announced or introduced in 2015 to mid-2016 288 Tables for Chapter 8: Energy and climate change 8.1 Greenhouse-gas emissions reduction goals in selected NDCs 317 8.2 Emissions and policy trends in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario 321 8.3 Key elements in a well below 2 C pathway, 2040 342 Tables for Chapter 9: Water-energy nexus 9.1 Energy-related water withdrawals and consumption, 2014 353 9.2 Energy-related water withdrawals and consumption in the New Policies Scenario 361 Table of Contents 20-X
Part B: SPECIAL FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY Tables for Chapter 10: Renewable energy outlook 10.1 World renewables consumption by scenario 412 10.2 Renewable heat options in industry and buildings 422 Tables for Chapter 12: Integration of variable renewables in power systems 12.1 Overview of differences between wind power and solar PV 498 12.2 Market and technology enablers of demand-side response 515 List of boxes Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS Boxes for Chapter 1: Introduction and scope 1.1 Key provisions of the Paris climate change agreement 36 1.2 Impact of exchange rate fluctuations 43 1.3 Are we in a Low Oil Price Scenario? 46 Boxes for Chapter 2: Overview 2.1 China s economic transition gathers pace 62 2.2 Are electric vehicles about to make their move? 68 2.3 Exploring the implications of a well below 2 C or a 1.5 C emissions pathway 75 2.4 Solutions to air pollution are well known, but in the New Policies Scenario the problem remains far from solved 79 2.5 Could oil investment fall short even in a 450 Scenario? 83 2.6 Looking back at looking ahead: how did previous Outlooks see the access situation today? 96 2.7 Are energy price reforms in the Middle East here to stay? 101 2.8 Assessing the value of change: No Reform Case 104 Boxes for Chapter 3: Oil market outlook 3.1 Producer strategies and the oil outlook 113 3.2 Beyond EEDI: how to contain oil demand and emissions growth in international shipping 120 3.3 Putting a value on the shift in oil demand trajectory 157 Boxes for Chapter 4: Natural gas market outlook 4.1 Fugitive methane emissions: a rising concern 165 4.2 Shale well productivity gains: endless rise or diminishing returns? 179 4.3 How floating storage and regasification unlocks new markets 198 Boxes for Chapter 5: Coal market outlook 5.1 The role of CCS in the 450 Scenario 208 5.2 The impact of exchange rates on coal prices 221 5.3 China s coal plant conundrum 226 5.4 Coal use and air quality 234 20-XI World Energy Outlook 2016
Boxes for Chapter 7: Energy efficiency outlook 7.1 Quantifying electricity consumption in motor systems 300 Boxes for Chapter 8: Energy and climate change 8.1 Raising ambitions towards 2030 an achievable set of policy goals towards the global stocktake of mitigation efforts 326 8.2 Overshooting temperature thresholds 335 Boxes for Chapter 9: Water-energy nexus 9.1 Glossary of energy and water terms 350 9.2 Quantifying the energy needs of the water sector 369 9.3 Energy neutrality: an end to wasting energy on wastewater 383 9.4 Is concentrating solar power the solution for the water sector in the Middle East and North Africa? 391 Part B: SPECIAL FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY Boxes for Chapter 10: Renewable energy outlook 10.1 Renewable energy resources and technologies 399 10.2 Bioenergy must be sustainable 401 10.3 Geothermal and solar heat use in the food and beverages sector 434 Boxes for Chapter 11: Competitiveness of renewable energy 11.1 Key concepts in evaluating renewable energy 444 11.2 Power plant cost terminology 448 11.3 Auction bid prices versus LCOEs in the World Energy Outlook 452 11.4 Solar PV versus solar thermal how is a roof best used? 481 Boxes for Chapter 12: Integration of variable renewables in power systems 12.1 Characteristics of wind and solar PV 498 12.2 WEM hourly model: digging beyond the annual data 501 12.3 District heating networks offer flexibility for VRE integration 503 12.4 Thermal energy storage increases the value of CSP 511 12.5 Assessing the potential of demand-side integration 518 12.6 Transmission expands the potential of variable renewables in Northern Europe 523 List of spotlights Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS How does water fit into the energy mix? 90 Will upstream capital costs bounce back? 129 Could cutthroat competition prolong the coal industry crisis? 220 Part B: SPECIAL FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY Bringing power to the people through distributed renewables 419 Policies to support a more rapid shift to renewables the Nordic case 437 Table of Contents 20-XII