255 Spotlight Cities Spaces of Risk or Opportunities for Active Changes? Dynamic Responses to the Challenges of Climate Change Today s world is urban. More than 50% of the world s population now lives in cities, and the figure is increasing (UN 2014a). Ongoing urbanization shows strong linkages to other global dynamics, such as economic and land use change, demographic change, and especially climate change. Due to this interaction, cities are increasingly evolving into hotspots in which social, economic and environmental challenges become concentrated, but they also offer many opportunities to devise sound strategies for sustainable urban development. However, the complexity of urban dynamics and the pace of change cannot be managed by one-off initiatives in the planning or technological sphere, and do not lend themselves to a purely local response. Instead, urban transformations are required, which must include comprehensive reforms of existing governance structures. The growing complexities that cities are likely to face in future will require more integrated solutions. In the 21st century, urban areas are a global challenge. The urbanization/climate change nexus Whereas urbanization has slowed in Europe, North America and South America, high rates can still be observed elsewhere, particularly in Asia and Africa [see Figure 1]. Cities are characterized by highly complex, interactive and, to some extent, mutually reinforcing processes. However, their development pathways and frameworks vary. Cities differ according to whether they are located in developing, emerging or industrialized countries or in centralized or federal systems, and whether their populations are growing or shrinking or showing both phenomena at the same time. This means that they all face different challenges, which require context-specific solutions. Cities not only have a high concentration of people; many are also hubs of economic activity. They are major consumers of energy and natural resources and produce large amounts of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, making them major climate culprits. However, many cities are also affected to a high degree by climate change. Sea-level rise, for example, heightens the flood risk for coastal cities, while urban areas in arid or semi-arid regions are susceptible to water scarcity. Hazards like flood and heat are becoming more pronounced in cities. An undersupply with urban green areas can result in a lack of retention and cooling areas. Cities may also be characterized by inequalities in the socio-spatial distribution of climate
256 Global Trends 2015 Figure 1: Urbanization a global phenomenon. Rates remain high in Asia and Africa Global urbanization rates (since 1950; forecast to 2050) 3.0 Annual average rate of change (%) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 Africa Asia Europe Latin America/Caribbean North America 0.5 0 1950-1955 1955-1960 1965-1970 1970-1975 1960-1965 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1995-2000 2000-2005 1990-1995 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2025-2030 2030-2035 2020-2025 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050 Source: Author s own graphics, based on UN 2014b change impacts; the same applies to access to natural resources, infrastructure and information. In other words, cities are spaces of risk, but they also offer numerous opportunities for innovative planning, technological, political and social responses to specific urban challenges and climate change. The prerequisite for this is a sufficient level of awareness of these issues in politics and society. An active urban response to climate change In developing appropriate climate strategies for urban areas, interaction between the various stakeholders is crucial, in order to identify and facilitate an integrated approach to complexities. The stakeholders in question include governments and public institutions at national, regional and local level; the private sector, such as energy and water utilities; civil society, i.e. the general public and non-governmental organizations; scientists from a range of disciplines; and sectors such as environment, construction, transport, housing, economic affairs, etc., which pursue different development goals but are all affected by climate change. The aim, then, should be to integrate aspects of climate change adaptation into existing policies and practices, such as land use management, urban planning and risk management. However, this may mean that climate change remains a peripheral issue and receives less attention, in the context of sustainable development goals, than it deserves.
Cities Spaces of Risk or Opportunities for Active Changes? 257 Urbanization and climate change are global trends to which there are no one-size-fits-all solutions. There is considerable variance in the extent to which cities in developing, emerging and industrialized countries are affected and the capacities they have available, such as institutional frameworks, functioning planning systems and, of course, financial resources. The question, then, is how fundamental transformations towards sustainable urban development can be achieved under these diverse conditions. In essence, the aim should be to create stable participatory structures that are sufficiently flexible to remain effective during crises, conflicts, periods of austerity, etc. a goal which, at present, seems out of reach in many countries of the world. Without these structures, topics such as climate change and, more generally, sustainable development goals will be the first to be dropped from the political agenda (Rink et al. 2015). Mutual learning is important for cities in many respects, but it can do no more than facilitate the sharing of lessons learned and good stand-alone solutions; it cannot offer any universal strategies. Many cities around the world are addressing these challenges and developing responses to the impacts of climate change at the local level; initial activities date back to the late 1980s (Bulkeley/ Broto 2012). Cities are actively involved in developing local climate strategies or action plans, in some cases without national policy frameworks to guide them. In many cases, planning departments, policy-makers, researchers and civil society are working together through participatory processes. Mexico City stands out in this context; here, a Table 1: Some of the leading transnational municipal networks promoting sustainable development Network Membership Agenda Year founded C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability UCLG United Cities and Local Governments WMCCC World Mayors Council on Climate Change 70 megacities Reducing CO2 emissions > 1000 cities Sustainable development Local and regional governments or associations > 80 local governments Source: Author s own graphics 2014 Advocacy for local governments, e.g. sustainable development Reducing CO2 emissions 2005 1990; renamed ICLEI in 2003 2004 2005
258 Global Trends 2015 legal framework has been established with the adoption of a law on climate change. São Paulo is notable for the active engagement of one of its mayors. In parallel, numerous transnational municipal networks have been set up to promote mutual learning and dialogue [see Table 1]. Solutions such as smart cities, clean energy cities and post-carbon cities also have a role to play, often signalling a trend towards stand-alone technological solutions and mainly focusing on maximizing short-term competitive advantages and economic success. Social aspects, such as issues of acceptance, equitable distribution and access to resources and information, lifestyles, etc. receive less attention. However, it is these social aspects which are indispensable for the development of appropriate responses to climate change: an understanding of citizens vulnerability, their needs and their capacities to cope with the impacts of climate change is vital in devising appropriate adaptation measures. Principles for targeted urban climate action The complexity of urban challenges is increasing. Against this background, traditional, mainly sector-based, decisionmaking processes must be reformed, with more involvement of a diverse range of actors in order to achieve an integrative perspective. Participation thus plays a key role. Scientific analyses should also be an integral component, in order to identify the specific impacts of climate change on cities and develop context-specific, interdisciplinary solutions. Scientific data, societal know-how and policy-making must be combined in order to produce implementable solutions. It is becoming increasingly apparent that comprehensive planning and, above all, implementation of integrative climate strategies pose major challenges, and that there is limited scope to transfer solutions from one city to another. There is often a reliance on stand-alone technological solutions. In this situation, demonstration projects of an experimental nature can make a useful contribution. An increasing number of climate change experiments can be observed in cities (Bulkeley/Broto 2012), moving beyond traditional governance approaches without being utopian in terms of their vision. A comprehensive analysis of when, where and how they evolve and are implemented has yet to be conducted. To ensure that they can be deployed to support urban transformations, however, they should take equal account of mitigation and adaptation and allow for a more systemic perspective. Various solutions must be weighed up and the financial costs estimated. It must be borne in mind, in this context, that urbanization and climate change are not linear processes. Urban infrastructures and their innovative and flexible design will play a key role as cities adapt to climate change while safeguarding attractive living conditions for a changing society. Technological innovations must be coupled
Cities Spaces of Risk or Opportunities for Active Changes? 259 with social innovations in a meaningful way in order to promote intensive exchange, learning and acceptance of the possibility of change and to encourage people to be involved in shaping this transformation. In this way, outside the framework of major climate action plans and strategies, a partnership can be developed between public and private actors and integrated into traditional governance structures. It is essential to weigh up the opportunities and risks of various interventions and encourage intensive stakeholder communication. An analysis of the potential afforded by experiments is also important in order to understand and influence urban transformations. Leading figures from politics, research, the private sector and civil society have a key role to play in long-term monitoring and attainment of goals. Communication, cooperation, transparency and trust are highly important. Only by recognizing the strengths and weaknesses of all actors involved and by considering complexities will it be possible to develop a climate change response that walks the talk. A forward-looking approach which includes an element of lateral thinking, coupled with more intensive cooperation among cities in the interests of mutual learning and exchange, offers the prospect of further positive outcomes in cities climate response. References Bulkeley, Harriet/Vanesa Castán Broto 2012: Government by experiment? Global cities and the governing of climate change, in: Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, Vol. 38/3, p. 361 375. Rink, Dieter/Ellen Banzhaf/Sigrun Kabisch/ Kerstin Krellenberg 2015: Von der Großen Transformation zu urbanen Transformationen. Zum WBGU-Hauptgutachten Welt im Wandel, in: GAIA Vol. 24/1, p. 21 25. UN (United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division) 2014a: World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, Highlights (ST/ESA/ SER.A/352). UN (United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division) 2014b: World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, CD-ROM Edition. Kerstin Krellenberg Translation: Hillary Crowe