BP Energy Outlook 217 edition Margaret Chen Head of China Economist bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats
Economic backdrop Contributions to GDP growth by factor Contributions to GDP growth by region % per annum % per annum 5% Productivity 5% OECD China 4% Population 4% India Other Africa 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% % 1975-1995 1995-215 215-235 % 1975-1995 1995-215 215-235 2
Thousands Global energy demand Energy consumption by region Growth in GDP and primary energy Billion toe 18 16 14 12 1 8 Other Africa Other non-oecd Asia India China OECD % per annum 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Energy intensity GDP Primary energy 6 % 4-1% 2-2% 1965 1975 1985 1995 25 215 225 235-3% 1965-1975 1975-1985 1985-1995 1995-25 25-215 215-225 225-235 3
Fuel mix Billion toe 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Primary energy consumption by fuel Renewables* Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 1965 1975 1985 1995 25 215 225 235 Shares of primary energy 5% Oil 4% 3% 2% 1% % Coal Gas Renewables* Hydro Nuclear 1965 1975 1985 1995 25 215 225 235 *Renewables includes wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, and biofuels 4
Thousands China s energy needs are changing % per annum 1% 8% 5% China s GDP and primary energy demand growth GDP Other sectors Industry Primary energy 1.5 1..5 Coal consumption growth by region Billion toe OECD Other non-oecd Asia India China Other Total 3%. % 1975-1995 1995-215 215-235 -.5 1965-1975 1975-1985 1985-1995 1995-25 25-215 215-225 225-235 5
China is also shifting towards a lower-carbon energy mix... Mtoe per annum 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 *Including biofuels Primary energy demand growth by fuel Renewables* Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 1975-1995 1995-215 215-235 6 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Shares of primary energy Oil Coal Non-fossils* Gas % 1975 1985 1995 25 215 225 235
Oil demand Liquids demand Liquids demand growth Mb/d 12 Power 1 Buildings Industry 8 Non-combusted 6 Ships, trains & planes 4 Trucks 2 Transport Cars 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 Liquids includes oil, biofuels and derivatives of coal and natural gas 7 Mb/d, average annual growth 2. 1.5 1..5. -.5 25-21 Power Industry Transport 21-215 215-22 22-225 Buildings Non-combusted Total 225-23 23-235
Abundance of oil resources Trillion barrels 2.8 2.4 2. 1.6 1.2.8.4. Estimates of technically recoverable resources and cumulative oil demand Europe Asia Africa S&C America N America CIS Middle East Technically recoverable resources 215-235 Cumulative demand 215-25 8 Mb/d 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Oil supply of lower-cost producers Low-cost producer s share of global liquids production (right axis) Share 65% 6% 55% 5% 45% 4% 1985 1995 25 215 225 235 US Russia Middle East OPEC
Natural gas Gas supply growth: 215-235 Gas consumption by sector Bcf/d Bcf/d 14 5 Transport 12 1 Australia Russia 4 Buildings Power Non-combusted 8 Other Other Middle East 3 Industry 6 4 Africa China 2 2 US 1 Shale Conventional decline Conventional growth 1965 1975 1985 1995 25 215 225 235 9
Growth of LNG LNG supply LNG demand Bcf/d Bcf/d 8 7 6 5 4 Other Russia Africa United States Australia Qatar 8 7 6 5 4 Other Middle East S&C America Asia Europe 3 3 2 2 1 1 199 25 22 235 199 25 22 235 1
LNG Trade Net LNG exports and imports in 235 (Bcf/d) North America 22 Europe 17 Middle East Other Asia Russia 5 9 44 Exports Imports S & C America 2 Africa 7 Australia 17 17 11
China s dependency on imported gas set to increase Bcf/d 6 5 LNG Russian pipeline 4 Other pipeline Production 3 2 1 1995 25 215 225 235 12
Carbon emissions 13
Carbon emissions % per annum 2.5% Contributions to slower growth of carbon emissions Billion tonnes CO 2 4 Carbon emissions 2.% GDP 3 IEA 45 Base case 1.5% 1.% Energy intensity Fuel mix 2.5% 1.% 1995-215 215-235 1965 1975 1985 1995 25 215 225 235 14
Faster transition pathways Carbon emissions Reductions in emissions versus base case Billion tonnes CO 2 Billion tonnes CO 2 in 235 4 2 4 6 8 1 Power 3 CCUS* Faster transition Even faster transition Base case Faster transition Even faster transition 2 1995 25 215 225 235 Industry & Buildings Transport * Carbon capture, use and storage (predominantly in power sector) 15
Energy outlook under alternative transition pathways Annual demand growth by fuel The changing fuel mix Mtoe per annum 25 2 15 1 5 Non-fossil Coal Gas Oil Total % of primary energy 5% Oil Coal Gas Non-fossil 4% 3% 2% -5-1 -15 1995-215 Base FT EFT CO2 1% % 215 Base FT EFT 215-35 235 16
Risks to gas demand Global primary energy shares Natural gas growth 215-235 % of primary energy Mtoe per annum 4% 35% Base case Slower gas case 2 Increasing climate and environmental policies 3% Coal 15 Coal 25% 1 2% 15% Gas 5 1% 1965 1975 1985 1995 25 215 225 235 Slower gas case Base case Faster transition Even faster transition 17
BP Energy Outlook 217 edition bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats