North Central Indiana Air Quality Update Shawn Seals Senior Environmental Manager Office of Air Quality Indiana Department of Environmental Management (IDEM) April 26, 2016 1
Presentation Summary: Geographic area Long-term PM2.5 air quality and emission trends Long-term ozone air quality and emission trends Current schedule for ongoing National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) review 8-hour ozone area designations Effects of designations Conclusions 2
Geographic area 3
4
Long-term air quality trends 5
PM 2.5 Micrograms Per Cubic Meter (µg/m3) 20.00 18.00 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 2000 2001 2002 PM 2.5 Annual Mean Summary Trend Chart North Central Indiana 2003 2004 2005 Elkhart-Elkhart - Pierre Moran/Prairie St 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 St. Joe-South Bend - Nuner Sch 2014 2015 St. Joe-South Bend - Angela & Eddy/Shields Dr St. Joe-South Bend - LaSalle HS 1997 PM₂.₅ Annual Standard (15.0 µg/m³) 2012 PM₂.₅ Annual Standard (12.0 µg/m³)
PM 2.5 Micrograms Per Cubic Meter (µg/m3) 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 00-02 01-03 02-04 PM 2.5 Annual Design Values Trend Chart North Central Indiana 03-05 04-06 05-07 06-08 07-09 08-10 09-11 10-12 11-13 12-14 13-15 Elkhart-Elkhart - Pierre Moran/Prairie St St. Joe-South Bend - Angela & Eddy/Shields Dr St. Joe-South Bend - Nuner School St. Joe-South Bend - LaSalle HS 1997 PM₂.₅ Annual Standard (15.0 µg/m³) 2012 PM₂.₅ Annual Standard (12.0 µg/m³)
Micrograms Per Cubic Meter (µg/m3) 70.0 65.0 60.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 PM 2.5 PM 2.5 98 th Percentile Values Trend Chart North Central Indiana 2006 2007 Elkhart-Elkhart - Pierre Moran/Prairie St St. Joe-South Bend - Nuner Sch St. Joe-South Bend - Angela & Eddy/Shields Dr St. Joe-South Bend - LaSalle HS 1997 PM₂.₅ 24-Hour Standard (65.0 µg/m³) 2006 PM₂.₅ 24-Hour Standard (35.0 µg/m³) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Micrograms Per Cubic Meter (µg/m3) 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 00-02 01-03 02-04 03-05 04-06 PM 2.5 PM 2.5 24-hour Design Values Trend Chart North Central Indiana 05-07 Elkhart-Elkhart - Pierre Moran/Prairie St St. Joe-South Bend - Angela & Eddy/Shields Dr 06-08 07-09 08-10 09-11 10-12 11-13 St. Joe-South Bend - Nuner Sch St. Joe-South Bend - LaSalle HS 1997 PM₂.₅ 24-Hour Standard (65.0 µg/m³) 2006 PM₂.₅ 24-Hour Standard (35.0 µg/m³) 12-14 13-15
10
Ozone 0.11 0.105 0.1 0.095 0.09 0.085 0.08 0.075 0.07 0.065 0.06 0.055 0.05 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Parts Per Million (ppm) Ozone 4 th - High Values Trend Chart North Central Indiana Elkhart-Bristol St. Joe-Potato Creek St. Joe-Shields Dr St. Joe-Granger St. Joe - Beckley St. 1997 8-Hour Ozone Standard 2008 8-Hour Ozone Standard 2015 8-Hour Ozone Standard
Ozone 0.110 0.105 0.100 0.095 0.090 0.085 0.080 0.075 0.070 0.065 0.060 0.055 0.050 00-02 01-03 02-04 03-05 04-06 05-07 06-08 07-09 08-10 09-11 10-12 11-13 12-14 13-15 Parts Per Million (ppm) 8-hour Ozone Design Values Trend Chart North Central Indiana Elkhart-Bristol St. Joe-Potato Creek St. Joe-Shields Dr St. Joe-Granger 1997 8-Hour Ozone Standard 2008 8-Hour Ozone Standard 2015 8-Hour Ozone Standard
13
Long-term emission trends 14
Emission Trends Elkhart and St. Joseph Counties 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 Tons Per Year 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Voc Nox PM2.5 0 1990 2000 2009 2011 Emissions based on U.S. EPA s Air Pollutant Emissions Trends Data. 15
VOC Emission Trends Elkhart and St. Joseph Counties 2000 VOC 2009 VOC 2011 VOC Area Point Onroad Nonroad Area Point Onroad Nonroad Area Point Onroad Nonroad Total VOC 41,896 Total VOC 19,861 Total VOC 16,390 Values are in Tons Per Year. Emissions based on U.S. EPA s Air Pollutant Emissions Trends Data. 16
NOx Emission Trends Elkhart and St. Joseph Counties 2000 NO x 2009 NO x 2011 NO x Area Point Onroad Nonroad Area Point Onroad Nonroad Area Point Onroad Nonroad Total NO x 27,090 Total NO x 10,294 Total NO x 17,288 Values are in Tons Per Year. Emissions based on U.S. EPA s Air Pollutant Emissions Trends Data. 17
PM2.5 Emission Trends Elkhart and St. Joseph Counties 2000 PM 2.5 2009 PM 2.5 2011 PM 2.5 Area Point Onroad Nonroad Area Point Onroad Nonroad Area Point Onroad Nonroad Total PM 2.5 9,556 Total PM 2.5 4,284 Total PM 2.5 3,494 Values are in Tons Per Year. Emissions based on U.S. EPA s Air Pollutant Emissions Trends Data. 18
Current Schedule for Ongoing NAAQS Reviews POLLUTANT MILESTONE NO 2 /SO 2 Secondary PM 2.5 Ozone Lead NO 2 Primary SO 2 Primary CO Notice of Proposed Rulemaking May 2017 June 29, 2012 Dec. 1, 2014 Dec. 19, 2014 Nov. 2016 Oct. 2018 2016 Notice of Final Rulemaking Feb. 2018 Dec. 14, 2012 Oct. 1, 2015 2016? Aug. 2017 July 2019 2016 U.S. EPA strengthened the annual primary NAAQS to a level of 12 micrograms per cubic meter (µg/m 3 ) and retained the existing secondary annual standard at a level of 15 µg/m 3 and primary and secondary 24-hour standards at a level of 35 µg/m 3. The standards were finalized on January 15, 2013, and became effective on March 18, 2013. U.S. EPA strengthened the 8-hour ozone health standard to a level of 0.070 parts per million (ppm). All Indiana counties are monitoring design value numbers in attainment of the new standard. 19
8-hour Ozone Area Designations On October 1, 2015, U.S. EPA promulgated a rule to revise and strengthen the 8-hour ozone standard to 0.070 parts per million (ppm). The final rule was published in the Federal Register on October 26, 2015. 8-hour design values for all Indiana counties are presently below 0.070 ppm. 10/1/2016: States submit designation recommendations. o Based on monitored data within Indiana, all counties will be recommended as attainment. o 2016 monitor data within the Chicago area and Cincinnati area will need to be closely observed. 10/1/2017: U.S. EPA finalizes area designations. 20
Effects of Designation In an area designated attainment, Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) permitting program requirements apply to new or modified sources. Under the PSD program, sources must perform an air quality analysis and install Best Available Control Technology, or BACT. In an area designated nonattainment, nonattainment New Source Review (NSR) permitting program requirements apply to new or modified sources. Under the nonattainment NSR program, sources must also perform an air quality analysis and utilize the Lowest Achievable Emission Rate, or LAER, which is equal to or more stringent than BACT. In addition, sources must obtain emission offsets, that increase depending on the severity of the nonattainment area (i.e., for every ton emitted, there must be a minimum of 1.1 tons reduced from permitted sources within a marginal nonattainment area). Nonattainment areas are also subject to additional state requirements, which could include: vehicle emissions testing, a demonstration of transportation conformity, and/or a reasonable further progress demonstration. 21
Conclusions: Monitored air quality values have been trending downward and will continue to improve into the future. The overall decrease in emissions in Elkhart and St. Joseph counties can be attributed to a variety of national, regional, statewide, and local controls and initiatives. 22
Questions and Contact Information Shawn Seals Senior Environmental Manager Office of Air Quality SSeals@idem.IN.gov (317) 233-0425 23