The Central Role of Agriculture in Myanmar s Economic Development Duncan Boughton, Professor, International Development, MSU Ben Belton, Assistant Professor, International Development, MSU Steven Radelet, Georgetown University Yezin Agricultural University, December 12, 2016
Outline Introducing each other Why is economic growth important? Why is agriculture important for growth? What is agricultural transformation? An example from Myanmar YAU graduates as change agents Why wearing a motorbike helmet is essential to your contribution to Myanmar s development
Getting to know each other.. Do your parents farm? Do you think of yourself as a future leader in the workplace or community? Do you know what job or occupation you want to pursue when you graduate from YAU? How many of you want to be farmers? Do you have a plan to achieve that job or occupation? Do you where a helmet when you are on a motorcycle off campus (on a public road or highway)? Do you where a helmet when you are on a motorcycle on campus?
Why is Economic Growth Important? Development is all about creating opportunities, and building people s capacities to take advantage of those opportunities. Economic growth helps countries make progress in both of these areas. Economic growth is both an increase in production, and an increase in incomes. Economic growth means more jobs and higher income for individuals, families, and society. Economic growth is perhaps the single most powerful engine for broad-based development progress: growth leads to gains in health, education, poverty reduction and other dimensions of development. These relationships go both ways. The increases in income allow families and societies to eat more and better food, put more of their children in school, keep their families healthy, build better schools and clinics, invest in roads and communications facilities, and build more prosperous lives. 4
Why is Sustainable Growth so Important? Growth must be sustained over years, decades, and generations in order to translate into broad-based development. Even modest growth if sustained can be a powerful engine for change. For example, with growth of 3% per capita, average income doubles every 23 years (basically every generation). Short spurts of growth (say, from exploiting natural resources for a few years) do not lead to long-term development. For growth to be sustained: Governments must create stability and legitimacy, and invest in infrastructure and in people. Individuals and businesses must believe that their own investments will pay off. Natural resources must be managed to last a long time. 5
Why is Inclusive Growth so important? What is inclusive growth? Inclusive growth is economic growth that includes the majority of a country s population. Inclusive growth creates new income opportunities for as many people as possible, especially the poor, minority groups, women, and isolated rural populations. Typically accompanied by broad-based (inclusive) investments in education, health, and infrastructure, alongside improvements in inclusive governance (with wide participation of, and consultation with, all groups in society). Why is inclusive growth important? Creates an atmosphere of justice and fairness. Builds the political legitimacy of the government. Supports peace and reconciliation. Encourages investment and cooperation, which helps to sustain growth over time. Inclusive growth is especially important in conflict and postconflict environments. 6
Why is Agriculture Central to Economic Development? Almost all developing countries that have achieved sustained and inclusive growth began with a strong focus on agriculture. Growth in agriculture: Creates higher incomes for the rural poor (therefore, it is highly inclusive). Reduces poverty rapidly. Produces more food and related products for the entire country. Eventually, allows some workers to shift from agriculture to processing and manufacturing. As agricultural productivity grows, fewer workers can produce more food, so some workers shift to processing, manufacturing, services, other activities. A developing economy cannot diversify into other activities without first increasing agricultural productivity. 7
Agriculture and Comparative Advantage Agriculture makes particular sense in countries with abundant fertile land and water (like Myanmar). These attributes give Myanmar a comparative advantage in agriculture: that is, it has a big advantage in producing agricultural goods compared to other goods (e.g., industrial goods). Export of agricultural products can be an important source of foreign exchange to pay for imported goods that Myanmar does not have a comparative advantage in (e.g., aeroplanes) Countries that have ignored this kind of comparative advantage (ignored agriculture) and tried to move too quickly to into industry have failed. Countries that have focused on their comparative advantage and used it fully have typically experienced more sustained and inclusive growth. 8
As growth proceeds, production shifts to manufacturing and services Known as the structural transformation. The share of agriculture in total production (GDP) falls, while the share of manufacturing (including processing) and services rise. But in successful countries, during this process, agricultural production continues to grow. When the share of agriculture in GDP is falling, it does not mean that agriculture production is falling. It just means that manufacturing (and services) are growing faster. For example, in Thailand, since 1970: Agriculture as a share of GDP has fallen from 25% to 10%. At the same time, agricultural production has more than tripled. (Note that processing of agricultural goods is part of manufacturing). 9
Thailand: Agriculture and Manufacturing (shares of GDP) 35 30 Share of GDP (%) 25 20 15 10 5 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Agriculture, value added Manufacturing, value added Note: Manufacturing includes agricultural processing and certain agricultural-related businesses 10
Thailand: Agricultural Production (total value added, constant prices) constant prices, 1970 = 100 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Agriculture, value added (1970=100) 11
What is agricultural transformation? YESTERDAY TOMORROW??
Transformation pathways. From subsistence farmer to entrepreneur (business person) Access to reliable, high value markets Physical access (roads, secure storage, cold storage) Quality requirements, SPS and traceability Agro-processing to avoid perishable produce gluts Access to irrigation and land improvement Access to information on market prices and production techniques Information on profitable enterprises and management practices Aquaculture, fruits and vegetables, livestock and dairy, Access to production inputs and services Market and ecology suited varieties or breeds Fertilizers, pesticides, feeds, veterinary services and mechanization Access to finance Seasonal inputs, marketing credit and equipment
Agricultural transformation drives transformation of the rural economy? Rural transformation refers to the process of growth and diversification of the rural economy, resulting in higher incomes from both farm and off-farm employment A large share of increased smallholder farm incomes are typically spent in the local economy, spurring growth in the rural non-farm economy (RNFE) The stronger the synergies between growth in the farm and growth in the non-farm components over time the more sustainable the transformation Public policies and investments have the potential to foster or hinder this virtual growth cycle -> hence need to know what is actually happening on the ground
Myanmar Aquaculture Agriculture Survey (MAAS) Methodology Purposively selected 2 clusters of aquaculture and agriculture village tracts for comparison, based on spatial concentration of ponds and prevailing crop farming systems Randomly selected enumerations areas and households to represent entire populations of both clusters (including non-farm households) Total sample = 1102 HHs in 40 village tracts, representing 37,390 HH
Survey locations
Rapidly accelerating rural-urban migration post-2010 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Urban Rural 0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2005 2008 2010 2012 2014 The cumulative share of current migrants by year (%) 16% of HH have migrants Average migrant age 20 55:45 male/female split 70% employed in manufacturing 8% international Some rural-rural migration from remoter areas for fulltime agricultural work (40% of permanent workers in aquaculture cluster) 80% of HH with migrants receive remittances
Real wage increases Real daily wages (MMK) 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 +8% +32% Main impact of migration is on rural labour supply and wage rates 500 0 2011 2013 2016 Average real daily wage for male agricultural labour (2011-2013)
Labor shortages & rising wages driving mechanization Cumulative number of machines purchased 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Surface-water Pump 2WT Thresher 4WT Combine 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Cumulative purchases of agricultural machinery, 1990-2015
Adoption supported by rental services Machine Use for Land Preparation Machine Use for Harvesting % of households using machinery 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Own Rented in Other 2006 2011 2016 Own Rented in Other 2006 2011 2016
Sources of credit diversifying % of villages with access 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2011 2016 Access to credit improving due to MFIs and cooperatives Average rates of interest paid on informal and semiformal loans fell from 72% in 2011 to 60% in 2016. Very few output-tied agricultural loans Share of villages with credit access by source (2011-2016)
Rapid growth of non-farm enterprise Mean businesses/village 20 15 10 5 0 +229% Motor transport +52% Shops +46% 2011 2016 Personal services +36% Food services Crafts - 45% - 56% Agricultural trade Change in average number of businesses per village, 2011-2016 From 2011-2016, motor vehicles replaced boats as main mode of transport: average journey times to fell 20-30%. Increasing mobility: 44% of workers in fulltime employment travel beyond local area but remain resident Village stores have attained almost total ubiquity (96% of villages)
Share of households 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 47 57 67 81 77 22 21 18 12 31 14 23 15 11 5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Off-farm employment plays a major role in livelihoods for households in all income and landholdings groups Farm Only Off-farm Only Farm & Off-farm Household participation in farm and off-farm employment
Agriculture still the major source of primary employment Non-farm occupations, 29% Agri-labor, 29% Share of primary employment, by type Own farm, 42% Agriculture directly provides >70% of primary employment (plus more in related value chains) Non-farm employment, and off-farm agricultural work, contribute similar shares of primary employment
Incipient agricultural intensification 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Main paddy crop (% of HH reporting) 24 28 31 76 72 69 2006 2011 2016 Monsoon Dry season 80 60 40 20 0 % of paddy farms applying herbicide 11 13 Monsoon 22 42 55 70 Dry season 2006 2011 2016 40 30 20 % of HH planting improved rice variety 30 20 18 19 16 37 80 60 40 46 Paddy yield (baskets/acre) 70 66 48 47 74 10 20 0 Monsoon Dry season 2006 2011 2016 0 Monsoon 2006 2011 2016 Dry season
Monsoon paddy: median gross margin 130,000 kyat / acre 500000 400000 Household ID Gross margins (monsoon paddy) 300000 200000 Gross margins in Myanmar Kyat 100000 0-100000 -200000 1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 103 109 115 121 127 133 139 145 151 157 163 169 175 181 187 193 199 205 211 217 223 229 235 241-300000 -400000-500000
Dry season paddy median gross margin 175,000 kyat/acre 600000 Gross margins in Myanmar Kyat 500000 400000 300000 200000 Household ID Gross margins (Dry season paddy) 100000 0-100000 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 100 103 106 109 112 115 118-200000 -300000-400000
Green gram median gross margin: 260,000 kyat per acre 1000000 800000 Household ID Gross margins (Green gram) 600000 Gross margins in Myanmar Kyat 400000 200000 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79-200000 -400000
Conclusions Rapid transformation of the RNFE taking place close to Yangon, driven by migration Migration driven by urban growth & industrialization post 2012 Leading to: Labor shortages, rising wages mechanization of agriculture, growth of RNFE Growth of RNFE, supported by: Greater mobility (transport services), deeper market integration (labour, inputs, outputs), improving access to and terms of credit Mechanization supported by: Expansion of formal finance, falling machine costs, thriving rental markets, scale neutrality
Conclusions Agricultural productivity and farm profitability appears to be growing more slowly than RNFE in the case study area Indicates need for more effective agricultural public investments and policies to assure sustainable rural economic growth dynamic, for example: Access to improved varieties and information on improved crop management practices Access to irrigation for expanded dry season crop production Access to improved financial services for seasonal and medium-term credit as well as for savings New government agricultural policy and development strategy aims to improve profitability of farming YAU graduates have a key role as change agents (if you wear a motorbike helmet AT ALL TIMES)
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