Role of bioenergy and transport biofuels in energy and climate scenarios Dr. Paolo Frankl Head, Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency Biofuture Platform All-Member Meeting, IRENA Headquarters - Abu Dhabi, 19 January 217
Generation (TWh) Biomass forms part of a portfolio of renewable options for the power sector Global power generation from bioenergy 4 3 Baseline Forecast 2DS 6% 5% 4% 2 3% 1 2% 1% % 25 21 215 22 23 (2DS) 25 (2DS) Bioenergy baseline and forecast Bioenergy (2DS) Biomass share of non-hydro renewable generation Biomass electricity generation needs to more than triple over 215-3 to keep on track with 2DS needs. However, its share of non-hydro generation is on a downward trend due to faster growth of onshore wind and solar PV.
Accelerated growth is required to meet climate change objectives for transport biofuels Global biofuels production and medium-term forecast compared with current IEA 2DS scenario requirements A significant advanced biofuels contribution, alongside improved fuel economy and EV rollout, is central to decarbonisation of the transport sector. OECD/IEA 215
Production (billion litres) Advanced biofuels anticipated to scale up from current production levels 3. 2.5 Advanced biofuels production forecast, 215-21 Announced advanced renewable diesel 2. 1.5 1..5. 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 Announced advanced ethanol Operational and underconstruction advanced renewable diesel Operational and underconstruction advanced ethanol Advanced biofuels are needed in the longer term to sustainably reduce the overall carbon footprint of the transport sector, but the industry remains in an early stage of development.
Significant cost reduction potential identified for cellulosic ethanol Cellulosic ethanol cost reduction potential Industry expansion is anticipated to facilitate improved competiveness of cellulosic ethanol, but more widespread policy support is needed to enable cost reduction potential.
Bioenergy is central to the long-term decarbonisation of the energy system Energy system in 25 Energy within system the IEA s in 2142 degree scenario (2DS) Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) 216. In the IEA 2DS biomass and waste become the principal primary energy source in 25
GtCO 2 -eq The key transport decarbonisation challenge lies in non-oecd countries OECD and non-oecd WTW GHG emissions from the 6DS to the 2DS 12 1 8 6 4 2 OECD 21 22 23 24 25 6DS 4DS 2DS 12 1 8 6 4 2 Non-OECD 21 22 23 24 25 6DS 4DS 2DS Non-urban vehicle efficiency Urban vehicle efficiency Non-urban lowcarbon fuels Urban lowcarbon fuels Non-urban avoid/shift Urban avoid/shift Meeting the 2DS requires ambitious policies across all transport modes, with roles for a range of low carbon fuels, vehicle efficiency improvements and modal shifts.
EJ Transport biofuels play an important role in the 2DS Transport fuel demand comparison 215 with 2DS and 4Ds in 25 18 16 Other 14 12 Hydrogen 1 8 Natural gas 6 Electricity 4 2 Biofuels 2DS 215 25 4DS Liquid fuels from fossil energy A significantly increased biofuels share is essential to move towards a 2DS in the transport sector.
Biofuels have a role to play across both passenger and freight transport Fuel shares in 25 for passenger and freight modes by scenario Passenger 2DS Freight 2DS Air Rail Buses, minibuses Large cars Small, medium cars 2-, 3- wheelers Shipping Rail HFTs MFTs LCVs 3-wheelers 1 EJ 2 3 1 EJ 2 3 Fossil fuel products 1st generation biofuels 2nd generation biofuels Natural gas Electricity Hydrogen Other Conventional, and to a greater extent advanced, biofuels make key contributions within the 2DS by 25. Especially in aviation and heavy duty road freight transport.
Commercialisation of a range of advanced biofuels needed by the 2DS Urban and non-urban contribution of fossil fuels alternatives within the 2DS 25 2DS urban 25 2DS non-urban 2 2 15 15 EJ EJ 1 1 5 5 21 25 21 25 Ethanol Advanced ethanol Biodiesel Advanced biodiesel Biogas Aviation biofuels Shipping biofuels Electricity Hydrogen Electrified transport is crucial for urban transportation in 25 within the 2DS, while non-urban mobility requires a range of biofuel solutions.
Concluding remarks Bioenergy is an essential component of long-term low-c scenarios Both conventional and advanced biofuels have a key role to play in the IEA s 2DS for the transport sector However, disconnect between current rates of market development and deployment needed within 2DS Important recent technology progress in advanced biofuels, but still a minor fraction of fuel supply in the medium-term Enhanced policy support is required in order to enable industry expansion and deliver lower investment and production costs The IEA is updating its Technology Roadmap on Bioenergy and stands ready to collaborate with the Biofuture platform.