Allegheny County Health Department Roger Westman,, Ph.D Manager, Air Quality Program April 29, 2005
PM 2.5 Nonattainment Areas Western PA LAWRENCE BEAVER BUTLER ARMSTRONG Pittsburgh Beaver Valley Area (regional transport + urban excess) ALLEGHENY WESTMORELAND Liberty Clairton Area WASHINGTON (regional transport + urban excess + localized impact) FAYETTE GREENE
Liberty/Clairton PM 2.5 Area Includes: City of Clairton Glassport Borough Liberty Borough Lincoln Borough Port Vue Borough
FRM PM 2.5 Trends, Annual Averages 25 20 Liberty '00-'02 DV = 21.4 Concentration µg/m³ 15 10 5 Lawrenceville '00-'02 DV = 16.0 Lawrenceville Liberty Standard 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year
FRM PM 2.5 Trends, 98-percentile 24-Hour Values 70 60 Liberty '00-'02 DV = 62.7 Concentration µg/m³ 50 40 30 20 10 Lawrenceville '00-'02 DV = 39.1 Lawrenceville Liberty Standard 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year
PM 2.5 - Average Major Chemical Species 6 5 Concentration (µg/m³) 4 3 2 Lawrenceville Liberty 1 0 Nitrate Sulfate Ammonium Organic Carbon Elemental Carbon Crustal Component Other Species Timeframe: Oct. 2003 Jan. 2005
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Lawrenceville PM 2.5 - Major Species by Time Nitrate Sulfate Ammonium Organic carbon Elemental carbon Crustal component Other Timeframe: Oct. 2003 Jan. 2005 10/6/2003 11/6/2003 12/6/2003 1/6/2004 2/6/2004 3/6/2004 4/6/2004 5/6/2004 6/6/2004 7/6/2004 8/6/2004 9/6/2004 10/6/2004 11/6/2004 12/6/2004 1/6/2005 Date Concentration (µg/m³)
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Liberty PM 2.5 - Major Species by Time Timeframe: Oct. 2003 Jan. 2005 10/6/2003 11/6/2003 12/6/2003 1/6/2004 2/6/2004 3/6/2004 4/6/2004 5/6/2004 6/6/2004 7/6/2004 8/6/2004 9/6/2004 10/6/2004 11/6/2004 12/6/2004 1/6/2005 Date Nitrate Sulfate Ammonium Organic carbon Elemental carbon Crustal component Other Concentration (µg/m³)
Lawrenceville & Liberty Hourly Peaks, High Day
SIP Submittal Due April 5, 2008 Final SIP Guidance expected Spring 2006 Attainment dates Classifications PM 2.5 precursors NSR RACT RACM RFP
Attainment Dates Attainment by April 2010 Based on 3 calendar years of data: 2007-2009 Schedule overlaps/inconsistencies? Extensions?
Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) Issued by EPA on March 10, 2005 Permanent caps on SO2 and NOx Cap & trade program States are significantly affected by each other Together with Clean Air Mercury Rule, a multipollutant strategy is created
CAIR Projections - Percentages Projections are through 2015, starting from 2003 emissions Projected for Eastern U.S: 70% reduction in SO2 60% reduction in NOx Projected for Pennsylvania: 86% reduction in SO2 (835,000 tons) 56% reduction in NOx (97,000 tons)
CAIR Projections - Areas March 2005 Ozone and Fine Particle Nonattainment Areas Projected 2015 Ozone and Fine Particle Nonattainment Areas after Reductions from CAIR and Existing Programs Nonattainment areas for 8-hour ozone pollution only Nonattainment areas for fine particle pollution only Nonattainment areas for both 8-hour ozone and fine particle pollution
New Source Review EPA interim guidance issued 4/5/05 Use PM 10 as a surrogate for PM 2.5 Same thresholds Assume all PM 2.5 is primary Precursors not addressed
Ongoing/Future Liberty Analysis Modeling CALPUFF applied in a near-field, complex terrain scenario Non-steady-state (puff) plumes should better predict in-valley flow than a steady-state model Plume rise algorithms allow for buoyancy Source Testing Emphasis on organic carbons, selected trace elements Source apportionment - what creates the excess? Meteorological Studies How different is an inversion at Liberty compared to Lawrenceville?
Emission Inventory - Criteria Pollutants
Emission Inventory - VOCs
PM 2.5 Estimation Total Number of Emission Points 1% 12% 0% 8% Emissions 13% 18% 49% 2% 2% 1% 4% 65% 5% 0% 16% 4% AP-42/FIRE - Process Specific AP-42 - Generalized Stack Test EPA Guidance Literature Value Assumed = PM10 Assumed 0.1*PM10 Engineering Estimate
PM 2.5 Estimation Uncontrolled Number of Emission Points 13% 2% 5% 18% Emissions 3% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 17% 62% 77% 0% AP-42/FIRE - Process Specific Stack Test Literature Value Assumed 0.1*PM10 AP-42 - Generalized EPA Guidance Assumed = PM10 Engineering Estimate
PM 2.5 Estimation Controlled Number of Emission Points 2% Emissions 4% 23% 26% 18% 41% 0% 14% 15% 3% 2% 0% 17% 22% 0% 13% AP-42/FIRE - Process Specific Stack Test Literature Value Assumed 0.1*PM10 AP-42 - Generalized EPA Guidance Assumed = PM10 Engineering Estimate
0.014 0.012 0.01 0.008 0.006 0.004 0.002 0 Monitored OH Transport Varies by Pollutant Transport of Sulfur Dioxide and Ammonium Sulfate, West to East 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Quaker City, OH Sugarcreek, OH Hookstown, PA Florence, PA S. Fayette, PA McKees Rocks, PA Downtown Pgh., PA Lawrenceville, PA Monitoring Site Conc. (ppm) Conc.( µg/m³) SO2 Ammon. Sulfate
Highest Trace Elements Chlorine and Sulfur 1.8 1.6 Avg. Concentration µg/m³ 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 As PM 2.5, chlorine is localized to Liberty, while sulfur is regional Lawrenceville Liberty 0.4 0.2 0 Chlorine Sulfur Timeframe: Oct. 2003 Nov. 2004
Additional Trace Elements, Local to Liberty 0.018 0.016 0.014 Avg Concentration µg/m³ 0.012 0.010 0.008 0.006 0.004 Lawrenceville Liberty 0.002 0.000 Bromine Mercury Selenium Lead Timeframe: Oct. 2003 Nov. 2004
Regional or Urban Trace Elements 0.16 Concentration µg/m³ 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 Lawrenceville has higher concentrations of crustal elements (fine soil), as well as firework ingredients such as potassium Lawrenceville Liberty 0.04 0.02 0.00 Aluminum Calcium Iron Magnesium Manganese Phosphorus Potassium Titanium Vanadium Zinc Timeframe: Oct. 2003 Nov. 2004 Crustal component is calculated as a weighted sum of the trace Al, Ca, Fe, Si, Ti concentrations
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Total PM 2.5 by Time Liberty & Lawrenceville LV Grav. Mass Conc. LB Grav. Mass Conc. Timeframe: Oct. 2003 Nov. 2004 Concentration µg/m³ 10/6/2003 11/6/2003 12/6/2003 1/6/2004 2/6/2004 3/6/2004 4/6/2004 5/6/2004 6/6/2004 7/6/2004 8/6/2004 9/6/2004 10/6/2004 11/6/2004
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Organics by Time Timeframe: Oct. 2003 Nov. 2004 LV Organic carbon LB Organic carbon Concentration µg/m³ 10/6/2003 11/6/2003 12/6/2003 1/6/2004 2/6/2004 3/6/2004 4/6/2004 5/6/2004 6/6/2004 7/6/2004 8/6/2004 9/6/2004 10/6/2004 11/6/2004
16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Elemental Carbon by Time Timeframe: Oct. 2003 Nov. 2004 LV Elemental carbon LB Elemental carbon Concentration µg/m³ 10/6/2003 11/6/2003 12/6/2003 1/6/2004 2/6/2004 3/6/2004 4/6/2004 5/6/2004 6/6/2004 7/6/2004 8/6/2004 9/6/2004 10/6/2004 11/6/2004
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Ammonium by Time Timeframe: Oct. 2003 Nov. 2004 LV Ammonium LB Ammonium Concentration µg/m³ 10/6/2003 11/6/2003 12/6/2003 1/6/2004 2/6/2004 3/6/2004 4/6/2004 5/6/2004 6/6/2004 7/6/2004 8/6/2004 9/6/2004 10/6/2004 11/6/2004
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Other by Time 2/6/2004 3/6/2004 4/6/2004 Timeframe: Oct. 2003 Nov. 2004 LV Other LB Other 11/6/ 2004 9/6/2004 10/6/ 2004 5/6/2004 6/6/2004 7/6/2004 8/6/2004 1/6/2004 12/6/ 2003 11/6/ 2003 10/6/ 2003 Concentration µg/m³
25 20 15 10 5 0 Sulfates by Time Timeframe: Oct. 2003 Nov. 2004 LV Sulfate LB Sulfate Concentration µg/m³ 10/6/2003 11/6/2003 12/6/2003 1/6/2004 2/6/2004 3/6/2004 4/6/2004 5/6/2004 6/6/2004 7/6/2004 8/6/2004 9/6/2004 10/6/2004 11/6/2004
4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Nitrates by Time Timeframe: Oct. 2003 Nov. 2004 LV Nitrate LB Nitrate Concentration µg/m³ 10/6/2003 11/6/2003 12/6/2003 1/6/2004 2/6/2004 3/6/2004 4/6/2004 5/6/2004 6/6/2004 7/6/2004 8/6/2004 9/6/2004 10/6/2004 11/6/2004
2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 Crustal Component (Fine Soil) by Time LV Crustal component LB Crustal component 0 Concentration µg/m³ 10/6/2003 11/6/2003 12/6/2003 1/6/2004 2/6/2004 3/6/2004 4/6/2004 5/6/2004 6/6/2004 7/6/2004 8/6/2004 9/6/2004 10/6/2004 11/6/2004 Timeframe: Oct. 2003 Nov. 2004 Crustal component is calculated as a weighted sum of the trace Al, Ca, Fe, Si, Ti concentrations