The Next 1 Years of Global Energy: Part I Energy Security and Energy Poverty* Scott W. Tinker 1 Search and Discovery Article #7268 (217)** Posted June 28, 217 *Adapted from oral presentation given at Forum, The Next 1 Years of Global Energy Use: Resources, Impacts and Economics, at AAPG Annual Convention and Exhibition, Houston, Texas, April 4, 217 **Datapages 217. Serial rights given by author. For all other rights contact author directly. 1 Director, Bureau of Economic Geology, The University of Texas at Austin (scott.tinker@beg.utexas.edu) Preface Forum Topics Energy Security and Energy Poverty Scott W. Tinker Global Population, Energy Demand and Future Technology E. Koonin Global Petroleum Resources and Transportation Fuel Options Cindy Yeilding Global Power Fuel Mix and Carbon Transition Mark Snell Energy Density, Fake and True News about Energy and Environment Jesse Ausubel The Grand Energy Challenge: Energy Diversity and Economic Realities Kenneth Medlock Energy Security Energy Poverty Energy Reality Outline Summary 1. Oil, natural gas, and coal are secure sources of energy and will remain vital well into the 21 st Century. 2. Secure energy is required to lift humanity from poverty. 3. Secure energy affordable, available, reliable, sustainable underpins economies and is required for investment in the environment.
Selected References BP, 216, Statistical Review of World Energy. Website accessed June 1, 217, http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energyeconomics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html. Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG), 217, Shale Resources, Reserves and Production Group. Website accessed June 13, 217, http://www.beg.utexas.edu/research/programs/shale. Department of Energy (DOE), 214, The Water-Energy Nexus: Challenges and Opportunities (July). Website accessed June 1, 217, https://www.energy.gov/under-secretary-science-and-energy/downloads/water-energy-nexus-challenges-and-opportunities. Energy Information Administration (U.S.) (EIA), 215, Monthly Energy Review May 215. Website accessed June 1, 217, https://www.slideshare.net/cfcc15/energy-policy-greenhouse-gas-reduction-and-climate-negotiations. EIA, 216, Lower 48 states shale plays (June ). Website accessed June 1, 217, https://www.eia.gov/maps/images/shale_gas_lower48.pdf. International Energy Agency (IEA), 215, World Energy Outlook 215. Website accessed June 1, 217, https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/215/november/world-energy-outlook-215.html. IEA, 216, World Energy Investment 216. Website accessed June 1, 217, https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/216/september/worldenergy-investment-216.html. Sweeney, J., 215, Energy Efficiency Obstacles and Opportunities: an Overview. Website accessed June 1, 217, https://www.slideshare.net/cfcc15/energy-policy-greenhouse-gas-reduction-and-climate-negotiations. Tinker, S.W., Director, 211, Switch: Discover the Future of Energy (Film for viewing and on DVD and the web). Website accessed June 1, 217, http://www.switchenergyproject.com/screenings. Tinker, S.W., 213, Energy 36: Leaving our corners for the radical middle: New Zealand sets an example: Earth (September), p. 8 9. Tinker, S.W., H. Lynch, M. Carpenter, and M. Hoover, 213, Global energy and the role of geosciences: A North American perspective, in M.E. Bickford, editor, The Impact of the Geological Sciences on Society: GSA Special Paper 51, p. 21-51.
AAPG ACE The Next 1 Years of Global Energy April, 217 Energy Security and Energy Poverty Scott W. Tinker Bureau of Economic Geology
Outline Energy Security Energy Poverty Energy Reality
U.S. Primary Energy Demand (Quads/year) Petroleum 35 Biomass 4 Natural Gas 25 Transportation 27 Residential 11 29 Commercial 8 13 Energy Services 37 Coal 2 Industrial 24 Nuclear 8 Geothermal.2 Hydro 3 Wind-Solar 1 Electricity Generation 39 25.1 Waste Water Treatment 3 The Water-Energy Nexus: Challenges and Opportunities, DOE, July, 214 QAe3712
The Next 1 Years of Energy Population, Energy Demand and Future Technology Petroleum Resources and Transportation Fuel Options Power Fuel Mix and Carbon Transition Steven E. Koonin Cindy Yeilding Mark Snell Energy Density, Fake & True News about Energy and Environment Jesse Ausubel Energy Challenge: Diversity and Economic Realities Kenneth Medlock
The Next 1 Years of Energy Population, Energy Demand and Future Technology Petroleum Resources and Transportation Fuel Options Power Fuel Mix and Carbon Transition Energy Density, Fake & True News about Energy and Environment Energy Challenge: Diversity and Economic Realities
Energy Security Affordable Cost: per unit of energy Price Volatility: stable or fluctuating Available Reliable Sustainable Infrastructure: cost to build the plant Access: substantial resources Intermittent: source consistent or variable Safe: natural/human causes Clean: air and atmospheric emissions Dense: energy per area, weight and volume Dry: fresh water use/risk
Energy Security Challenges Transportation I. Oil II. o o o o Available, affordable, reliable Land use, water, emissions Natural Gas (CNG, LPG, LNG, GTL) Available, affordable, reliable Dirtier than certain electric fuels III. Electricity IV. o o o Benefits depend on fuel source Mining, expensive, chemicals, range Biofuels Scale, land use, water, cost V. Hydrogen From Tinker et. al. 213, GSA Special Publication
Energy Security Challenges Electricity Generation I. Coal o Available, affordable, reliable o Mining, water, air emissions, CO 2 II. Natural Gas o Available, affordable, reliable o Water, methane and CO 2 III. Nuclear o o Available, affordable, reliable, sustainable Radioactive waste, safety From Tinker et. al. 213, GSA Special Publication
Energy Security Challenges Electricity Generation IV. o o Hydro Affordable Water and topography V. Geothermal VI. o o o o Reliable, sustainable Energy density Wind VII. Solar o o Affordable, sustainable Intermittent, land and visual, transmission Available, sustainable Expensive, intermittent, inefficient From Tinker et. al. 213, GSA Special Publication
Energy Security High Mod Low Solar Hydro Wind Geothermal Nuclear Natural Gas Coal Biofuels Available Affordable Reliable Sustainable Baseload Electricity Tinker informal survey of experts
Energy Security High Mod Low Solar Hydro Wind Geothermal Nuclear Natural Gas Coal Biofuels Available Affordable Reliable Sustainable No Form of Energy is Perfectly Secure Tinker informal survey of experts
Outline Energy Security Energy Poverty Energy Reality
Poverty and electricity access in selected developing countries, circles sized by total population Africa Asia Latin America * Bangladesh uses 25 PPP and $2 a day poverty line Purchasing power parity Sources: World Bank; IEA; World Energy Outlook 215 Electrification rate 213, % Electricity and Poverty 1 8 6 4 2 Brazil Electricity Vietnam China Cameroon Kenya Tanzania Uganda India Bangladesh* Nigeria Ethiopia Poverty 2 4 6 8 1 Income % (<$3.1 a day at 211 PPP, %) QAe521
Africa Asia Latin America * Bangladesh uses 25 PPP and $2 a day poverty line Purchasing power parity Sources: World Bank; IEA; World Energy Outlook 215 Electricity and Poverty Brazil China 1 Electrification rate 213, % Poverty and electricity access in selected developing countries, circles sized by total population 217 Tinker,Tinker 215 8 India Electricity Vietnam Bangladesh* 6 Cameroon Nigeria 4 Tanzania 2 Kenya Ethiopia Poverty Uganda 2 4 6 8 1 Photos%) Tinker, Ecuador, 217 Income % (<$3.1 a day at 211 PPP, QAe521
Africa Asia Latin America * Bangladesh uses 25 PPP and $2 a day poverty line Purchasing power parity Sources: World Bank; IEA; World Energy Outlook 215 Electricity and Poverty Brazil China 1 Electrification rate 213, % Poverty and electricity access in selected developing countries, circles sized by total population 217 Tinker,Tinker 215 8 India Electricity Vietnam Bangladesh* 6 Cameroon Nigeria 4 Tanzania 2 Kenya Ethiopia Poverty Uganda 2 4 6 8 1 Photos%) Lynch, Ecuador, 217 Income % (<$3.1 a day at 211 PPP, QAe521
Africa Electricity and Poverty Brazil China 1 Electrification rate 213, % Poverty and electricity access in selected developing countries, circles sized by total population 217 Tinker,Tinker 215 8 India Electricity Vietnam Bangladesh* Electricity does not end poverty. Asia Latin America 6 Cameroon Nigeria 4 Poverty cannot be ended without Tanzaniaelectricity. * Bangladesh uses 25 PPP and $2 a day poverty line Purchasing power parity Sources: World Bank; IEA; World Energy Outlook 215 2 Kenya Ethiopia Poverty Uganda 2 4 6 8 1 Photos%) Lynch, Ecuador, 217 Income % (<$3.1 a day at 211 PPP, QAe521
Limited Access to Electricity Restricts Standard of Living ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH PER CAPITA 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 United States Australia Japan Korea, Rep. China Germany India Malaysia Mexico Ecuador 1 2 3 4 5 6 GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ Source: World Bank Databank 199 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 11 12 13
Limited Access to Electricity Restricts Standard of Living ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH PER CAPITA 16 14 12 1 8 Australia United States Energy consumption per capita plateaued Increasing GDP per capita: Complete and pervasive grid access Japan Energy efficiency Korea, Rep. Increasing electrification: New technology 6 Improving grid access Access to broad range of resources China Germany 4 Utilizing available energy options India Malaysia 2 New technology Mexico Ecuador Higher electrification accompanied by increasing GDP per capita 1 2 3 4 5 6 GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ Source: World Bank Databank 199 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 11 12 13
Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH PER CAPITA 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 United States Australia Japan Korea, Rep. China Germany India Niger Malaysia ~1.2 billion people Haiti Ghana 1.2 billion people are being left behind Mexico Ecuador 1 2 3 4 5 6 GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ Source: World Bank Databank 199 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 11 12 13
Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH PER CAPITA 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 China India Niger ~1.2 billion people Haiti Stagnant Nations United States Economic Australia focus on basic human needs: Korea, Rep. Ghana 1.2 billion people are being left behind Energy consumption and GDP are stagnant Food Housing Clothing Education Healthcare Mexico Primary Ecuador Electricity Japan The gap between Stagnant and Developed Germany nations is Malaysia growing 1 2 3 4 5 6 GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ Source: World Bank Databank 199 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 11 12 13
Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH PER CAPITA 16 14 1 8 6 4 2 United States As we lift the world from poverty we 12 Australia create the conditions for peace. Japan Korea, Rep. Corruption slows progress China Germany and India Niger inhibits Malaysia peace. Mexico ~1.2 billion Ecuador people Haiti Ghana GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ 1 2 3 4 5 6 Source: World Bank Databank 199 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 11 12 13
Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH PER CAPITA 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 China India Niger Switch On 3 billion Haiti Korea, Rep. Ghana Australia Ecuador United States Switch Japan 4.5 billion Germany Mexico Malaysia 1 2 3 4 5 6 GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ Source: World Bank Databank 199 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 11 12 13
Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality It s Time to Power the People ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH PER CAPITA 16 United States 14 12 1 Japan 8 Korea, Rep. 4.5 billion 6 4 Germany China India Niger 1 Haiti 93 94 2 Ghana 95 96 Mexico Ecuador 3 billion 92 Malaysia Switch On 2 199 Switch Australia 3 4 5 GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ 97 98 99 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 Source: World Bank Databank 6 7 8 9 21 12 217 13 Photos Tinker, 11 Ecuador,
Outline Energy Security Energy Poverty Energy Reality
Bakken BEG Shale Resource, Reserve and Production Studies Permian Basin Barnett Fayetteville Haynesville Marcellus Eagle Ford Modified from: EIA and National Geographic
BEG Shale Resources and Reserves Team 14 12 1 Marcellus Haynesville Fayetteville Barnett U.S. Shale Gas EIA Price Scenario 14 12 1 TCF 8 6 4 8 6 4 $/MMBtu 2 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24
BEG Shale Resources and Reserves Team U.S. Shale Gas Prod. through 245 RF (P5) Formation OGIP free P1 P5 P9 Barnett 444 37 47 57 11% Fayetteville 8 12 18 23 23% Haynesville 489 33 52 72 11% Marcellus 271-183 - 9% 384 3 1%
U.S. Electric Generation Shares (25-15) Percent of total 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2% 8% 18% 51% Nuclear Renewables Other Natural gas Coal Fracking! 21% 13% 32% % of CO 2 2% 3% 34% 68% % 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Source: EIA QAe4744
CO 2 Emissions (Million metric tons) Electric Power Sector U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Other Natural gas Coal Clean Power Plan 25 ~ 24 Mmt 215 ~ 19 Mmt 23 Goal of Clean Power Plan (CPP) ~ 16 Mmt: 32% reduction from 25 Source: EIA 199 2 21 22 23 QAe4743
CO 2 Emissions (Million metric tons) Source: EIA Electric Power Sector U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Other Natural gas Coal Clean Power Plan 25 ~ 24 Mmt 215 ~ 19 Mmt 23 Goal of Clean Power Plan (CPP) ~ 16 Mmt: 32% reduction from 25 Without the CPP ~14 Mmt: 42% reduction from 25 CPP is less ambitious than current trends ~2/3 of the way there already Shale gas, renewables, coal policy 199 2 21 22 23 QAe4743
2 US Energy Mix Quadrillion Btu 18 16 14 12 1 8 Total Energy Consumed Growth.55% less than GDP 8 Quads Efficiency Imports 6 Nuclear Oil 4 Natural Gas 2 Coal 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 Wind & Solar Biofuels Hydro After Jim Sweeney, 215. Data: EIA, Monthly Energy Review
Energy U. S. Energy Demand (Quads/year) Petroleum 35 Biomass 4 Natural Gas 25 Transportation 27 Residential 11 29 Commercial 8 13 Energy Services 37 Coal 2 Nuclear 8 Geothermal.2 Hydro 3 Wind-Solar 1 Electricity Generation 39 Industrial 24 25.1 Waste Water Treatment 3 Dissipated Energy 6 The Water-Energy Nexus: Challenges and Opportunities, DOE, July, 214 QAe3712
The Global Energy Mix Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent 365 583 893 4331 Hydro Nuclear Renew Petroleum 384 86% Coal Nat Gas 3135 Global Population Each color on the map represents ~ 1 billion people Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)
Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent Hydro Nuclear Coal 151 83 216 429 Renew Nat Gas 881 Petroleum 136 37 5 The Global Energy Mix 24 153 157 323 97 2 27 4 122 264 183 194 143 468 441 93 862 11 1 6 426 362 111 95 2798 151 631 Global Population Each color on the map represents ~ 1 billion people Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)
The Global Energy Mix Scaled to Consumption Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent 264 151 83 216 468 136 429 881 2 27 4 97 183 194 143 862 93 1 6 11 426 441 362 111 95 151 Hydro Nuclear Coal Renew Petroleum 37 5 153 24 157 323 122 2798 631 Nat Gas Global Population Each color on the map represents ~ 1 billion people Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)
Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Global Energy Mix Global Energy Consumption (MTOE) 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)
4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, CO 2 Emissions CO 2 Emissions (Million Tonnes) 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia Total Asia Pacific Total Africa Total S. & Cent. America Total Middle East Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)
Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 Global Energy Mix Renewable Consumption (MTOE) 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Hydro Solar Wind Biomass Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)
1,4 6 35 1,2 4 2 3 1, Global Energy Mix Installed Wind Capacity (MW) Renewable Consumption (MTOE) Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent 25 8 1995 2 25 21 215 2 6 Total Asia Pacific Total Africa 15 Total Middle East Total S. & Cent. America 4 1 Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia 2 5 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Hydro Solar Wind Biomass Solar Wind Biomass Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)
5 1,4 4 35 1,2 3 3 1, 2 Renewable Consumption (MTOE) 25 8 2 6 1995 2 25 21 215 15 4 Total Asia Pacific Total Africa 1 Total Middle East Total S. & Cent. America 2 5 Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Hydro Solar Wind Biomass Solar Wind Biomass 1 Global Energy Mix Installed Wind Capacity (MW) Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)
Global Energy Mix Renewable Global Energy Consumption (MTOE) Mix Installed Installed Photovoltaic Wind Global Capacity Capacity Energy (MW) Consumption (MW) (MTOE) 1% 5 14, 25, 1,4 9% 4 35 1,2 8% 12, 2, 3 3 38% 7% 1, 1, 15, 2 33% 6% 1 25 8 1, 8, 5% 2 16% 6, 6 1995 2 25 21 215 24% 4% 5, 15 3% 4 Total Asia Pacific Total Africa 4, 1 Total Middle East Total S. & Cent. America 2% 2, 2 5 41% 1996 21 26 211 Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia 1% 29% China Japan Total North America Total Europe Total Others % 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 1965 1965 197 197 1975 1975 198 198 1985 1985 199 199 1995 1995 2 2 2 25 25 25 21 21 21 215 215 215 Hydro Solar Wind Biomass Oil Natural Gas Coal SolarNuclear Wind Hydro BiomassSolar Wind Biomass Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)
2 Total Energy Supply Global Investment 215 USD $ Billion 8% USD (215) billion 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 23 26 29 212 215 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % T&D networks Nuclear Renewables Fossil fuel power generation Oil, gas, coal (supply) Right Axis: Oil, gas, coal in total investment (%) Source: IEA World Energy Investment, 216 QAe5158
2 Total Energy Supply Global Investment 215 USD $ Billion 8% USD (215) billion 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Oil Price Brent ($/barrel) 2 23 26 29 212 215 7% 6% 14 5% 12 4% 1 8 3% 6 2% 4 1% 2 % T&D networks Nuclear Renewables Fossil fuel power generation Oil, gas, coal (supply) Right Axis: Oil, gas, coal in total investment (%) Source: IEA World Energy Investment, 216 QAe5158
Climate Change Environment Economy Jobs Energy Electricity Source: Tinker, EARTH, 213
Academia/NGO Government Radical Middle Energy Source: Tinker, EARTH, 213
Tinker s Top Take Away s 1. Oil, natural gas and coal are secure sources of energy, and will remain vital well into the 21 st Century. 2. Secure energy is required to lift humanity from poverty. 3. Secure energy affordable, available, reliable, sustainable underpins economies and is required for investment in the environment.
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