ETHIOPIA Food Security Update July 2006

ETHIOPIA Food Security Update July 2006 ALERT STATUS: NO ALERT WATCH WARNING EMERGENCY CONTENTS Summaries and Calendar... 1 Pastoral areas update... 2 Belg production update... 3 Market analysis... 3 Weather update... 5 Summary and implications Although the widespread food security crisis faced by Ethiopia has been ameliorated, more than 10 million Ethiopians, in particular pastoralists and vulnerable farmers in the eastern highlands, still require humanitarian assistance (via emergency and safety net programs) through the end of 2006. Populations in Amhara, Afar, SNNP, Somali and Oromiya Regions remain highly food insecure. According to preliminary results from the belg/gu assessment, additional beneficiaries to those estimated in January are expected to require assistance for the remainder of the year. This could require an increase in the 7.2 million peak beneficiary number for the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) and necessitate PSNP contingency resources 1. Emergency beneficiary figures are also expected to increase in Somali region to about 1.6 million for the period August to December from the 1.5 million in the January appeal. Another 100,000 to 200,000 additional or existing emergency beneficiaries are expected to require assistance in other drought prone non-psnp areas. The response this year has been challenged by insufficient emergency food aid and a lack of comprehensive response in non-food sectors. Cereal emergency food aid pledges for the period August to December 2006 stood at about 135,000 MT, about 48,000 MT short of the expected emergency requirements assuming that about 1.8 million people require assistance for the period. Almost 36 percent of the August to December cereal requirements are unmet and a partial pipeline break is expected beginning from November. Breaks in on-going distributions will have a serious impact on drought-affected pastoral populations. The Government has also received only 36 percent of the US$ 111 million required for needed interventions in health, sanitation, water, and agricultural sectors. This shortage is especially critical for the most food insecure populations, such as those in Somali Region, where food aid alone will not resolve the current crisis and lack of non-food assistance may lead to deterioration in the nutritional situation. Seasonal calendar Humanitarian Needs Percentage of Population Needing Humanitarian Assistance in 2006 (Emergency + PSNP) Current hazard summary Data source: Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Agency (DPPA) and Food Security Coordination Bureau (FSCB). Graphics by FEWS NET. Failed deyr 2005 season rains (October to December) in southern and southeastern parts of the country affected the lives of millions of pastoralists. Poor 2006 belg/gu (March to May) rains in some pastoral and lowland crop dependent areas. Floods and hailstorms damaged crops and household assets during the belg/gu season and impeded movement, especially in pastoral areas. Cereal prices remain at record high levels, having increased significantly in May and June. Tribal and resource based conflicts occurred in southern Oromiya and Somali regions. 1 According to the PSNP Program Implementation Manual (PIM), a 20 percent increase in resource levels via a contingency fund is possible when chronically food insecure needs increase above the base level set for the program. This gives the program the ability to expand when needed. FEWS NET Ethiopia P O Box 1014 Addis Ababa FEWS NET is funded by the US Agency for International Development www.fews.net Tel: 251-116-620216/18 Fax: 251-116-620230 E-mail: Ethiopia@fews.net

Food security summary Preliminary belg/gu season pre-harvest needs assessment results indicate that the belg/gu rains have resulted in an improvement of the overall humanitarian situation in the country. However, many of the most food insecure areas of the country require continued assistance and in some some areas needs have increased following the consecutive poor performances of deyr and gu rains rains and resultant crop failures. In these areas needs have increased due to an inability to recover from last season s poor production; high malnutrition rates compounded by inadequate public health services; low purchasing power due to escalating cereal prices; decreased or total failure of income from livestock sale; the absence of alternative income sources; delayed transfers from the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP); and, poor targeting and a dilution of relief resources at household level. Furthermore, in pastoral areas livestock are threatened as access to pasture, browse and water sources are poor due to failed 2005 deyr season (October to December) and an elongated dry period during the 2006 gu season. Conflicts are hampering livestock movement to alternative water and grazing areas in many parts of Borena and Guji zones of Oromiya Region and this may lead to a significant rise in livestock mortality. Limited market access and displacement have lead to concentrations of people and livestock in areas with limited pasture and water resulting in overgrazing and growing risk of increased human and animal morbidity. The Government of Ethiopia s January 2006 appeal was made on the assumption that pastoral and belg-dependent populations would not require assistance beyond July 2006, but the preliminary belg/gu assessment results show assistance to continue in areas where the belg harvest has failed and drought conditions persist. In these areas the most food insecure households, including farmers in some parts of the east Amhara, Oromiya and SNNP Regions and pastoralists in Zones 2 and 4 of Afar and all zones of Somali Region will continue to require humanitarian assistance. Both the food and non-food aid needs are expected to remain at their high level between August and September, though some meher dependent drought prone areas may get a breather, if June to September rains and subsequent harvests are good. Although pastoral areas do not have a predictable rainy season (rainfall pattern), the bulk of rains in Afar typically occur in July and August and deyr (minor season) rains in southern zones of Somali region are not expected until October. Pastoral areas update Pastoral areas in Ethiopia face chronically high levels of food insecurity. The failure of deyr/hagaya/dadda (October to December) rains in 2005 and a below normal performance of gu/ganna/sugum (March May) rains in 2006, coupled with the poor market linkages and increased conflict in these areas resulted in an acute crisis in early 2006. Although conditions have temporarily eased, the early cessation and poor distribution of the gu rains coupled with delayed and insufficient assistance in southern and southeastern pastoral areas mean high levels of food insecurity will persist through at least the remainder of this year. The joint belg and pastoral areas emergency needs assessment mission found that despite much improved livestock health and increased milk production, a continuation and increase in food aid is needed. More than 2 million people (including safety net program beneficiaries in Afar region) will need humanitarian assistance for the last 6 months of the year in pastoral areas. Good rains in April and some showers in May generated optimism that the food security situation would improve and thus reduce the need for food aid. However, food security among pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in Zones 2 and 4 of Afar region and southern zones of Somali Region and lowlands of Borena zone of Ormiya region remain fragile. Prolonged drought, severe shortages of pasture and water and insecurity are hampering livestock movements to alternative water and grazing areas weakening livestock. The gu rains (long rains), which normally extend from March until May, were poorly distributed in many locations, especially along the borders of Kenya and Somalia, reducing access to pasture and water. Insecurity has also decreased access to markets affecting critical sources of income needed to rebuild assets and recover from the crisis earlier in the year. Finally the irregular, delayed and poorly targeted food and non-food interventions continue to limit response efforts and are likely to contribute to deterioration in the nutritional situation during the dry season. Communities tend to share food aid across the population, rather than targeting the poorest or most food insecure, thus making targeting efforts very difficult. Page 2 of 5

According to the Livestock Early Warning System, forage conditions are likely to deteriorate rapidly in the northern part of Afar region and south eastern part of Somali region. Since seasonably dry conditions are likely to continue through September, access to water and pasture will become a serious concern from mid-august onwards. In southern zones of Somali region, there are indications that another crisis can be developing as thousands of livestock are already migrating out of the zones due to feed related stress. The situation is expected to worsen in southern Gode, Korahe, most parts of Warder and some parts of Fik and Dagahbur in the coming months. Although food aid is being distributed in pastoral areas (though delayed and irregular), there is also an urgent need to provide non-food assistance including nutritional support, livestock vaccination and treatment campaigns, restocking, water and sanitation, and intervention in human health. Belg production update Teams from the National Belg Pre-Harvest Needs Assessment completed their work by mid-july and preliminary findings indicate much improved production prospects in 2006 over the past several years. Belg rainfall (February to May) and related agricultural performance was much better than expected. Overall production assessment results for this year will be released in August following a compilation of the assessment findings. Short-cycle cereals have done well everywhere with the exception of some lowland, marginal areas, where poorly distributed rainfall reduced production or destroyed the crop completely. In the midlands and highlands of SNNPR, South Tigray, Amhara, East and West Hararge, Guji Arsi and Bale, production performance was good. Farmers in these areas are currently or soon will be harvesting barley and other short cycle crops. In the lowlands of Arsi, Bale, and East Hararghe Zones of Oromiya Region, areas bordering Somali Region, and lowlands of eastern Amhara region where farmers traditionally cultivate maize and sorghum during the belg rains, late onset and early termination negatively affected long cycle crops. The impacts of poor rains have been significant in the midlands and lowlands of East Shewa zone of Oromiya Region. Floods and hailstorms also damaged crops and impeded movements in some areas. Market analysis Cereal prices continued rising in June (from their record high levels) and remain significantly higher than the 2001 to 2005 average levels (or normal) for this time of year. As a result of these high prices, grain to livestock terms of trade is unfavorable for pastoralists. (See figures 1, 2 and 3). Despite reports of good belg performance and a good start to the meher season rains, prices have not yet shown any sign of stability or decrease implying that the current season s performance have not yet boosted the confidence of farmers to release their small stocks. Although prices of all cereals increased during the month, price rises in May and June were especially pronounced for mixed teff and wheat, which are staples in urban areas. Wholesale prices for teff and wheat in June have risen by about 40 percent and 36 percent in Addis Ababa, respectively, compared to same time last year. Maize prices in Addis Ababa have also increased by 18 percent compared to their 2001 to 2005 average levels. In addition to increasing and high level prices, staple food price volatility is becoming a major impediment to livelihood recovery and rehabilitation. As can be observed in Figure 1, prices in Addis Ababa market have been volatile since 1996 mainly due to unstable market conditions (poor market infrastructure, lack of information systems, and lack of risk management institutions). This volatility is seen in other traditional deficit and surplus producing areas of the country, but is particularly acute in pastoral areas, due to recurrent conflict and insecurity which limits access to markets. In this volatile and unstable environment, the poor or net consumers of these cereals face the highest risks and take the highest burden. Volatility in prices coupled with very high prices and low levels of rural income prevent poor households from obtaining adequate food during the hunger period. Retail price data from Save the Children/UK (SC-UK) shows that grain to livestock terms of trade are favoring crop growers to the disadvantage of pastoralists (Figure 3). The observed decline in maize per shoat terms of trade between December 2005 and June 2006 was a result of both increases in maize prices and a significant drop in the price of shoats due to lack of purchasing power in pastoral areas. In recent months, both cereal and livestock prices have generally increased in many markets, but the rise in cereal prices has been more rapid and significant. Similar price movements Page 3 of 5

were observed in eastern and southeastern pastoral markets (including southern zones of Somali Region and southern woredas of Borena Zone of Oromiya Region). Figure 1. Addis Ababa wholesale prices for selected staple cereals Figure 2. Real retail prices of white maize in Addis Ababa: 13-month trend and 2001-2005 monthly average Source: Data archives of FEWS NET/Ethiopia, and Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE). Graphics by FEWS NET/Ethiopia. Notes: 1. Prices are expressed in Ethiopian Birr per Quintal. 2. One Quintal = 100 kg; 1 Ethiopian Birr 12 US Cents. 3. Average prices (2001-2005) are deflated by their respective consumer price index values. Figure 3: Terms of Trade in Gode, Gode Zone of Somali Region: Quantity of Maize Per Shoats For most markets, cereal prices tend to increase sharply during the hunger season (June to August) and are expected to further increase at least up to September. This year recent increases exceeded the high levels of last year indicating that this year s hunger season will be difficult as staple food prices are already out of reach of the very poor households in many of rural areas (both pastorals and crop dependents). Because poor people spend much of their total budget on cereals, further escalations and fluctuations in cereal prices have a significant negative impact on their food security. Source: Data archives of SC-UK and FEWS NET. Graphics by FEWS NET. Notes: 1. Prices are expressed in Ethiopian Birr per Quintal. 2. One Quintal = 100 kg; 1 Ethiopian Birr 12 US Cents. Page 4 of 5 According to the preliminary results of the belg/gu season assessment, prices are particularly high and volatile in the conflict (and insecure) and flood affected areas where supplies of grains and food aid are already very limited due to inaccessible transport routes. Close monitoring of prices continue to be an utmost importance in evaluating the food security status of the poor in the coming months. In the short run, efforts by the government to minimize staple food price increases and market volatility should be carefully considered. Moreover, government actions that could exacerbate the situation such as devaluation, local purchase of food aid, another fuel price hike, etc. should be scrutinized and in some cases postponed to minimize the impact on staple food prices during the hunger season.

Weather update The main kiremt rainy season (June to September) normally starts in June and peaks towards the end of July in all meher growing areas of the country. This is also the time when excessive rainfall results in flooding in many areas of the country. This year, the onset of meher rain was normal in many areas although minor delays were reported in the drought-prone eastern half of the country. The kiremt rains intensified from the second dekad of June, covering nearly all crop dependent areas of the west and the drought prone eastern half of Tigray. The whole western half and northeastern crop dependent areas of the country received normal to above-normal precipitation in the first dekad of July, with some areas reporting localized flooding and hailstorms with no serious damage on crops. Rainfall amounts were below normal during the second dekad of July in much of western half but eastern highland areas along the rift valley enjoyed normal to above normal rains. (See figure 4). According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MoARD) field level reports, moisture conditions improved significantly in all crop dependent areas of the country in July, but Afar Region remained very dry with the exception of few days of rains during the last dekad of July. Pasture and water availability in the southern and southeastern lowlands in Borena of the Oromiya Region and southern parts of Somali Region remains tenuous. These areas normally receive little or no rain during the kiremt rainy season and were seasonably dry during late June and July. During this time of the year, farmers are engaged in various agricultural activities including harvesting some short cycle and irrigated belg crops, planting meher crops and maintaining already planted crops while prepare land for typical meher crops, especially teff and wheat, that will be extensively planted during late July and in August. Good rainfall distribution since April has made this year one of the wettest years in recent times. According to the forecast by the National Meteorological Agency (NMA), normal to above normal rainfall is expected in all cropdependent areas of Ethiopia for the July August period except some parts of northeastern highlands. So far there had also not been reports of serious damages as a result of pests and no serious shortage of seeds, fertilizers or other inputs reported. As July is the mid point of the kiremt rainy season, it is too early to make production estimates for the meher season. However, if good agricultural and climatic conditions continue, with good input provision, this year s meher season production will be far better than the previous three consecutive year s production, which were all above averages. Figure 4. Satellite estimated rainfall compared to long-term average (last dekad of June and first two dekads of July 2006) June 21 30 July 1-10 July 11-20 Difference from Average Source: NOAA Rainfall Image. Produced By: USGS-EROS Data Center Page 5 of 5