Northeastern University Dukakis Center for Urban & Regional Policy A Win/Win Strategy: Fixing Transportation and Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Massachusetts E2/T4MA/NRDC EcoSalon Full Speed Ahead: Bringing Massachusetts' Transportation System into the 21st Century February 12, 2013 Presentation by Stephanie Pollack Northeastern University School of Public Policy & Urban Affairs www.northeastern.edu/dukakiscenter A Think and Do Tank
Transportation and GHG Emissions in Massachusetts: A Primer Transportation matters to GHG reduction in Massachusetts Reducing transportation sector GHG emissions in Massachusetts Massachusetts Department of Transportation (MassDOT) initiatives MassDOT s need for more revenue to invest in transportation in order to achieve climate (and other) goals
Transportation matters to GHG reduction in Massachusetts
Transportation is part of everyone s carbon footprint
Transportation sector greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Massachusetts Transportation is responsible for 36 percent of Massachusetts s greenhouse gas emissions, the largest, fastest growing share by sector, and perhaps the hardest to tackle. MassINC Rising to the Challenge report (April 2012) Source: GWSA Business as Usual Projections
Million Metric Ton of Carbon Dioxide Equivalents (MMTCO2E) Projected ( Business As Usual ) GHG emissions by sector 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 10.0 5.0 0.0 Residential CO2 Commercial CO2 Industrial CO2 Transportation CO2 Electricity Consumption GHGs Source: GWSA 1990 Baseline and Business as Usual Projections
Million Metric Ton of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (MMTCO2E) Changes in Massachusetts GHG Emissions Inventory, 1990-2010 6.0 4.0 3.7 2.0 0.0-2.0-1.2-1.6-2.1-4.0-6.0-8.0 Residential CO2 Commercial CO2 Industrial CO2 Transportation CO2 Electricity Consumption GHGs -6.9 Source: Massachusetts GHG Emissions Inventory 1990-2010
Reducing transportation sector GHG in Massachusetts
Reducing transportation GHG: The four-legged stool Improving vehicle fuel efficiency Shifting to less carbon intensive fuels Improving the operational efficiency of cars and transport systems Changing travel behavior and development patterns in order to reduce VMT
Reducing transportation GHG: Technology isn t enough
Proven strategies for reducing VMT (and transportation GHG) 1. Improve walkability and bikability to encourage walking and biking, the carbon-free transportation modes 2. Reduce vehicle ownership by supporting car light lifestyle options (including car sharing) 3. Increase transit service and ridership because transit reduces transportation carbon emissions through multiple pathways
Walking: Residents of walkable neighborhoods drive less Source: Dukakis Center analysis of data in transit station area database
Massachusetts residents walk more than commute data alone indicates All Trip Modes Commute Trip Modes Bike, 1.1% Car Passenger, 19% Other, 3.9% Public Transit, 7.7% Walk, 19.0% Other, 2.4% Bike, 1.7% Public Transit, 12.6% Work from home, 6.5% Walk, 4.8% Car Driver, 49.6% Car Passenger, 3.8% Car Driver, 68.1% Source: Massachusetts Travel Survey Final Report (MassDOT), p. 77
Reduced vehicle ownership: Car light households travel more sustainably 70.0% 60.0% 63.7% 50.0% 49.6% 48.6% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 22.2% 19.1% 26.7% 16.9% 10.0% 0.0% 11.0% 11.0% 7.6% 6.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.5% 2.1% 3.0% 1.6% 1.1% Car driver Car passenger Transit Walk Bike Other Zero Vehicles Vehicles < Workers Vehicles Workers Source: Chu, X. (2012). An Assessment of Public Transportation Markets Using NHTS Data. National Center for Transit Research at CUTR. (p. 35)
Car sharing: A proven way to reduce vehicle ownership and GHG Although 60% of all households joining car sharing are carless, car sharing reduces vehicle ownership Households own an average of 0.47 vehicles per household before joining car sharing but 0.24 vehicles per household after joining Car sharing members shed 4-6 vehicles for each car sharing vehicle, a figure that increases to 9-13 vehicles per car sharing vehicle when accounting for vehicles never purchased Vehicle miles travelled per household declined by 27% annually SOURCE: Published research by Elliot W. Martin and Susan S. Shaheen of the Transportation Sustainability Research Center at UC Berkeley
Massachusetts is a car light state One in eight households in Massachusetts is a zero vehicle household
The most recent trend: Fewer drivers
The role of transit in reducing GHG Source: American Public Transportation Association
Pounds CO2 Per Passenger Mile MBTA transit is a lower carbon transportation mode than driving 1.2 US Average 1 0.96 MBTA Full Seats 0.8 0.73 0.64 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.18 0.23 0.34 0.11 0.36 0.27 0.14 0.36 0.33 0.1 0 SOV Trip Bus Transit Heavy Rail Light Rail Commuter Rail Source: Hodges, T. (2010). Public Transportation's Role in Responding to Climate Change (based on 2008 data on transit loads and electric grid emissions profile)
Transit GHG Reduction Pathway 1: Mode shift
Transit GHG Reduction Pathway 2: Congestion Relief Drivers in metropolitan Boston are estimated to experience 137 million person-hours of annual delay due to traffic congestion This would increase by 38 million person-hours of annual delay (or 27%) if there were no public transportation in the region Source: Texas Transportation Institute Urban Mobility Report 2012.
Transit GHG Reduction Pathway 3: Land use impacts Boston- Cambridge- Quincy MSA MBTA Transit Shed Population 4,552,402 981,225 (22%) Households 1,344,257 402,801 (30%) Residential Density (households/acre) 0.6 5.2 Source: Dukakis Center analysis of data in transit station area database
Transit GHG Reduction Pathway 3: Land use impacts Boston- Cambridge- Quincy MSA MBTA Transit Shed Workers 16 years and over 2,277,958 484,736 (21%) Percent who take public transportation 12% 27% Percent who take public transportation, bicycle, or walk 18% 42% Percent of households with 0 vehicles available 13% 28% Source: Dukakis Center analysis of data in transit station area database
So can Massachusetts reduce transportation sector GHG?
Can we reduce VMT in Massachusetts? Yes we already are!
There are low VMT communities throughout Massachusetts
Million Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (MMTCO2E) Annual Vehicle Miles of Travel Per Capita Actual transportation sector GHG vs. projections, compared to VMT 37.0 8700 36.0 8600 35.0 34.0 8500 8400 33.0 32.0 8300 31.0 8200 30.0 8100 29.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 8000 Projected MA Transportation CO2 Emissions MA Transportation CO2 Emissions MA Per Capita VMT Source: GHG Inventory, GWSA Business as Usual projections, FHWA VMT data
Million Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (MMTCO2E) Transportation sector GHG emissions and VMT in Massachusetts Annual Vehicle Miles of Travel Per Capita 34.5 8700 34.0 8600 33.5 33.0 8500 32.5 8400 32.0 8300 31.5 31.0 30.5 8200 8100 30.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 8000 MA Transportation CO2 Emissions MA Per Capita VMT Source: Massachusetts 1990-2010 GHG inventory and FHWA Highway Statistics Series 2000-2010
Massachusetts Department of Transportation (MassDOT) initiatives
Transportation sector GHG reductions goals 7.3% below 1990 levels by 2020 12.3% below 1990 levels by 2050 Three primary objectives of GreenDOT Reduce transportation sector GHG emissions Promote healthy transportation options of walking, bicycling and public transportation Support smart growth development
Mode Shift: Tripling the distance traveled through bicycling, transit and walking Personal Miles Travelled (PMT) Year Bicycling Transit Walking Total 2010 (baseline) 150.4 mil. 1,830.0 mil. 101.1 mil. 2,080 mil. 2020 (benchmark) 330.0 mil. 3,990.0 mil. 223.9 mil. 4,550 mil. 2030 (goal year) 516.0 mil. 5,930.0 mil. 333.6 mil. 6,780 mil. Source: MassDOT Dukakis Center For Urban and Regional Policy / www.northeastern.edu/dukakiscenter
MassDOT s need for more revenue to invest in transportation in order to achieve climate (and other) goals
A 21 st Century Transportation Plan for Massachusetts: The Way Forward Really two plans in one A plan to address operating needs A plan to address capital needs $13 billion, 10 year capital plan addresses Maintenance and modernization Capacity needs Strategic expansion
The Operations Plan FY2014 10 Year Total MassDOT Operating Deficit $371 mil. $4.4 bil. Regional Transit Authorities Operating Funding $100 mil. $1.1 bil. MBTA Operating Funding $166 mil. $3.2 bil. Total for operations $637 mil. $8.7 bil. Source: Dukakis Center analysis of The Way Forward
Regional Transit Authorities need to invest in service to increase ridership Source: Dukakis Center analysis of RTA data from MassDOT Beyond Boston study
Operating Needs: MBTA Structural Operating Deficit -50 MBTA Projected Operating Deficits (in $ millions) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 0-100 -150-140 -145-200 -250-300 -172-227 -254-263 -350 Operating Deficit (assumes no fare changes) -320-369 -400-450 Operating Deficit (5% fare increase every two years beg'g FY15) Source: Dukakis Center analysis of MassDOT/MBTA data -426
The Way Forward: Proposed revenue allocation MBTA Operations (including debt relief) $3,121 (27%) Allocation of Proposed Spending, FY14-23 (in $ millions) Debt Service for Maintenance/ Modernization Projects $2,265 (20%) Debt Service for MBTA expansion projects $661 (6%) RTA Contract Assistance $1,139 (10%) MassDOT Operations $4,400 (37%) Source: Dukakis Center analysis of The Way Forward
The Way Forward: Proposed 10 year capital investment of $13 billion Proposed 21st Century Transportation Investment of $13 Billion Over Ten Years (in $ millions) Major Transit and Rail Investments, $2,971 MBTA Capacity (South Station), $850 These investments represent 23% of proposed spending Maintenance/Repairs to Roads & Bridges, $3,755 Registry of Motor Vehicles, $150 Aeronautics, $125 MBTA Modernization Pilot Projects, $200 MBTA Power & Facilities, $300 MBTA Trains & Buses, $2,982 Regional Transit Authority Vehicles, $400 Funding for Local Roads (Ch. 90), $1,000 Bicycle & Pedestrian Facilities, $430 Source: Dukakis Center analysis of The Way Forward
Transit needs roads and bridges, too: 1 in 3 transit trips in MA are on buses MBTA Commuter Rail, 35,866, 9% MBTA Bus, 111,812, 28% MBTA Subway, 221,294, 55% MBTA RIDE, 2,219, 1% RTA Fixed Route, 26,168, 7% RTA Demand Response, 2,145, 0% Source: MBTA and Beyond Boston RTA ridership data for 2010
One final thought: Revenue sources can also affect transportation GHG Gasoline taxes 21 cents/gallon gas tax has not been increased since 1991 Increase of 14.4 cents/gallon (to account for inflation since 1991) would, according to CTPS modeling Increase transit ridership 0.2% Reduce Vehicle Miles Travelled 0.1% The Massachusetts Clean Energy and Climate Plan for 2020 includes a Clean Car Consumer Incentives program to get consumers to shift vehicle purchases to more fuel efficient models Could vary new cars sales taxes, annual auto excise and/or Registry fees Even a revenue neutral version could cut 1990 baseline GHG emissions 0.5% by 2020