NOVA-BOVA, Tartu, Estonia, May 3-4, 2012 Bridging Countries Bridging Generations Urbanization Water resources Climate change 1 Aleksandras Stulginskis University, Lithuania Dr. L. Taparauskienė
Global Challenges - John Beddington s Perfect Storm Urbanization Population Alleviating Poverty Energy Demand Food Security Water Demand 2 Climate Change Biodiversity Public Health
Population increase Actual population 7 billion (2011.10.31.) http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html Growth 75 million per year 1,1 % per year 203 800 people per day 3
Urban population 1960 1980 2011 2025 The world urban population is expected to increase by 72 % by 2050, from 3.6 billion in 2011 to 6.3 billion in 2050. 4
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Why do we care about urbanization? Urban areas provide many potential advantages for improving living conditions through the economies of scale and proximity they provide for most forms of infrastructure and services. But there are very serious development problems in many urban areas, high levels of urban poverty serious problems of food security high infant and child mortality 8
Key issues with regard to agriculture and urbanization whether the growing and changing demands for agricultural products from growing urban populations can be sustained? Globally, agriculture has met the demands from this rapidly growing urban population, including food that is more energy-, land-, water- and greenhouse gas emission-intensive. 9
A challenge? need 50 % more production on less land, with less water and using less energy by 2030 Demand for food Will there be enough water to grow enough food?
Global change, at its root, is driven by two major factors: the overall size and growth of the human population; by a combination of our life styles, our economies and technology development, which drives our utilization of and impacts on natural resources and increases the wastes/pollutants we generate and discharge to the environment. 11
Changes on earth are always a mixture of natural and anthropogenic changes. Arguably, much of the success associated with human survival and prosperity has been related to our ability to control and utilize water resources to our benefit. We have developed reliable water supplies. We have protected humans and human development We have improved basic sanitation, controlled pollutants, and developed reliable irrigation, navigation, and energy systems. 12
Predicted water scarcity and stress in 2025 13 The challenge Total water for global demand agriculture are predicted is to grow to increase more food on not much more land, using less water, fertiliser and by over 30 % by 2030 pesticides than we have historically done.
Will there be enough water to grow enough food? It is possible to produce the food but it is probable that today s food production and environmental trends, if continued, will lead to crises in many parts of the world. Only if we act to improve water use in agriculture will we meet the acute freshwater challenges facing humankind over the coming 50 years. David Molden, 2007. Comprehensive assessment of water assessment in agriculture 14
Water use in the world (2005) Water withdrawal and consumption (2005) 15
Land and water use today and in the future under different scenarios 16
Ten Water Resource Concerns for the Next Decade Water Resources Sustainability Water Resources Education and Information Water Resources and Climate Global Water Problems Infrastructure Concerns Watershed Management Problems Institutional Effects on Water Availability Concerns in Water Resources Management Decisions Water and Energy Concerns About Water Quality 17
Climate change Climate change is now recognised as one of the most serious challenges It is a challenge that must and can be dealt with. When we talk about future there is One world, One outcome, One chance 18
Climate change is now recognised as one of the most serious challenges facing the world its people, the environment and its economies 19
Climate challenge Agriculture will face many challenges over the coming decades, such as increasing international competition, further liberalisation of trade policy and further declines in the rural population in many regions. Climate change adds to these pressures. 20
Twin climate change challenges for agriculture Breakdown of agricultural GHG emissions and share in EU total emissions (EU-27) 2005 Climate change presents a double challenge today: to cut the emissions of gases responsible for warming (known as mitigation); and to adapt to future climate change to lessen its adverse effects. These are major challenges for European Union (EU) agriculture and agricultural policy-making. 21
Projected change by the end of the 21st Century in mean annual temperature 22 in mean annual precipitation
Key climate change concerns for European agriculture 23
Agriculture can contribute further to the effort against climate change: Conversion of animal waste into biogas Organic farming methods Enhancing the carbon sink function of agricultural soils Renewable resources for bio-energies and bioproducts Providing environmental services 24
Improving our knowledge Adaptation planning in agriculture cannot be done on the basis of global knowledge about changes in climate patterns, but needs detailed information on regional impacts and meaningful assessment of the adaptive options and their feasibility at local and farm level. Successful adaptation will require the collaboration from EU to national, regional and local. 25
Concluding More research into the impact of climate change on agriculture (and vice versa) is needed. The biggest challenge is to guarantee the sustainability of European agriculture and rural areas, bringing economic and social viability and resilience to climate change. Agriculture in the world cannot be sustainable without science Dr. Per Pinstrup Anderson, professor of food, nutrition and public policy, Cornell University; Former Director General, IFPRI 26
Concluding Science and technology must play a leading role in meeting increasing demand over the coming decades in a sustainable manner. Scientific evidence also underpins the range of domestic policies and international agreements needed. International scientific collaboration is essential to solve the major global problems. Bridging countries bridging generations for our common future! 27
28 Thank you for your attention!