SUNRISE FROM THE WEST: THE GROWTH OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IN CALIFORNIA David Hochschild California Energy Commission 1
Hope & the Era of Climate Change 2
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The 2020 Goal: 33% Renewables & 12 GW of Clean Distributed Generation & 1 million Electric Vehicles The Challenge is Big... 5
But Big Challenges Are What We Do 1972: Rand Corporation report: CA energy demand growing 8% per year, predicts 40 new nuclear power plants may be needed 1974: Jerry Brown elected Governor. California Energy Commission created to help CA lead on energy efficiency and renewables 1975: CA initiates first efficiency standards for buildings and appliances 6
California Advancing Energy Efficiency
2009: The Energy Commission s TV efficiency standards take effect, saving Californians $1 billion/year 2012: The plug-in charger efficiency standard begins, saves Californians $300 M/year 9
Building Standards (Title 24) = 14,000Gwh/year Total Savings 10
Default risks are 32% lower in energy efficient homes - Home Energy Efficiency and Mortgage Risks Research Report (March 2013, Institute for Market Transformation) 11
Governor Brown Increases CA RPS. 33% is a floor not a ceiling 2013 2020
The World s Largest Solar Thermal Power Plant (Tower) Ivanpah Solar Thermal Project 393 MW San Bernardino County, CA 13
The World s Largest Thin Film Solar PV Project Desert Sunlight Solar Project 550 MW Riverside County, CA 14
The World s Largest Wind Project Alta Wind Energy Center 1550 MW Kern County, CA 15
The World s Largest Silicon PV Project Solar Star Project 579 MW Kern County, CA 16
The World s Largest Geothermal Power Plant Geysers Geothermal Power Plant 955 MW Lake County, CA 17
The World s Largest Solar Thermal Power Plant (Trough) Solar Energy Generating System (SEGS) 310 MW San Bernadino County, CA 18
The World s Largest Iron-Chromium Flow Battery EnerVault Iron-Chromium Technology 1 MW-hr capacity at 250 kw (4 hour duration) Turlock, CA 19
Largest Manufacturing Plant in CA is Now Electric Vehicles Over 6000 workers now at Tesla Tesla Factory Fremont, CA MORE THAN 100,000 EV s AND PLUG-IN VEHICLES IN CALIFORNIA TODAY 20
CA Leads in New Solar Home Construction Over 13,000 New Solar Homes Installed in CA. 12,000 more under way. Zero Energy Community Rocklin, CA ZERO ENERGY HOMES TO BE STANDARD IN 2020 21
70,000 60,000 65,000 Electric Vehicle Sales (2014 January July) 50,000 40,000 30,000 26,000 24,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 9,600 6,400 4,200 0 U.S. California China Japan Norway France Germany 22 Source: EV Obsession (http://evobsession.com/), 2014 Alan Baum, Baum & Associates, 2014
Innovation in Electric Vehicles: 30 mile range, recharges in 10 minutes Proterra Battery Electric Bus 23
Lithium Ion Battery Cell Cost Forecast: 70% Reduction by 2020 Source: Roland Berger, Samsung 24
Solar Expected to be half of all Renewable Energy in California by 2020 Source: CPUC RPS Report
May 6, 1954:Roger Bannister Breaks the 4 Minute Mile The record was broken again 46 days later 26
Price (2010 $/W) Solar Panel Prices Have Dropped 98% Since 1980 60.00 6.00 1979 $33.69 / W Silicon Shortage 2013 $0.65/W 0.60 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Cumulative Production (MW) Every Time Demand for Solar Doubles, Prices Go Down about 20% 27
Billions of Cell Phones Contracts In 1980, AT&T s global market study predicted there would 900,000 cell phone subscribers in the year 2000 7 6 5 4 3 6.8 In fact in 2000 there were 109 million Now, there are 6.8 billion 2 1 0 2000 Predicted 2000 2014 Source: Rolliing Stone, July 2014 28
Global PV Market 60 52 GW Global Solar Market to Grow to 52 GW in 2014 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 GW 2004 2014 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 29
2013: Lancaster, CA becomes the first city in the US to mandate solar on Rex Parris Mayor of Lancaster all new construction 30
US State Solar Market Share Source: SPV Research 31
160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 More Jobs in US Solar Industry than US Auto Manufacturing 0 Coal Mining US Iron and Steel Mill Industry US Auto Manufacturing US Solar Industry 32 Source: Solar Foundation and US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Auto Manufacturing # s do not include suppliers.
More Jobs in US Solar Industry than US Auto Manufacturing 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 89,838 86,122 116,100 142,698 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Coal Mining US Iron and Steel Mill Industry US Auto Manufacturing US Solar Industry 33 Source: Solar Foundation and US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Auto Manufacturing # s do not include suppliers.
3 YEAR JOB GROWTH RATES 60 50 53% 40 30 20 10-3% 21% 0-10 Coal Mining 4% US Iron and Steel Mill Industry US Auto Manufacturing US Solar Industry 34 Source: Solar Foundation and US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Auto Manufacturing # s do not include suppliers.
The Latest Solar Customer: Solar Panels on the White House Roof 35
California Residential Electric Bills Are 20% Below the National Average 36
Learning from the German Experience 2020 2030 2040 2050 Moving from 200 power plants to 2 million 37
Case Study in Reducing Impacts: Vasco Wind Energy Center Repowering 432 small turbines taken down and replaced with 34 new turbines Vasco Wind Energy Center, 78MW Contra Costa County RESULTS: Energy production tripled & avian mortality cut by 70% 38
Communication Towers 0.20% Vehicles 6.18% Power Lines 0.95% Annual U.S. Avian Mortality Caused by Humans: 3 Billion Birds Buildings 18.51% Wind Turbines 0.01% Cats 74.16% Source: The State of Birds Report, 2014 http://www.stateofthebirds.org/ 39
Over 30 US military bases in CA Representing approximately $130B annually to the California Economy Navy: 50% renewables by 2020 Marines: zero fossil fuels on bases by 2025 40 Source: California Energy Commission, 2014 Geographic Information Systems Data
High speed rail is coming to California and it will be 100% powered by renewables 41
Federal Subsidies Have Favored Fossil Fuels Source: What Would Jefferson Do?, DBL Investors 42
Getting Smarter About Energy Savings 43
POLICY OPPORTUNITIES Net Metering 2.0 PACE Program Aggregate Procurement 2030 Target 44
THE BALANCING ACT Cost Environment Reliability 45
WHAT IS THE ROLE OF THE UTILITIES? They must be agents of change rather than victims of change 46
Drawing Lessons From Successful Campaigns The Story of Acid Rain 47
Reduction in Acid Rain 1985 2012 48 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program, 2014 http://nadp.sws.uiuc.edu/ntn/annualmapsbyyear.aspx
The Ozone Hole 1979 2013 2050 (expected) 49 Source: NASA Ozone Hole Watch, 2014 http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/monthly/sh.html
Smoking in the US 50
70 % of Americans Who Smoke 1965: 60 Health warnings required on packaging 50 40 1983: Cigarette tax doubles 1992: U.S. Bans Sale to Minors 2013: Smoking Rate Falls to 18% 30 20 10 1970: Advertisements banned from TV 1998: CA Bans 1988: U.S. Bans Smoking in Bars Smoking on Airplanes 2014: CVS Stops cigarette sales at 7,600 retail pharmacies 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 2014 http://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/tables/trends/cig_smoking/index.htm
The Stone Age came to an end not for a lack of stones and the oil age will end, but not for a lack of oil. - Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani, former Saudi Oil Minister 52