FortisBC Resource Planning Community Stakeholder Workshop Long Term Resource Planning October 2015
Workshop Objectives 1. Obtain feedback on Long Term Resource Planning issues 2. Provide a better understanding of the energy planning environment 3. Seek input on load scenarios and resource options 4. Raise awareness of our energy conservation and transportation programs, local community initiatives, integrated energy solutions and potential infrastructure projects 5. Identify community opportunities and concerns 2
FortisBC Natural Gas, Electricity and Propane Approximately 1.1 million customers 22% of energy consumed in B.C. Serve 135 communities More than 2,200 employees Own and operate 2 LNG facilities Own 4 generating facilities (225 MW capacity) Operate and maintain 5 third-party generating facilities (1,282 MW capacity) 3
FortisBC Shared Service Territory 4
FortisBC Community Engagement 5
Long Term Resource Planning
Long-Term Resource Planning Process What resources must FortisBC have in place to supply customers energy needs safely, reliably and cost-effectively over the next 20 years? Examine the Planning Environment Forecast Energy Needs Clean Energy Act B.C. Utilities Act Section 44.1 BCUC Resource Planning Guidelines Directives and Orders Efficiency and Conservation Potential Options for Supply and System Growth and Sustainment Stakeholder consultation Portfolio Analysis Action Plan 7
Natural Gas vs. Electric Resource Planning $ $ 8
Planning Environment Factors that influence long term planning analysis and decisions Policy Environment Technology Competition Energy Regulation Customers Supply Economy 9
Examples of Planning Uncertainty What elements may change throughout the planning horizon? Technology New end-use technologies Heat pumps reduce gas use, increase electricity use Higher efficiency appliances and industrial processes Electric vehicles present potential new electricity load Supply Shifting supply environment Substantial new domestic supplies of natural gas Impacts to natural gas demand from LNG New sources of renewable electricity supply Customers Customers interacting differently with the energy grid Distributed generation (e.g. localized solar and geothermal) Producing and choosing renewable natural gas (RNG) 10
Energy Efficiency and Conservation 2016 Plan 2016 Plan Natural Gas Electricity Total Number of Programs Expenditures (up to) Annual Energy Savings 30+ 20 50+ $35.8 million $7.5 million $43 million 1,940,000 GJ 27,200 MWh 2,038,000 GJ or 565,200 MWh Annual GHG Reductions 100,900 tonnes 100,900 tonnes
Electricity Resource Planning
Long Term Electric Resource Plan FortisBC submitted the last Long Term Resource Plan to the BCUC in June 2011 BCUC accepted the plan in August 2012 FortisBC plans to submit the next one in June 2016 13
Customer Base (Number of Customers) Commercial 9.7%
Customer Base (GWh) Commercial 9.7%
Wholesale Customers Commercial 9.7%
Energy Consumption (Single Family Dwelling) Typical consumption for a FortisBC electriconly single family dwelling is 20,800 kwh per year *Appliances include refrigerators, freezers, ranges, clothes washers, and electric dryers. 17
Energy vs. Capacity Energy the electricity produced or used over a period of time (e.g. a year) is analogous to an Odometer reading usually measured in kwh and GWh Capacity the instantaneous system electricity demand at any given time is analogous to a snapshot Speedometer reading usually measured in MW 18
Energy Load-Resource Balance 19
Capacity Load Resource Balance 20
Monthly Capacity Load-Resource Balance (2025) 21
Monthly Capacity Load-Resource Balance (2035) 22
FortisBC Generation Resources Corra Linn Lower Bonnington Brilliant Upper Bonnington South Slocan Waneta Expansion
Overview of FBC DSM Objective: cost-effective energy savings 24
Supply-Side Resource Types FBC Resource Options Baseload (e.g. biomass, geothermal, CCGT) Intermittent (e.g. solar, wind, run-of-river hydro) Peaking (e.g. SCGT, PSH) 25
Resource Unit Cost Summary Resource Option Type Unit Energy Cost ($/MWh) Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) Baseload $67 - $86 Unit Capacity Cost ($kw-yr) Wood-based Biomass Baseload $120 - $306 Biogas Baseload $63 - $166 Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) Baseload $132 - $282 Geothermal Baseload $70 - $170 Solar (utility-scale PV) Intermittent $171 - $279 Onshore Wind Intermittent $81 - $301 Run-of-River Hydro Intermittent $94 - $200 Pumped Storage Hydro (PSH) Peaking $130 - $688 Simple Cycle Gas Turbine (SCGT)** Peaking $79 - $159 ** Excludes fuel cost 26
Electricity Market Price Forecasts 27
Portfolio Evaluation Criteria Resource Options Evaluation 1: Financial UEC & UCC Wheeling & Losses adjustments Other adjustments 2: Environmental Environmental attributes Carbon footprint 3: Resource Gap Resource Type Size Resource Type Timing Resource Type Energy and Capacity profile 4: Regulatory Utilities Commission Act requirements Clean Energy Act requirements 5: Risk Project Type or Resource Risk assessment 28
Potential Future Transmission Projects Line reconductor Tx addition Line reconductor Tx addition Tx addition Tx addition 29
Natural Gas Resource Planning
2014 Long Term Resource Plan FortisBC Energy Utilities submitted the Long Term Resource Plan (LTRP) to the BCUC in March 2014 LTRP was accepted by the BCUC in 2015 Next LTRP to be submitted to the BCUC mid 2017 31
Units of Natural Gas Gigajoule (GJ), terajoule (TJ) and petajoule (PJ) 1 GJ = approx. the energy in a BBQ propane tank 1 TJ = 1,000 GJ 1 PJ = 1,000,000 GJ A large grocery store uses roughly 1 TJ A large mill or mine uses roughly 1-2 PJ Annual FortisBC throughput is 204 PJ The typical residential gas customer in FortisBC Interior uses approx. 76 GJ/year Water Heater 16 GJ Cooking 2.5 GJ Fireplace 13 GJ Furnace 45.5 GJ 32
Customer Base & Demand Profile Customer Base by Sector Residential 90.2% Industrial 0.1% Commercial 9.7% Annual Demand by Sector Residential 38% Commercial 28% Industrial 34% 33
TJ Annual Natural Gas Demand All regions 220,000 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2033 ---- Scenario Demand Scenario Demand after EEC Reference Case Low Case High Case 34
Annual Interior Natural Gas Demand Whistler 1% Lower Mainland 59% Vancouver Island 10% North Interior 16% South Interior 14% 35
TJ Annual Natural Gas Demand Including natural gas for transportation (NGT) 300,000 280,000 260,000 240,000 220,000 200,000 180,000 160,000 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2033 Reference Low Case High Case 36
TJ Potential Annual Natural Gas Demand Including NGT and potential large industrial customer 400,000 360,000 320,000 280,000 240,000 200,000 160,000 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2033 Ref + NGT Low + NGT High + NGT Ref + NGT + Woodfibre High + NGT + Woodfibre 37
TJ Peak Demand FEU system-wide Peak Demand = Core Heat Sensitive Load + Industrial Maximum Load 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,450 1,400 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 38
Daily Demand (TJ/d) Peak Demand Regional: Interior transmission system 350 2012 Reference 2012 High 340 2012 Low 2012 Current Capacity 330 2012 Reference + Ref NGT:CNG 320 310 300 290 Winter Season 39
FortisBC Interior Transmission System Savona Pipeline loop (potential) KAMLOOPS Peak-shaving LNG (potential) An additional system resource may be required to meet demand growth VERNON 12 High demand growth area Kingsvale KELOWNA 12 141 TJ/d PENTICTON Pipeline loop (potential) NELSON Hedley 10 16 OLIVER Y Midway 10 Trail 12 Kit-A YAHK Kit-B 24 Compressor addition (potential) 40
FortisBC Interior Transmission System Savona Pipeline loop (potential) KAMLOOPS Peak-shaving LNG (potential) An additional system resource may be required to meet demand growth Kingsvale VERNON KELOWNA 12 High demand growth area 12 Hedley 141 TJ/d 10 Potential reinforcement for transportation service 16 PENTICTON OLIVER Y Pipeline loop (potential) Midway 10 24 Trail NELSON 12 Compressor addition (potential) Kit-B Kit-A YAHK 41
Potential Gas Demand - PNW PNW Accelerated Demand Peak Day Resource/Demand Balance 42
The Future. We re Ready.
Interactive Session: Future Planning Scenarios
Discussion Agenda and Objectives 1. The Changing Energy Environment 2. Seek input on future load growth scenarios: Identifying key drivers: Market, customers, technologies, policy, legislation, regulation Proposed vs. your experiences? What are we missing? Ranking drivers: which will have the largest impact? 3. Solar: Where should FBC s involvement be? 4. Seek input on FortisBC s energy resource options: Energy vs. Capacity Available resources 5. Natural Gas load growth 6. Open discussion 45
Changing Energy Environment 46 46
Changing Energy Environment 47
Changing Energy Environment 48
Changing Energy Environment 49
Load Forecast Scenarios What are the future states of the world? e.g. BC energy policy promoting electrification What are your energy needs and priorities? What are the potential drivers leading to higher or lower load growth scenarios? Distributed generation Electric vehicles Fuel switching NGV Climate change Industrial demand Others? 50
Consideration of Solar Energy Where should FBC s involvement be? Residential rooftop? Commercial rooftop? Community solar? Utility-scale? What is the degree of interest in community solar? What are the reasons for interest or lack thereof? How much would customers pay for electricity from solar? 51
Energy Resources Available to FortisBC Natural Gas Electricity Natural gas either piped or liquefied Renewable natural gas (RNG) or biogas Hydro Solar Wind Geothermal Biomass Batteries Natural gas-fired electricity Market purchases Demand response Both Energy efficiency and conservation 52
Wrap Up and Next Steps
Recap of Feedback Anything else? 54
Next Steps Your inputs are used in our planning processes: Identifying uncertainties and potential demand drivers Developing load forecast scenarios Assessing resources to meet new energy demand Developing and offering new energy services such as new Energy Efficiency and Conservation programs Informing our engagement with policy makers Ongoing LTRP Stakeholder Consultations Fall 2016 irp@fortisbc.com 55
Appendix: Extra Slides
Gas Supply Portfolio Planning On-system storage Third party storage Market hub Transmission pipeline 57
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Lower Gas Prices Providing Opportunities Tilbury LNG expansion $400 Million, completed 2016 Proprietary and Confidential 59
Tilbury LNG Expansion, Delta, BC Meets growing demand for natural gas for transportation and remote communities $400-million expansion Adds 34,000 gigajoules per day of liquefaction capacity Adds 1.1 million gigajoules of liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage Powered by electric drives Air-cooled, eliminating the need for cooling water 60
Tilbury LNG Expansion Benefits: Cheaper: Natural gas fuel costs have historically been 25 to 40 per cent less than diesel. Cleaner: Greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by 20 to 30 per cent compared to diesel. Benefits for British Columbians: Natural gas for transportation helps achieve BC s energy objectives defined under the Clean Energy Act. Benefits for FortisBC Customers: Better year-round utilization of FortisBC s infrastructure will help keep natural gas delivery rates stable for all customers 61
Woodfibre LNG Small scale LNG processing and export facility Approx. 2.1 million tones of LNG per year Proprietary and Confidential 62
Woodfibre LNG Capacity Up to 290 MMcfd In-service date 2017-2018 Effect on FEU Add firm transportation service requirement (~86,000 TJ annually) Need to reinforce existing system with pipeline looping and add compression Impact to FEU customers More throughput on FEU system = downward pressure on natural gas delivery costs for all customers 63
Renewable Natural Gas Renewable natural gas is a carbon neutral energy source, produced right here in BC. Creates opportunities to develop new industry and recycle organic waste (agriculture, landfill, sewage). 6 projects approved (others in negotiations). 6500 Residential Customers 150 Commercial Customers 100,000+ GJs/Year
Waneta Expansion Project $900 Million, 335 MW completion 2015
Example: EcoSage Project Partnership with the Penticton Indian Band Eight super-efficient homes built on reserve in 2013 7 EnerGuide 88-Rated 1 Passive House Certification 66
Long-Term Load Forecasting 3 step process: Base Forecast As used for the 2016 PBR Update Provides a common starting point Monte Carlo Business as usual but incorporates recent volatility for several measures Scenarios All the new factors not part of business as usual Demand Base (PBR) Scenarios Monte Carlo (business as usual) Time 67