Socio-economic Indicators for Vulnerability Assessment in the Arab Region Tarek Sadek Water Resources Section Sustainable Development & Productivity Division-ESCWA
Presentation outline Concepts of vulnerability and development of socio economic scenarios Socio-economic vulnerability indicators Concluding remarks
Concepts of Vulnerability The characteristics of a person or a group in terms of their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from a natural hazard (Blaikie et al., 1994). A multi-layered and multi-dimensional social space defined by determinate political, economic and institutional capabilities of people in specific places at specific times (Watts and Bohle, 1993).
Typology of Vulnerability A range of vulnerability issues can be identified: Sub-regional vulnerability e.g. areas prone to flooding, droughts, coastal vs. inland, etc. Sectoral vulnerability e.g. energy infrastructure, manufacturing and insurance industries, tourism, transport, etc. Environmental vulnerability e.g. loss of biodiversity, inefficient ecosystem services, etc. Social vulnerability e.g. vulnerable social groups (based on age, gender, income, mobility, health, etc.) Economic vulnerability e.g. cost of damage, income loss, infrastructure, increased cost for adaptation, etc.
Climate Vulnerability = Biophysical Vulnerability + Social Vulnerability GEO-4 (UNEP 2007) Biophysical Vulnerability = the degree to which a [physical] system is unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change IPCC (Physical) RISK = HAZARD x VULNERABILITY (climate) x (exposure) Social Vulnerability = measure of a society to adapt to hazards (Social) VULNERABILITY = RISK ADAPTATION (i.e. the residual impact after adaptation measures are implemented) There is a need to additionally incorporate the ability of economic systems and eco-systems to adapt to CC risks.
(Intensity and duration of events) Environmental Hazards RISK Social Vulnerability (Socio-demographic characteristics; livelihood and diversity; poverty status) (Income loss, employment in agriculture, rural development, etc.) Economic Vulnerability Risk of being affected by climate change impacts = Environmental hazards + Vulnerable population +Economic costs Adopted from Adamo, 2008
Key Components of Social Vulnerability Adaptive Capacity ability to develop long-term options Coping range ability to generate short-term solutions Mimi, 2009
Economic Dimension There is a need for new approaches to coupling economic and climate models to: Carry out reliable cost assessments Improve uncertainties with benefit estimates. A set of economic indicators should be developed to measure market impacts in a climate change context, e.g., GDP categorized by gender, age, health, mobility, etc. of people in vulnerable areas Income and employment indicators
Why do we need to consider socio-economic scenarios? To characterise the demographic, socioeconomic and technological driving forces underlying anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions which cause climate change; and; To characterise the sensitivity, adaptive capacity and vulnerability of social and economic systems in relation to climate change (Carter et al., 2001).
IPCC Socio-economic Indicators The IPCC has published a set of socioeconomic baseline statistics for 195 countries that are representative of the early to mid 1990s. The data was collated from a variety of sources, such as the World Bank, UNEP and FAO They comprise a range of factors organised into seven categories (IPCC, 1998).
IPCC Socio-economic Indicators 1. Population and human development: total population, current and projected (2025) population density, total urban population, urban population in coastal cities. 2. Economic Conditions: GDP per capita, GDP from agriculture, from industry and from services, GDP annual growth rate. 3. Land cover/land use: total land area, arable and permanent cropland, permanent pasture, forest and woodland, other land.
IPCC Socio-economic Indicators (cont d) 4. Water: water resources per capita, annual withdrawals for domestic, industrial and agricultural use. 5. Agriculture/food: irrigated land, agricultural labour force, total labour force, livestock. 6. Energy: total commercial energy consumption, traditional fuel consumption, commercial hydroelectric consumption. 7. Biodiversity: known and endemic mammal, bird and plant species.
Sustainable Development Indicator Framework (LAS-ESCWA-UNEP/ROWA, 2007) 58 Indicators were developed and categorized under 4 main pillars (Social, Economic, Environmental and Institutional) by the UN-CSD in 2001. An Arab process was developed for adopting these indicators in coordination with the Arab countries and was led by LAS, ESCWA and UNEP/ROWA in 2007 A priority list of 14 themes was agreed upon: Poverty, Governance, Heath, Education, Demographics, Peace and Security, Atmosphere, Agricultural Land, Coastal and Marine Environment, Water, Biodiversity, Economic Development, Global Partnership and Consumption and Production Patterns
Arab SD Indicators - Poverty Sub-Theme Income poverty Income inequality Sanitation Indicator Percent of Population Living Below National Poverty Line Proportion of population below International Poverty Line ($1 and/or $2) Percentage of population with Income loss due to climate change impacts Ratio of share in national income of highest to lowest quintile Proportion of population with access to improved sanitation, urban and rural Drinking Water Access to energy Living Conditions Proportion of Population with Access to Safe Drinking Water Share of households without access to electricity or commercial energy Proportion of population living in slums
Arab SD Indicators - Health Sub-Theme Mortality Health Care Delivery Nutritional Status Health status and risks Indicator Mortality Rate Under 5 Year Old Life expectancy at Birth Healthy life years expectancies Percent of Population with Access to Primary Health Care Facilities Immunization Against Infectious Childhood Diseases Mortality and injury rate due to climate change impacts Contraceptive Prevalence Rate Nutritional Status of Children (Percentage of underweight and obese children) Smoking prevalence Prevalence of mental health problems (Suicide rates as proxy) Prevalence of major diseases such as HIV/AIDS, Malaria, Tuberculosis
Arab SD Indicators - Demographics Sub-Theme Indicator Population Growth Rate, rural and urban Population change Percentage of population potentially affected by climate change impacts Percent of rural population from total Total fertility rate (NC) Dependency Ratio (Young and Old) Vulnerability to Natural Hazards Percentage of population living in disaster prone areas, by type of natural disaster
Arab SD Indicators Economic Development Sub-Theme Macroeconomic performance GDP per capita Investment Share in GDP Indicators Sustainable Public Finance Employment Information and Communication Technologies Tourism Net Savings Rate Environmental cost Degradation Inflation Debt to GNP ratio Labor productivity by sector Employment rate, disaggregated by sex Employment Status, by sex (NC) Unit labor costs By sector (NC) Cost of damage due to climate change as a percentage of GDP Internet users per 100 population Fixed Telephone lines and cellular subscribers per 100 population Personal computer per 100 population [could be deleted, depending on the outcome of revision on MDG indicators] Tourism contribution to GDP and employment
Millennium Development Goals (MDG s) Indicators MDG s indicators could also be adopted to develop CC VA indicators to achieve sustainable development in the Arab region. It should be noted that most CC projections are targeting years beyond the MDG s time horizon of 2015 (i.e. 2050, 2099, etc.). So we need to structure thinking how the MDG s related indicators can be utilized as means to assess CC socio-economic impacts.
Example: Migration-Environment Scenarios The susceptibility to migrate in relation to environmental change A. Migration at less advanced stages of gradual environmental change The impact of migration on the environment E. Migrations impact of the environment in areas of destination Interactions between migration, environmental change, human security and conflict G. Human security challenges of environmental change and migration B. Migration at advanced stages of gradual environmental change C. Migration due to extreme environmental events D. Migration due to large-scale development and land conservation F. Migration s impact on the environment in areas of origin H. Conflict potential of environmental change and migration International Organization for Migration, 2007
Socio-economic Vulnerability Indicators Sea Water Rise People affected (people live in hazard zones and affected by rising seawater levels). Capital (market) value of infrastructures that could be lost (e.g. coastal power and oil installations, tourism resorts, building, etc.) Areas of fertile agricultural land that would be inundated. Area of wetlands that would be lost due to sea water rise People at risk and potential adaptation costs for protection. Etc.
Socio-economic Vulnerability indicators Drought Rural community and farmers affected Agricultural land area affected Crop loss Yield reduction Income loss Higher consumer prices Etc.
Concluding Remarks Socio-economic VA should be investigating different dimensions of vulnerability such as time scale (short, medium and long term), focus (e.g. food security, health, economic activity) and geographical distribution (regional, sub-regional, national, local, etc.) Costing methodologies need to be developed for valuing the potential impacts of climate change and for comparing these to cost of adaptation. There is a need for socio-economic sub-regional scoping studies and national sectoral assessments.
Concluding Remarks (cont d) The current information on the magnitude and spatial distribution of socio-economic impacts is poor and need to be developed under different scenarios in the Arab region. Little integration currently exists among water and environmental institutions, the key actors dealing with CC, and other socio-economic sectors. Specific indicators for CC socio-economic vulnerability need to be adopted and incorporated into sustainable development policies and plans (e.g. IPCC, SD and MDG s indicators)