STATISTICS ON WORLD PRODUCTION, EXPORT, IMPORT, PRICES AND UTILIZATION OF RICE: REPORT COMPILED BY: IQRA JUNEJO 1
TABLE OF CONTENT S:NO CONTENT PAGE # 1 Acknowledgement 3 2 Rice sector of Pakistan 4 3 Rice production with the eye of FAO 5 4 International trade of rice 6 5 Top 10 exporters of rice 7 6 Pakistan rice export is loosing it s share 7 7 Top 10 importers of rice 9 8 2013 industry forecast by USDA &FAO 9 9 Pakistan exported 3.1 million tons of rice in fy 2012-2013 10 10 Global utilization of rice 12 11 International export prices 13 12 references 14 13 2
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT: I would like to thanks Allah Almighty who made me capable enough and gave me courage to make this report on rice which is such an important sector of Pakistan s economy and foreign earning in the limited time frame. I would like to express my special thanks of gratitude to Owner of AGRI- CORNER. Who gave me this wonderful and golden opportunity to compile statistic on import, export, prices and utilization of rice in world. It helped me a lot in doing research and I came to know about many facts, figures and many new things. Iqra Junejo Freelance Agri-Researcher 3
RICE SECTOR OF PAKISTAN: Pakistan is the 4th largest producer of rice following chine, India, Indonesia. Rice is the major export product of Pakistan following wheat, cotton, it export earns about 13% of the country s foreign exchange making it the second most important source of foreign exchange following cotton, total share of Pakistan in world s trade of rice is up to 10% while 25% in world s trade of basmati rice. Basmati rice covers 52% of the total cultivated area of rice in Pakistan. Generally in Pakistan rice production system is followed by rice-wheat production system means both are grown in a alternate pattern, as rice are grown in the monsoon months and wheat in the cooler months of winter season, in the province name Punjab there is sufficient water available to grow rice in the kharif season (summer) as per the requirement of rice while wheat is grown in the rabi (winter) months from November to April. Rice is cultivated over 10% of total cropped area of Islamic republic of Pakistan. It is contributing approximately 6.7 % in value addition of agriculture and the contribution of rice in GDP is about 1.3-1.6% in total GDP. If we talk about contribution of provinces in it s production, Punjab ranks 1st by contributing 58%, Sindh ranks 2nd by contributing 29%, Balochistan ranks 3rd and it s contribution is about 3 % and Khyber Pakhtoun Khawan ranks 4th by contributing 10 %. Lahore, Gujranwala, Sargodha, Multan, Bahawalpur, Sukkhur, Larkana, Khairpur, Nawabshah, Hyderabad are famous for rice production in Pakistan. There are many varieties which are being cultivated in Pakistan like super kernel basmati, super basmati, irri-6, irri-9, pk-385 basmati rice, pk-198 basmati rice etc. 4
RICE PRODCUTION WITH THE EYE OF FAO: According to the reports of 2013 China (Mainland), India, Pakistan and the Philippines, which had endured a number of climatic setbacks, but where damage to crops was reckoned to have been less severe than previously reported. Results were improved for Colombia, Indonesia, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Japan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Tanzania and Thailand, while production was decreased in Cambodia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Myanmar and Russia. The up gradation of global paddy rice was 3.5 million to 744.9 million tonnes (496.6 million tonnes, milled basis), which would entail a relatively low 1.1 percent increase from the previous season. In many countries of ASIA like China, Laos and Malaysia production of rice was because of climatic problems, On the other hand, production was increased in India, Indonesia and Pakistan. In Africa, production was increased in the western and eastern parts of the continent while production was decreased in Madagascar, where production was decreased by erratic weather and pests. Because of more favorable growing conditions production of rice was increased in Australia and in Latin America and the Caribbean, production was decreased in USA and Europe. According to the forecast of FAO global production of paddy in 2014 could reach 751.0 million tonnes (500.7 million tonnes, milled basis) which is o.8 percent higher than the estimation of 2013 and subdued growth of 3 rd consecutive production of paddy. Asia can be called as center or hub of rice production any event like drought, pest and other changes related with agronomic operations may have impact on paddy yield. Farmers might shift their agronomic operations toward different water deficiency tolerant produces. While increase in production is expected in South America, while drought conditions in Australia can reduce production. International rice trade in 2013, FAO had slightly lowered its November estimation which now stands at 37.3 million tonnes, about 3 percent (1.0 million tonnes) less than the recorded value of 2012. Indonesia and Philippines followed the bumper crops most of world import was reduced because both countries retreated from market. Nigeria and China, the most important rice destinations, also reduced imports, while inflows to the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Republic of Korea and Madagascar are estimated to have risen as compared to 2012. Decreased was observed in export of Viet Nam, whose official exports were reported to have fallen by 1 million tonnes, because of less of interest of Indonesia and Philippines two of Viet Nam s most important buyers of rice. More contained reductions were experienced by Brazil, Myanmar, Thailand and Uruguay, because of high domestic prices. On the other hand, Cambodia, China, India and Pakistan managed to step up their sales abroad. 5
INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN RICE IN 2014: IMPORT OF RICE: International trade in rice in 2014 is predicted to recover by 5 percent to 39.3 million tonnes, 1.0 million tonnes higher than predicted in November and a new high. Faced with rising domestic prices and a thinning of reserves, Asian countries (Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nepal, the Philippines and Sri Lanka) would be responsible for much of the 2.0 million tonne expected increase in world imports of rice. However, rice flows to countries in Africa are also anticipated to edge higher, mainly on larger purchases by Nigeria, Mali and Tanzania, as deliveries to Madagascar and Mozambique are predicted to be reduced Imports by countries in Latin America and the Caribbean may also rise, supported by larger inflows to Haiti and Bolivia, while those directed to Brazil may decline. EXPORT OF RICE: On the supply side, ample availabilities in exporting countries, following large harvests and inventories, are intensifying competition for markets. Amid sustained efforts to curb its public inventories, Thailand is expected to capture much of the expansion in world demand, although most of the other rice exporters (Argentina, Brazil, Cambodia, China, Egypt, Guyana, Pakistan, Paraguay, the United States and Viet Nam) are also forecast to export more. Larger deliveries by these countries would come at the expense of reduced exports by India, which may, nonetheless, retain its number one position among exporters. As for exports, much of the brunt of the trade contraction was borne by Viet Nam, whose official exports were reported to have fallen by 1 million tonnes, consistent with the reduced purchases by Indonesia and the Philippines, two of Viet Nam s most important buyers. More contained reductions were experienced by Brazil, Myanmar, Thailand and Uruguay, a consequence of high 6
domestic prices. By contrast, Cambodia, China, India and Pakistan managed to step up their sales abroad. TOP 10 EXPORTERS OF RICE IN THE WORLD WITH THE EYE OF REUTER( 2010): S N0 COUNTRY NAME EXPORT IN THOUSAND METRIC TON 1 Thailand 8,500 2 Vietnam 6,500 3 Pakistan 3,800 4 India 2,200 5 Cambodia 850 6 Uruguay 700 7 China 600 8 Egypt 600 9 Argentina 500 10 Brazil 400 PAKISTAN RICE EXPORTS LOSING SHARE IN TRADITIONAL RICE BUYERS: 7
Pakistan was targeting to increase rice exports up to 4 million tons in the fiscal year 2012-13 (July to June), but high prices and increasing competition had slowed down exports of rice to alarmingly low levels that year. According to preliminary data available from Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), rice exports during July to December 2012 had decreased up to 1.1 million tons, down about 27% from the same period the previous year. Basmati rice exports had declined to 260,360 tons, down by about 45% from last year, while exports of non-basmati rice declined about 19% to around 857,240 tons. 8
Pakistan s average basmati rice export price in December 2012 stood up to $1,029 per ton, increased about 26% from the same month in the previous year, while the average price of nonbasmati rice was at $617 per ton, increased about 37% from the last year. Pakistan exported around 3.29 million tons of rice in the FY 2011-12, reduced about 10% from 3.67 million tons exported in FY 2010-11. Rice production in 2012-13 was expected to reach about 6.5 million tons, around the same levels of the last year. TOP 10 IMPORTERS OF RICE IN THE WORLD WITH THE EYE OF REUTER( 2010): S NO COUNTRY NAME IMPORT IN THOUSAND METRIC TON 1 Philippines 2,600 2 Nigeria 1,700 3 Iran 1,150 4 Saudi Arabia 1,100 5 Iraq 1,020 6 Malaysia 680 7 cote d Ivoire 860 8 south Africa 800 9 Indonesia 800 10 Brazil 800 2013 INDUSTRY FORECASTES BY USDA and FAO: 2013-MILLED RICE FORECASTE BY USDA: 9
PAKISTAN EXPORTS 3.1 MILLION TONS OF RICE IN FY 2012-13; DOWN 14% FROM PREVIOUS YEAR: 10
Total rice exports by Pakistan in the fiscal year 2012-13 (July June) had declined to around 3.1 million tons, down about 14% from total rice exports of around 3.62 million tons in the last fiscal year (FY). Earnings from rice exports in FY 2012-13 also failed to reach the targeted value of $2 billion, reaching around $1.98 billion, decreased about 1% compared to around $2 billion earned from rice exports in the last fiscal year 2011-2012. According to provisional data which is available from Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), most of the decline in rice exports in the FY 2012-13 was seen in export of basmati rice, which declined to 593,257 tons, reduced about 35% from around 920,282 tons in FY 2011-12. Revenue generated from exports of basmati rice in FY 2012-13 declined to about $608 million, reduced about 25% from around $815 million earned in the last fiscal year FY 2011-2012. GLOBAL UTILIZATION OF RICE: According to forecast of FAO global utilization of rice in 2013-2014 can be increased by 1.0 million tonnes to 490.3 million tonnes (milled basis), or 2.5 percent above the previous year 2012-2013. According to expectation of FAO global utilization of rice in the year 2014-15 may reach up to 502.0 million tonnes. An increase in the population of world is projected to 1.4 percent the average rice per capita food intake would rise marginally above the 2013-14 estimate of 56.9 kilos, to 57.0 kilos. 11
latest estimates states that the global rice stocks carried over in 2014 are set to rise for the ninth consecutive year, reaching 180.5 million tonnes (milled basis), 1.5 million tonnes more than foreseen in November, and 3.2 percent above their opening level. Developing countries would be responsible for the entire stockpile, amassing 3 percent more, largely sustained by an increase in China. By contrast, much as a result of poor production results, carryovers in developed nations could fall by 3 percent. Overall, the five major rice exporters are also expected to build up their reserves, owing to larger inventories in Pakistan, Thailand and Viet Nam, which would compensate for a drawdown in India and the United States. As a result of these changes, the world stock-to-use ratio, a key indicator of food security, is predicted to rise from 35.7 percent in 2012-13 to 35.9 percent in 2013-14. As for the five major exporters stock-todisappearance ratio, an indicator of the expected international market tightness, current forecasts point to a decline from 28.0 percent to 27.8 percent over the same period. Although still very preliminary and based on current prospects for production, trade and utilization, global rice stocks carried over in 2015 are forecast to be trimmed for the first time in ten years, albeit by only 0.5 percent. INTERNATIONAL RICE EXPORT PRICES: 12
Note:All the information used in this report is used for educational purpose only. REFERENCES: FAO PUBLICATIONS THE REUTER PAKISTAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS (PBS) ORYZA.COM 13