Understanding the NAAQS and the Designation Process Shawn Seals Senior Environmental Manager Office of Air Quality Indiana Department of Environmental Management (IDEM) September 21, 2016 1
Presentation Summary: Long-term air quality trends Long-term emission trends Current schedule for ongoing National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) review 8-hour ozone area designations Effects of designations Conclusions 2
Long-term air quality trends 3
Micrograms per Cubic Meter (µg/m3) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 PM 2.5 98 th Percentile Values Trend Chart 70.0 65.0 60.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 Northwest Indiana North Central Indiana Northeast Indiana West Central Indiana Central Indiana East Central Indiana Southwest Indiana Southeast Indiana 1997 PM₂.₅ 24-hour Standard (65.0 µg/m³) 2006 PM₂.₅ 24-hour Standard (35.0 µg/m³) 4
00-02 01-03 02-04 03-05 04-06 05-07 06-08 07-09 08-10 09-11 10-12 11-13 12-14 13-15 Micrograms per Cubic Meter (µg/m3) PM 2.5 Annual Design Values Trend Chart 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 Northwest Indiana North Central Indiana Northeast Indiana West Central Indiana Central Indiana Southwest Indiana Southeast Indiana East Central 1997 PM₂.₅ Annual Standard (15.0 µg/m³) 2012 PM₂.₅ Annual Standard (12.0 µg/m³) 5
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Parts per Million (ppm) 0.110 0.105 0.100 0.095 0.090 0.085 0.080 0.075 0.070 0.065 0.060 0.055 0.050 Ozone 4 th High Values Trend Chart Northeast Indiana Central Indiana North Central Indiana West Central Indiana Southeast Indiana Northwest Indiana Southwest Indiana East Central Indiana 1997 8-hour Ozone Standard 2008 8-hour Ozone Standard 2015 8-hour Ozone Standard 7
00-02 01-03 02-04 03-05 04-06 05-07 06-08 07-09 08-10 09-11 10-12 11-13 12-14 13-15 Parts per Million (ppm) Ozone Design Values Trend Chart 0.105 0.100 0.095 0.090 0.085 0.080 0.075 0.070 0.065 0.060 0.055 Northeast Indiana Central Indiana North Central Indiana West Central Indiana Southeast Indiana Northwest Indiana Southwest Indiana East Central Indiana 1997 8-hour Ozone Standard 2008 8-hour Ozone Standard 2015 8-hour Ozone Standard 8
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Long-term emission trends 10
Tons per Year Statewide Emission Trends 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 VOC NOx PM2.5 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1990 2000 2009 2011 Emissions based on U.S. EPA s Air Pollutant Emissions Trends Data. 11
Statewide VOC Emission Trends 2000 VOC 2009 VOC 2011 VOC Area Nonroad Onroad Point Area Nonroad Onroad Point Area Nonroad Onroad Point Total VOC 518,529 Total VOC 315,975 Total VOC 279,083 Values are in Tons per Year. Emissions based on U.S. EPA s Air Pollutant Emissions Trends Data. 12
Statewide NOx Emission Trends 2000 NO x 2009 NO x 2011 NO x Area Nonroad Onroad Point Area Nonroad Onroad Point Area Nonroad Onroad Point Total NO x 809,977 Total NO x 342,102 Total NO x 443,101 Values are in Tons per Year. Emissions based on U.S. EPA s Air Pollutant Emissions Trends Data. 13
Statewide PM2.5 Emission Trends 2000 PM 2.5 2009 PM 2.5 2011 PM 2.5 Area Nonroad Onroad Point Area Nonroad Onroad Point Area Nonroad Onroad Point Total PM 2.5 239,054 Total PM 2.5 140,369 Total PM 2.5 125,468 Values are in Tons per Year. Emissions based on U.S. EPA s Air Pollutant Emissions Trends Data. 14
Current schedule for ongoing National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) review 15
NAAQS Reviews/Updates Ozone Lead Primary NO2 Primary SO2 Secondary NO2 and SO2 PM CO Last Review Completed Mar 2008 Oct 2008 Jan 2010 Jun 2010 Mar 2012 Dec 2012 Aug 2011 Recent or Upcoming Major Milestone(s) 1 Aug 2014 Final REAs Final PA Nov 2014 Proposed Rule Oct 2015 Final Rule May 2014 Final PA Dec 2014 Proposed Decision 2016 Final Decision May 2015 REA Planning Document Jan 2016 Final ISA Summer 2016 1st Draft PA/REA Jan 2015 CASAC Review of 1 st Draft ISA Fall/Winter 2016 2 nd Draft ISA and REA Planning Document Oct 2015 Draft IRP Spring/Summer 2016 Final IRP Fall 2016 1 st Draft ISA and REA Planning Document Spring 2016 Draft IRP TBD 2 1 IRP Integrated Review Plan; ISA Integrated Science Assessment; REA Risk and Exposure Assessment; PA Policy Assessment 2 TBD To Be Determined 16
Anticipated NAAQS Implementation Milestones Pollutant Final NAAQS Date Designations Effective Infrastructure SIP Due Attainment Plans Due Attainment Date Ozone (2008) Mar 2008 Jul 2012 Mar 2011 Mid 2015-2016 Mid 2015-2032 Ozone (2015) Oct 2015 Dec 2017 Oct 2018 Dec 2020-2021 2020-2037 Lead (2008) Oct 2008 Dec 2010-2011 Oct 2011 Jun 2012-2013 Dec 2015-2016 Primary NO2 (2010) Jan 2010 Feb 2012 Jan 2013 N/A N/A Primary SO2 (2010) Jun 2010 Oct 2013 (+3 Rounds) Jun 2013 Apr 2015 (2018, 2019, 2022) Oct 2018 (2021, 2023, 2026) PM2.5 (2006) Oct 2006 Dec 2009 Oct 2009 Dec 2014 PM2.5 (2012) Dec 2012 Apr 2015 Dec 2015 Oct 2016 (Mod) Dec 2015 (Mod) Dec 2019 (Ser) Dec 2021 (Mod) Dec 2025 (Ser) 17
8-hour Ozone Area Designations 18
8-hour Ozone Implementation Timeline On October 1, 2015, U.S. EPA promulgated a rule to revise and strengthen the 8-hour ozone standard to 0.070 parts per million (ppm). The final rule was published in the Federal Register on October 26, 2015. 8-hour design values for all Indiana counties are presently below 0.070 ppm. 10/1/2016: States submit designation recommendations. o o Based on monitored data within Indiana, all counties will be recommended as attainment. 2016 monitor data within the Chicago area and Cincinnati area will need to be closely observed. 10/1/2017: U.S. EPA finalizes area designations. 19
Effects of Designations 20
Designation Status Consequences In an area designated attainment, Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) permitting program requirements apply to new or modified sources. Under the PSD program, sources must perform an air quality analysis and install Best Available Control Technology, or BACT. In an area designated nonattainment, nonattainment New Source Review (NSR) permitting program requirements apply to new or modified sources. Under the nonattainment NSR program, sources must also perform an air quality analysis and utilize the Lowest Achievable Emission Rate, or LAER, which is equal to or more stringent than BACT. In addition, sources must obtain emission offsets, that increase depending on the severity of the nonattainment area (i.e., for every ton emitted, there must be a minimum of 1.1 tons reduced from permitted sources within a marginal nonattainment area). Nonattainment areas are also subject to additional state requirements, which could include: vehicle emissions testing, a demonstration of transportation conformity, and/or a reasonable further progress demonstration. 21
Conclusions 22
What All This Means Monitored air quality values have been trending downward and will continue to improve into the future. The overall decrease in emissions across Indiana can be attributed to a variety of national, regional, statewide, and local controls and initiatives. 23
Questions and Contact Information Shawn Seals Senior Environmental Manager Office of Air Quality SSeals@idem.IN.gov (317) 233-0425 24