RENEWABLE ENERGY IN EUROPE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION Greenhouse gas emission savings due to renewable energy (2009-12) Manjola Banja, Fabio Monforti-Ferrario, Katalin Bódis, Vincenzo Motola Foreword Heinz Ossenbrink 2 0 1 5 Report EUR 27253 EN
European Commission Joint Research Centre Institute for Energy and Transport Contact information Manjola Banja Address: Joint Research Centre Via E. Fermi 2749, TP 450, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy E-mail: Manjola.Banja@ec.europa.eu Tel.: +39 0332 78 3992 JRC Science Hub https://ec.europa.eu/jrc Legal notice This publication is a Science for Policy Report by the Joint Research Centre, the European Commission s in-house science service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policy-making process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of this publication. All images European Union 2015 JRC95263 EUR 27253 EN ISBN 978-92-79-48368-4 (PDF) ISBN 978-92-79-48369-1 (print) ISSN 1831-9424 (online) ISSN 1018-5593 (print) doi:10.2790/941325 Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2015 European Union, 2015 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. Abstract The report provides an overview of greenhouse gas emission savings in the European Union due to the use of renewable energy in three sectors: electricity, heating/cooling and transport. The assessment is based on data reported by EU Member States in their 2011 and 2013 bi-annual progress reports, as required under Article 22(1)(k) of Directive 2009/28/EC on renewable energy. The report assesses all 28 Member States of the European Union and covers the period 2009-12.
Table of contents Table of contents... 3 Foreword... 5 Acknowledgements... 7 Executive summary... 9 Introduction... 13 Chapter 1. Overview of Member State methodologies to calculate GHG emission savings (2009-12)15 1.1 Belgium... 17 1.2 Bulgaria... 17 1.3 Czech Republic... 17 1.4 Denmark... 17 1.5 Germany... 18 1.6 Estonia... 19 1.7 Ireland... 19 1.8 Greece... 20 1.9 Spain... 20 1.10 France... 20 1.11 Croatia... 21 1.12 Italy... 21 1.13 Cyprus... 21 1.14 Latvia... 22 1.15 Lithuania... 22 1.16 Luxembourg... 22 1.17 Hungary... 22 1.18 Malta... 22 1.19 Netherlands... 23 1.20 Austria... 23 1.21 Poland... 23 1.22 Portugal... 24 1.23 Romania... 24 1.24 Slovenia... 24 1.25 Slovakia... 24 1.26 Finland... 25 1.27 Sweden... 25 1.28 United Kingdom... 27 Chapter 2. Trend for GHG emissions in Europe (1990-12)... 29 2.1 Overall GHG emissions EU trends... 29 2.2 Overview of energy-related GHG emissions in Europe (1990-12)... 30 2.3 Overview of GHG emissions by Member State... 31 Chapter 3. GHG emission savings from renewable energy use in the EU (2009-12)... 37 3.1 GHG emission savings and renewable energy trend in the EU... 37 3.1.1 Trend for GHG emission savings... 37 3.1.2 Renewable energy trend... 38 pp. 3
3.2 GHG emission savings and renewable energy by sector... 39 3.2.1 Electricity... 41 3.2.2 Heating/cooling... 41 3.2.3 Transport... 42 3.3 Overview by Member State... 42 3.3.1 Contribution to energy-related GHG emissions... 42 3.3.2 Contribution to total GHG emission savings... 45 3.4 Economic benefits of GHG emission savings... 56 Conclusions... 59 References... 60 Abbreviations... 62 List of figures... 63 List of tables... 63 ANNEX I... 65 ANNEX II... 71 ANNEX III... 75 pp. 4
Foreword This report is published at a time where the European Union proposes a Climate and Energy policy, which shall be the Europe's contribution to the 21 st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in December 2015, in Paris, France. The report takes stock of the achievements of the current EU policy on renewable energy, and the impact this policy has on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The European Union has committed to reducing GHG emissions by 20% by 2020, and has set out a Europe-wide target for the reduction of energy consumption by 20%, as well as member state-specific, mandatory targets for the share of renewable energy, which shall add up to an EU wide share of 20% renewable resources. It is certainly very justified to ask, to which extent every unit of energy provided by renewable sources, as well as every unit of energy saved contributes to the overall goal of reducing GHG emission. This question is fundamental in projecting objectives for future shares of renewables and relative savings of energy in order to achieve more ambitious European GHG reduction goals for the year 2030, which are proposed to be above 30% or even 40%. The report outlines the framework to quantify the impact of renewable energy deployment on GHG emission. It analyses, how fossil energy carriers are displaced by renewable sources, and has to assume very specific issues of the energy supply mix in the member-states. Much of this analysis is based on the calculation done individually in the Member States, as required by their own bi-annual reports. However, the modalities to calculate the GHG emission savings or the underlying assumptions of what fossil energy sources are displaced by what type of renewables are far from being harmonized. The report describes also in detail the GHG emission reduction (or increase) for each Member State, as an indication of the national efforts to contribute to mitigate Climate Change. More specific, it analyses the emission mix from the main consumption sectors electricity, heating/cooling and transportation. We wish that the report is detailed enough that Member States can compare each other, as well as for feeding back validated results to the upcoming negotiations mitigating on global GHG emissions. Heinz Ossenbrink Head of Renewables and Energy Efficiency Unit Institute for Energy and Transport Joint Research Centre, European Commission pp. 5
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Acknowledgements This report was prepared by the Renewables and Energy Efficiency Unit (REEU) of Institute for Energy and Transport (IET), Joint Research Centre (JRC) of European Commission (EC). Manjola Banja had the responsibility to design and developed this report which benefits from the contribution of other co-authors, especially Fabio Monforti-Ferrario. Katalin Bódis contributed also with GIS mapping of data on renewable energy development in EU and on net GHG emissions savings from the use of renewable energy. Special thanks to Arnulf Jäger-Waldau (IET, REEU) for reviewing the report and to Richard Davies and Mark Osborne (DGT) for their contribution in editing this report. Data contained in this report are part of the complete, updated and available for download database [14] on national renewable energy action plans and bi-annual progress reports established by the Renewables and Energy Efficiency Unit of IET, JRC, EC, under the support of its head Heinz Ossenbrink. Please cite as Banja M., Monforti-Ferrario F., Bódis K., Motola V. (2015). Renewable energy in Europe for climate change mitigation Greenhouse gas emission savings due to renewable energy (2009-12). JRC Science for Policy Report, EUR 27253 EN. pp. 7
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Executive summary Policy context: This report 1 assesses the data reported by the European Union Member States in first two waves of their biannual progress reports [1] covering the 2009-12 time span as of the request of Article 22(1) (k) of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) [2]. The role that renewable energy (RE) plays to the net greenhouse gas (GHG) emission savings in the European Union is analysed in details in this report supporting the implementation of the RED in each Member States. Key conclusions: Renewable energy has a large potential in the portfolio of climate change mitigation and its increasing share in gross final energy consumption is a main option for lowering the GHG emissions from the energy system in the European Union. Main findings: Methodological issues 18 Member States developed and applied their own methodology to calculate the GHG emission savings from the final consumption of renewable energy in electricity sector; 5 Member States declared to have applied the methodology suggested in COM (2010) 11. 16 Member States applied their methodology to calculate the GHG emission savings from the final consumption of renewable energy in heating/cooling sector; 7 MS declared to have applied the methodology suggested in COM (2010) 11; 12 Member States applied their factors to calculate the GHG emission savings from the use of biofuels in transport sector; 11 MS declared to have applied the methodology suggested in the Renewable Energy Directive. More findings on GHG emission savings trends in European Union related to renewable energy development during period 2009-12 can be found below: GHG emission savings due to final renewable energy consumption in electricity, heating/cooling and transport sectors were 716 Mt CO 2 eq in 2012, having risen from the 2009 figure (529.4 Mt CO 2 eq) at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.8 %; 1 Disclaimer: This report is not a policy document and as such it does not represent the views of the European Commission. pp. 9
Renewable energy related GHG emission savings increased from 1.05 Mt CO 2 eq/capita in 2009 to 1.42 Mt CO 2 eq/capita in 2012; The contribution of EU GHG emission savings from the use of renewable energy to total GHG emission 2 rose from 10.2 % in 2009 to 13.6 % in 2012; The contribution of EU GHG emission savings from the use of renewable energy to total energy-related GHG emission 3 rose from 12.6 % in 2009 to 16.6 % in 2012; The proportion of GHG emission savings due to the use of renewable energy in the EU rose from 35 % of total GHG emission reductions 4 in 2009 to nearly 40 % in 2012; 0 64% Sectoral breakdown of net GHG emission savings due to renewable energy in EU, 2012 0 RES-E RES H/C RES-T 31.3% 25.5% 12.5% 1.9% 4.7% RES (39.9%) 716 Mt CO2 eq Non RES (60.1%) 1080 Mt CO2 eq 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Figure I. Contribution of GHG emission savings due to RES contribution in the GHG emissions reduction in EU, 2012 The contribution of renewable electricity development to the total RE- related GHG emission savings in EU increased from 56.3 % (298 Mt CO 2 eq) in 2009 to 64 % (458 Mt CO 2 eq) in 2012; (see Figure I) % 2 The contribution of net GHG emission savings in a year to the total GHG emissions for this year are obtained as a ratio between net GHG emission savings in this year and the total hypothetical GHG emissions for this year (total hypothetical GHG emissions in a year are obtained by adding the absolute values of net avoided GHG emissions in a year due to renewable energy to the actual GHG emissions in that year). 3 For each year, the contribution of RE-related net GHG emission savings to energy related GHG emissions are obtained as a ratio between RE-related net GHG emission savings and the total hypothetical energy related GHG emissions. Total hypothetical energy related GHG emissions in a year are obtained by adding the absolute values of net RE-related avoided GHG to the actual GHG emissions in that year). 4 For each year, the contribution of net RE- related GHG emission savings to the total GHG emissions reductions are obtained as ration between the net RE-related GHG emissions savings and the hypothetical GHG emissions reductions. Hypothetical GHG emissions reductions are obtained by adding the absolute values of net avoided GHG emissions due to renewable energy to the actual GHG emissions reductions, defined as the difference between actual GHG emission in the given year and GHG emissions in 1990. This methodology is applied also in the calculation of each sector contribution in the GHG emission reductions in the EU. pp. 10
GHG emission savings due to renewable electricity accounted for 19.7 % of the total GHG emissions reduction in the EU in 2009 and 25.5 % in 2012; (see Figure I) Renewable heat consumption in the EU saved 207 Mt CO 2 eq in 2009 and 224 Mt CO 2 eq in 2012; The proportion of total GHG emission savings from the use of renewable energy accounted for by renewable heat consumption decreased from 39.1 % in 2009 to 31.3 % in 2012; GHG emission savings from the use of renewable energy in transport increased from 24.4 Mt CO 2 eq in 2009 to 33.8 Mt CO 2 eq in 2012; The proportion of GHG emission savings in transport rose from 4.6 % in 2009 to 4.9 % in 2011 and fell back to 4.7 % in 2012; The use of renewable energy in electricity and heating/cooling in 2009 resulted in a 30% (505 Mt CO 2 eq) saving of GHG emissions from public power and heat production 5. In 2012, the figure reached nearly 36 % (682.2 Mt CO 2 eq); GHG emission savings from the use of renewable energy in transport accounted for 2.5 % of total GHG emissions from this sector 6 in 2009 and 3.6 % in 2012; Almost two thirds of total GHG emission savings in the EU in 2012 came from renewable energy development in Germany (144.5 Mt CO 2 eq), Sweden (98 Mt CO 2 eq), France (82.4 Mt CO 2 eq), Italy (70.94 Mt CO 2 eq) and Spain (56.86 Mt CO 2 eq); In the electricity field, the main GHG emissions savers in 2012, accounting for 60 % of total savings from renewable electricity, were Germany (102 Mt CO 2 eq), Sweden (67 Mt CO 2 eq), France (56.4 Mt CO 2 eq), Italy (47.8 Mt CO 2 eq) and Spain (37.6 Mt CO 2 eq); In the heating and cooling sector, In 2012 the main GHG emissions savers from renewable heat were Germany (37.2 Mt CO 2 eq), Finland (24 Mt CO 2 eq), Italy (20.5 Mt CO 2 eq), France (19.9 Mt CO 2 eq) and Poland (18.5 Mt CO 2 eq); In the transport sector France was the main GHG emissions saver (6.16 Mt CO 2 eq) due to the use of renewable energy in transport, followed by Spain with 5.89 Mt CO 2 eq, Germany with 5.60 Mt CO 2 eq, Poland with 3.08 Mt CO 2 eq and Italy with 2.67 Mt CO2eq; The economic benefits of GHG emission savings due to renewable energy use in the EU during the period covered by this study varied from 74.1 billion in 2009 to 47.1 billion in 2012. 5 For each year, the contribution of net renewable electricity and heat GHG emission savings to public power and heat related GHG emissions are obtained as a ratio between net renewable electricity and heat GHG emission savings and the total hypothetical public power and heat related GHG emissions. The total hypothetical public power and heat related GHG emissions are obtained by adding the absolute values of net avoided GHG emissions due to renewable energy to the actual public power and heat GHG emissions. 6 For each year, the contribution of net GHG emission savings from use of renewable energy in transport sector to the transport sector related GHG emissions is obtained as a ratio between net GHG emission savings from renewable energy in transport and the total hypothetical transport related GHG emissions. Total hypothetical transport related GHG emissions are obtained by adding the absolute values of net avoided GHG emissions due to renewable energy to the actual transport related GHG emissions. pp. 11
Related and future work: This report complements the set of reports on renewable energy development ([3], [4], [5], [6], [7] and [8]) published by JRC-IET, and will serve as a basis for the future work in this topic as the bi-annual progress reports on renewable energy development in European Union are expected to be submitted to the European Commission till 2021. Quick guide: The report covers the 2009-12 period and is organised in three chapters: First Chapter provides an overview of the methodologies used by the Member States to calculate the GHG emission savings due to the use of renewable energy in three main sectors: electricity, heating/cooling and transport. As a general rule, net savings were estimated by calculating the difference between emissions from RES and their fossil comparators. For the fossil comparators, different emission factors were applied to electricity and heat production in line with EC recommendations. For electricity and heating/cooling, if no later estimates were available, the Member States were invited to use the EU-wide fossil fuel comparators for electricity and heat, as set out in the report on sustainability requirements for the use of solid and gaseous biomass sources in electricity, heating and cooling [11]. When estimating their net GHG emission savings from the use of biofuels, Member States had the option, under Article 22(2) of the RED, of using the typical values given in parts A and B of Annex V to the Directive. If a Member State chose not to use the suggested methodology for estimating net GHG emission savings, it had to describe what other methodology was used. An overview of GHG emissions in the EU, energy-related emissions in the three abovementioned sectors, their contribution to total GHG emissions and GHG emissions in individual Member States is presented in the Second Chapter of the report. Third Chapter of the report presents the trend in GHG emission savings from the use of renewable energy in the EU, on the basis of Table 6 of the template used in the Member States bi-annual progress reports. The savings are detailed by sector and by Member State for the 2009-12 period. We also analysed the absolute and relative share of GHG emission savings due to renewable energy use in the total net GHG emission savings in the EU during the same period. As a benchmark, we also included data on GHG emissions in the EU, taken from European Environment Agency sources. A short section here also deals with the economic benefits of GHG emission savings by referring to changes in the price of carbon in the EU during the period covered by this study. Annex I presents a summary of data reported by Member States in their 1 st and 2 nd progress reports on greenhouse gas emission savings by renewable energy in the EU during period 2009-12. The relationship between greenhouse gas emission savings and renewable energy sources as well as the CAGR of renewable energy in EU Member States, 2009-12 are presented respectively in Annex II and Annex III of this report. pp. 12
Introduction Around 10% of the greenhouse gases emitted worldwide in 2012 came from the European Union (EU). For 2020, the EU has decided, as a unilateral commitment, to reduce overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from its 28 Member States by 20% compared to 1990 levels. Renewable Energy Sources (RES) are a major tool for achieving the commitment of the decarbonisation of the European Union s economy, as provided for in the EU Climate and Energy Package [9] and a legally binding target of 20 % of gross final energy consumption (GFEC) from RES has been set for 2020 in the Renewable Energy Directive. Moreover, in October 2014 the Commission proposed a climate and energy policy framework for 2030 that includes a target of reducing emissions to 40 % below 1990 levels and increasing the proportion of renewable energy in the EU s energy consumption to at least 27 %. For 2050, EU leaders have endorsed the objective of reducing Europe s GHG emissions by 80-95 % compared with 1990 levels, as part of similar joint efforts by developed countries. While the discussion of explicit targets for RES is still far off, ambitious targets in reducing GHG emissions must be reflected in a truly consistent role for RES. The European Commission strictly monitors the deployment of RES in the EU on the basis of the progress reports submitted every two years by its 28 Member States. This report offers a combined analysis of the Member States 2011 and 2013 progress reports, in order to identify trends in GHG emission savings due to the final consumption of renewable energy in EU in three main sectors: electricity, heating/cooling and transport. Since the entry into force of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) and the related national renewable energy action plans (NREAPs) [10], RES have already provided a strong overall contribution to GHG reduction: in 2012, the equivalent of 716 Mt CO 2 was avoided for the EU area as a whole. The level of success varied from country to country, depending on the technologies in use. pp. 13
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Chapter 1. Overview of Member State methodologies to calculate GHG emission savings (2009-12) According to Article 22 (1) (k) of RED each Member State should report on the estimated net GHG emission savings due to the use of renewable energy sources in its territory. While no methodology is suggested for estimating GHG savings arising from wind, solar, hydro, geothermal and tidal/waves sources, in the case of biomass, biofuels and bioliquids some standard methodologies are suggested in the RED. In the case of greenhouse gas performance of solid and gaseous biomass used in electricity and heating/cooling sectors the suggested methodology is provided in the report on sustainability requirements of solid biomass and biogas used in electricity and heating/cooling sectors [11] briefly referred hereafter as "COM (2010) 11 methodology". In the case of biofuels and bioliquids in the transport sector, Articles 17, 18, 19, 21 and Annex III and V of RED establish both a sustainability scheme and rules for the calculation of the biofuels impact on GHG emission savings, briefly referred hereafter as "Annex V methodology". If a Member State chooses not to use the suggested RED methodology, it should describe what other methodology has been used to estimate these savings. Most Member States decided to develop and apply their own methodology for the calculation of biomass related net GHG emission savings in electricity (18 Member States out of 28) and heating and cooling (16 out of 28) sectors. In the case of biofuels, only 12 Member States developed a different methodology of what was suggested in the RED. One Member State (Sweden) applied both methodologies (own methodology and suggested RED methodology) and therefore reported two values for one sector. In such cases, the analysis for Sweden presented in this report used the methodology recommended by the RED. In several cases, the Member States did not report which methodology they applied: seven Member States did not report the methodology applied for electricity, heating and cooling and eight Member States did not report the methodology applied for biofuels. Table 1 shows which Member States followed the recommendations of the RED in order to calculate the biomass related GHG emission saving and whether they applied a different method. The table shows whether a description of the Member State s methodology was made available in the progress reports, as required. pp. 15
Table 1. EU Member State methodologies applied to calculate the net GHG emission savings from RE ELECTRICITY HEATING/COOLING TRANSPORT DESCRIPTION COM(2010) 11 MS METHOD COM(2010) 11 Y the methodology is described N the methodology is not described Y/N the methodology is partially described MS METHOD ANNEX V MS METHOD 1 st PR 2 nd PR BE N N BG Y Y CZ N N DK Y Y DE N N EE Y/N N IE Y Y EL Y Y ES N N FR Y Y HR n.a Y/N IT Y Y CY Y Y LV Y Y LT N N LU N N HU Y Y MT N N NL N/Y Y AT N N PL Y Y PT N N RO N Y SI N N SK Y/N Y/N FI Y Y SE Y Y UK Y/N Y/N The following section provides a short description of the methodologies 7 applied by each Member State to calculate their net GHG emission savings in electricity, heating/cooling and transport in 2009-12, where such methodologies were made available. 7 Disclaimer: The editing of this report includes also the description of methodologies used by each Member State to calculate the net GHG emission savings from the use of renewable energy in electricity, heating/cooling and transport sectors. Nevertheless these methodologies remained the Member States original one and authors cannot take any responsibility for the content of these descriptions. pp. 16
1.1 Belgium Belgium followed fully the methodology suggested in Article 22(2) of the RED applying the typical values from Annex V for transport and data from COM (2010) 11 for heat and cooling and electricity. 1.2 Bulgaria For biofuels, Bulgaria followed the methodology suggested in Annex V to the RED. GHG emission savings due to the use of heat from renewable sources were estimated by applying the comparative values, validated across the EU, as laid down in COM(2010) 11. Savings due to the use of electricity from renewable sources were estimated by applying a carbon emission factor for electricity, calculated on the basis of the fuel types, their calorific values and their proportion of annual electricity output in 2011 and 2012. The comparators used to calculate the GHG emission savings due to renewable energy use in Bulgaria during 2009-12 are presented in Table 2 together with the percentage of GHG emission savings. Table 2. Comparators used to calculate GHG emission savings in Bulgaria, 2009-12 2009 2010 2011 2012 % % % % Heating/cooling (gco2eq/mj) 87 87 87 87 Biomass (gco 2 eq/mj) 17.16 19.90 24.59 27.21 Electricity (tco 2 eq/mwh) 0.580 9.38 0.632 9.69 0.711 13.48 0.672 16.57 Transport (gco 2 eq/mj) 83.8 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 1.3 Czech Republic The Czech Republic did not provide a description of the methodology applied in its first and second progress reports. 1.4 Denmark The calculation of GHG emission savings due to the use of renewable energy in Denmark is based on the following assumptions: - In the case of renewable energy used for heating, the calculated net saving is 0.065 Mt CO 2 per PJ renewable energy used, corresponding to the renewable energy replacing a mixture of natural gas and oil typical of the Danish market. - In the case of renewable energy used for electricity, it was assumed that electricity generation by wind, water and solar panels displaces 2.4 units of fossil fuel, while one unit pp. 17
of biomass/biogas displaces 1 unit of fossil fuel. It was estimated that the quantity of fuel displaced would have given rise to CO 2 emissions of 0.08 Mt per PJ. - In the case of transport, it was assumed that one unit of biofuel displaces 1 unit of fossil fuel. It was estimated that the displaced quantity of fuel would have produced emissions of 0.0733 Mt CO 2 /PJ. Table 3. Comparators used to calculate GHG emission savings in Denmark, 2009-12 2009 2010 2011 2012 Heating/cooling (MtCO 2 eq/pj) 0.065 0.065 0.065 0.065 Electricity (MtCO 2 eq/pj) 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 Transport (MtCO 2 eq/pj) 0.0733 0.0733 0.0733 0.0733 1.5 Germany The methodology, data sources used and the technology-specific results for GHG avoidance through renewable energy are described in detail in 2011 and 2013 reports issued by the German Environment Agency (UBA). The GHG avoidance factors used in the calculations for 2009-12 are presented in the table below. Table 4. Comparators used to calculate GHG emission savings in Germany, 2009-12 Mt CO2 eq/pj 2009 2010 2011 2012 Electricity Hydropower 0.221 0.221 n.a n.a Wind power 0.204 0.204 n.a n.a Photovoltaic 0.189 0.189 n.a n.a Biogenic solid fuels 0.216 0.216 n.a n.a Biogenic liquid fuels 0.167 0.167 n.a n.a Biogas 0.164 0.162 n.a n.a Deep geothermal 0.136 0.136 n.a n.a Heating Biogenic solid fuels 0.084 0.083 n.a n.a Biogenic liquid fuels 0.076 0.073 n.a n.a Biogas 0.048 0.046 n.a n.a Solar thermal 0.062 0.062 n.a n.a Deep geothermal 0.018 0.018 n.a n.a Heat pumps 0.023 0.023 n.a n.a Transport Biodiesel 0.038 0.038 n.a n.a Vegetable oil 0.049 0.049 n.a n.a Bioethanol 0.040 0.040 n.a n.a pp. 18
1.6 Estonia Estonia reported data on GHG emission savings in its first progress report delivered in 2011, but not in its second report. In the first 2011 report, Estonia stated that a detailed calculation of GHG emission savings due to the use of energy from renewable sources had yet to be conducted in compliance with the RED. More specifically, Estonia at that time had has not yet conducted any of the required studies required for developing a method of assessment that takes into account the whole life-cycle (or at least part of it) and under the conditions prevalent in Estonia. For this reason, estimates provided in the 2011 report are based on the amounts of fuel used, their emission factors and data on the amounts of heat and electricity produced. Therefore, Estonia took into account neither the priority order for entering the electricity market with respect to fossil fuels nor the GHGs emitted during the life-cycle with respect to biomass were taken into account. It is worth noticing that 85% of non-renewable electricity produced in Estonia in 2010 originated from shale oil, a low efficiency resource that resulted very high GHG emissions per unit of electricity produced. In Estonia, most electricity (85 % in 2010) is produced from shale oil, which emits large quantities of carbon when burnt the specific emissions as carbon dioxide amount to 99.4 t CO 2 /TJfuel. As shale oil is also a low-efficiency method of generating electricity, the average specific emissions regarding electricity generated from oil shale are very high: 1085 kg CO2/MWhe. Emissions from shale oil accounted for 94 % of Estonia s total CO2 emissions from electricity generation. The emission factors for shale oil were determined as weighted average factors, taking into account the two combustion methods used: pulverised combustion and circulating fluidised bed combustion. As the proportion of other fuels used to generate electricity was rather small, the overall average specific emissions were high: 980 kg CO2/MWhe; if only fossil fuels were taken into account, the figure would be 1066 kg CO2/MWhe. 1.7 Ireland In both of its progress reports, Ireland provided a detailed description of the methodology it applied to calculate GHG emission savings due to the use of renewable energy in the three sectors. The estimate of avoided CO 2 emissions associated with biofuels usage in transport assumes 100 % displacement of emissions from conventional fuels. The emissions from biofuels production are accounted for in this analysis in accordance with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change reporting guidelines. Therefore, the CO 2 avoided from bioethanol in transport is supposed equal to the amount of CO 2 emissions that would have arisen from petrol consumption. Similarly, CO 2 avoided from biodiesel and pure plant oil (vegetable oil) is computed on the basis of the equivalent equated with diesel consumption. pp. 19
1.8 Greece Greece followed the methodology in Article 22(2) of the RED (Annex V) to calculate net GHG savings due to the use of renewable energy in transport. For electricity and heat the comparators weighted fossil fuel emission factors are estimated on the basis of the emission factors for liquid, solid and gaseous fossil fuels (as presented in the National Annual Inventory Report, submitted in 2009 and 2013 under the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol for greenhouse and other gases for the years 1990-2011). The estimation of GHG emissions in the aforementioned report was based on the methods described in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines, the IPCC Good Practice Guidance, the Land use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) Good Practice Guidance and the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme/European Environment Agency CORINAIR methodology. Table 5. Comparators used to calculate GHG emission savings in Greece, 2009-12 CO2 (t/tj) CH4(Kg/TJ) N2O(Kg/TJ) Electricity and heat production Liquid fuels 75.48 3.000 0.600 Solid fuels 126.12 1.000 1.500 Gaseous fuels 55.10 1.000 0.100 Manufacturing industries and construction Liquid fuels 67.51 1.024 0.730 Solid fuels 97.13 1.156 1.430 Gaseous fuels 55.24 1.000 0.735 Other sectors Liquid fuels 72.97 3.109 5.733 Solid fuels 99.18 1.156 1.500 Gaseous fuels 55.24 1.000 0.100 Transport Liquid fuels 70.72 13.370 2.925 Gaseous fuels 55.38 69.826 2.633 1.9 Spain Spain did not provide a description of the methodology it applied to estimate the net GHG emission savings in its progress reports. 1.10 France France applied its own methodology to calculate net GHG emission savings from the use of renewable energy. A detailed description is available in both its first and second progress pp. 20
reports. The methodology used for the 2009-10 calculations differs slightly from that used for 2011-12, and this influenced the results obtained for the two periods (see paragraph 2.2) 1.11 Croatia The reduction in GHG emissions in Croatia was determined by considering the production of electricity from renewable energy sources, renewable energy use in transport and the use of renewable energy for heating and cooling in 2011 and 2012. To determine the contribution of renewable energy sources, reducing GHG emissions, an estimate of what are called the avoided CO 2 emissions due to the use of renewable energy instead of fossil fuels. The avoided emissions are determined in such a way that the amount of electricity from renewable energy, energy, renewable energy for heating and cooling and energy from renewables in transport, replaced fossil fuels and for them a certain CO 2 emissions The sectoral perspective, in the production of electricity from RES, a comparison is made with fossil fuel power plants. For the budget is taken specific emissions from thermal power plants HEP-s. Avoided CO 2 emissions from transport are determined by the consumption of gasoline and diesel fuel. CO 2 emissions from the heating and cooling assume the use of fuel oil instead of renewable energy sources. 1.12 Italy In its second progress report, Italy updated the method used to calculate net GHG emission savings for 2009-10.The detailed estimate of RE-related net GHG emission savings has been based on a study prepared by GSE (Gestore Servizi Elettrici) for Italy s Ministry of Economic Development following Article 40 of Italian Legislative Decree No 28/2011. The second Italian progress report provides quite a detailed view of the mix of fossil fuels displaced in the three sectors by the different renewable technologies. 1.13 Cyprus GHG emission savings in Cyprus from the use of renewable energy in electricity and heating/cooling were calculated by the Department of the Environment of the Cypriot Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Environment, using its own methodology. The net GHG emission savings due to the use of biofuels in road transport were calculated as the difference between the emissions produced if the biofuel quantity was diesel and if the said quantity was a biodiesel mixture in specific proportions. The calculation was based on the typical GHG emission reduction values listed in parts A and B of Annex V to the RED. pp. 21
A very detailed description of the methodology applied by Cyprus to calculate GHG emission savings due to the use of renewable energy is presented in Annex I to Cyprus s first and second progress reports. 1.14 Latvia In order to calculate GHG emission saving due to the use of biofuels in transport, Latvia followed the "Annex V methodology" When calculating GHG emission savings from the use of renewable energy in heating and cooling, Latvia used a fossil fuel comparator of 87 g CO 2 /MJ, as suggested in COM (2010) 11. For electricity, Latvia assumed that the GHG emission factor for electricity from solar collectors, solar power plants and hydropower plants was zero. For GHG emission savings for energy from heat pumps, the quantity of electricity used to ensure the functioning of heat pumps (not reported separately) was also taken into account. The CO 2 emission factor for gross consumption of electricity from fossil fuels considering the cogeneration correction, was estimated at 0.235 t CO 2 /MWh in 2010. 1.15 Lithuania Lithuania did not provide any description of the methodology applied in its progress reports. 1.16 Luxembourg Luxembourg did not provide any description of the methodology applied in its progress reports and GHG emission savings from renewable electricity and heat were not split, but reported together. The two reports indicate in the Environment Agency s inventory of GHG emissions the data source for the calculations. 1.17 Hungary Hungary fully followed the methodology suggested in Article 22(2) of the RED, applying typical values from Annex V for transport and data from COM (2010) 11 for heating/cooling and electricity. 1.18 Malta Malta did not provide any description of the methodology applied in its progress reports. pp. 22
1.19 Netherlands The Netherlands applied its own methodology to calculate net GHG emission saving for 2009-12. A description of this methodology is available only in the Netherlands second progress report. For transport, the Netherlands calculated GHG emissions prevented by the consumption of biogasoline and biodiesel for transport in 2010 and 2012 using a combination of data taken from Statistics Netherlands energy statistics and data from the Dutch Emissions Authority (NEa) on the GHG performance of the biogasoline and biodiesel brought onto the market. The NEa received the data from companies that supply biogasoline and biodiesel in accordance with legislation and regulations on renewable energy for transport, on fuels and on air pollution. In 2010, the NEa also obtained data through voluntary agreements with sector associations. For 2011, the emissions avoided were calculated from the average reduction per unit of energy for biogasoline and biodiesel in 2010 and 2012, multiplied by the amount of biogasoline and biodiesel brought onto the market in 2011. The figures were extracted from the national energy statistics. For electricity, emissions avoided were based on a comparator considering a national mix of gas-fired, coal-fired and nuclear power stations with emissions of 0.59 kg CO2 per KWh in 2012. For heat, the main reference technology was a gas-fired boiler with 90 % efficiency, resulting in emissions of 63 kg CO2 per GJ of useful heat. 1.20 Austria Austria reported on GHG emission savings in both its first and second progress reports but it did not provide a description of its methodology. The data on the GHG emission reduction reported in the second progress report were based on the study Renewable energy in figures development of renewable energy in Austria in 2012. 8 1.21 Poland Poland fully followed the methodology suggested in Article 22(2) of the RED, applying typical values from Annex V for transport and data from COM (2010) 11 for heating/ cooling and electricity. 8 http://www.lebensministerium/at/umwelt/energie-erneuerbar/erneuerbare_zahlen.html. http://www.bmlfuw.gv.at/publikationen/umwelt/energie/energie_zahlen_2012.html. pp. 23
1.22 Portugal In its first and second progress reports, Portugal reported only the coefficients used to calculate its GHG emission saving from the use of renewable energy in electricity, heating/cooling and transport. Electricity: the emission factor used was different from the figure recommended by the Commission at COM (2010) 11 - (56.1 g CO 2 eq/mj); Heating/cooling: the emission factor recommended by the Commission was used - (87 g CO 2 eq/mj); Transport sector: a diesel emission factor different from the Annex V recommended figure was used - (74.1 g CO 2 eq/mj). 1.23 Romania In its first progress report, Romania did not provide a description of the methodology applied to calculate the net estimated reduction of GHG emissions. In its second report, Romania provided net GHG emission savings for 2011-12 based on the Romanian National Institute of Statistics energy balance sheets. The CO 2 equivalent emission savings for the production of electricity and of heat for heating/cooling were estimated using solid fuel (brown coal) as a comparator while savings obtained from using biomass in transport were estimated using diesel fuel as a benchmark. Specific Romanian emission factors were used equal to: 87.7 tco 2 eq/tj for brown coal and 73.56 t CO 2 eq/tj for diesel fuel. Factors were taken from the national inventory of GHG emissions (INEGES), sent in January 2014 to the European Environmental Agency and to the European Commission, for 2012. 1.24 Slovenia Slovenia did not provide a description of the methodology applied in its first and second progress reports. 1.25 Slovakia Slovakia calculated its net GHG emission savings from the use of energy from renewable sources for electricity and heating using reference values for fossil fuels for the whole of the EU. This was in line with COM (2010) 11. Slovakia did not provide a clear statement on its transport estimates. pp. 24
1.26 Finland Finland applied the methodology recommended in Article 22(2) of the RED (Annex V) in its estimates of net GHG emission savings due to the use of renewable energy in transport. To estimate the GHG emission savings due to the use of renewable energy in the electricity and heating/cooling sectors, Finland applied its own methodology as follows: For separate electricity production (hydro power, wind power, photovoltaic electricity and separate electricity production from bioenergy), the net savings were estimated using an emission coefficient of 0.0951 Mt CO 2 eq/pj, which corresponded to the average emission coefficient of Finland s separate condensate production based on fossil fuels. The consumption ratio of hydro power, wind power and photovoltaic electricity was assumed to be 2.4. For bioenergy, the fuel consumption ratio used in calculations was 1. In assessing the emissions reduction provided by bioenergy, biomass emissions were accounted for in accordance with Annex II to COM(2010) 11. In the calculation, heat pump energy and solar heat were replaced by separate fossil heat production. Net savings were estimated using an emission coefficient of 0.075 Mt CO 2 eq/pj, which corresponded to the average emission coefficient of Finland s separate heat production based on fossil fuels. For separate heat production based on bioenergy, the net savings were estimated using an emission coefficient of 0.074 Mt CO 2 eq/pj, which corresponded to the average emission coefficient of Finland s separate heat production based on fossil fuels and peat. The coefficient included the reduction in net savings by biomass emissions, for which a default value of 0.001 Mt CO 2 eq/pj was laid down in Annex II to COM(2010) 11. For combined electricity and heat production, the net savings were estimated using an emission coefficient of 0.081 Mt CO 2 eq/pj, which corresponded to the average emission coefficient of Finland s combined electricity and heat production based on fossil fuels and peat, minus biomass emissions as laid down in Annex II to COM(2010) 11. 1.27 Sweden Sweden estimated its net GHG emission savings from the use of renewable energy in electricity and heating/cooling sectors in two different ways: Case 1. GHG emission savings compared with a reference scenario where all renewable sources are replaced by fossil fuels. Potential theoretical savings were estimated by pp. 25
calculating the difference between emissions from the renewable energy sources 9 and their fossil comparators, where emission factors for the fossil comparators were based on the Commission s recommendations, which correspond to the fossil marginal production of electricity and heating. Case 2. GHG emission savings compared with a reference scenario where renewable sources for electricity and heating production are replaced with the average energy mix for electricity and heating production in 2009. The net savings were estimated by calculating the difference between the emissions from the renewable energy sources (as in Case 1) and the emissions for the fossil comparators represented by the emission factors 10 for Swedish electricity and district heating production mixes for 2009 (instead of emission factors for fossil production, as in Case 1). For biofuels, the Commission s recommendations, i.e. the emission savings specified in Annex V to the RED, 11 were used in both cases. For Case 1, only values for the fossil comparators were obtained from the Annex to which the RED refers. The emission factors for net emissions of GHGs from renewable fuels were obtained from elsewhere. 5 These emission factors were compiled from a life-cycle perspective and include all material emissions from raw materials recovery and production of the fuel to use and distribution. However, emissions from the use of the biofuel were set to zero. For all cases, the actual values (not normalised) for hydro and wind power were used in the estimates. For Case 2, the emission factor for the district heating mix was used as the fossil comparator for all heat production (that is, even for heat pumps and solar heating, etc.), which is a very simplified assumption. The emission factors used in this case represented the total GHG emissions (i.e. using the life-cycle perspective). The emission factors for the Swedish electricity and district heating production mix for 2009 would not be the same if, say, hydropower did not exist, but they give a picture of how the different calculation methods affect the results. 9 Gode, J et al., Environmental Fact Book 2011. Estimated emission factors for fuels, electricity, heating and transport in Sweden [Miljöfaktaboken 2011 Uppskattade emissionsfaktorer för bränslen, el, värme och transporter], Värmeforsk (Thermal Engineering Research Institute). 10 Approximately 25 g CO 2 equivalent/kwh for electricity and approximately 120 g CO 2 equivalent/kwh for heating. These emission factors come from: Martinsson, F and Gode, J 2011. Emission factors for the Swedish electricity mix and Swedish district heating in 2009 [Emissionsfaktorer för svensk elmix och svensk fjärrvärmemix år 2009]. IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute. Report produced for Article 22 reporting. Available from the Swedish Energy Agency. 11 For those biofuels whose production pathways are not specified in Annex V, assumptions were made concerning which value in Annex V best represents this pathway. Ethanol produced from pulp production and wine production residues was assumed to have the same value as ethanol from sugar cane. For ethanol from wheat, the highest typical value for ethanol from wheat was used. pp. 26
We used the data in Case 1 for the analysis in our report. Some information on GHG emission savings in the EU using the data of Case 2 is included in the footnotes in the respective sessions. 1.28 United Kingdom The United Kingdom calculated its net GHG savings from electricity using the average CO 2 emissions factor for the fossil fuel mix for that year, as published in Table 5C in Chapter 5 of the Digest of UK Energy Statistics, 2013. 12 Net direct GHG savings for transport were calculated using the carbon intensity data reported by suppliers for the fuel supplied. This includes a mix of RED Annex V default values and actual data calculated by fuel suppliers using guidance published by the Department of Transport in line with Annex V. 12 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/electricity-chapter-5-digest-of-united-kingdom-energy-statisticsdukes pp. 27
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Chapter 2. Trend for GHG emissions in Europe (1990-12) In this section, we report and discuss data on total GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) [12] and energy-related GHG emission changes and provide continental values and sectoral and country-based breakdowns. In the text below, we use the expressions GHG emission reductions to mean the difference between the GHG emissions for the reference year (1990) and the actual emissions for a certain year, country or sector. The analysis in this section covers the period 1990-2012 and focuses on: the state of GHG emissions in Europe (totals and per capita); the state of energy-related GHG emissions in Europe (energy including transport, public power and heat, transport); the contribution of energy-related GHG emissions to the total GHG emissions in Europe; and an overview of GHG emissions by Member State. 2.1 Overall GHG emissions EU trends GHG emissions in the EU in 1990 were 5 626.3 Mt CO 2 eq. In 2009, GHG emissions were 4 642 Mt CO 2 eq. In 2010, the figure increased by 2.3 % (+107 Mt CO 2 eq). 105 100 95 90 85 80 75-19.2% -22.2% 70 Figure 1. GHG emissions in EU since 1990 (1990=100 %) For 2010-11, GHG emissions in the EU fell by 3.1 % (-143 Mt CO 2 eq), reaching 4606 Mt CO 2 eq in 2011. Between 2011 and 2012, GHG emissions in the EU decreased further by 1.3 % (60 Mt CO 2 eq), reaching 4 546 Mt CO 2 eq. pp. 29
Over the period 2009-12, GHG emissions were 17.5 % (984 Mt CO 2 eq) and 19.2 % (1 080 Mt CO 2 eq) below the base year level. Total EU emissions [13] (excluding LULUCF) are projected (based on latest Member State projections) to be 22.2 % lower in 2020 compared with 1990 (Figure 1). 2.2 Overview of energy-related GHG emissions in Europe (1990-12) In 1990, energy 13 -related GHG emissions in Europe accounted for 77 % of total GHG emissions, with a figure of 4 324.6 Mt CO 2 eq. Between 1990 and 2009, energy-related GHG emissions decreased by 15 % (646.6 Mt CO 2 eq), but their contribution to total GHG emissions increased to 79.2 %. 23.1% 76.9% 25.5% 13.9% 37.4% 20.7% 79.3% 27.0% 19.6% 32.7% Non-Energy Transport Power & Heat Other Energy Non-Energy Transport Power & Heat Other Energy Figure 2. Contribution of energy sectors to the total GHG emissions in EU, 1990 (left) 2012 (right) In 2009-10, energy-related GHG emissions increased by 2.9 % (+105 Mt CO 2 eq) before falling in 2012 to a level that was 4.7 % (147 Mt CO 2 eq) lower than the 2010 figure. The contribution of these GHG emissions to the total GHG emissions in the EU changed only slightly between 2009 and 2012, rising from 79.2 % to 79.3 %. GHG emissions from public power and heat production amounted to 1 436.7 Mt CO 2 eq in 1990. This represented 25.5 % of total GHG emissions in that year and 33.1 % of energy-related GHG emissions. In 2012, the contribution of GHG emissions from public power and heat to total GHG emissions reached 1 225.2 Mt CO 2 eq (27 %) and accounted for 34 % of energy-related GHG emissions. 13 GHG emissions related to energy include GHG emissions from transport. pp. 30
In 1990, GHG emissions from transport amounted to 782.6 Mt CO 2 eq, or 33.2 % of total GHG emissions from energy (including transport). The figure accounted for 13.9 % of total GHG emissions released that year. In 2012, GHG emissions from transport were 14 % higher (110.5 Mt CO 2 eq) than the 1990 level. They accounted for 19.6 % of total GHG emissions and 24.8 % of GHG energy-related emissions. 2.3 Overview of GHG emissions by Member State In 1990, GHG emissions in per capita terms were 11.8 Mt CO 2 eq/capita. In 2012 the figure was 9 Mt CO 2 eq/capita. Only eight Member States (Ireland, Greece, Spain, Cyprus, Malta, Austria, Portugal and Slovenia) increased their GHG emissions between 1990 and 2012 (see Figure 3). Germany, the United Kingdom, Romania, France and Poland were the five best performing countries in terms of reducing their GHG emissions during that period. Together, they accounted for almost 71 % (767 Mt CO 2 eq) of the total GHG emissions reduction. Germany had the highest GHG emissions reduction during this period, achieving a reduction of 309 Mt CO 2 eq, followed by the United Kingdom, which reduced GHG emissions by 194.5 Mt CO 2 eq. For the 2009-12 period, the GHG emissions reduction was somewhat different from the picture above, which shows the situation for 1990-2012. This was because GHG emissions in Germany and Poland increased during 2009-12 (Figure 4). Between 2009 and 2012, the five best-performing Member States in terms of reducing their GHG emissions were Italy (-30 Mt CO 2 ), Spain (-19 Mt CO 2 ), France (-19 Mt CO 2 ), Greece (-13 Mt CO 2 ) and Denmark (-9 Mt CO 2 ). Together, they accounted for 95.7 % of the reduction. Only five Member States (Bulgaria, Germany, Estonia, Lithuania and Poland) increased their energy-related GHG emissions (including transport) between 1990 and 2012. There was no change in the energy-related GHG emissions (including transport) of Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta and Slovenia during that period. All other Member States decreased their GHG emissions from energy (including transport). Almost two thirds of GHG emissions from energy (including transport) came from five Member States (Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, France and Poland). Those countries maintained the same level of contribution and their position in the ranking in 1990 and 2012. pp. 31
In 2012, Germany had the highest GHG emissions from energy with 786 Mt CO 2 eq. Germany also had the highest absolute reduction, achieving a reduction of 233 Mt CO 2 eq (23 %) from the 1990 level. Malta had the lowest level of GHG energy-related emissions in both 1990 (1.9 Mt CO 2 eq) and 2012 (2.8 Mt CO 2 eq). In 2012, the five Member States that recorded the highest level of GHG energy-related emissions in per capita terms were Luxembourg (20 t CO 2 eq/capita), followed by Estonia (12.7 t CO 2 eq/capita), the Czech Republic (10.2 t CO 2 eq/capita), Germany (9.8 t CO 2 eq/capita) and the Netherlands (9.7 t CO 2 eq/capita). Ten Member States (Ireland, Greece, Spain, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Croatia, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal and Finland) increased their GHG emissions from public power and heat production between 1990 and 2012. In 1990, more than two thirds of the emissions came from just five Member States: Germany, Poland, the United Kingdom, Italy and Romania. In 2012, the picture is almost the same, with the only change being that fifth place was taken over by Spain. Germany had the highest absolute level of GHG emissions from public power and heat in both 1990 and 2012: 314 Mt CO 2 eq in 1990 and 334 Mt CO 2 eq in 2012. Poland was second, but also achieved the highest reduction in this type of emission between 1990 and 2012, having reduced emissions to 161 Mt CO 2 eq, a decrease of 67.6 Mt CO 2 eq compared with the 1990 level. In per capita terms, Estonia had the highest GHG emissions from public power and heat production, with a figure of 9.6 t CO 2 eq/capita. The Czech Republic had the second highest, with 5.0 t CO 2 eq/capita, followed by Malta (4.9 t CO 2 eq/capita), Greece (4.6 t CO 2 eq/capita) and Poland (4.2 t CO 2 eq/capita). Only seven Member States (Germany, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Sweden and the United Kingdom) emitted less GHG from transport in 2012 than in 1990. In 1990, more than 70 % of GHG emissions from transport came from five Member States: Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain (Figure 5). In 2012, the ranking did not change, but the five countries contribution to the overall figure decreased to 66 %. In 2012, Luxembourg had the highest value in per capita terms, recording 12.4 t CO 2 eq/capita, followed by Slovenia (2.8 t CO 2 eq/capita), Austria (2.6 t CO 2 eq/capita), Cyprus (2.4 t CO 2 eq/capita) and Ireland (2.4 t CO 2 eq/capita). pp. 32
Figure 3. Changes in total GHG emissions in EU MS, (1990-2012) left - (2009-12) right
Figure 4. GHG emissions from energy in EU MS, totals (left) per capita (right), 2012
Figure 5. GHG emissions from power and heat in EU MS, totals (left) per capita (right), 2012 pp. 35
Figure 6. GHG emissions from transport in EU MS, totals (left) per capita (right), 2012 pp. 36
Chapter 3. GHG emission savings from renewable energy use in the EU (2009-12) In this section, we will present data on GHG emission savings arising from renewable energy use. The data were taken from Member States official progress reports, where these were available. The analysis focused on the following: changes (increases or decreases) in GHG emission savings from renewable energy deployment in EU (totals and per capita); the contribution of GHG emission savings to the total GHG emissions in the EU; the contribution of GHG emission savings from renewable energy use in electricity and heating/cooling to the total GHG emissions from public power and heat; the contribution of GHG emission savings from renewable energy use in transport to the total GHG emissions from transport; an overview of GHG emission savings in each Member State. We use the term GHG emission savings/reductions due to renewable energy use to indicate the GHG emission savings obtained specifically through the introduction of renewable energy. 3.1 GHG emission savings and renewable energy trend in the EU 3.1.1 Trend for GHG emission savings Renewable energy was increasingly deployed in the EU between 2009 and 2012 in all of the three main energy consumption sectors (electricity, heating/cooling and transport). As a result, it has had an increasingly positive effect on the trend in GHG emissions. 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Mt CO2 eq 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Figure 7. Annual change in total GHG emission savings in EU, 2009-12
In 2009, the net GHG emission savings due to renewable energy use in the EU 14 were estimated at almost 529.4 Mt CO 2 eq. In the four years to 2012, this figure increased by almost 35 % (186.5 Mt CO 2 eq). Additional GHG emission savings in 2009-10 and 2010-11 were almost equal, at nearly 60 Mt CO 2 eq. The highest additional GHG emission savings of the period were in 2011-12. In 2009, the net GHG emission savings due to the use of renewable energy in the EU accounted for nearly 10.2 % of its GHG emissions. By 2012, the figure had increased to more than 13 %. The proportion of GHG emission savings compared with the total energy-related GHG emissions increased from 12.69 % in 2009 to nearly 17 % in 2012. 19.7% 13.7% 25.5% 12.5% 65.0% 35.0% 60.1% 39.9% 1.6% 1.9% Non RES reduction RES_HC_savings RES_E_savings RES_T_savings Non RES reduction RES_HC_savings RES_E_savings RES_T_savings Figure 8. Contribution of GHG emission savings from RES to the net GHG emission reductions in EU, 2009 (left) and 2012 (right) Over the same period, the proportion of net GHG emission savings due to renewable energy use in the net reduction of GHG emissions in the EU increased from 35 % in 2009 to nearly 40 % in 2012, demonstrating the increasing role of renewable energy in EU GHG savings. In per capita terms, GHG emission savings increased from 1.05 Mt CO 2 eq/capita in 2009 to 1.42 Mt CO 2 eq/capita in 2012. 3.1.2 Renewable energy trend Renewable energy consumption in the EU reached almost 160 Mtoe (6 677 PJ) in 2012, contributing 14.17 % of the EU's gross final energy consumption. However, in 2010 and 2011 renewable energy deployment followed a different trend from that for GHG emission savings. This was because most Member States decided to develop and apply their own 14 Calculations using Sweden s Case 2 gave GHG emission savings in the EU of 459 Mt CO2 eq in 2009 and 631.4 Mt CO 2 eq in 2012. pp. 38
methodology to calculate GHG savings instead of using the methodology suggested by the Commission. 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Mtoe -5 0 5 10 15 20 Figure 9. Annual change of total RES consumption in EU, 2009-12 If we look at the years 2009 to 2012 as a whole, we can see that the highest additional consumption of renewable energy in the EU was in 2009-10, while in 2010-11 the trend in additional consumption was negative. 3.2 GHG emission savings and renewable energy by sector In 2012, GHG emission savings due to the use of renewable energy were mainly from electricity and heating/cooling: those sectors accounted for more than 95 % of the total GHG emission savings for that year. 64% 31.3% 4.7% RES-E RES-H/C RES-T Figure 10. Contribution of RES sectors to GHG emission saving due to RES in EU, 2012 pp. 39
RES-E RES H/C RES-T GHG emission savings from the use of renewable energy for heating/cooling fell in 2010-11 (see Figure 12 below). 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 -40-20 0 20 40 60 80 Mt CO2 eq Figure 11. Annual change in net GHG emission savings due to RE in EU, 2009-12 The highest additional GHG emission savings were for electricity in 2010-11. During the same period the additional GHG emission savings for heating/cooling were negative. GHG emission savings in transport sector had the highest additional contribution during 2010-11. Renewable energy consumed for heating/cooling and electricity accounted for nearly 92 % of total renewable energy consumption in the EU. 51.5% 40.2% RES-H/C RES-E RES-T 8.3% Figure 12. Contribution of RES sectors to total RE consumption in EU, 2012 In 2009-12, renewable energy consumption followed the same trend as GHG emission savings in electricity and heating/cooling, but for transport the trends were different due to pp. 40
RES-E RES-H/C RES-T the fact that some Member States didn't report on biofuels use in transport sector because they don't fulfil the sustainability criteria as required in Article 17 of the RED. 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Mtoe -4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Figure 13. Annual change in RES by sector in EU, 2009-12 3.2.1 Electricity The main contributor to GHG emission savings from renewable energy sources was electricity. In 2009, it accounted for 56.3 % (298 Mt CO 2 eq) of total GHG emission savings due to renewable electricity deployment in the EU. 15 In 2012, the figure was 64 % (458 Mt CO 2 eq). Electricity s contribution to the total net GHG emissions reduction was 19.7 % in 2009 and 25.5 % in 2012. In 2009-12, additional GHG emission savings as a result of renewable electricity rose by 160.2 Mt CO 2 eq, with an average annual growth rate of 18 %. The trend replicated the upward trend in the development of renewable electricity sources in Europe: in 2012, RES production was 6.5 % higher than its 2009 level. The GHG emission savings provided by renewable electricity increased from 0.6 t CO 2 eq/capita in 2009 to 0.9 t CO 2 eq/capita in 2012. 3.2.2 Heating/cooling In 2009, the heating/cooling sector 16 accounted for 39.1 % of total GHG emission savings, recording a figure of 207 Mt CO 2 eq. Although overall GHG emissions saved from the use of 15 Using Sweden s Case 2, GHG emission savings from renewable electricity in the EU were 245.4 Mt CO 2 eq in 2009 and 392.6 Mt CO 2 eq in 2012. 16 Using Sweden s Case 2, GHG emission savings from renewable heat in the EU were 189 Mt CO 2 eq in 2009 and 205 Mt CO 2 eq in 2012. pp. 41
renewable energy for heating/cooling rose by 8.2 % (+17 Mt CO 2 eq) between 2009 and 2012, their relative share in the total GHG emission savings decreased to 31.3 %. In absolute terms, GHG emission savings decreased by nearly 10 % in 2011 compared with 2010. In 2012, savings increased by 6.4 %, reaching 224 Mt CO 2 eq. GHG emission savings remained unchanged at 0.4 t CO 2 eq/capita throughout the period. The development of renewable energy sources for heating/cooling followed a similar trend in 2009-12. In 2010 it rose by 16 % compared with 2009, fell by 3.3 % in 2011 and rose again by 6 % in 2012. 3.2.3 Transport The absolute level of GHG emission savings due to renewable energy use in the transport sector increased continuously from 2009 to 2012, rising at an average rate of 2.1 % per year from 24.4 Mt CO 2 eq in 2009 to 33.8 Mt CO 2 eq in 2012. The proportion of GHG emission savings in the transport sector rose from 5.3 % in 2009 to 5.9 % in 2011 and then fell back to 5.3 % in 2012. Renewable energy use in this sector developed following a different trend in 2010-11, decreasing by 4 % (3 513 ktoe). Due to the requirements of Article 17 of the RED relating to sustainability criteria for biofuels and bioliquids, some Member States did not report on the use in transport of biofuels that did not fulfil the criteria. It is not clear from the first and second progress reports whether biofuels that did not fulfil the above-mentioned criteria were taken into account when calculating the GHG emission savings from this sector. The GHG emission savings due to renewable energy used in transport increased from 50 kg CO 2 eq/capita in 2009 to 70 kg CO 2 eq/capita in 2012. 3.3 Overview by Member State We set out below an overview of the Member States contribution to the total net GHG emission saving for 2009-12 due to renewable energy use in three sectors: electricity, heating/cooling and transport. 3.3.1 Contribution to energy-related GHG emissions In 2009, the use of renewable energy in electricity and heating/cooling accounted for almost 30 % of GHG emissions from public power and heat production, recording a saving of 505 Mt pp. 42
CO 2 eq. In 2012, the figure rose to 682.2 Mt CO 2 eq, accounting for nearly 36 % of GHG emissions from these two sectors. GHG emissions P+H GHG saving E+H 2012 2011 2010 2009 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Figure 14. Contribution of GHG savings from RES-E+H/C to GHG emissions P+H in EU, 2009-12 In 2012 Germany had the highest savings of GHG emissions from renewable electricity and heat consumption, with a figure of 139 Mt CO 2 eq. This accounted for 29.4 % of the GHG emission savings from Germany s public power and heat sectors. Sweden 17 was in second place, recording savings of 97 Mt CO 2 eq from renewable electricity and heat. With this savings Sweden recorded the highest contribution to its total GHG emissions from public power and heat, posting a figure of 92.7 %. In 2012, Austria had the second highest contribution, with GHG emission savings from renewable energy in electricity and heating/cooling accounting for 75.7 % (28 Mt CO 2 eq) of its total GHG emissions from public power and heat. In per capita terms, Sweden had the highest savings from renewable electricity and heat with 10.2 t CO 2 eq, followed by Finland with 7.5 Mt CO 2 eq/capita and Austria with 3.38 Mt CO 2 eq/capita. GHG emission savings from the use of renewable energy in transport had a low contribution to the total GHG emissions from this sector, with the figures ranging from 2.5 % in 2009 to 3.6 % in 2012 (Figure 17). Austria had the highest contribution to the savings of GHG emissions in transport with 6.9 % (1.6 Mt CO 2 eq). It was followed by Spain and Sweden, which recorded 6.8 % each. 17 Using Case 2 calculations, Sweden ranked fifth with GHG emission savings from renewable electricity and heat accounting for 62 % of its total GHG emissions from public power and heat. pp. 43
Figure 15. GHG emission savings from RES (E+H/C) in EU MS, 2012 GHG emissions T GHG saving T 2012 2011 2010 2009 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Figure 16. Contribution of GHG savings from RES-T to GHG emissions from transport in EU, 2009-12 pp. 44
CAGR 2009-2012 (%) 3.3.2 Contribution to total GHG emission savings In Germany and the UK, renewable energy s contribution to GHG emission savings accounted for almost 35 % of the countries total reduction in GHG emissions between 1990 and 2012. 140 MT 120 100 80 60 SI 40 UK 20 BG FR PL CY DK ES IT DE 0 SK RO FI SE PT -20 0 LV 20 AT 40 60 80 100 120 140 160-20 LT -40 GHG savings (Mt CO2 eq),2012 Figure 17. Compound annual growth rate of GHG emission savings in EU MS, 2009-12 Only four Member States (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Portugal) produced reduced savings in GHG emissions due to renewable energy use between 2009 and 2012. Lithuania had the largest decrease in GHG emission savings during this period, with -2.7 Mt CO 2 eq. The five best performing Member States with the highest additional GHG emission savings due to renewable energy use between 2009 and 2012 were France (+40.6 Mt CO 2 eq), Germany (38 Mt CO 2 eq), the United Kingdom (+19 Mt CO 2 eq), Italy (+14.8 Mt CO 2 eq) and Poland (+9.3 Mt CO 2 eq). These five accounted for 70.6 % of the additional GHG emission savings in the EU in 2009-12. The fastest growth in GHG emission savings between 2009 and 2012 took place in Malta, which recorded a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 128.8 %. However, the absolute value of Malta s savings was very low. Slovenia recorded the second highest CAGR of 54 %, followed by the UK with 39 %, France with 25.4 % and Belgium with 20.4 %. Germany and Sweden had the highest GHG emission savings during this period, saving 107 Mt CO 2 eq and 84 Mt CO 2 eq respectively in 2009 and 145 Mt CO 2 eq and 98 Mt CO 2 eq in 2012. According to the aggregated first and second progress reports, almost two thirds of total GHG emission savings in the EU in 2012 came from renewable energy growth in five countries: Germany (144.5 MtCO 2 eq), Sweden (98 Mt CO 2 eq), France (82.4 Mt CO 2 eq), Italy (70.94 Mt CO 2 eq) and Spain (56.86 Mt CO 2 eq). pp. 45
CAGR 2009-2012 (%) In 2012, Finland had the highest GHG emission savings per capita with 7.6 Mt CO 2 eq/capita, followed by Austria with 3.6 Mt CO 2 /capita, Denmark with 2.8 Mt CO 2 eq/capita, Slovenia with 2.3 Mt CO 2 eq/capita and Latvia with 2.2 Mt CO 2 eq/capita. The picture for the change in renewable energy consumption from 2009 to 2012 was slightly different. This is because some Member States, such as Slovenia 18 and Romania, 19 reported positive additional GHG emission savings due to renewable energy, but consumed less renewable energy over that period. Italy 20 had the highest additional renewable energy consumption between 2009 and 2012 but was fourth in terms of additional GHG emission savings. France 21 had the highest additional GHG emission savings but was fourth in terms of additional renewable energy consumption over the same period. Only Germany 13 held into second place on both lists. Malta recorded the fastest development of renewable energy consumption between 2009 and 2012, but its contribution to the overall figure remained very small. The Member States with highest development of renewable energy were Germany, France, Sweden, Italy and Spain. Renewable energy consumption in Portugal decreased in 2009-12 and this was reflected in a decrease of GHG emission savings over the same time span. Latvia and Lithuania increased their renewable energy consumption but did not achieve any additional savings in GHG emissions. 50 MT 40 30 20 BE BG IT 10CY EL UK DK PL LU DE SK NL FI SE FR 0 AT LV ES RO -5 0 SI 5 10 15 20 25 30 PT -10 RES (Mtoe) Figure 18. Compound annual growth rate of total RES in EU MS, 2009-12 18 Slovenia did not describe the methodology it applied to calculate the GHG emission savings resulting from the use of renewable energy. 19 Romania applied its own methodology to calculate GHG emission savings resulting from the use of renewable energy. 20 Italy applied its own methodology to calculate GHG emission savings resulting from the use of renewable energy. 21 France and Germany applied their own methodologies to calculate GHG emission savings resulting from the use of renewable energy. pp. 46
CAGR 2009-2012 (%) In 2009-12, the use of renewable energy in the production of electricity resulted in lower additional savings of GHG emissions in only two Member States: Hungary and Lithuania. Just three Member States accounted for almost 64 % of additional GHG emission savings from the consumption of renewable electricity from 2009 to 2012: France had the highest additional GHG emission savings during this period, with +50.5 Mt CO 2 eq, followed by Germany with +33 Mt CO 2 eq and the United Kingdom with +18.9 Mt CO 2 eq. The Member States that saved the largest proportion of GHG emissions in 2012 were Germany (102 Mt CO 2 eq), Sweden (67 Mt CO 2 eq), France (56.4 Mt CO 2 eq), Italy (47.8 Mt CO 2 eq) and Spain (37.6 Mt CO 2 eq). Together they accounted for 60 % of the total GHG emission savings from the consumption of renewable electricity. Malta had the fastest increase in 2009-12, with a CAGR of 467.8 %, but its contribution in absolute values remained very small. Cyprus had the second largest CAGR for the same period, recording a figure of 103.8 %, but, like Malta, its contribution was very small. In per capita terms, Sweden had the highest savings of GHG, recording a figure of 7.1 Mt CO 2 eq. It was followed by Finland with 3.1 t CO 2 eq/capita, Austria with 2.2 t CO 2 eq/capita and Slovenia with 1.5 t CO 2 eq/capita. 500 MT 400 300 200 100 CY FR UK PL 0PT SK DE FI AT ES IT SE -20 RO 0 20 40 60 80 100 120-100 GHG savings from RES-E (Mt CO2 eq) Figure 19. Compound annual growth rate of GHG savings from RES-E in EU MS, 2009-12 In Malta and Cyprus, there was a very fast increase in the consumption of renewable electricity. The two countries recorded CAGRs of 215.4 % and 103.4 % respectively. In Member States such as Romania, Slovenia and Finland, the consumption of renewable electricity followed a downward trend, but this was not reflected in savings of GHG emissions. pp. 47
CAGR 2009-2012 (%) In the heating and cooling sector, five Member States reported lower GHG emission savings between 2009 and 2012: France, Latvia, Lithuania, Austria and Portugal. Due to France s use of two different methodologies in its two progress reports, its GHG emission savings due to renewable energy use on heating and cooling in 2009-10 were almost double its GHG emission savings for 2011-12. France actually recorded a slight slowdown in renewable energy consumption on heating and cooling in 2011 compared with 2010, as the figure almost returned to its 2009 level. In 2012, the use of renewable energy in heating/cooling sector in France increased and the GHG emission savings followed the same trend. Italy had the highest additional GHG emission savings in heating and cooling between 2009 and 2012, with +5.5 Mt CO 2 eq, followed by Germany with +4 Mt CO 2 eq. The two Member States accounted for almost 60 % of the additional GHG emission savings from renewable heat/cool during that period. The largest GHG emissions savers in 2012 were Germany (37.2 Mt CO 2 eq), Finland (24 Mt CO2eq), Italy (20.5 Mt CO 2 eq), France (19.9 Mt CO 2 eq) and Poland (18.5 Mt CO 2 eq). Their contribution accounted for 58.4 % of the total GHG emission saving from the use of renewable energy in heating and cooling. 80 60 MT 40 BE 20 BG SI EL DK IT CY HU RO PL 0 SK FI DE AT ES SE -5 PT 0 LV 5 10 15 FR 20 25 30 35 40-20 -40-60 LT GHG savings RES-H/C (Mt CO2 eq) Figure 20. Compound annual growth rate of GHG savings from RES-H/C in EU MS, 2009-12 Malta had the fastest increase between 2009 and 2012, recording a CAGR of 58 %. Lithuania reported a decrease in savings of GHG, with a CAGR of -46.4 %. pp. 48
In per capita terms, Finland recorded the highest GHG emission savings due to renewable heat with 3.8 t CO 2 eq/capita in 2009 and 4.4 t CO 2 eq/capita in 2012. Sweden recorded the second highest figure, with 3.1 t CO 2 eq/capita in 2009 and 3.2 t CO 2 eq/capita in 2012. The situation concerning renewable heat consumption was different for France, Spain, Austria and Lithuania, which reported an increase between 2009 and 2012. Malta had the fastest increase in renewable heat consumption, with a CAGR of 32.2 %. Italy recorded the next fastest increase, recording a CAGR of 18 %. Ten Member States recorded a CAGR for their growth in GHG emission savings that was higher than the CAGR for renewable heat consumption over the same time span (2009-12). France had the highest GHG emission savings (6.16 Mt CO 2 eq) due to renewable energy use in transport, followed by Spain with 5.89 Mt CO 2 eq, Germany with 5.60 Mt CO 2 eq, Poland with 3.08 Mt CO 2 eq and Italy with 2.67 Mt CO 2 eq. Eight Member States (Ireland, France, Hungary, the Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia) produced lower savings of GHG emissions from renewable energy use in transport between 2009 and 2012. Spain had the highest savings of GHG emissions between 2009 and 2012 with 2.3 Mt CO 2 eq, followed by Austria with 1.8 Mt CO 2 eq and Germany with 1.0 Mt CO 2 eq. Luxembourg had the highest savings in per capita terms, with 0.28 t CO 2 eq/capita, followed by Austria (0.19 t CO 2 eq/capita), Sweden (0.15 t CO 2 eq/capita), Spain (0.13 t CO 2 eq/capita) and Denmark (0.11 t CO 2 eq/capita). Malta and Lithuania had the highest positive CAGRs between 2009 and 2012, recording figures of 78.7 % and 78.4 % respectively. Portugal reported the highest negative CAGR (-57.5 %) in GHG emission savings from renewable energy use in transport during this period and it recorded also a negative CAGR even for renewable energy development. The trend for the use of biofuels in transport over the same period was different from that for GHG emission savings. Nine Member States (Bulgaria, Estonia, Greece, Spain, Hungary, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and the United Kingdom) reduced their use of biofuels in transport between 2009 and 2012. pp. 49
CAGR 2009-2012 (%) Between 2009 and 2012 Greece and Spain s reduced use of biofuels was not reflected in GHG emission savings, the latter increasing over the same time span. 100 80 LT MT 60 40 EL 20 LV FI SE ES IT PL CY BG 0 SI HU NL UK DE FR -1 0SK -20 BE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 IE -40-60PT -80 GHG savings RES-T (Mt CO2 eq) Figure 21. Compound annual growth rate of GHG savings from RES-E in EU MS, 2009-12 Belgium, Ireland, France, Slovenia and Slovakia reported lower GHG savings from the use of renewable energy in transport between 2009 and 2012. However, over the same time period the five countries reported an increase in the use of biofuels in transport sector. Denmark had the highest CAGR in biofuels growth during 2009-12 with 183 %. However, Denmark s increase in GHG savings was very low, at only 0.6 Mt CO 2 eq. pp. 50
Figure 22. GHG emission savings in EU MS, changes 2009-12(left) 2012 (right)
Figure 23. Changes in RE consumption in EU MS, 2009-12
Figure 24. GHG emission savings from RES-E in EU MS, 2009-12 22 (left) 2012(right) 22 The marked increase in GHG emission savings due to renewable electricity in France was caused by the fact that France used two different methodologies to calculate the savings in its two biannual progress reports.
Figure 25. GHG emission savings due to RES-H/C in EU MS, changes 2009-12(left) 2012(right)
Figure 26. GHG emission savings due to RES T in EU MS, changes 2009-12(left) 2012 (right)
3.4 Economic benefits of GHG emission savings We present below an estimate of the economic benefits of GHG emission savings due to renewable energy use in the EU. The estimate is based on the average carbon price in the EU, taken from EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). Despite its regional character, the ETS is a landmark and its price serves as a signal for the global carbon market. It covers almost 45 % of total GHG emissions from the EU Member States. Six Member States (Denmark, Ireland, France, Finland, Sweden and the United Kingdom) have implemented or are planning to implement an ETS and carbon tax scheme. The other Member States have already implemented or are planning to implement an ETS scheme. The EU carbon market peaked at a price close to EUR 30/t in the middle of 2008 and has never returned to that level. After that date, the EU price went into freefall. The collapse was exacerbated by the start of the global economic crisis and the price fell to as low as EUR 8-9/tonne. The carbon price fell sharply at the beginning of February 2009, when the compliance date for 2008 was approaching and the emissions data for that year became available, revealing the effects of the crisis. The price stabilised at around EUR 12-14 for about two years, before dropping to about EUR 7 at the beginning of 2012. In 2012, it fluctuated between EUR 6 and EUR 9/tonne. At the end of the scheme s second phase it stood at just below EUR 6.5/t [15]. Figure 27. Carbon price evolution in EU, 2008-12 [16] According to the working document prepared for the Proposal for a Decision of the European Parliament and of the Council concerning the establishment and operation of a pp. 56
Billion Euro market stability reserve for the European Union greenhouse gas emission trading scheme and amending Directive 2003/87/EC, carbon prices in the ETS dropped from around EUR 30/t of CO 2 to EUR 13.09/t in 2010 and then to EUR 11.45/t in 2011, reaching an average global carbon price of around EUR 5.82/t in 2012 [17]. The following calculations are based on an average carbon price of EUR 14/t for 2009. Although GHG emission savings due to the use of renewable energy increased between 2009 and 2012, the economic benefit from emission savings decreased from EUR 74.1 billion in 2009 to EUR 47.1 billion in 2012. A peak was reached in 2010, when the benefit from emission savings reached EUR 76.8 billion. 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 Figure 28. Economic benefits of GHG emission savings from renewable energy use in EU, 2009-12 pp. 57
pp. 58
Conclusions The European Union must decarbonise its energy system to reach its climate change goal. In the 20-20-20 climate and energy framework the EU has set a 20% reduction target on greenhouse gases, an energy savings by at least 20% and an increase to 20% of renewable energy share by 2020 which was then translated into binding national targets embedded in the 2009 Renewable Energy Directive and governed through tools as NREAPs and bi-annual progress reports. According to European Council the share of renewable energy sources in gross final energy consumption should reach at least 27% by 2030. Setting up the 20% target for greenhouse gas emissions reduction up to 2020 drove an increase in renewable energy share in the EU, from 8.5% in the baseline year to 11.9% in 2009 and furthermore to 14.1% in 2012, a development that was accompanied by an increase by 8.8% each year in greenhouse gas emission savings in the EU. Use of renewable energy in electricity and heating/cooling sectors resulted to have the highest contribution in climate change mitigation in EU especially due to the fast penetration of new technologies as wind and photovoltaics. In 2012 the contribution of these two sectors in the gross final energy consumed in the EU was more than 92% bringing to almost 95% of contribution in the net GHG emission savings in the EU due to renewable energy used in all sectors. The transport sector is expected to provide a 10% contribution in gross final energy consumption up to 2020. Up to 2012 renewable energy use in this sector doesn t developed at the expected level in some Member States especially due to the difficulties in fulfilling the sustainability criteria established at Article 17 of the RED. For this reason some Member States didn t report on biofuels used in transport sector remaining out of the contribution this sector had in the net GHG emission savings in the EU which count for only 4.7% of this net savings. A switch from fossil fuels to renewables in energy mix is feasible in response to carbon price which need to stay above a certain level. An effective carbon-price signal could realise significant mitigation potential in all sectors. What was experienced during last years was that carbon price in EU fell sharply from nearly EUR 30/t in 2008 to almost EUR 7/t in 2012 revealing the effect of the crisis and continued imbalance between supply of and demand for carbon permits. The decrease of carbon price diminished the economic benefits of GHG emission savings from EUR 74.1 billion in 2009 to EUR 47.1 billion in 2012. pp. 59
References [1].Renewable energy progress reports, http://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/renewableenergy/progress-reports [2]. Directive 2009/28/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources and amending and subsequently reapealing Directives 2001/77/EC and 2003/30/EC http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/en/txt/pdf/?uri=celex:32009l0028&from=en [3]. Szabó M., Jäger-Waldau A., Monforti-Ferrario F., Scarlat N., Bloem H., Quicheron M., Huld Th., Ossenbrink H., "Technical assessment of the renewable energy action plans 2011", EUR 24926 EN, http://iet.jrc.ec.europa.eu/remea/technical-assessment-renewable-energy-action-plans- 2011 [4]. Banja M., Scarlat N., Monforti-Ferrario F., "Review of technical assessment of national renewable energy action plans", 2013, EUR 25757 EN, http://iet.jrc.ec.europa.eu/remea/sites/remea/files/national-renewable-energy-action-plans.pdf [5]. Banja M., Scarlat N., Monforti-Ferrario F., "Renewable energy development in EU-27 (2009-2010)", 2013, EUR 26166 EN, http://iet.jrc.ec.europa.eu/remea/sites/remea/files/reqno_jrc84626_online_final.pdf [6]. Scarlat N., Banja M., Monforti-Ferrario F., Dallemand JF., "Snapshots of renewable energy developments in European Union. Status in 2010 and progress in comparison with national renewable energy action plans", 2013, EUR 26338 EN, http://iet.jrc.ec.europa.eu/remea/sites/remea/files/reqno_jrc85377_snapshots_res_final_print.pdf [7]. Banja M., Scarlat N., Monforti-Ferrario F., Dallemand JF., "Renewable energy progress in EU-27 (2005-2020)", 2013, EUR 26481 EN, http://iet.jrc.ec.europa.eu/remea/renewable-energy-progress-eu-27-2005-2020 [8]. Banja M., Monforti-Ferrario F., Scarlat N., Dallemand JF., Ossenbrink H., Motola V., "Snapshots of renewable energy developments in the EU-28, Volume 2. Current status and progress in comparison with national renewable energy action plans", 2015, EUR 27182 EN http://iet.jrc.ec.europa.eu/remea/snapshot-renewable-energy-development-eu-28-volume-2 [9]. http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/package/index_en.htm [10]. National renewable energy action plans, http://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/renewable-energy/national-action-plans [11]. Report from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament on sustainability requirements for the use of solid and gaseous biomass sources in electricity, heating and cooling (COM(2010) 11. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/lexuriserv/lexuriserv.do?uri=com:2010:0011:fin:en:pdf. pp. 60
[12]. Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 2012 and inventory report 2014, http://www.eea.europa.eu//publications/european-union-greenhouse-gas-inventory-2014. [13]. Kyoto Ambition Mechanism Report, technical paper, April 2014 http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/docs/eu_submission_20140430_technical_ann ex_en.pdf [14]. National renewable energy action plans and progress reports database, Institute for Energy and Transport, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, http://iet.jrc.ec.europa.eu/remea/national-renewable-energy-action-plans-nreaps [15]. The state of the EU carbon market, ICCG Reflection No 14/2013; http://www.iccgov.org/filepaginestatiche/files/publications/reflections/14_reflection_february_2013.pdf [16]. Report from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council "The state of the European carbon market in 2012", http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets/reform/docs/com_2012_652_en.pdf [17]. Proposal for a Decision of the European Parliament and of the Council concerning the establishment and operation of a market stability reserve for the Union greenhouse gas emission trading scheme and amending Directive 2003/87/EC COM(2014) 20 final eesc-2014-00800-00-00-ac-tra-en.doc; https://dm.eesc.europa.eu/eescdocumentsearch/pages/opinionsresults.aspx?k=(documenttype:ac)%20(doc umentlanguage:en)%20(documentnumber:0800)%20(documentyear:2014) pp. 61
Abbreviations COP Conference of Parties GHG Greenhouse Gas H/C Heating/Cooling sector ktoe kilotonne of oil equivalent Mtoe Megatonne of oil equivalent MS Member States NREAPs national renewable energy action plans PR progress reports of renewable energy PV solar photovoltaic PJ petajoule RED Directive 2009/28/EC on renewable energy RES Renewable Energy Sources RES-H/C Renewable Energy Sources in the Heating/Cooling sector RES-E Renewable Energy Sources in the Electricity sector RES-T Renewable Energy Sources in the Transport sector UNFCCC - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Units 1 Mtoe = 41.868 PJ = 11.63 TWh 1 ktoe = 41.868 TJ = 11.63 GWh 1 PJ = 0.278 TWh = 0.024 Mtoe 1 TWh = 3.6 PJ = 0.086 Mtoe 1 TJ = 277.8 MWh pp. 62
List of figures Figure 1. GHG emissions in EU since 1990 (1990=100 %)... 29 Figure 2. Contribution of energy sectors to total GHG emissions in EU, 1990 (left) 2012 (right)... 30 Figure 3. Changes in total GHG emissions in EU MS, (1990-2012) left - (2009-12) right... 33 Figure 4. GHG emissions from energy in EU MS, totals (left) per capita (right), 2012... 34 Figure 5. GHG emissions from power and heat in EU MS, totals (left) per capita (right), 2012... 35 Figure 6. GHG emissions from transport in EU MS, totals (left) per capita (right), 2012... 36 Figure 7. Annual change in total GHG emission savings, EU, 2009-12... 37 Figure 8. Contribution of GHG emission savings from RES to net GHG emission reductions in EU, 2009 (left) and 2012 (right)... 38 Figure 9. Annual change of total RES consumption in EU, 2009-12... 39 Figure 10. Contribution of RES sectors to GHG emission saving due to RES in EU, 2012... 39 Figure 11. Annual change in net GHG emission savings due to RE in EU, 2009-12... 40 Figure 12. Contribution of RES sectors to total RE consumption in EU, 2012... 40 Figure 13. Annual change in RES by sector in EU, 2009-12... 41 Figure 14. Contribution of GHG savings from RES-E+H/C to GHG emissions P+H in EU, 2009-12... 43 Figure 15. GHG emission savings from RES (E+H/C) in EU MS, 2012... 44 Figure 16. Contribution of GHG savings from RES-T to GHG emissions from transport, 2009-12... 44 Figure 17. Compound annual growth rate of GHG emission savings in EU MS, 2009-12... 45 Figure 18. Compound annual growth rate of total RES in EU MS, 2009-12... 46 Figure 19. Compound annual growth rate of GHG savings from RES-E in EU MS, 2009-12... 47 Figure 20. Compound annual growth rate of GHG savings from RES-H/C in EU MS, 2009-12... 48 Figure 21. Compound annual growth rate of GHG savings from RES-E in EU MS, 2009-12... 50 Figure 22. GHG emission savings in EU MS, changes 2009-12(left) 2012 (right)... 51 Figure 23. Changes in RE consumption in EU MS, 2009-12... 52 Figure 24. GHG emission savings from RES-E in EU MS, 2009-12 (left) 2012(right)... 53 Figure 25. GHG emission savings due to RES-H/C in EU MS, changes 2009-12(left) 2012(right)... 54 Figure 26. GHG emission savings due to RES -T in EU MS, changes 2009-12(left) 2012 (right)... 55 Figure 27. Carbon price evolution in EU, 2008-12... 56 Figure 28. Economic benefits of GHG emission savings from renewable energy use in EU, 2009-12. 57 List of tables Table 1. EU MS methodologies applied to calculate the net GHG emission savings from RE... 16 Table 2. Comparators used to calculate GHG emission savings in Bulgaria, 2009-12... 17 Table 3. Comparators used to calculate GHG emission savings in Denmark, 2009-12... 18 Table 4. Comparators used to calculate GHG emission savings in Germany, 2009-12... 18 Table 5. Comparators used to calculate GHG emission savings in Greece, 2009-12... 20 pp. 63
pp. 64
ANNEX I Data from 1 st and 2 nd progress reports on greenhouse gas emission savings due to renewable energy in EU, 2009-12 pp. 65
pp. 66
Table A I.1. GHG emission savings due to total renewable energy 2009 2010 2011 2012 Mt CO 2 eq Mt CO 2 eq Mt CO 2 eq Mt CO 2 eq BE 6.02 7.44 9.08 10.51 BG 5.12 6.17 7.54 8.32 CZ 0.00 0.00 8.32 8.77 DK 12 13.80 14.6 15.70 DE 107 120 129 145 EE 0.003 0.003 0.0 0.0 IE 3.02 2.94 3.64 3.71 EL 11.66 14.60 12.44 13.60 ES 46.47 59.77 53.65 55.86 FR 41.77 45.42 67.30 82.40 HR n.a n.a 5.77 5.89 IT 56.19 60.45 63.78 70.94 CY 0.28 0.31 0.35 0.36 LV 5.05 4.99 4.66 4.57 LT 4.28 4.27 1.43 1.62 LU n.a 0.14 0.44 0.45 HU 4.05 4.35 4.47 4.25 MT 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.14 NL 8.55 8.91 9.28 10.11 AT 28.80 29.90 29.90 30.00 PL 23.86 27.42 30.12 33.17 PT 0.008 0.009 0.007 0.007 RO 26.16 27.35 31.13 30.35 SI 1.31 1.51 4.40 4.78 SK 5.72 5.95 6.28 6.20 FI 37.20 39.80 39.30 41.00 SE 23 84 (13.3) 89 (14.2) 86 (13.2) 98 (13.5) UK 11.12 12.37 22.25 30.15 EU-28 529.64 586.87 645.17 715.85 23 The numbers in brackets show the results of using Sweden s Case 2 to calculate the GHG emission savings due to renewable energy (see Chapter 1). pp. 67
Table A I.2. GHG emission savings due to renewable energy use in electricity 2009 2010 2011 2012 Mt CO 2 eq Mt CO 2 eq Mt CO 2 eq Mt CO 2 eq BE 3.2 3.9 5.0 6.1 BG 2.3 2.8 3.8 4.3 CZ n.a n.a 4.4 4.7 DK 5.8 6.7 6.9 7.3 DE 69.0 75.0 89.0 102.0 EE 0.001 0.001 n.a n.a IE 2.0 1.9 2.7 2.7 EL 8.2 10.9 8.3 9.3 ES 29.6 39.0 35.8 37.6 FR 5.9 6.0 44.2 56.4 HR n.a n.a 4.9 5.0 IT 39.4 40.2 41.5 47.8 CY 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 LV 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 LT 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 LU n.a n.a n.a n.a HU 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.9 MT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 NL 6.4 6.9 7.0 7.6 AT 17.9 18.2 18.8 18.1 PL 6.2 7.4 8.7 11.6 PT 0.002 0.003 0.003 0.003 RO 15.4 15.9 17.3 15.9 SI 0.002 0.002 2.8 3.1 SK 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.2 FI 16.5 16.0 16.6 16.5 SE 54 (1.5) 57 (1.3) 58 (1.2) 67 (1.5) UK 9.3 10.4 20.1 28.2 EU-28 297.9 325.0 402.6 458.1 pp. 68
Table A I.3. GHG emission savings due to renewable energy use in heating/cooling 2009 2010 2011 2012 Mt CO 2 eq Mt CO 2 eq Mt CO 2 eq Mt CO 2 eq BE 2.1 2.5 3.6 3.9 BG 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.0 CZ 0.0 0.0 3.4 3.6 DK 6.2 7.1 7.3 7.8 DE 33.0 40.0 35.0 37.0 EE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 IE 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 EL 3.3 3.5 3.9 3.9 ES 13.3 16.0 12.2 12.3 FR 29.6 33.5 17.3 19.9 HR n.a n.a 0.8 0.8 IT 15.0 18.0 20.0 20.5 CY 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 LV 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.7 LT 3.2 3.1 0.4 0.5 LU n.a n.a n.a n.a HU 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.1 MT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NL 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 AT 10.9 11.7 9.4 10.3 PL 15.3 16.9 17.9 18.5 PT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 RO 10.8 11.5 13.2 13.9 SI 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 SK 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 FI 20.4 23.5 22.3 24.0 SE 29 (11) 31 (12) 27 (11) 30 (11) UK 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EU-28 207.1 234.5 210.6 224.1 pp. 69
Table A I.4. GHG emission savings due to renewable energy use in transport 2009 2010 2011 2012 Mt CO 2 eq Mt CO 2 eq Mt CO 2 eq Mt CO 2 eq BE 0.66 1.01 0.48 0.49 BG 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 CZ n.a n.a 0.47 0.48 DK n.a n.a 0.40 0.60 DE 5.00 5.00 5.00 6.00 EE n.a n.a n.a n.a IE 0.22 0.26 0.15 0.14 EL 0.18 0.28 0.28 0.37 ES 3.58 4.79 5.64 5.89 FR 6.27 5.92 5.81 6.16 HR n.a n.a 0.03 0.05 IT 1.84 2.24 2.24 2.67 CY 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 LV 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.04 LT 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.22 LU 0.00 0.14 0.14 0.15 HU 0.27 0.28 0.26 0.22 MT 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 NL 0.73 0.52 0.79 0.84 AT 0.00 0.00 1.70 1.60 PL 2.32 3.11 3.46 3.08 PT 0.0004 0.0006 0.00003 0.00003 RO 0.00 0.00 0.66 0.60 SI 0.11 0.15 0.06 0.09 SK 0.19 0.25 0.18 0.14 FI 0.30 0.30 0.40 0.50 SE 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.40 UK 1.82 1.92 2.19 1.98 EU-28 24.38 27.20 31.43 33.75 pp. 70
ANNEX II Relationship between greenhouse gas emission savings and renewable energy sources pp. 71
pp. 72
GHG savings RES-E (Mt CO2 eq) GHG savings (Mt CO2 eq) 160 140 120 R² = 0.9544 DE 100 SE 80 FR IT 60 ES 40 FI PL UK 20 AT NL DK SK 0 PT MT -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30-20 RES (Mtoe) Figure A II.1. Correlation in GHG emission savings RES in EU, 2012 120 100 80 R² = 0.9371 SE 60 FR IT 40 ES UK 20 NL PL FI AT SK DK 0 PT MT -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14-20 RES-E (Mtoe) Figure A II.2. Correlation in GHG emission savings RES in electricity in EU, 2012 DE pp. 73
GHG savings RES-T (Mt CO2 eq) GHG savings RES-H/C (Mt CO2 eq) 40 35 30 R² = 0.8848 SE DE 25 FI 20 PL IT FR 15 ES 10 DK AT 5-2 SK NL 0 UK PT MT 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14-5 RES-H/C (Mtoe) Figure A II.3. Correlation in GHG emission savings RES in heating/cooling in EU, 2012 7 6 5 ES R² = 0.6599 FR DE 4 3 PL IT 2 UK AT SE 1 NL DK PT SK FI 0 MT -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500-1 RES-T (ktoe) Figure A II.4. Correlation in GHG emission savings RES in transport in EU, 2012 pp. 74
ANNEX III Compound annual growth rate of renewable energy in EU Member States, 2009-12 pp. 75
pp. 76
CAGR (%) CAGR (%) CAGR (%) 250 MT 200 150 100 CY 50 EE LT PL UK ES IT DE 0 LU RO FI SE AT -2 0SI 2 4 6 FR 8 10 12 14-50 RES - E (Mtoe) Figure A III.1 Compound annual growth rate of RES-E, EU, 2009-12 40 30 MT 20 BE IT BG 10 EL LU UK NL DK AT PL FI CY SI SE LT ES DE FR 0 SK LV RO -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14-10 PT -20 RES - H/C (Mtoe) Figure A III.2 Compound annual growth rate of RES-H/C in EU, 2009-12 200 150 DK 100 RO MT 50 LV CY SI BE SK LT FI SE PL IT FR 0 BG NL AT UK HU DE -1 EL 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4-50 PT ES -100 RES - T (Mtoe) Figure A III.3 Compound annual growth rate of RES-T in EU, 2009-12 pp. 77
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LD-NA-27253-EN-N JRC Mission As the Commission s in-house science service, the Joint Research Centre s mission is to provide EU policies with independent, evidence-based scientific and technical support throughout the whole policy cycle. Working in close cooperation with policy Directorates-General, the JRC addresses key societal challenges while stimulating innovation through developing new methods, tools and standards, and sharing its know-how with the Member States, the scientific community and international partners. Serving society Stimulating innovation Supporting legislation doi:10.2790/941325 ISBN 978-92-79-48368-4 pp. 79