New energy realities Navigating the triple transition World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil Christoph Frei Secretary General World Energy Council November 2016 @chwfrei
Billions of People World population 1970-2060 UN Population Growth (Billions of People) 12 10 Actuals (1970-2015) Forecast (2015-2060) 16x 14x 12 10 8 6 4 20 x 12x 8 6 4 Billions of People 2 2-0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Source: UN Population Forecasts to 2100 World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil
-0,4% -0,7% -0,4% 0,6% 0,2% 0,5% 0,2% 0,2% 0,4% 1,0% 1,4% 1,0% 1,0% 1,0% 1,9% 2,2% 2,7% 2,4% 2,5% 2,2% 2,1% 2,9% 3,3% 3,0% Growth in the past 45 years (1970-2015) Climate Change Challenge Carbon Intensity % reduction pa 1970-2015 (GtCO 2 /GDP USD) China India Germany Saudi Arabia Spain United States United Kingdom World Average 2015-2060 (GtCO 2 /GDP USD) 1000 De-carbonization GtCO2 for by 1000 2100GtCO 2 6% 1970-2000 2000-2014 1970-2014 Source: Total Economy Database, BP (2015) Statistical Review, IPCC (2015) AR5, Synthesis Report ; Note: Positive % changes denote a reduction in CO 2 per USD of GDP Note: Assumes global GDP growth of 26% World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil
10 business shifts It is not difficult to come up with plausible scenarios that fundamentally change & challenge the conditions under which energy companies have to operate in the next decade FROM big plants & upstream high entry barriers centralised & monoculture long term fixed returns operational & system excellence burning molecules traditional market design incorporation global brand TO big data & technology low entry barriers decentralised & local empowerment rapid & flexible pay-back service brilliance leasing capital capacity & storage incentives corporate IP venturing local trust World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil
Financing Resilient Energy Infrastructure Extreme Weather Events Number of natural catastrophes, 1970-2014: factor 4 Insured catastrophe losses, 1970-2014 200 Natural catastrophes 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: Swiss Re Sigma 02/2015 Comparing the last 5 years to the last 20 years: The occurrence of extreme events has roughly quadrupled; according to IPCC this is largely related to the 40% increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere From impact-resistant hard / safe-fail components to soft / fail-safe systems The solution appears to be smarter not stronger World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil Source: WEC Financing Resilience Report, 2015 (October 1); also Swiss Re, 2015: Sigma report No 2/2015
From hard resilience to soft resilience 2015 World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil
Cyber critical & monoculture power plant risks design data stolen 2016 hardware destroyed massive damage to industrial equipment Financing Resilient Energy Infrastructure Managing Cyber Risks 80 000 blacked out Cyber a monoculture risk? World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil
hydrogen economy World Energy Issues Monitor 2016 Global map electric storage terrorism trade barriers Russia US policy India ccs Middle East dynamics digitalisation innovative transport EU Cohesion market design extreme weather risks China large scale accidents exchange rates unconventionals sustainable cities regional integration climate framework energy water nexus biofuels decentralised systems economic growth nuclear LNG energy subsidies corruption talent renewable energies electricity prices capital markets weak signals coal land use energy access energy affordability hydro cyber threats critical uncertainties: what keeps energy leaders awake at night need for action: energy efficiency what keeps energy leaders busy at work commodity prices World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil World Energy Council 2015
World Energy Issues Monitor 2016 Global map cyber threats hydrogen economy terrorism Russia India ccs electric storage trade barriers US policy Middle East dynamics digitalisation innovative transport EU Cohesion market design China extreme weather risks exchange rates regional integration sustainable cities climate framework decentralised systems economic growth large scale unconventionals accidents energy water nexus biofuels nuclear corruption LNG talent capital markets commodity prices energy subsidies renewable energies electricity prices energy affordability coal hydro land use energy access energy efficiency Key insomnia issues are of macro nature: new growth normal, commodity price volatility, climate framework uncertainty and regional integration / cohesion World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil World Energy Council 2015
World Energy Issues Monitor 2016 Global map cyber threats hydrogen economy terrorism Russia India ccs electric storage trade barriers US policy Middle East dynamics digitalisation innovative transport EU Cohesion market design China extreme weather risks exchange rates regional integration sustainable cities climate framework decentralised systems economic growth LNG energy subsidies corruption talent renewable energies capital markets electricity prices large scale unconventionals accidents commodity prices energy water nexus biofuels nuclear energy affordability coal hydro land use energy access energy efficiency Key action priorities remain constant: renewables, energy efficiency, followed by subsidies and electricity prices World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil World Energy Council 2015
World Energy Issues Monitor 2016 Global map: key upward trends cyber threats hydrogen economy India ccs electric storage terrorism trade barriers Russia US policy commodity prices Middle East dynamics digitalisation innovative transport EU Cohesion market design extreme weather risks China exchange rates regional integration sustainable cities climate framework decentralised economic growth systems LNG energy subsidies corruption talent renewable energies capital markets electricity prices large scale unconventionals accidents energy water nexus biofuels nuclear energy affordability coal hydro land use energy access energy efficiency The innovation cluster continues to move up: e- storage, digitalisation, decentralised systems World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil World Energy Council 2015
World Energy Issues Monitor 2016 Global map: key downward trends cyber threats hydrogen economy ccs India electric storage trade barriers US policy Middle East dynamics digitalisation innovative transport EU Cohesion market design China extreme weather risks exchange rates unconventionals regional integration sustainable cities climate framework energy water nexus decentralised systems economic growth LNG nuclear energy subsidies corruption talent renewable energies capital markets electricity prices large scale accidents terrorism Russia biofuels coal land use energy access energy affordability hydro commodity prices energy efficiency CCS, unconventionals and nuclear and coal are issues which have seen the biggest cooling down over past years World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil World Energy Council 2015
World Energy Issues Monitor 2016 Resilience cyber threats hydrogen economy India ccs terrorism Russia trade barriers Middle East dynamics US policy digitalisation commodity prices innovative transport EU Cohesion market design extreme weather risks China large scale accidents exchange rates unconventionals regional integration sustainable cities climate framework energy water nexus decentralised systems economic growth nuclear LNG energy subsidies corruption talent renewable energies capital markets electricity prices biofuels electric storage energy affordability coal hydro land use energy access energy efficiency World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil World Energy Council 2015
World Energy Issues Monitor 2016 Resilience cyber threats hydrogen economy India ccs terrorism Russia trade barriers Middle East dynamics US policy digitalisation commodity prices innovative transport EU Cohesion market design extreme weather risks China large scale accidents exchange rates unconventionals regional integration sustainable cities climate framework energy water nexus decentralised systems economic growth nuclear LNG energy subsidies corruption talent renewable energies capital markets electricity prices biofuels electric storage energy affordability coal hydro land use energy access energy efficiency World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil World Energy Council 2015
World Energy Issues Monitor 2016 Resilience Peru cyber threats Niger Czech RepublicLithuania Spain Japan Hong Kong hydrogen Senegal economy Brazil South Korea Argentina Venezuela Mexico South Africa Italy Hungary United States Latvia Portugal India electric storage terrorism trade barriers Estonia BelgiumAustria Russia Bulgaria France US Norway Switzerland Australia policy India ccs Middle SerbiaEast Congo Malaysia dynamics (Democratic Republic digitalisation Iraq of) Germany Canada Tunisia commodity prices Saudi Arabia Finland United Kingdom innovative EU Cohesion market design extreme weather risks Ecuadortransport Burkina China Faso large scale accidents exchange Monaco rates unconventionals Cote d'ivoire United Arab Emirates Jordan Ireland sustainable cities Ethiopia regional integration Botswana Ghana Trinidad & Tobago climate framework energy water nexus aziland Iceland decentralised systems Nigeria Russian Cyprus Federation economic Netherlands growth Indonesia Algeria biofuels nuclear Gabon LNG Kenya Chad energy subsidies Lebanon corruption talent renewable energies electricity prices Colombia capital markets Mongolia Bolivia Dominican Republic energy affordability coal hydro energy efficiency land use energy access cyber threats Iran Singapore China Countries with highest concerns for cyber threats are in East Asia and Europe World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil World Energy Council 2015
Market design cyber threats hydrogen economy electric storage terrorism trade barriers Russia US policy India ccs Middle East dynamics digitalisation innovative transport EU Cohesion market design extreme weather risks China large scale accidents exchange rates unconventionals sustainable cities regional integration climate framework energy water nexus biofuels decentralised systems economic growth nuclear LNG energy subsidies corruption talent renewable energies electricity prices capital markets commodity prices energy affordability coal hydro land use energy access energy efficiency World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil World Energy Council 2015
Market design cyber threats Algeria Czech Republic Finland hydrogen economy Iceland Spain United States electric storage Hungary Chad terrorism trade barriers South Africa Austria Peru Russia US policy India ccs South Korea commodity prices Russian Middle Federation East Lithuania dynamics digitalisation Brazil Iraq Tunisia Niger Colombia Kenya innovative transport EU Cohesion market design Estonia extreme Burkina weather Faso risks Latvia Bulgaria China Singapore Congo (Democratic Republic of) large scale accidents exchange rates Ecuador Mexico Serbia France Swaziland United Arab Emirates Monaco unconventionals Jordan Dominican Republic Portugal Botswana Hong Kong Venezuela sustainable cities regional integration Ireland Trinidad & Tobago climate framework Ghana Japan energy water nexus Indonesia Canada decentralised systems Switzerland Italy Belgium Netherlands Argentina United economic growth biofuels nuclear Nigeria LNG Kingdom Cyprus Norway Gabon energy subsidies Malaysia corruption Saudi Arabia Bolivia talent Lebanon Australia Iran renewable energies China India electricity prices Senegal capital markets Cote d'ivoire Mongolia Germany energy affordability coal hydro Ethiopia land use energy access energy efficiency Countries with highest concerns for cyber threats are in East Asia, North America and Europe World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil World Energy Council 2015
World Energy Issues Monitor 2016 Estonia Russia hydrogen economy ccs India Middle East dynamics China terrorism market design sustainable cities decentralised systems large scale accidents economic growth climate framework innovative transport US policy regional integration commodity prices trade barriers renewable energies EU Cohesion energy subsidies nuclear LNG capital markets electricity prices energy affordability energy water nexus extreme weather risks hydro coal corruption exchange rates energy access land use World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil Key action priorities are energy subsidies, electricity World Energy Council 2015 cyber threats electric storage digitalisation biofuels unconventionals talent energy efficiency Top insomnia issues in Estonia are Russia, market design, economic growth & climate framework & commodity prices as well as renewables Other top impact issues include EU cohesion & regional integration as well as energy efficiency
Three Scenarios Stories MODERN JAZZ Free market driven approach to achieving individual access and affordability of energy through economic growth UNFINISHED SYMPHONY Government-driven approach to achieving sustainability through internationally coordinated politics and practices HARD ROCK Fragmented approach driven by desire for energy security in a world with low global cooperation Fast economic growth Strong technological development Transition to a highly productive world Handles well the economic and geopolitical shift to Asia Broadly addresses sustainability Developments on the energy supply-side and in the mid-stream reduce energy costs Greater access to energy for all World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil Moderate economic growth (slower, more sustainable, more evenly distributed) Delivery of high levels of infrastructure Extensive network of fiscal incentives such as green subsidies and carbon pricing Global standardization across sectors Strong tech innovation in largescale, integrated solutions that drive efficiencies & reduce carbon emissions Stagnated economic growth Ineffective policies and failed market structures Poverty and inequity drag down social and economic mobility Weakening resilience of energy systems Large scale (national) energy solutions driven by security concerns: hydro, nuclear, fossil fuels 36
Energy Demand Energy Demand Energy Demand per capita ( 000 MTOE) 20 (TOE) 2,2 18 16 2,0 peaking at equivalent of 2500 W 14 1,8 12 10 1,6 8 6 History Modern Jazz 1,4 History Modern Jazz 4 Unfinished Symphony 1,2 Unfinished Symphony 2 Hard Rock Hard Rock 0 1970 2000 2014 2030 2060 1,0 1970 2000 2014 2030 2060 World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil 37
Carbon Emissions and Carbon Budget Annual Carbon Emissions Cumulative Carbon Emissions from 2015 (Gt CO2) (Gt CO2) 40 35 30 1 800 1 600 1 400 Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock 25 1 200 20 15 10 5 History Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock IPCC 2 C Target 1 000 800 600 400 200 Carbon Budget year of reaching & exceeding carbon budget 0 2000 2014 2030 2060 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil 38
Energy intensity & Fossil fuel share Energy Intensity Fossil Fuel Share (MJ / US$ 2010 MEX) (%) 13 12 11 10 9 90 85 80 75 8 7 6 70 65 5 4 3 2 1 History Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock 60 55 50 45 History Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock 0 1970 2000 2014 2030 2060 40 1970 2000 2014 2030 2060 World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil 40
Coal and Oil Demand Coal Demand Oil Demand ( 000 MTOE) ( 000 MTOE) 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 History Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 2,5 2,0 1,5 History Modern Jazz 1,0 1,0 Unfinished Symphony 0,5 0,5 Hard Rock 0,0 1970 2000 2014 2030 2060 0,0 1970 2000 2014 2030 2060 World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil 41
Natural Gas & Nuclear Demand Natural Gas Demand Nuclear Electricity Generation ( 000 MTOE) ( 000 TWh) 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 History Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock 9 8 7 6 History Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock 3,5 3,0 2,5 5 4 2,0 3 1,5 1,0 0,5 2 1 0,0 1970 2000 2014 2030 2060 0 1970 2000 2014 2030 2060 World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil 42
Wind & Solar Electricity Wind Electricity Generation Solar Electricity Generation ( 000 TWh) ( 000 TWh) 9 History 9 History 8 Modern Jazz 8 Modern Jazz 7 Unfinished Symphony 7 Unfinished Symphony 6 Hard Rock 6 Hard Rock 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 1970 2000 2014 2030 2060 0 1970 2000 2014 2030 2060 World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil 44
PYRAMID OF ENERGY POLICY NEEDS: LEGITIMATE Abraham Maslow, 1943 theory on motivational structure of a healthy person ENVIRONMENT ENERGY SECURITY BALANCING THE ENERGY TRILEMMA: STRATEGIC AFFORDABILE ENERGY World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil 46
World Energy Trilemma Balancing the Energy Trilemma Energy Security The effective management of primary energy supply from domestic and external sources, the reliability of energy infrastructure, and the ability of energy providers to meet current and future demand Energy Equity Accessibility and affordability of energy supply across the population Environmental Sustainability Encompasses the achievement of supply and demand side energy efficiencies and the development of energy supply from renewable and other low-carbon sources ENERGY EQUITY World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil World Energy Council 2015 ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
World Energy Trilemma 2016 Estonia UK World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil
Priority actions To meet climate targets, development goals and balance the trilemma a focus on a few key mechanisms is needed At the international level: Trade Trade Trade and and transfer and transfer of technology Carbon Carbon Financing mechanisms Trade of technology of and transfer pricing Carbon pricing pricing Financing mechanisms of technology and subsidies mechanisms Demand manage m and and energy and energy energy efficie At the national level: Demand management Demand energy management efficiency and energy efficiency Prioritise innovation Prioritisation and RD&D of innovation and RD&D World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil @chwfrei
Defining measures to accelerate the energy transition World Energy Council 2016 wwwworldenergyorg @WECouncil 50