Solar energy for electricity production: Photovoltaics (PV)

Solar energy for electricity production: Photovoltaics (PV) Chiara Candelise Doctoral researcher Imperial Centre for Energy Policy and Technology (ICEPT) Page 1

Energy from the Sun HEAT (Solar thermal heating) ELECTRICITY (Photovoltaics - PV) 2

Presentation outline Uses of PV PV technology and system (gridconnected) Costs Global PV market UK scene Information 3

Photovoltaics (PV) uses 4

How and where photovoltaics (PV) can be used? Off-grid PV Domestic Non-domestic Grid-connected PV Distributed Centralised Consumer product 5

The PV technology 6

Photovoltaic effect 7

Crystalline Silicon (c-si) Technology (1 st generation conventional technology) Mono and polycrystalline silicon based solar cells dominate the market (about 94% of the market in 2005) Compared to other technologies currently commercialised: Higher efficiency (12-15%, a best of 18%) Higher costs Low performance degradation (guaranteed 10% every 10 years) 8

c-si: PV value chain 95% silicon 60-70% wafer 60-70% cells 70-80% module 9 Cost shares along the value chain

c-si: technology improvements toward costs reduction Main routes for cost reduction are: Increase efficiency Reduction of input material used Solar grade silicon Different silicon wafer manufacturing process (e.g. Ribbon growth) Thinner wafer However, there are limits on: Ma efficiency possible for silicon semiconductor (about 30%) Min thickness of wafer Other cost reduction factors: Economy of scale Production process automation Product standardization 10

11 2 nd Generation Technologies: Thin Film Thin film (about 6% mkt share, 2005): amorphous silicon (a-si) Copper Indium Gallium- Diselenide (CIS/CIGS) Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) Lower efficiencies, but lower costs (less material is used) Can be deposited on fleible substrate -> more versatile and....suitable of BIPV (Building Integrated PV) TF has the potential to cut the costs between 30-60%. Key factors are: Improved efficiency (approaching 15%, some aiming to 25%) Economy of scale Large scale continuous roll-to roll production process

3 rd Generation Technologies and new concepts High efficiency (III-V compounds) and concentrating PV (cell efficiency up to 40% - laboratory) New concepts (e.g. Dye sensitized solar cells (efficiency 3-10%), Organic cells) 12

The PV system (grid-connected) 13

Grid- Connected PV system. Main components and Balance of System (BOS) 14

Applications 1. Domestic and commercial 2. Building Integrated PV (BIPV) - Façade (PV curtain wall, sun shade devise) - Roof integrated 3. Large, grid-connected power plants 15

Costs 16

PV electricity cost comparison with other sources and break-even 17

Potential for cost reduction 18 Source: EU commission, 2005

The PV global market 19

Market SUPPLY: Production growth, 1999-2005 (MWp) 20

Market SUPPLY: Production growth by countries,1995-2006 (MWp) 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Japan USA Eur ope RoW TOTAL 21

Market SUPPLY: production in 2005 by countries 22

Top ten worldwide manufacturers (2004-2006) Top 10 worldwide manufacturers of PV cells (in MWp) Companies Rank Production Growth in % 2004-2006 2006 2006 2004 2004 2005 2006 Sharp 1 1 324 428 434.7 34% Q-Cells 2 4 75 160 253.1 237% Kyocera 3 2 105 142 180 71% Suntech 4 10 35 82 160 357% Sanyo 5 7 65 125 155 138% Mitsubishi 6 4 75 100 111 48% Motech 7 10 35 60 102 191% Schott Solar 8 8 63 95 96 52% SolarWorld 9 - - 37.5 90 - BP Solar 10 3 85 85.8 85.64 1% Shell Solar - 6 72 59 3-96% Source: PV News, March 2006; Photon International, 3/07 23

Top ten worldwide manufacturers (2004-2006) Top 10 worldwide manufacturers of PV cells (in MWp) Companies Rank Production Growth in % 2004-2006 2006 2006 2004 2004 2005 2006 Sharp 1 1 324 428 434.7 34% Q-Cells 2 4 75 160 253.1 237% Kyocera 3 2 105 142 180 71% Suntech 4 10 35 82 160 357% Sanyo 5 7 65 125 155 138% Mitsubishi 6 4 75 100 111 48% Motech 7 10 35 60 102 191% Schott Solar 8 8 63 95 96 52% SolarWorld 9 - - 37.5 90 - BP Solar 10 3 85 85.8 85.64 1% Shell Solar - 6 72 59 3-96% Source: PV News, March 2006; Photon International, 3/07 24

Market SUPPLY main points Very high growth in production Leading countries: Japan, USA, Germany and, more recently, China Germany is eperiencing high growth Thin film market share is due to increase consistently (estimates of 20% in net decade) 25

Market DEMAND: Installed capacity In s ta lle d C a p a c ity [M W p ] 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 In s t a lle d C a p a c ity [ M W p ] 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Year UK US JP DE UK 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Cumulative installed capacity in IEA PVPS reporting countries Year 26

Market DEMAND: Installed capacity in Germany Germany has become the fastest growing market, followed by Japan and USA 100,000 Rooftops Solar Electricity Programme 1999-2003 Renewable Energy Act (EEG) Feed in Tariffs in 2000 (amended in 2004, ~ 0.54/kWh over 20 years 5% annual decrease) 27

PV Policy instruments Policy Instruments Subsidies Fiscal mechanisms Ta credit, VAT reductions Country Capital subsidies Feed-in tariffs Certificates / Obligations Fiscal mechanisms Output subsidies Input subsidies Austria Belgium Denmark Investment support schemes Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Regulating price (feed-in tariffs) Regulating quantity (quota models, obligations) Italy Luemburg Netherlands Portugal 28 Spain Imperial College London - IFEG Sweden seminar, UK

The UK 29

Solar irradiation: UK versus Germany 30

UK: PV government programmes UK s Budget 2000: 12.5% VAT reduction 2000 DTI domestic field trial ( 1.4m+ 4m) 2001-2003 DTI large scale Building Integrated PV ( 4m) 2002-2003 UK Major Demonstration Programme ( 25m) 2003-2005 Low Carbon Building Programme (8 technologies) 2006-2008 Phase I: Household stream ( 18m, increased from initial 6.5m) 50% grant (up to ma 2,500) Phase II: Public sector buildings, housing association properties and schools ( 50m) Up to 1m grant 31 Very high demand!!! Phase I has been suspended (March 2007) and reshaped (May 2007)

UK PV scene Companies Manufacturer Crystalo, world leading supplier multi-crystalline silicon ingots and manufacturing equipments Sharp, solar module division, 20mw in 2004, 110MW in 2006 (set to increase to 220MW in2007) Romag, glass-glass laminate ICP Solar, a-si thin film, 3.5MW Others (e.g. Whitfield solar, universities spin-offs) Installers (world leading in BIPV) Solar Century IT Power Halcrow Installed capacity ~10MW, 2005 Research World leading university group (thanks to strong material science base) but fragmented: lack of aggressive government support (both supply push and 32 demand pull) and central laboratory infrastructure

The average PV system in UK (per 1KWp) Cost = 4,000-9,000 Annual yield = 800-900 KWh Lifetime CO2 savings = 8,600 9,675 tonneco2 (344-387kg per year) Solar fraction (contribution to building load) = 40% Energy payback = 2-3 years (around 1 year for TF) 33

34 INFORMATION / EDUCATION on PV Main information sources: from countries which eperienced high PV market epansion (mainly Germany, USA) NEED of better information and education in UK Misconceptions (e.g. not enough sun) Low awareness (e.g. people often do not know about PV or confuse it with other microgeneration technologies) Lack of available and detailed information on what potential investor can get from PV (e.g. need more detailed costs data. But also to go beyond cost and better address potential benefits)

Thank you http://inthegreen.typepad.com/ 35