DRAFT Nelson, Tasman and Marlborough (Top of the South) regional summary STATE HIGHWAY INVESTMENT PROPOSAL SEPTEMBER 217 REGIONAL TRANSPORT SYSTEM PROBLEMS AND OPPORTUNITIES Customer safety is compromised by transport infrastructure deficiencies and poor user behaviours High level of motorcyclists and cyclists involved in fatal and serious injury crashes. Lack of attention/observation is a contributing factor to fatal and serious crashes. Appropriate speed and targeting low KiwiRAP rated roads would reduce DSI s. Customers are experiencing increasing congestion in the Nelson and Richmond Pinch points on the urban roading network in Nelson and Richmond are operating at or near capacity. Topography constrains local transport networks. Peak delays are likely to increase as travel demand increases (with population and freight forecasts) and demand for private vehicle use continues To date, there has been limited coordination between growth and infrastructure planning. Network resilience is poor - the region s economic prosperity depends on a wellfunctioning roading and rail network Narrow hillside alignments leave routes prone to slips in case of severe weather events or earthquakes. Climate change impacts, including sea level rising, are expected to impact on future usability of part of the SH network. Key journeys: SH1 Picton to Christchurch National route providing critical connections to port for both freight and tourists. The route is currently closed in some southern sections due to extensive damage from 216 Kaikoura seismic events. The route is winding with gradients, vulnerable to natural events and has sections of high crash risk KiwiRAP 2-Star sections, below the KiwiRAP 4-star target for a National highway. SH6/62/1 Nelson to Picton Regional route is winding with gradients, vulnerable to natural events with sections of high crash risk KiwiRAP 2-Star sections, below the KiwiRAP 3-Star target for a Regional highway. SH6 Nelson to Richmond Regional urban route providing access between the growth centres of Nelson, Richmond and Port Nelson. The key issues along the route include peak period congestion and poor multi-modal accessibility. SH6 Richmond to Canterbury/West Cost Arterial route winding with gradients, vulnerable to natural events with multiple sections of high crash risk KiwiRAP 2-Star sections. Only route connecting Nelson/Tasman to the West Coast, subject to resilience issues due to lack of alternate routes. SH6, until its intersection with SH65, is currently acting as the primary corridor south due to extensive damage on SH1 from recent seismic events. SH6 Richmond to Golden Bay Classified as a Regional route to Motueka and a primary collector to Golden Bay. SH6 provides the only route to and from Golden Bay, the route is winding with gradients, vulnerable to natural events and predominately rated as a high crash risk KiwiRAP 2-star highway. SH63 Blenheim to West Coast Secondary collector route, winding and follows the river valley. The route is catering for significant additional traffic following the 216 Kaikoura event. Tourist connection to the West Coast, high number of unfamiliar drivers. TOP OF THE SOUTH TRENDS Economic trends The Top of the South (TOTS) encompasses the Tasman, Nelson and Marlborough regions. The economies and communities of these three regions are highly dependent on each other for their economic and social wellbeing. The TOTS contributes just under 3% of New Zealand s gross domestic product (GDP) and accounts for approximately 3.2 % of NZ s total population Regional GDP growth for Nelson/Tasman between 211 and 216 was 19% with Marlborough growing by over 32% in the same period, the highest 5 year change in GDP nationally. It is expected that these growth trends will continue. All three economies are highly export focussed - underpinned by primary industries (namely horticulture, viticulture, forestry, seafood, pastoral farming) and associated manufacturing sectors (seafood processing facilities at Motueka and Port Nelson, Log processing facilities in Richmond) - with concentrated exposures to natural commodities and international commodity prices. Population trends The total population of the TOTS is 142,2 (213) with Nelson/Richmond being the largest urban and commercial centre (43%, 63,3 residents) followed by Blenheim Central (3,), Motueka (7,8) and Picton (4,2). Regional population growth has been moderate over the last decade (27 to 216), increasing by approximately 1% per annum. In the longer term, the region s population is expected to slow to.4% growth per annum to 243, the exception is Nelson/Richmond, which is currently forecast to increase by 15% by 243 (an additional 9,5 people). Overall the TOTS population is aging with 35% of the population estimated to be over 65 by 243 (compared to 18% in 213). These rates are significantly above the national average 14% in 213 and 18% in 243. Employment trends The ToTS s key industries are significantly seasonal which has a major impact on the nature of employment needs and opportunities, despite this ToTS unemployment rates have historically been below the national average, ranging between 4.5-5.5% in 216. The TOTS has the greatest reliance on primary industries of any region in the country. However, Stats NZ regional GDP data indicates that the relative importance of these primary sectors for Nelson and Tasman has decreased over the last decade. Several major healthcare, educational and recreational facilities and services are based in Nelson/Richmond centre - serving local communities as well as those across the TOTS and driving associated intra-regional travel demand. Over the last decade the Marlbourgh region has successfully converted most of the land formerly dedicated to cropping and stone fruit orchards to viticulture so that Marlborough is now New Zealand s largest wine-growing region, with a planned vineyard area increase of 3% to 22. Transport trends Primary industries are driving freight task with a 47% increase in freight volumes forecast to 242. The bulk of the increased freight movement is expected to be driven by the following commodities; aggregate, general freight, logs to sawmills and port for export, concrete and increased volumes of general freight. The ports and airports of Nelson and Marlborough play an important role in getting TOTS goods to market, with freight also moving south to Lyttleton port, reflecting the impact of bigger ships and port consolidation on intra-regional freight movements. The majority of freight that travels within and through the TOTS is via road, as rail network is limited to the SIMT line running from Picton down the coast towards Christchurch (currently affected by the 216 Kaikoura Earthquake). Whilst private vehicles remains the most popular choice for journeys to work across the main urban centres, in the 213 census Nelson/Richmond urban centre recorded the highest number of commuter cyclists (journeys to work) of any centre in NZ (18%). An increasingly aging population and flat growth (in Tasman and Marlborough) is shaping transport demand, mode choice and the affordability of infrastructure 2.7% ($7. billion) Percentage of NZ GDP ALL REGIONS MAX $48,43 MIN GDP per capita 17, 7, 2,, 15, 13, 213 223 233 243 Population growth 24.% Changes in GDP 211 16 3% of New Zealand population 65, 6, 1,7, 24 26 28 21 212 Employment Local NZ Employees by industry Agriculture, forestry and fishing Manufacturing Retail trade Health care and social assistance Construction 17-22
REGIONAL TRANSPORT SYSTEM INVESTMENT OUTCOMES Transport priorities for the Top of the South region which were adopted in the 215 221 Regional Land Transport Plan include: 1. A sustainable transport system that is integrated with well planned development, enabling the efficient and reliable movement of people and goods to, from and throughout the region 2. Supporting economic growth through providing better access across the Top of the South s key journey routes 3. Communities have access to a resilient transport system 4. Communities have access to a reliable transport system The overall national strategic direction for land transport, as described in the GPS 215 is to drive improved performance from the land transport system by focusing on: economic growth and productivity road safety value for money NZ Transport Agency Statement of Intent (217-21) Long term goals are: Integrate one effective and resilient network for our customers Shape smart efficient, safe and responsible transport choices Deliver efficient, safe and responsible, and resilient highway solutions for customers Maximise effective, efficient and strategic returns for New Zealand REGIONAL TRANSPORT SYSTEM STRATEGIC RESPONSE Top of the South RLTP transport priority, direction and policy are to: Target investment in regional route improvements to key journey routes Improve network resilience along key journey routes Improve network reliability along key journey routes Target investment in projects that reduce travel times and vehicle operating costs on key journey routes Target investment in projects that reduce travel times and vehicle operating costs on key journey routes Consider Top of the South options to collaborate and improve road operations and maintenance delivery mechanisms Develop and apply ONRC transition plans and programmes to close the customer levels of service gaps Reduce the risk of disruption on lifelines routes MARLBOROUGH THREE YEAR EXPENDITURE & BENEFITS IN 12 8 6 4 2 25 2 15 5 TEN YEAR EXPENDITURE & BENEFITS IN 8 TEN YEAR REGIONAL EXPENDITURE BY SERVICE CATEGORY ($m) THREE YEAR EXPENDITURE & BENEFITS IN 12 8 6 4 2 TEN YEAR EXPENDITURE & BENEFITS IN 4 35 3 25 2 15 5 TEN YEAR REGIONAL EXPENDITURE BY SERVICE CATEGORY ($m) 2 15 6 4 2 5 Access and resilience Travel time Amenity Expenditure The benefits presented are for activities commenced in that time irrespective of completion. Access and resilience Travel time Amenity Expenditure The benefits presented are for activities commenced in that time irrespective of completion.
TASMAN THREE YEAR EXPENDITURE & BENEFITS IN 3 25 2 15 5 TEN YEAR EXPENDITURE & BENEFITS IN 3 25 2 15 5 TEN YEAR REGIONAL EXPENDITURE BY SERVICE CATEGORY ($m) 25 2 15 5 Access and resilience Travel time Amenity Expenditure The benefits presented are for activities commenced in that time irrespective of completion.
TABLE OF KEY STATE HIGHWAY PROJECTS TASMAN Regional Programmes points Regional Programmes routes Improved road safety Greater resilience Committed projects MAP REF ACTIVITY NAME PRIMARY OUTCOME (GPS) PRIMARY OUTCOME (ONRC) PROFILE PHASE COMMITTED PROJECTS PLANNED PROJECTS 1 SH6 Motueka Investigation Improved road safety MM Construction 2 SH6 Richmond to Upper Takaka and Resilience Improvements Improved road safety HL Construction N/A Minor Improvements Programme Improved road safety HM N/A Planned projects Proposed projects MOTUEKA 1 2 RICHMOND REEFTON
TABLE OF KEY STATE HIGHWAY PROJECTS MAP REF ACTIVITY NAME PRIMARY OUTCOME (GPS) PRIMARY OUTCOME (ONRC) PROFILE PHASE COMMITTED PROJECTS 1 SH6 Rai Saddle Curve Realignment Improved road safety HML Construction PLANNED PROJECTS 2 Nelson & Richmond Urban Optimisation (NOF) 3 Nelson Southern Link Investigation 4 SH6 Rocks Road Offroad shared pathway Travel Time Reliability MM Construction Travel Time Reliability HL Construction HL Design 1 N/A Minor Improvements Programme Improved road safety HM N/A 4 3 2 RICHMOND Regional Programmes points Regional Programmes routes Improved road safety Greater resilience Committed projects Planned projects Proposed projects
TABLE OF KEY STATE HIGHWAY PROJECTS MARLBOROUGH MAP REF ACTIVITY NAME PRIMARY OUTCOME (GPS) PRIMARY OUTCOME (ONRC) PROFILE PHASE COMMITTED PROJECTS 1 SH1 Opawa bridge replacement Travel Time Reliability MLL Construction PLANNED PROJECTS 2 SH1 Picton Port Access Improvements Access & Resilience HL Construction 3 SH1 Weld Pass Realignment Improved road safety HL Construction 4 SH6 Blenheim to Nelson improvements Improved road safety HL Construction 5 SH1 Koromiko Valley pathway (Picton to Spring Creek) Travel Time Reliability ML Construction 4 2 PICTON 6 Blenheim Network Optimisation Travel Time Reliability HL Construction N/A Minor Improvements Programme Improved road safety HM N/A RICHMOND 5 1 6 BLENHEIM 3 Regional Programmes points Regional Programmes routes Improved road safety Greater resilience Committed projects Planned projects Proposed projects